Couch Critic previews Sunday's Rugby World Cup quarter final clash between Japan and South Africa with best bets from @Olimp_SA

Japan vs South Africa, Sunday 20 October @ 12:15 (Tokyo)

What you need to know

Japan have been the fairy tale story of the 2019 World Cup. After beating the Springboks in the 2015 edition of the event many might have thought it would be the pinnacle of their rugby success. Yet the Japanese have eclipsed that effort with incredibly finishing the group stages of their home World Cup with a faultless four from four showing. In beating both Ireland and Scotland they not only qualified for the Quarter Finals but they do so as Pool A winners!

South Africa weren’t able to beat the All Blacks in their opening clash but they have looked sharp enough since then. In Tokyo on Sunday they will be well tested by a team that will throw anything and everything at their notorious defensive system.

How I see it panning out

It promises to be an interesting clash of contrasting styles. The Japanese seek to mostly avoid physical confrontation as far as possibly. They still tackle tenaciously and have learnt to front up in the scrums but they prefer giving the ball air and laying at an insanely high pace rather than keeping things tight and grinding away. The Springboks are all about muscle – the Japs about skill and guile. The South Africans will kick a lot whilst the host nation will seek to keep ball in hand.

The Springbok defensive system will be well tested by the skilful attacking flair of the Brave Blossoms. Yet firstly I think the Japanese must be left with a bit of a physical and emotional hangover after their impressive game against the Scots. They will find it tough to stay away from the physical side of the game against Rassie Erasmus’ big bruising Boks. South Africa should bully the hosts into submission when all is said and done.

Betting Strategy

There is zero chance of the Springboks being caught under-prepared or underestimating the host nation. OF all the Tier 1 teams South Africa also have the best first-hand knowledge of what to expect from the fast, expansive Japanese game.

The Brave Blossoms are sure to come out charged up in front of their home crowd yet again but I see the South Africans just methodically breaking them down with their solid defence and physicality to win comfortably in the end against Japan who will run out of gas in the end.

With physicality being the key to success for the Boks you will find me looking in the direction of two men to get involved with the tryscoring. In the end I have opted for Malcolm Marx to be the one to put the final nail in the coffin of the Japanese. In between all the physicality I also can’t look past the pocket rocket, Kolbe to get one on this big occasion considering the form he is in at present.

Betolimp Best Bet: South Africa – 14.5 @ 1.90

Special Play 1: South Africa to lead by 1-8 points at half time and win by 13 or more @ 7.20

Special Play 2: Last Tryscorer – Malcolm Marx @ 14.50

Special Play 3: Anytime Tryscorer – Cheslin Kolbe @ 1.95

Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change

Couch Critic