BRUMBIESThe Super Rugby Australia play off takes place in Canberra on Saturday as the Brumbies and the Force do battle for the right to visit the Reds in the final.

 

 

 

 

Brumbies v Force, Saturday 1st May, Canberra, KO 10:45 (South African time)

 

Referee: Nic Berry
Assistant referees: Graham Cooper, Amy Perrett
TMO: James Leckie

 

Weather Forecast - Canberra

 

Brumbies:

 

The Brumbies were on a bye for the final round of the regular season last week and they were already assured of hosting this play off. The Canberra side finished with a record of 6 wins and 2 defeats with both those losses coming against the Reds who will meet the winners of this play off in the final in Brisbane next week.

 

On form the Brumbies are still big runners as they comfortably beat the Force twice, 27-11 in Perth in Round 1 and 42-14 in Canberra in Round 6. However their matches in the later rounds were close contests, edging out the winless Tahs 24-22 before going down to the Reds by the same scoreline.

 

The Brumbies won 3 of their 4 matches in Canberra, the defeat also came against the Reds in another thriller and this will be their first home fixture since that Round 6 win over their opponents here.

 

In the outright betting to win the tournament the Brumbies are trading as second favourites at around 13/10.

 

Brumbies Fixtures & Results: R1 Force (a) won 27-11, R2 Waratahs (h) won 61-10, R3 Rebels (h) won 27-24, R4 Reds (h) lost 40-38, R5 bye, R6 Force (h) won 42-14, R7 Waratahs (a) won 24-22, R8 Reds (a) lost 24-22, R9 Rebels (a) won 26-20, R10 bye

 

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Force:

 

The Force came into last weeks home game against the unbeaten Reds needing a win to secure this play off place and they obliged, coming out on top 30-27 thanks to Jordan Olowofela who scored a hat-trick of tries. 

 

It was a hectic finish to that game and that was also the case a round earlier when the Force edged the Tahs 31-30 in another home fixture and the also beat the 20-16 Tahs in Sydney. One other away victory came against the Rebels (16-15) in Round 8 so when the Force do win, it tends to be a nail biter. .

 

The Force finished with a record of 4 wins and 4 defeats and they were 12 points behind the Brumbies in the standings but as their results suggest, they improved significantly later in the tournament.

 

In the outright betting to win the tournament the Force remain outsiders of the party, trading at around 18/1.

 

Force Fixtures & Results: R1 Brumbies (h) lost 27-11, R2 bye, R3 Waratahs (a) won 20-16, R4 Rebels (h) lost 10-7, R5 Reds (a) lost 26-19, R6 Brumbies (a) lost 42-14, R7 bye, R8 Rebels (a) won 16-15, R9 Waratahs (h) won 31-30, R10 Reds (h) won 30-27

 

Team News

 

Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Andy Muirhead, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Tom Wright, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Nic White, 8 Pete Samu, 7 Rory Scott, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Cadeyrn Neville, 4 Darcy Swain, 3 Allan Alaalatoa (captain), 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 James Slipper.

Replacements: 16 Lachlan Lonergan, 17 Scott Sio, 18 Tom Ross, 19 Nick Frost, 20 Luke Reimer, 21 Ryan Lonergan, 22 Reesjan Pasitoa, 23 Mack Hansen

 

Force: 15 Jake Strachan, 14 Toni Pulu, 13 Richard Kahui, 12 Kyle Godwin (captain), 11 Jordan Olowofela, 10 Domingo Miotti, 9 Tomás Cubelli, 8 Brynard Stander, 7 Kane Koteka, 6 Fergus Lee-Warner, 5 Sitaleki Timani, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Santiago Medrano, 2 Feleti Kaitu’u, 1 Tom Robertson.

Replacements: 16 Andrew Ready, 17 Angus Wagner, 18 Greg Holmes, 19 Ryan McCauley, 20 Tim Anstee, 21 Ian Prior, 22 Henry Taefu, 23 Jack McGregor

 

Recent Head to Head (any venue)

 

2021 SRAU Canberra Brumbies 42-14 Force (Tries 6-2 )

2021 SRAU Perth Force 11–27 Brumbies (Tries 1-3 )

2020 SRAU Canberra Brumbies 31-14 Force (Tries 5-2 )

2020 SRAU Leichhardt Oval Force 0–24 Brumbies (Tries 0-4 )

2017 Canberra Brumbies 25-17 Force (Tries 4-2 )

2016 Canberra Brumbies 24-10 Force (Tries 3-1 )

2016 Perth Force 14–31 Brumbies (Tries 2-4 )

2015 Perth Force 20-33 Brumbies (Tries 2-5 )

2015 Canberra Brumbies 27-15 Force (Tries 4-2 )

 

 

 

The Betting,

 

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Brumbies -14.5 points at 9/10

Force +15.5 points at 9/10

 

Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.

 

Betting Angle

 

The Force have been much improved this season but I have a feeling they "played their final" last week. and I think the Brumbies will win this one comfortably. The Brumbies have had the measure of the Force this season and while I am a bit concerned they could step off the gas at some point I am confident on the -14.5 and wll post any points plays in our forum closer to kickoff. 

 

Bet: 5 units Brumbies -14.5 at Hollywoodbets 

 

Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.

 

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