Tour de France 2018

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1 month 3 weeks ago - 1 month 3 weeks ago #1 by mackem
Tour de France 2018 was created by mackem
Tour de France starts on 7th July, some seasoned members of this forum love this event.

Before we get into the betting, a bit of fun with the Fantasy Competition, free to enter and no prizes whatsoever other than the all important bragging rights if you pick the right riders / teams for stages divided into rounds.


For anyone new to the competition read the rules carefully or even ask on here ...

Register or login at this website address:
cycling.udt.co.za

Then head for this league or code ...

League Name: Goodforthegame
League-Code: 18959529806189


Bring it on ....!!

twitter: @goodforthegame
Last edit: 1 month 3 weeks ago by mackem.

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1 month 3 weeks ago #2 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Tour de France 2018
Eh emmm... Since we are on the point of bragging rights Chris - I think you need to start this thread by acknowledging the current reigning, undisputed title holder! :P :silly: :lol:

Twitter: @HDCouchCritic

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1 month 2 weeks ago #3 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2018
Lol, too true Couch, I seem to recall I ran out of steam in the final week and refused to see Barguill as a factor. Then a year earlier BG was in line to win overall until Kittel punctured on the Champs :dry:

Pressure on you to retain the GFTG jersey now though

twitter: @goodforthegame

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1 month 2 weeks ago #4 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2018
Should add I was up while 2:30 in the morning putting this together for the route

www.goodforthegame.co.za/Cycling/tour-de...-stage-profiles.html


Haven't studied teams yet

twitter: @goodforthegame
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1 month 2 weeks ago #5 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Tour de France 2018

mackem wrote: Lol, too true Couch, I seem to recall I ran out of steam in the final week and refused to see Barguill as a factor. Then a year earlier BG was in line to win overall until Kittel punctured on the Champs :dry:

Pressure on you to retain the GFTG jersey now though


I've been practicing at altitude and the output stats look good. So now it's just a case of seeing whether training camp form transfers to the real deal - you blokes better be ready as I don't want any doping excuses post the event (your honour I pose to you that wine is not a performance enhancer!):P

See you guys on the starting line. I can't wait for Le Tour and hopefully making some cash.

Twitter: @HDCouchCritic

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1 month 2 weeks ago #6 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018
@ BG. Sounds like someone has been inhaling something not quite legal. May I suggest your opening odds along the line of
"Field excluding Couch" :P

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1 month 2 weeks ago #7 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2018
Froome cleared and free to race TdF.

Will have a look at the outright markets over next couple of days

twitter: @goodforthegame

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1 month 2 weeks ago #8 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2018
A market I am going to have a good look at is Sunbets to win a stage Yes or No - perhaps a nice big play on a 5/10 NO shot

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1 month 2 weeks ago #9 by goosoi
Replied by goosoi on topic Tour de France 2018
Hello again legends, love having a punt on the TDF after having a quick look I am going to drop some money on the following, unless you guys have some better options or think I am just lighting money on fire:

Winner: Yates & Bardet
Top3: Roglic
Points: Gaviria
Polka: Majka
Youth: Soler
Stage 1: Cav
Win 1 Stage: GVA and Gilbert
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1 month 1 week ago #10 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018
General Thoughts
Lets remind ourselves of the 2017 Tour. Froome built up an early lead and, except for AG2R who did try and challenge, Sky were left to control the race. During the last week Froome was not the best climber but he hung on to a lead of less then 30 seconds prior to the second last stage - the ITT - where he managed to extend it to nearly a minute.
The Favourites
This year there will be no respect for Sky, in fact it will be open season for the entire peleton. The controversy has to have affected Froome, who has the Giro in his legs, and I think he can expect far worse abuse from the public in the TdF. The previous Spitting and Pee showers could escalate into the Merckx type abuse of 1975. With powers waning and no respect from the peleton I believe Froome has very little chance of winning this year.
Richie Porte has raced in who knows how many Grand Tours and never podiumed. Always a bad day or a mechanical.
Movistar have picked a very badly balanced side. They only have Rojas and Bennatti to keep them safe on the flat stages. I have seen the tour lost before reaching the first mountains and this could quite easily happen to this squad.
Dumoulin also raced the Giro, Nibali has shown nothing since his early season win in Milan San Remo.
I think this tour could throw up some surprises in the GC

