@ZAPunter provides his betting tips for the Uefa Champions League clash between Lille and Valencia which takes place on Wednesday 23rd October
LILLE VS VALENCIA, WEDNESDAY @ 21:00
Lille welcome Valencia to the Stade Pierre Mauroy on Wednesday night and will be looking for their first win of the Champions League campaign. Lille lost both of their opening matches against Ajax and Chelsea, conceding 5 goals in the process. Valencia sits 2nd place in the group, ahead of Chelsea on goal difference, they started their campaign with a victory away at Stamford Bridge, but suffered a defeat at home against Ajax. Other than the Amsterdam giants, no team in the group has looked great and therefore the 2nd spot is wide open. If Lille manages to win on Wednesday and Chelsea losses away to Ajax, all 3 contenders for that 2nd position will be on 3 points. Both teams enjoy playing attacking football and this should be another open game in a very exciting group.
LILLE:
Another defeat on Saturday against Toulouse made it just 1 win in 7 games for Christophe Galtier’s Lille, they don’t look like the side who were so impressive last season in Ligue 1. Lille has only kept 2 clean sheets all season and the reason may be their style of play. Lille plays a high press type of game and are often caught out on the counter attack. Their strength is their forwards even without Pepe, who joined Arsenal in the transfer window, they still have Bamba, Ikone and Osimhen who can cause any team problems. Bamba and Ikone for their pace and trickery and Osimhen for his goal scoring ability and physicality. Osimhen was also the Ligue 1 player of the season in September, scoring 7 goals so far this season and averages 4 shots per game. Lille’s expected goals this season: xGf – 1.47 and xGa – 1.42, comparing that with the actual goals they have been a shade unlucky, suggesting they should of scored more goals and conceded less. Lille will be without 3 players on Wednesday: Sanches, Celik and Weah.
VALENCIA:
Valencia will be hoping that the trend continues for Lille never beating Spanish opposition in European competitions. Albert Celades’ has also struggled recently, but came from behind to secure a valuable point against Atletico Madrid. Los Ches have been difficult to break down this season, but they have also struggled for goals, only scoring 14 goals in 11 matches. They set up in such a way that their opponents struggle to find space in behind and they try and keep everything in front and away from their box. This also negatively influences their attacking options and slow build-up play is what they count on mostly. Valencia xG: xGf – 1.48 and xGa – 2.21, they should be scoring more goals, but also conceding more goals, normally a sign of further regression. Valencia will only be without Spanish left back Gaya on Wednesday.
PROBABLE LINE-UPS:
Lille: 4-2-3-1
Maignan,
Pied, Fonte, Gabriel, Bradaric,
Soumare, Thiago,
Yazici, Ikone, Bamba,
Osimhen
Valencia: 4-4-2
Cillessen,
Wass, Garay, Gabriel, Costa,
Torres, Kondogbia, Parejo, Cheryshev,
Gomez, Rodrigo.
PREDICTION:
Is it that time again? This will be the Champions League best bet and I really like this selection. As stated before, this group is wide open and everyone still has a chance to advance to the round of 16. I have watched all 4 group games thus far and it’s been end to end stuff. I believe Valencia will be confident they can score goals just like Ajax and Chelsea did against this Lille team. Lille on the other hand will play in the same manner they did against Chelsea and that will be enough to break down Valencia. The market has drifted on the over for some reason and that’s available at + money now, but I will once again be looking for both teams to score here.
BETTING:
BEST BET: Both teams to score – 1.81 @ BetOlimp
Champions League Record: 3-1
Champions League BEST BET Record: 1-0
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change
@ZAPunter
