The Brumbies host the Reds in Canberra in the Super Rugby Australia final on Saturday and the betting suggests a close contest.
Brumbies v Reds, Saturday 19th September, KO 11:15 (South African time)
Referee: Angus Gardner
Assistant Refs:Amy Perrett, Reuben Keane
TMO : James Leckie
Weather Forecast - Canberra
The Brumbies topped the log at the end of the regular season and hence they advanced straight to this home final. Their record of 6 wins and 2 defeats saw them finish 3 points clear of the Reds who they lost to (26-7) in Brisbane in Round 10 a couple of weeks ago. It's worth pointing out that the top 2 positions were done and dusted by that time so the game was something of a dead rubber. The earlier head to head with the Reds at this venue saw the Brumbies edge it 22-20.
The Brumbies only other defeat came in Round 6 when they went down 30-12 to the Rebels. They have topped the log since the tournament started and have always been at the top of the bookmakers outright winner betting board.
The Reds won 5, drew 1 and lost 2 of their matches in the regular season which saw them pitched against the Rebels in last week's play off semi final. They were around 8.5 point favourites for that game and obliged for punters who took the minus handicap with a 25-13 win, scoring 3 tries to 1.
Aside from the narrow defeat to the Brumbies in the first head to head the Reds only other defeat came in a horror show against the Waratahs (45-12). If you draw a line through that performance they have been solid all tournament and they won't be short of confidence.
Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Andy Muirhead, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Tom Wright, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Joe Powell, 8 Pete Samu, 7 Will Miller, 6 Lachlan McCaffrey, 5 Cadeyrn Neville, 4 Murray Douglas, 3 Allan Alaalatoa (c), 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 Scott Sio
Replacements: 16 Connal McInerney, 17 James Slipper, 18 Tom Ross, 19 Nick Frost, 20 Rob Valetini, 21 Nic White, 22 Bayley Kuenzle, 23 Solomone Kata
Reds: 15 Jock Campbell, 14 Jordan Petaia, 13 Hunter Paisami, 12 Hamish Stewart, 11 Filipo Daugunu, 10 James O’Connor, 9 Tate McDermott, 8 Harry Wilson, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Liam Wright (c), 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Angus Blyth, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 JP Smith
Replacements: 16 Josh Nasser, 17 Harry Hoopert, 18 Ruan Smith, 19 Tuaina Taii Tualima, 20 Angus Scott-Young, 21 Moses Sorovi, 22 Bryce Hegarty, 23 Jack Hardy
Recent Head to Head (any venue)
2020 SRAU Brisbane Reds 26-7 Brumbies (Tries 3-1)
SRAU Canberra Brumbies 22-20 Reds (Tries 3-2)
2020 Canberra Brumbies 27-24 Reds (Tries 4-3)
2019 Canberra Brumbies 40-27 Reds (Tries 6-3)
2019 Brisbane Reds 36-14 Brumbies (Tries 5-2)
2018 Canberra Brumbies 45-21 Reds (Tries 7-2)
2018 Brisbane Reds 18-10 Brumbies (Tries 0-2)
2017 Brisbane Reds 16-15 Brumbies (Tries 1-2)
2017 Canberra Brumbies 43-10 Reds (Tries 6-1)
2016 Canberra Brumbies 43-24 Reds (Tries 6-3)
Brumbies -2.5 points at 9/10 widely available
Reds +2.5 points at 9/10 widely available
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
I was initially leaning towards the Reds but as kick off approaches I am liking the Brumbies more and more. They are always tough to beat in Canberra and the Reds will no doubt feel the effects of last weeks play off in Brisbane.
Bet: 3 units Brumbies -2.5 points, widely available at 9/10
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