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1 month 1 week ago #11 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018
Nice to see we have more markets on the TdF this year. My outrights
Yellow Jersey
Hopefully team can keep him in contention on the flats
Win Quintana @ 8/1 1.0 units
Top 3
Bardet @ 11/4 3.0 units
Yates @ 19/4 1.0 units
Green Jersey
Top 3 Demare @ 51/20 1.5 units
Polka Dot Jersey
Top 3 Vuillermoz @ 40/1 1.0 units
White Jersey
Favour Latour but 2/1 a bit skinny so going for a H2H
Tolhoek over Martinez @ 2/1 1.5 units
Top Team
AG2R @ 9/1 1.0 units

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1 month 1 week ago #12 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018
Had a look at the Sunbet to win stage No list. Only one which slightly appeals is Nibali @ 11/20. The No bet I prefer is at Sportingbet.
Froome to finish top 3 - No @ 27/20 A few beers

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1 month 1 week ago #13 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018
To the C for serious punters who bet large amounts on odds on here's a thought.
The first 9 stages carry 3/2/1 sec at the interim sprint points and 10/6/4 seconds on the line. We start with two flat stages and, if not won by same sprinter, the yellow should change hands. Stage 3 is the TTT where one of the baroudeurs are normally allowed over the line first. Then we have stage 6 up the Mur-de-Bretagne where the yellow will change hands again. Stage 9 is the cobbles where we could see a new leader. That makes 5 yellow jersey owners in the first week.
WSB have a market - Number of riders to wear yellow.
The over 5.5 @ 5/6 looks tasty to me
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1 month 1 week ago #14 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2018
Like it Vann, plenty going for it.


Start list is here www.goodforthegame.co.za/Cycling/tour-de...2018-start-list.html


Some outright thoughts on the GC here www.goodforthegame.co.za/Cycling/tour-de...ication-preview.html

With Green Jersey Sagan looks short at 9/20 but I wouldn't know who, if anyone, to take him on with right now. KoM can wait for later in week 1 / start of week 2 for me

twitter: @goodforthegame

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1 month 1 week ago #15 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2018
Stage 1 preview for Saturday

www.goodforthegame.co.za/Cycling/tour-de...stage-1-preview.html

Dylan Groenewegen for me though would expect to find bigger than 2/1

twitter: @goodforthegame

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1 month 1 week ago #16 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018
The fact that Sky would throw a youngster like Bernal into that hostile environment tells you everything you need to know about the team.
Nevertheless - At great cost to myself ( A dinner at the larniest place in town including a bottle of Dom ) I asked the missus to peruse the odds on the TdF markets where the left hand figure is bigger then the right hand figure ie odds against.
I got - AG2R were the only team to challenge Sky last year/probably his best chance at the white jersey/he is the French ITT champion/he will keep riding after supporting Bardet looking for the white jersey.
Top 10
Latour @ 5/1
(Another monetary sacrifice by The Vann for GFTG)
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1 month 1 week ago #17 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Tour de France 2018
Okay here goes...

I hear the argument AGAINST Froome but I have a feeling people don't want him to win (me neither) rather than his actual chances not being that great and here's why:

1. Team Sky.
No one is at their level. Ag2R dont have the mountain goats to support Bardet. Caruso will help Porte but TJ is not my idea of the ideal mountain domestique. Movistar would be great if Valverde & Landa would work themselves into the grouns for Nairo - they wont.

2. Giro effect not that big.
No one has been able to handle the double in recent history. Yet this year there is an extra week gap. More importantly Froome was clearly way under cooked for the Giro and thus will probably only peak in the Tour. Yes the last mountain stage or two might start to hurt but he has the ITT to recover the seconds he loses to NQ, Nibali or Bardet.

3. Hostile crowds and other teams
Yes fans will be hostile but I reckon there is a bit of African attitude (or is it the Pom in him) that comes out when the odds are against him. Every year at Grand Tours you think the big dog will come under pressure from a host of teams but in the end they are all too cautious to risk it all and/or work together in any way shape or form.

4. He WANTS IT
This is about his legaxy. (Or he believes this in his own mind). He wants to pull off the double. He is already the reighning champ in all 3. He has 4 TdF titles. He is The Man. But he wants cycling immortality - he wants the double.

