Heading into the final round of matches European Championship Group E is finely balanced and on Wednesday Slovakia and Spain clash in Seville.
Slovakia
As it stands Sweden top this group with 4 points, Slovakia have 3, Spain 2 and Poland just the 1 and all 4 teams still have some sort of chance when it comes to reaching the last 16.
Slovakia sprang a surprise first time out with a 2-1 win over Poland, taking the lead in the first half and then regaining it after the Poles, who were reduced to 10 men with half an hour to go, had equalized.
Had Slovakia taken something from their second match against Sweden they would arguably already have done enough to secure a best third place finish place for the last 16 but they lost a dour game 1-0, conceding from the penalty spot in the 77th minute.
If Slovakia lose this game they will face an anxious wait to see if they have done enough to stay in the tournament and to reach the last 16 via any method they can be backed at around 17/10.
Spain
Spain played their second group match 24 hours after Slovakia's defeat to Sweden but again it didn't go as the betting suggested as they played out a 1-1 draw with Poland at this venue. Morata gave Spain the lead midway through the first half but Poland equalized early in the second period and Spain then missed a penalty which would have eliminated the Poles and put them back on course to top the group.
Spain had to settle for a 0-0 draw with Sweden in their opening match of the tournament which was also staged in Seville. They boasted an incredible 85% of possession and had 17 attempts at goal but they failed to register a breakthrough.
Victory here for Spain would see them finish in the top 2 of this group and they could even top it depending on how Sweden get on against Poland whilst a draw would leave them with an anxious wait.
In the outright betting to top this group Spain remain favourites at 8/10 and to win the tournament they can be backed at around 9/1
The Betting
Slovakia are trading at around 14.5/1 to win the game with the draw at 11/2 and Spain can be backed at around 1 / 5
A game of 3 goals or more is priced at 7/10 and it's 1.55/1 for both teams to score.
Note, odds are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
The Verdict:
Spain may be a touch fortunate to still be in with a shout of topping the group but they ought to take full advantage against a side that looks like it will struggle to “pull off a Sweden” and keep them out for 90 minutes.
As a betting heat this one makes only limited appeal but given he is the only player to find the net for Spain in the tournament so far I'll go with Morata to open the scoring.
Bets: First goalscorer Alvaro Morata at 3.35/1.
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Note, odds are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
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