Couch Critic provides his betting tips for the second test match between South Africa and England which gets underway in Cape Town on Friday 3rd January
The clocked has ticked over and into what many believe to be the new decade. For cricket lovers the second or third day of the New Year not only signals the end of a celebratory hangover but it also means the commencement of the first test match of the year. In South Africa we see the New Year's test taking place in Cape Town as England look to bounce back from illness and defeat. Whilst the players are usually all keen to get their stats going in the right direction from the start of a calendar year, us punters also feel the need to start with a bang. So here are my thoughts on how to get in the black early in 2020 off the back of what I expect to see in Cape Town
SETTING THE SCENE
It was once again a stylish exhibition of counter-attacking cricket from Quinton de Kock that got the Saffas going in the right direction at Centurion. England went from 140-3 to 181 all out which proved too much ground to be giving up so meekly. The Proteas still stuttered in their second innings and had to endure a few nervy moments during the England chase before securing a rather comfortable win - with spearhead Rabada showing glimpses of his best and newbie, Nortje impressing in spurts.
HOW I SEE IT PLAYING OUT
There is no doubt that the Poms were hampered by illness that swept through the squad. They should all be close to full fitness come the first ball on 3 January. Apart from Jack Leach who has had his own injury issues as well as Jofra Archer who is in doubt with an elbow injury.
In 2019 the calendar year was welcomed with a South African roast as Steyn, Rabada and Olivier rattled through the Pakistanis. The Proteas managed 431 in their batting effort with Faf du Plessis top-scoring with a century. In the 2018 version of the New Year's Test it was a low-scoring affair with only three fifties scored and Philander picked up nine in the match. When Australia came to visit in March they could only manage 107 in their fourth innings and Morne Morkel was the one to walk away with nine sticks and a Man of the Match title. There is a new groundsman in place and dry conditions have been experienced in the Cape of late so I'm expecting a bit less of a hostile welcome for the English on this occasion. The expectation is that this should be the type of pitch which gives all aspects of the game a chance to shine.
Despite the result the Protea batting line-up still looks very brittle. Whilst effective and entertaining, De Kock could very easily have fallen early in his innings and that could have changed the entire course of the match. South Africa should know that they can't remain so reliant on their keeper to keep getting them out of trouble. England have also not been able to find the necessary answers with Bairstow and Buttler struggling for form. Burns and Denly both showed some good fight in Pretoria.
BETTING ANGLE
Dean Elgar had a test match to forget at Centurion. He is likely to have a debutant as opening partner and given the fragile nature of the SA line-up the gritting opener needs to step up and fight. Elgar made a superb hundred against the Aussies at Newlands less than two years ago and I reckon he could feed of that memory to lead the charge for the hosts.
Joe Root put up a gallant fight in the fourth innings. As captain and as batsman Root endured plenty of pressure in 2019. He will come into this test with better health and keen to start 2020 in the right manner - with runs and a victory.
From the start of this series I felt these teams match up very well against one another. Perhaps its more a case of being equally poor with the bat than being equally strong. Either way the first test proved that there is indeed little to chose between the two teams. England put up a good fight in the fourth innings and even before that they would be kicking themselves for a few soft moments which saw they slack behind in the match. With the team as a whole in better health they should be stronger but the possible loss of Jofra Archer could prove a critical blow.
For mind I see two players having big games. Vernon Philander returns to Newlands for the very last time as test cricketer. He knows every blade of grass and loves the venue. Crucially he also pitched in with some important runs at Centurion and as such he should be in the running for a Man of the Match effort if his teams comes out victorious. The same goes for Ben Stokes. He is likely to pick up a few wickets and has every chance of being one of his team's biggest run-scorers. Pick one of these fine warriors, they won't disappoint.
BETOLIMP BEST BETS
Batsman to score a fifty in the match - Dean Elgar @ 2.20
Batsman to score a fifty in the match - Joe Root @ 1.83
Man of the Match - V Philander @ 14.60
Man of the Match - B Stokes @ 12.50
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change
Couch Critic