Froome is taking this one gents and I will only look for a podium play, Top10 and Mountain play pre race.

Twitter: @HDCouchCritic
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1 month 1 week ago #18 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018
Right. My day started like everyone else on the boards where we made the easy money on the Saders but this has been followed by giving most of it back on the footie and the balance looks like its going on the tennis - so back to the beers for Vann.
Stage 1
Taking Gaviria @ 25/10

( Wish Mackem would get the emoticons back on the site for us who operate off PC's because this would have a smiley attached.
@ Couch. My long departed mother always used to say - Son It's not the wanting that's a problem - It's the getting )

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1 month 1 week ago #19 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Tour de France 2018
Here we go gents!

Top 3: Quintana @ 15/10
Solid as they come. There are a few humps in the ITT so he wont suffer too badly. He was a shadow of himself last year when attempting the double but will look to set the record straight this year. Yes it is short but I feel the Colombian will come on strong in week 3.

Top 10:
Following Vann on Latour here. He will help Bardet to the very end and on the big stages still take time on many.

Mountains:
I see three options in this market. Firstly the Thomas de Gent rider who targets this prize from the start and tries to gobble points from the start. Then you get the GC guy who wins it without even trying (think Froome in the Giro). Lastly you have a lad who wants to target a top10 but has some misfortune and then shifts his focus.
This third market is quite often my favourite but bookies are quite fast on the uptake as well so often value disappears very quickly, it is also impossible to pick this third category beforehand.
Quintana @12 - needs to take a decent amount of time in the mountains.
Bardet top 3 @ 7/1 - same as above
Marting Guillaume @ 50/1

Going green:
I am a huge Sagan fan so tough to ever go against him in this market but this year might just be the chance with loads of proper sprinters and I feel less punchy stages as well. Then again the competition between the pure sprinters could also play in his favour.
Instead of dabbling in this market I will take Groenewegen to win 2 or more stages @ evens with Sunbet

Twitter: @HDCouchCritic
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1 month 1 week ago #20 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2018
Drama on Saturday, felt for Quintana most of all, terrible timimg for a mechanical.

Stage 2, brief heads up here goodforthegame.co.za/Cycling/tour-de-fra...stage-2-preview.html

Sticking with Groenewegen at around 33/10

twitter: @goodforthegame

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1 month 1 week ago #21 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2018

The Vann wrote: To the C for serious punters who bet large amounts on odds on here's a thought.
The first 9 stages carry 3/2/1 sec at the interim sprint points and 10/6/4 seconds on the line. We start with two flat stages and, if not won by same sprinter, the yellow should change hands. Stage 3 is the TTT where one of the baroudeurs are normally allowed over the line first. Then we have stage 6 up the Mur-de-Bretagne where the yellow will change hands again. Stage 9 is the cobbles where we could see a new leader. That makes 5 yellow jersey owners in the first week.
WSB have a market - Number of riders to wear yellow.
The over 5.5 @ 5/6 looks tasty to me


I am already regretting not following this one - hoping someone prices it up but not hopeful

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1 month 1 week ago #22 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2018
Going to track my bets in this tour - no target as such, just to beat the books

Will track in units and to date my only bet is 8 units Roglic/Dumolin at 11/10 Betx

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1 month 1 week ago #23 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2018
A long term I like

Demare 5/6 to beat Kittel in points classification - 5 units at Betx

Also got small outright interests at Sunbet

0.5 units Fugslang 17/1, Roglic 20/1 and Valverde 30/1

Inv: 13.5
Pending: 13.5

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1 month 1 week ago #24 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2018
A 5 unit strike in todays stage

GaviriaKittel at 5/10

Inv - 18.5
Pend 18.5

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1 month 1 week ago #25 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018
A gentle opening flat stage - no crosswinds - and 3 of my 4 outright GC bets shed chunks of time. On the plus side I see Porte is out to 16/10 for a top 3. This bet will have to be taken before the TTT so I will consider it after today's stage.
Stage 2
Gaviria @ 15/10
Nielsen over Colbrelli @ 15/10

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1 month 1 week ago #26 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Tour de France 2018
going to watch last 25km of stage 2 and taking a bit of F1 profit for an interest - Demare @ 9/1 in-running with Sunbet.

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1 month 1 week ago #27 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Tour de France 2018
Demare puncture. lol kiss of death.

