The final round of Autumn Nations Cup pool matches take place this weekend and England bid to rubber stamp their place in the play off final when they visit Wales on Saturday.
Wales v England, Saturday 28th November, Llanelli, KO 18:00 (South African time)
Referee: Romain Poite
Assistant Referees: Pascal Gauzere, Alex Ruiz
TMO: Brian MacNeice
Weather Forecast: Llanelli
Wales are third in Pool A on 4 points, level with Ireland but 5 points behind England. They snapped a 6 match losing sequence with an 18-0 win over Georgia in difficult conditions last week but their points difference is still vastly inferior to the 2 sides above them in the standings.
In their Autumn Nations opener Wales were beaten 32-9 by Ireland in Dublin, a game where they were allocated around 9.5 points start on the handicap.
Wales also had a poor 6 Nations which ended with a 14-10 home defeat to Scotland on 31st October. Earlier in the tournament they lost at home to France (27-23), in England (33-30) and to Ireland in Dublin (24-14) with their only win coming at home to Italy (42-0).
England need to avoid defeat to rubber stamp their place in next weekend's play off final which would most likely be against France. They beat Ireland 18-7 at Twickenham last week (12-0 half time) with Jonny May scoring both their tries. Ireland's late consolation brought the margin of defeat pretty much in line with where the pre-match handicap had settled.
England opened their tournament with a 40-0 win over Georgia at Twickenham. England scored 6 tries, 3 of which went to hooker Jamie George and the contest was over by half time with England 26-0 to the good.
Earlier last month England also clinched the 6 Nations title and in the outright betting to win this tournament they are now trading at around 1 / 3.
Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Louis Rees-Zammit, 13 Nick Tompkins, 12 Johnny Williams, 11 Josh Adams; 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Lloyd Williams; 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 James Botham, 6 Shane Lloyd-Hughes; 5 Alun Wyn Jones (captain), 4 Jake Ball; 3 Samson Lee, 2 Ryan Elias, 1 Wyn Jones
Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Rhys Carre, 18 Tomas Francis, 19 Will Rowlands, 20 Aaron Wainwright, 21 Rhys Webb, 22 Callum Sheedy, 23 Owen Watkin
England: 15 Elliot Daly, 14 Jonathan Joseph, 13 Henry Slade, 12 Owen Farrell (captain), 11 Jonny May, 10 George Ford, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 Sam Underhill, 6 Tom Curry, 5 Joe Launchbury, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Kyle Sinckler, 2 Jamie George, 1 Mako Vunipola.
Replacements: 16 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 17 Ellis Genge, 18 Will Stuart, 19 Jonny Hill, 20 Ben Earl, 21 Jack Willis, 22 Dan Robson, 23 Anthony Watson.
6N & RWC Head to Head (any venue)
2020 6N Twickenham England 33-30 Wales (Tries 3-3)
2019 6N Cardiff Wales 13-6 England (Tries 1-0)
2018 6N Twickenham England 12-6 Wales (Tries 2-0)
2017 6N Cardiff Wales 16-21 England (Tries 1-2)
2016 6N Twickenham England 25-21 Wales (Tries 1-3)
2015 RWC Twickenham England 25-28 Wales (Tries 1-1)
2015 6N Cardiff Wales 16-21 England (Tries 1-2)
2014 6N Twickenham England 29-18 Wales (Tries 2-0)
2013 6N Cardiff Wales 30-3 England (Tries 2-0)
2012 6N Twickenham England 12-19 Wales (Tries 0-1)
The Betting – Handicap
Wales +14.5 points at 9/10 widely available
England -14.5 points at 9/10 widely available
Note, odds quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
When the teams met in the 6N at Twickenham earlier this year there was only 3 points in it but Wales scored 2 very late tries and were flattered by the margin of defeat.
On form England have Wales stone cold but I can see Wales putting in a decent shift and looking at 6N head to heads in Cardiff you would have to go back to 2003 for the last time England won by a margin that would see them cover this handicap.
Wales plus is the handicap play.
Bet: 2.5 of 5 units Wales +14.5 points at 9/10 widely available
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