The first of the European Nations League semi finals sees Italy clash with Spain in Milan on Wednesday and the Italians are favourites to progress to the final.

Italy

Italy are on a 37 match unbeaten run which includes 3 wins and 3 draws in the Nations League and the Euro 2020/21 finals, a tournament they won on penalty kicks against England at Wembley. Since that tournament they have played 3 World Cup qualifiers which delivered draws at home to Bulgaria (1-1) and in Switzerland (0-0) and last time out they thrashed Lithuania 5-0. Italy are 6 points clear of Switzerland in that qualifying group for Qatar 2022 although the Swiss have 2 games in hand.

Immobile is a late withdrawal from the squad with Moise Kean called up in his place.

The final of this tournament will also be staged in Milan at the weekend and the winner of this tie will face the either Belgium or France, who clash in the other semi final on Thursday.

Spain

Since their Euro semi final exit at the hands of Italy Spain's WCQ results include a 2-1 defeat in Sweden and wins at home to Georgia (4-0) and in Kosovo (2-0). Spain top their World Cup qualifying group, 6 points ahead of Sweden but the Swedes have 2 games in hand.

Recent Head to Head

The most recent head to head came in the Euro semi finals staged earlier this year, the game finished all square at 1-1 and Italy held their nerve to win the shoot out.

The Betting

90 minutes: Italy are trading at around 13/10 to win the game in regulation time with the draw at 21/10 and Spain can be backed at around 23/10

A game of 3 goals or more is priced at 5/4 and it's 19/20 for both teams to score.

Note, odds are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

The Verdict:

It's a tricky looking contest but home advantage and and a long unbeaten run sways me towards an Italian win.

Bets: Italy to win at 13/10

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Note, odds are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change

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