Couch Critic previews Rebels v Reds and Waratahs v Force in Round 2 of Super Rugby Australia Round 1 including best bets from @Olimp_SA
The first weekend of Rugby AU might have been received with mixed opinion but as I have told some people – live sport can’t be ignored! Here is what I expect and how I will be playing it form a betting perspective.
Rebels vs Reds – Friday 03 July @ 11:05, Brookvale Oval
The poor Rebels have been locked out of Melbourne due to the COVID virus. Its possibly not the worst thing in the world being allocated to the Northern Beaches of Sydney but it does mean that the home ground advantage has certainly been eliminated for the Rebels. The “home” side enter this clash of the back of an opening round loss to the Brumbies whilst the Reds were able to edge the Waratahs last week.
Teams & Tactics
The Reds have retained their same team whilst the Rebels have opted to move Brad Hodge to the bench with Campbell Magnay returning from injury to start in the 13 jumper.
Queensland looked superb at times, especially in the opening half of rugby, against the Tahs. A bad switch-off after the turn-around did however almost cost them the game until they were able to rally with a strong final quarter. The Rebels were comfortably handled by the Brumbies for an hour until the men from Melbourne were finally able to find their range and get close to a dramatic come-from-behind win in Canberra.
The visitors will bargain on setting a strong platform upfront with a pack that does appear a touch superior on paper. Crafty operators such as Toomua, Meakes and Haylett-Petty in the Rebels camp means that the Reds will need to keep their opponents on the backfoot throughout or they will be made to pay, as the Brumbies saw when they eased up later in the second half last week. This promises to be an interesting clash between the x-factor of the Reds against the smarts of the Rebels.
Verdict
My strategy with these Aussie derbies are to almost blindly back the home side for a rather narrow victory. In this case I like the tactical nous of some of those Rebels but am worries that the Reds pack will hold the edge. Some alternative plays could be the way to go as I say this game having a few ebbs and flows. Let’s hope we get a touch lucky with one of these plays – they are playing at a ground the NRL Manly faithful refer to as Lottoland after all.
Waratahs vs Force – Saturday 04 July @ 11:15, SCG Sydney
It’s welcome back to mainstream rugby for the Western Force when they run out onto the SCG on Saturday. The Waratahs came bitterly close to pulling off a surprise in Brisbane and could potentially take some confidence from that first outing into this clash.
Team & Tactics
As expected the Force are a blend of youth mixed with a few journeyman. Jono Lance, Greg Holmes and Kyle Godwin have all been drafted into the set-up of the men from the West of the country. Marcel Brache is another experienced face that we all know rather well. The Tahs have named settled side with the prospect of Karmichael Hunt added some spark off the bench.
The Waratahs will be hoping that the experience of having an outing under their belt will hold them in god stead for this clash. We have little to go on with the Western Force but I honestly feel their one and only chance of causing an upset would be in the form of the tactic known as hoping the opposition underestimate them completely – they’ll be hoping the home side pitch up expecting to raise their bat at the ground known for its cricket but get out to a juicy half tracker from a part-timer.
Verdict
Match-ups all across the park tell you this is a mismatch of a clash. The Waratahs have a more solid pack, a dangerous back or two too many for their opponents and the advantage of having one game under their belts to get rid of the cobwebs. The Force have years of rust to shake off and even a Waratahs team prone to taking their eye of the ball at times should be able to dispatch the team from Perth to the fence with relative ease.
BETOLIMP BEST BETS
Half Time/Fulltime – Reds/Rebels @ 6.54
First Tryscorer – Liam Wright @ 33.00
Anytime – Taniela Tupou @ 4.00
First Tryscorer – Mark Nawaqanitawase @ 8.80
Last Tryscorer – Karmichael Hunt @ 24.00
To score 3 or more tries - Mark Nawaqanitawase @ 13.20
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(Note, all odds quoted are subject to change)
Couch Critic