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1 month 1 week ago #28 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Tour de France 2018
was just thinking about it, 175 riders, 1 person gets a puncture. 175/1 shot. had to be one person i punted. If i backed someone else now he'd probably hit a cow on side of road.

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1 month 1 week ago - 1 month 1 week ago #29 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2018
Getting in early on stage 3 - 5 units Sky at 0.73/1 GGGaming

I think they start 5/10

Turns out I only had 4 units not 5 on Gavria/Kittel double which arrived but could have gone either way due to Gavaria crash coming after a Kittel puncture

Inv 24.5 u
Pending 20.5 u
Banked 6 u

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Last edit: 1 month 1 week ago by Brent Graham. Reason: error correction

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1 month 1 week ago #30 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2018
Brent's preview of Stage 3 and Sky are indeed 5/10 in some places now www.goodforthegame.co.za/Cycling/tour-de...stage-3-preview.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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1 month 1 week ago #31 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Tour de France 2018
I didn't know too much about him before but really impressed by Demare's ride to just lose out yesterday after puncture. Had covered on 18/10 top 3 in running so small profit.

Do the TDF guru's think he's one to stick with for the next sprint stage? Seems like he could be decent e/w bet for sprint finishes.

Twitter @southpawZA

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1 month 1 week ago - 1 month 1 week ago #32 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2018
I reckon Demare can always give you a top 3 chance if he stays out of trouble South, worth looking at last km on the flatter profiles as an uphill sprint could suit him slightly better than Gaviria and Kittel imo. Sprints have not been as predictable as it seemed with all the crashes and mechanicals with the likes of Cavendish and Groen yet to get in a blow.

twitter: @goodforthegame
Last edit: 1 month 1 week ago by mackem.

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1 month 1 week ago #33 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Tour de France 2018
As Mackem has said - this year is a bit of a lottery with regard to the sprints. Usually a Top3 could almost have been a given for the top one or two sprinters. Now you have Gaviria, Demare and Groen who are incredibly fast. Kittel has lost some magic but he is still a quick guy. Then you can know Sagan will always be there or there abouts.

And yesterday's heroes (Greipel and Cav) will surely steal a podium on one or 2 stages. Then there are a few "floaters" like Kristoff, Colbrelli, Degenkolb and Laporte who don't have that top speeds but will continue to lurk.

Another problem with having this many contenders is that unless a guy is really going for the green jersey the top end sprinters might give up the ghost as soon as they see a particular sprint just isn't going their way (instead of fighting to try and salvage a third place).

So for mind there is little value on a specific sprinter taking a podium South, unless you can really get a worthwhile price and have a good reason to expect a fiery effort from you charger.

Twitter: @HDCouchCritic

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1 month 1 week ago #34 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018

southpaw wrote: I didn't know too much about him before but really impressed by Demare's ride to just lose out yesterday after puncture. Had covered on 18/10 top 3 in running so small profit.

Do the TDF guru's think he's one to stick with for the next sprint stage? Seems like he could be decent e/w bet for sprint finishes.


Demare has spent the last two years improving his form over climbs. His specific career target is the green jersey in the tour. He does not have the top end of Gaviria, Kittel or Groenewegen but he will get to finishes that they won't and he can match any of the other sprinters. He just does not read a finish as well as Sagan. He will contest all the interim sprints and something like stage 5 will suit him.

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1 month 1 week ago #35 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018
It's hard to imagine a bigger punting disaster then stage 1 this year. Badly damaged 3 of 4 GC bets and Sky had to send the team back to bail out Froome which means only Thomas can get yellow from the TTT today which could prove a mortal blow to the 5.5 yellow jerseys bet.
I have taken a chunk of the 16/10 top 3 offer on Porte and for today going with
Stage 3
Two teams who will just coast around the course so should be evens
Dimension Data over FDJ @ 13/10
and a match bet
Cofidis over Fortuneo into UAE over Wanty @ 43/20

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1 month 1 week ago #36 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Tour de France 2018
great feedback thanks lads, definitely can't think there's another place online with such collective TDF knowledge!

