BRUMBIESSaturday's action in Round 5 of Super Rugby Australia is a top of the table clash between two unbeaten sides as the Brumbies clash with the Reds in Canberra.

 

 

 

 

Brumbies v Reds, Saturday 1st August, Canberra, KO 11:15 (South African time)

 

Referee: Nic Berry
Assistant referees: Jordan Way, Reuben Keane
Television match official: Ian Smith

 

Weather Forecast - Canberra

 

Brumbies:

 

The Brumbies had way too much for the Force at a neutral venue last week to keep their 100% record going. They cruised to a 24-0 victory, easily covering the early minus handicap of 13.5 points. Their 4 tries also earned a bonus point and their lead at the top of the standings stands at 4 points over their opponents here.

In earlier results the Brumbies struck late to edge out the Waratahs 24-23 in Sydney and in the opening round they saw off the Rebels 31-23 in Canberra, scoring 5 tries to 2 to pick up a bonus point in the process.

The Brumbies have won each of the last 6 Super Rugby head to heads against the Reds in Canberra.

In the outright betting to win the Australian tournament the Brumbies remain firm favourites, now trading at around 11/20.

 

Reds:

 

The Reds were on a bye last week and they return to the fold with a record of 2 wins and 1 draw. In Round 3 they beat the Force in a home fixture although they had to work harder than the Brumbies did against the same opposition with a final scoreline of 31-24. In Round 3 the Reds drew 18-18 with the Rebels at netural Brookvale and in Round 1 they opened up with a 32-26 home win over the Waratahs in Brisbane.

The Reds now take on the Brumbies for the first time in this revamped tournament. In Round 1 of the original season they lost 27-24 at this venue although they did oblige for punters who took the pre match handicap of +7.5 points.

The Queenslanders are 4 points adrift of the Brumbies in the standings and in the outright betting to win the Australian tournament they are now trading at around 4/1.

 

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Team News

 

Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Solomone Kata, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Tom Wright, 10 Bayley Kuenzle, 9 Joe Powell, 8 Pete Samu, 7 Will Miller, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Nick Frost, 4 Darcy Swain, 3 Allan Alaalatoa (captain), 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 Scott Sio.

Replacements: 16 Connal McInerney, 17 James Slipper, 18 Tom Ross, 19 Tom Cusack, 20 Lachlan McCaffrey, 21 Issak Fines, 22 Mack Hansen, 23 Andy Muirhead.

 

Reds: 15 Jock Campbell, 14 Chris Feauai-Sautia, 13 Hunter Paisaimi, 12 Hamish Stewart, 11 Filipo Daugunu, 10 James O’Connor, 9 Scott Malolua, 8 Harry Wilson, 7 Liam Wright, 6 Angus Scott-Young, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Angus Blyth, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 Dane Zander.

Replacements: 16 Alex Mafi, 17 Feao Fotuaika, 18 Jack Straker, 19 Ryan Smith, 20 Fraser McReight, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Bryce Hegarty, 23 Jordan Petaia.

 

 

Recent Head to Head (any venue)

 

2020 Canberra Brumbies 27-24 Reds (Tries 4-3)

2019 Canberra Brumbies 40-27 Reds (Tries 6-3)

2019 Brisbane Reds 36-14 Brumbies (Tries 5-2)

2018 Canberra Brumbies 45-21 Reds (Tries 7-2)

2018 Brisbane Reds 18-10 Brumbies (Tries 0-2)

2017 Brisbane Reds 16-15 Brumbies (Tries 1-2)

2017 Canberra Brumbies 43-10 Reds (Tries 6-1)

2016 Canberra Brumbies 43-24 Reds (Tries 6-3)

 

The Betting,

 

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Handicap

Brumbies -5.5 at 17/20

Reds +6.5 at 9/10

Note: Odds quoted are subject to change

 

Betting Angle

I priced this game as Brumbies -7.5 and was already leaning towards the minus before last nights edition of THE HANDICAP where @HanrickSwart came out quite heavily in favour of the home team.

They usually do their best work at home and The Reds have disappointed me in this tournament as while still in contention I expected more from them.

The Brumbies by 6 or more is the call.

 

BET: 6 units Brumbies -5.5 at 17/20 at Sunbet

 

For more my thoughts on the total points lines keep an eye on the Goodforthegame Rugby Forum thread

 

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