REBvWARFriday's action in Round 5 of Super Rugby Australia sees the Force bid to open their win account when they take on the Rebels 

 

 

 

 

Force v Rebels, Friday 31st July, Sydney, KO 11:05 (South African time)

 

Referee: Damon Murphy
Assistant referees: Angus Gardner, Amy Perrett
Television match official: James Leckie

 

Weather Forecast – Leichhardt Oval, Sydney

 

Force:

 

The Force were beaten 24-0 by the Brumbies at a neutral venue in Round 4, it's now 3 defeats from 3 outings and they remain bottom of the standings. Their only log point this season came in a 31-24 defeat to the Reds in Brisbane in Round 3 whilst their tournament began with a 23-14 loss to the Waratahs, a game they led 14-0 at one stage.

 

In the outright betting to win the Australian tournament the Force remain the rank outsiders, trading at around 100/1 and upwards.

 

Rebels:

 

The Rebels put in their best shift of the tournament so far when they saw off the Waratahs 29-10 at the SCG last weekend. The pre-match betting suggested a close game but the Rebels, who scored 2 tries and conceded 1, controlled large periods of the game.

Earlier results include an 18-18 draw with the Reds at the neutral venue of Brookvale Oval, NSW. They were 10 points in front at one stage in that game which went into Super Time but failed to produce the decisive score. The Rebels began their campaign away to the Brumbies in Canberra in Round 1, a game they lost 31-23.

The Rebels now have 6 log points, 4 shy of the Reds and 8 behind the Brumbies and in the outright betting to win the tournament they are now trading at around 5/1

 

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Team News

 

Force: 15 Jack McGregor, 14 Byron Ralston, 13 Kyle Godwin, 12 Richard Kahui, 11 Marcel Brache, 10 Jono Lance, 9 Ian Prior (captain), 8 Brynard Stander, 7 Tevin Ferris, 6 Henry Stowers, 5 Fergus Lee-Warner, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Kieran Longbottom, 2 Feleti Kaitu’u, 1 Chris Heiberg

Substitutes: 16 Andrew Ready, 17 Pek Cowan, 18 Tom Sheminant, 19 Johan Bardoul, 20 Ollie Callan, 21 Nick Frisby, 22 Henry Taefu, 23 Brad Lacey


Rebels: 15 Reece Hodge (co-captain), 14 Tom Pincus, 13 Andrew Kellaway, 12 Billy Meakes, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Matt Toomua (co-captain), 9 Ryan Louwrens, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 Richard Hardwick, 6 Michael Wells, 5 Trevor Hosea, 4 Esei Haangana, 3 Jermaine Ainsley, 2 Jordan Uelese, 1 Cameron Orr

Substitutes: 16 Efitusi Ma’afu, 17 Cabous Eloff, 18 Pone Fa'amaluli, 19 Matt Philip, 20 Rob Leota, 21 Brad Wilkin, 22 Frank Lomani, 23 Andrew Deegan

 

 

Recent Head to Head (any venue)

 

2017 Perth Force 31–22 Rebels (Tries 4-3)

2016 Melbourne Rebels 27-22 Reds (Tries 4-3)

2016 Perth Force 19-25 Rebels (Tries 1-3)

2015 Melbourne Rebels 11–13 Force (Tries 1-1)

2015 Perth Force 17–21 Rebels (Tries 2-2)

2014 Melbourne Rebels 22–16 Force (Tries 1-1)

2014 Perth Force 32–7 Rebels (Tries 4-1)

2013 Perth Force 23–30 Rebels (Tries 3-4)

2013 Melbourne Rebels 30–23 Force (Tries 3-3)

 

The Betting,

 

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Handicap

Force +10.5 at 9/10

Rebels +9.5 at 9/10

Note: Odds quoted are subject to change

 

 

Betting Angle

I priced this game as Force +12.5 and if forced into a handicap punt I would be going for the Rebels -9.5.

A post on the rugby forum thread caught my eye earlier though and that was from @Son_of_a_Punt who took 15/20 at Betway that there would be 45 points or more in this match. They have checked conditions and reckon the scoreboard will tick over earlier with penalties before the tries come.

The line has moved to 47.5 in most places but there is 8/10 over 45.5 at Sportingbet and I am happy to get involved with that

@ThoughtsOnSports also rubber stamped it on our live rugby betting show THE HANDICAP

 

BET: 6 units over 45.5 points at 8/10 at Sportingbet

 

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