Saturday's action in Round 3 of Super Rugby Australia sees the Waratahs take on the Brumbies in Sydney and the visitors are firm favourites with the bookmakers.
Waratahs v Brumbies, Saturday 18th July, Sydney, KO 11:15 (South African time)
Referee: Angus Gardner
Assistant referees: Amy Perrett, Reuben Keane
TMO: James Leckie
The Waratahs opened their win account against the Force at the SCG last weekend. They had to claw their way back from 14-0 down at one stage but eventually ran out winners 23-14, a margin which was in line with the pre-match handicap.
The Waratahs began the tournament away to the Reds, a side they had not lost to in 11 previous head to heads. They did go into the game as underdogs and the early handicap proved to be accurate as the Tahs were beaten 32-26 (19-13 half time).
The Tahs finished Round 2 third best in the standings with 5 log points and in the outright betting to win the tournament they are now trading at around 37/4.
The Brumbies were on a bye last week and they return to action looking to make it 2 wins from 2. In the opening round they saw off the Rebels 31-23 in Canberra, scoring 5 tries to 2 to pick up a bonus point in the process. The pre-match handicap was also pretty accurate for that game and the Brumbies now hit the road looking to confirm dominance over the Tahs who they beat 47-14 in Round 7 of this season's original Super 15.
In the outright betting to win the Australian tournament the Brumbies remain firm favourites, trading at around 6/10
Waratahs: 15 Jack Maddocks, 14 James Ramm, 13 Joey Walton, 12 Karmichael Hunt, 11 Alex Newsome, 10 Will Harrison, 9 Mitch Short, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Lachlan Swinton, 5 Rob Simmons (captain), 4 Ned Hanigan, 3 Harry Johnson-Holmes, 2 Tom Horton, 1 Tom Robertson.
Replacements: 16 Robbie Abel, 17 Tetera Faulkner, 18 Angus Bell, 19 Tom Staniforth, 20 Will Harris, 21 Michael McDonald, 22 Mark Nawaqanitawase, 23 Ben Donaldson.
Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Andy Muirhead, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Tom Wright, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Joe Powell, 8 Pete Samu, 7 Tom Cusack, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Murray Douglas, 4 Darcy Swain, 3 Allan Alaalatoa (captain), 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 James Slipper.
Replacements: 16 Connal McInerney, 17 Scott Sio, 18 Tom Ross, 19 Lachlan McCaffrey, 20 Will Miller, 21 Issak Fines, 22 Bayley Kuenzle, 23 Mack Hansen
Recent Head to Head (any venue)
2020 Canberra Brumbies 47–14 Waratahs (Tries 7-2 )
2019 Sydney Waratahs 24-35 Brumbies (Tries 3-5)
2019 Canberra Brumbies 19–13 Waratahs (Tries 3-2 )
2018 Sydney Waratahs 31-40 Brumbies (Tries 4-6)
2018 Canberra Brumbies 17–24 Waratahs (Tries 1-2 )
2017 Sydney Waratahs 12-28 Brumbies (Tries 2-4)
2016 Sydney Waratahs 20-26 Brumbies (Tries 2-4)
2016 Canberra Brumbies 32–15 Waratahs (Tries 4-2 )
2015 Canberra Brumbies 10–13 Waratahs (Tries 1-1 )
2015 Sydney Waratahs 28–13 Brumbies (Tries 3-1)
Waratahs +9.5 at 9/10
Brumbies -8.5 at 9/10
Note: Odds quoted are subject to change
I priced this game at Waratahs +3.5 so it is fair to say if I was a bookie I would be standing them for bombs. A huge difference between me and the bookies often sparks a big bet but in this case I am putting my hand up and saying my initial assessment was wrong.
I have no firm feel for the cap and even the total points line at 50.5 looks well set.
I am going to look for an in-running play but in the interim will have a nibble on that man Fainga'a, Folau scoring the 1st try – driving maul anyone?
BET: 0.5 units Fainga'a, Folau 1st try at 8/1 Sunbet
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