Twitter @southpawZA

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1 month 1 week ago #37 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2018
BMC bring me crashing to earth there - very surprised at the small time gaps

Inv 24.5 u
Pending 15.5 u
Banked 6 u
P/L -3u

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1 month 1 week ago #38 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2018
Tuesday Stage 4 preview here www.goodforthegame.co.za/Cycling/tour-de...stage-4-preview.html

Matthews to beat Kristoff at 2/1 a speculative play for me

twitter: @goodforthegame

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1 month 1 week ago #39 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2018
I like that price Mackem

Just a 0.5 unit play on Groenewegen for me today

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1 month 1 week ago #40 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018
Stage 4
Based on who was finishing fastest on stage 1 I am going for
Kittel @ 4/1
and I have difficulty leaving bets which should be 9/10 choice so a few beers on
Froome over Dumoulin @ 12/10
Quintana over Porte @ 15/10
Hopefully make one for a small profit

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1 month 1 week ago #41 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Tour de France 2018
I think Sagan might "struggle" a bit more today with it being a long straight drag to the line.

Kittel over Sagan @ 9/10
Demare over Colbrelli onto Gaviria over Sagan @ 11/10

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1 month 1 week ago #42 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2018
No joy from Groenegen, the lad seems to be getting zero team support

Left Greipel out my Fantasy Team - big error

Inv 25 u
Pending 15.5 u
Banked 6 u
P/L -3.5u

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1 month 1 week ago #43 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2018
Stage 5 preview for Wednesday is on the link below ..

www.goodforthegame.co.za/Cycling/tour-de...stage-5-preview.html

From a short list of about 25 ;) I've gone with Alaphilippe at 14/1

twitter: @goodforthegame

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1 month 6 days ago #44 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Tour de France 2018
Okay so my TdF starts today (especially the betting side of it).

Finally a bit of a tougher stage to sink my teeth into. Of course the problem is that there are a number of contenders. You might think it's between Sagan, GVA, Matthews and Ala P but then the break stays away or a select break steals it with a late move.

So...
Calmejane for the break @ 110/1
Tiesj Benoot for the late move @ 200/1
Magnus Cort Nielsen for select sprint @ 34/1

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1 month 6 days ago #45 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018
First class double yesterday Couch.
Profile shows last 800m at 5% but this does not help. If its steady then Sagan etc are favourites but if there is a 100m or so at 8% then Valverde/Martin/Alaphilippe come into play. I'm going for a few match bets and will listen if Robbie McEwen has ridden the finish and pick an outright in play.
Quintana over Porte @ 11/10 (Worked yesterday )
Alaphilippe over Valverde @ 21/20
and a double
Demare over Gaviria into Dumoulin over Jungels @ 3/1

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1 month 6 days ago #46 by kt6747
Replied by kt6747 on topic Tour de France 2018
Another good days racing, gone with the following:

Calemanje @ 66/1 (Followed CC)
Nibali @ 150/1 - Has quite a sprint uphill and may want to get some time on other GC contenders.

Gone with the following acc:
Alaphillipe / Valverde
Boassen Hagen / Keukeleire
Nibali / Froome

Works out to about 58/10

Hopefully a good watch this afternoon.

Enjoy

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1 month 6 days ago #47 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Tour de France 2018
Sagan performed much better than I expected yesterday Vann.

Like the look of Ala P over Valverde and will have a go at the following other matches:
EBH over Keukeleire onto Yates over Uran @ 14/10
Demare over Gaviria onto Bardet over Mollema @ 2/1

Twitter: @HDCouchCritic

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1 month 6 days ago #48 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018

Couch Critic wrote: Okay so my TdF starts today (especially the betting side of it).

Finally a bit of a tougher stage to sink my teeth into. Of course the problem is that there are a number of contenders. You might think it's between Sagan, GVA, Matthews and Ala P but then the break stays away or a select break steals it with a late move.

So...
Calmejane for the break @ 110/1
Tiesj Benoot for the late move @ 200/1
Magnus Cort Nielsen for select sprint @ 34/1


Quick heads up Couch - Benoot won't start today after yesterday's crash
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1 month 6 days ago #49 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2018
I added a few rand on Eddie Bos at 66/1, love this guy although a massive ask for him to win this and odds probably about right. Di Data have disappointed with Cav in the sprints so ought to give him all the support although have a feeling they might also try and get Slegter in the break

twitter: @goodforthegame

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1 month 6 days ago #50 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018
Managed to get Calmejane in play at Sunbet @ 9/1

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