Couch Critic previews the betting and provides his tips for this weekend’s Super Rugby final between the Crusaders and Jaguares with special bets courtesy of BetOlimp.co.za
Super Rugby 2019 got underway on 15 February and now, almost five months later we are finally on the eve of the last game of the 2019 season. Both the Jaguares and Crusaders were victorious on 11 occasions. The Saders earned the right to host the final outing of the season by virtue of only losing 2 games compared to the five of the South Americans.
On a personal note it’s been a pretty successful Super Rugby campaign and I’m sure many of you still have a few outright plays that you can’t wait to have settled come the final whistle. In case you’re still sitting on the fence and feel the itch of having one last betting fling – here’s what I think of how things will go down in Christchurch.
Crusaders vs Jaguares (Saturday @ 09:35)
For the past 29 matches the mighty Crusaders have remained unbeaten at their fortress. Possibly even more scary than this they have also never tasted defeat in a knockout game on home soil since the start of Super Rugby in 1996!
History might be on the side of the Crusaders but there is also little to put one off their more recent form either. Yes they had their periods of stress against both the Highlanders and Crusaders but they dug deep and got the job done. Perhaps not quite the indominable force they were last season, the Saders were still only toppled on two occasions and their final points difference shows exactly how dominant the men form Christchurch have been - with a points difference of 240 they have more than twice the net advantage of their final opponents.
The biggest concern for the home side will be the absence of two key players in Scott Barrett and Ryan Crotty.
The Jaguares have been incredible. Their brilliant charge in the second half of the season even left some questioning whether such a full-on international team should even be allowed in the competition (only from the Aussies of course). The South Americans were able to find that beautiful perfect balance in their game. The physicality was still there but they were finally able to keep their discipline in check. Solid defense and scrapping work at the breakdown was offset by slick handling and interplay from backs as well as forwards and one of the key attributes of their game was a clever and effective use of the boot.Make no mistake about it these Jaguares have deserved their spot in the main event. Last week the Latins were clinical in dispatching the visiting Brumbies with ease.
The Jaguares will have to prove that they can be just as passionate when playing away from home.
Verdict
I have nothing but respect for the type of game the Jaguares play and love watching them in action. But this final could prove to be one step too far for this impressive rugby team.
From the five games in which they faced Kiwi opponents the South Americans won on three occasions and lost twice (losses to Chiefs in Argentina and Highlanders in NZ).The Highlander loss also came in their first match after the travelling.
The Crusaders last lost a playoff match in 2016 – THREE years ago. I don’t see them bucking the trend this coming weekend against a team who doesn’t have any knockout pedigree; had to travel a considerable distance to get to a cold and damp Christchurch; and have already twice in 2019 lost to Kiwi opponents.
Betting Strategy
The first 20 minutes of the clash will be crucial for the Jaguares. If they let the Crusaders get away from them early then this could turn into a very long day for them. I have a sneaky feeling the old discipline issue might just rear its ugly head as the Jags try tooth and nail to impose themselves on their opponents in the first half. The Crusaders will look to play percentage rugby with Mo’unga running the show with tactical kicks as well as attacking kicks behind a dominant pack and forcing the visitors to try and came up with some crazy long-distance attacking plays.
Best Bet: Crusaders to win by over 14 points @ 1.91 with BETOLIMP
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change
Couch Critic
