Tour de France 2019 gets underway on Saturday 6th July and Couch Critic makes his selections from the outright betting markets
The honest truth about the most prestigious of the grand tours is that the organisers are pretty desperate to bring an end to the Team Sky dominance -the British cycling team have won six of the last 7 events and are also going for a fifth straight title in 2019. Not only is the dominance of one team and rider seen as to the detriment of the sport as a spectacle, the style with which it is done is deemed boring since they basically discourage attacks on mountain stages.(The Ineos/Sky team employ a serious strong team who are able to ride tempo on even the toughest of climbing stages and in so doing ride most contenders off their wheel, they are also almost all like a well-oiled machine against the clock).
To try and counter these tactics the organisers have in the recent past tried tinkering with the parcoursin an effort to try and shake things up. We’ve seen super short mountain stages; stages with ridiculous amounts of climbing; hellish descents to the line (which Froome just dominated in any case); the use of cobbled sections of road and then of course the adjusting of the length andnumber of time trials.
A closer look at the route
Let’s take a quick look at what they have to offer us in the 2019 version:
We have one team time trial (TTT-27.6km) and one individual time trial (IT-27.2km) this year
Bonus time will be available on some of the significant climbs within certain stages
Five summit finishes, two each in the Pyrenees and the Alps and one on Stage 6
One of the crucial things about this year’s course is that the TTT comes early in the race. The pretty flat course found on Stage 2 might only be 27 odd kilometres, but the majority of the major contenders will be losing more than 30 seconds to the two Ineos favourites, and some even in excess of 1 minute. The likes of Quintana and especially Bardet could thus be on the back foot from the word go.
Stage 6 might offer the climbers something to target but the ITT lies in wait on Stage 13. After this one it will however be over the mountain goats to use the five remaining mountain stages to try and overcome any deficits built up against the clock in the opening two weeks of the race.
The other thing to keep in mind is that this is a three week grand tour and somewhere along the line a few of the more fancied riders might be caught out behind a crash, take a tumble themselves, lose time due to cross winds or have a mechanical issue at the wrong time.
Who to back for glory in Paris
Since the route was announced everyone has been of the opinion that the true climbers will be at an advantage here. We even saw Tom Dumoulin and Roglic choose the Giro above the Tour de France quite clearly with the lack of time trialling a big factor in their decision-making process.
Geraint Thomas – Defending champ but not coming into the 2019 version in the best shape. TT also his strong suit.
Egan Bernal – Great young talent and superb climber who won’t lose too much against the clock either. Can he last three weeks?
Jacob Fuglsang – A steady performer who’s had a fantastic year. But can form translate into sustained performance over three weeks?
Adam Yates – Wants to follow in the footsteps of his twin brother, Simon, in getting his first grand tour win. Decent form in 2019 but previous best effort at a grand tour was a fourth and a ninth.
Vincenzo Nibali – The Italy/France double we have seen is pretty much impossible in modern day cycling.
Bardet & Pinot – The Frenchies who can climb with the best but suck in the time trial and struggle with the pressure of being the blue-eyed boys of cycling in France.
Richie Porte – Not at all the best pre-race prep and he usually finds a way to make things difficult for himself.
But my bets go to:
Nairo Quintana –Mister consistent has been largely overlooked for this event and I don’t understand why. Less TT, strong team and great grand tour experience. I’m backing Quintana to surprise and go all the way. N Quintana to win the yellow jersey in Paris @ 17.25
Thibaut Pinout – His career and current form as well as the parcourse for 2019 has Pinot locked on as a strong candidate. He needs to not have that one dismal day and, with the like of Reichenbach by his side, I reckon Pinto will be in with a shout. T Pinot to finish on the podium @ 5.25
Warren Barugil - With Bardet (and possibly Pinot) disappointing the French fans again by my estimation they will need to be soothed with the Polka Dot jumper. The newly crowned French National Champion will deliver for them.
To win the mountain classification – W Barguil @ 6.50
(Note, all odds quoted are subject to change)
