Couch Critic previews Saturday's Rugby World Cup final between England and South Africa with best bets from @Olimp_SA
We’ve had drama in the form of the typhoon and Scotland threatening the IRB with court action. There has been intrigue with coaches like Cheika and Jones enjoying some press conference theatrics as well as referee and yellow card concerns throughout. And finally we have suspense this week as the world waits to see who of England or South Africa walk away with the Webb Ellis… Any good script needs these three ingredients – drama, intrigue and suspense – to ensure it qualifies as a blockbuster. Well, Rugby World Cup Japan certainly had us on the edge of our seats devouring a bucket of popcorn with eyes glued to the action and now it’s down to who walks away with the Oscar when all is said and done.
Here is how I see things going down in the big Final from a punting perspective.
ENGLAND vs SOUTH AFRICA, Saturday 02 November @ 11:00 (Yokohama)
What you need to know
England topped the “pool of death” by beating Argentina (their match against France was cancelled). They then proceeded to topple Australia in the quarter finals as well as New Zealand in the semis. In both games the English were comfortably the better team and combined a solid set phase with some good attacking style as well, whilst being more than willing to roll up the sleeves and be physical enough to dominate the gain line.
South Africa slipped up against the All Blacks in their opener but put Japan away in the second half before fighting their way to victory in a semi final arm wrestle against Wales. The Boks haven’t shown much as an attacking threat, but their low-risk approach suits knockout rugby and their defence has been impressive.
Tactics & Team Set-up
Erasmus has the Springboks playing a very conservative approach based on their rush defence and the tactical boot of Faf de Klerk. England also use the boot very effectively but have a bit more going for them in terms of their attack – with the ability to transition into a fast-paced total attack with forwards and backs combining well. The South Africans have won all but one of their lineouts and the scrum has served them well. An uncomplicated, robust approach meets a smart, skilful total style. There rightly is a favourite yet neither team can be written off for what promises to be a tasty grand finale.
Key players for the Poms include Itoje and Underhill upfront and of course Farrell and Tuilagi amongst the backs. The lock has a great all-round presence and makes a nuisance of himself at rucks whilst seeking to keep his team on the front foot either as a carrier or by tackling tenaciously. Underhill has an incredible work rate and jackals effectively at the breakdown. England will look to him for a few turnovers. There might be some variety and skill to the English attack but Farrell and in particular Tuilagi are known for their physicality and are crucial ingredients in the Eddie Jones recipe for success.
South Africa have a pack that is the envy of any nation at the tournament. They arguably have five of the ten best locks in World Rugby at present all in their match-day 23. Faf and Pollard both have their limitations yet will be key if the Saffas are to be successful. Damian de Allende is a good match for Tuilagi and this should be a brutal match-up between the two big ball carriers in midfield.
How I see it panning out
At the end of the day the Springboks have lost a match over the last two months and “only” beaten the Welsh (narrowly) of all the top nations. England by contrast have beaten Argentina, Australia and the All Blacks. Should the Poms beat South Africa it would make it a full house of victories over the Rugby Championship sides and I think they have a very good chance of doing this. For mind the English have the better all-round game and should just about be good enough to withstand the physical onslaught from the brutal Boks.
Betting Strategy
I would love to post some patriotic Springbok punts below but unfortunately, I just can’t get myself to do that. I have already banked the 11/1 about an England vs South Africa final (predicted in my Betolimp Preview prior to the tournament) but instead of taking the profits and heading for the hills I am re-investing on the English to be crowned 2019 Rugby World Cup Champions. I would love to see the Springboks prove me wrong for the sake of a happy nation but I’m here to make some money from the rugga. Given the short price of England to win outright I have come up with the following plays based on SA’s lack of creativity and penetration on attack as my main reasoning.
Betolimp Best Bet: England to win and beat the handicap of -4.5 @ 1.82
Special Play 1: HT/FT Margin: ENG 1-8 /ENG 13+ @ 8.00
Special Play 2: South Africa Total Points – Under 15.5 @ 1.87
Special Play 3: First Scoring Play – England Penalty @ 2.62
Special Play 4: Owen Farrell to be man of the match @ 8.00
Most Match Tries England @1.79
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change
Couch Critic
