Super Rugby Week 14 plus other Rugby
- Brent Graham
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Onto week 14 and here are my handicaps compared to Coils
Hurricanes -11.5 v Jags -14.5
Rebels -5.5 v Bulls -12.5
Blues -2.5 v Chiefs -5.5
Reds -1.5 v Waratahs -3.5
Lions choice v Highlanders -3.5
Stormers +5.5 v Crusaders +8.5
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- Overs_Punter
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Reds +5.5 - Tahs are average & travel factor. Reds pack will dominate at home
Highlanders +3.5 - Landers got a really solid pack that will nullify any threat of forward dominance from the lions. Landers will win this in a canter
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- mackem
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- kompos
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- ThoughtsOnSports
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5 o clock kick off on the coast will mitigate any chance the Saders have of chalking up a big scoreline. Hoping to crack in on under Saders points if the line is around 34.5
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- mackem
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- Brent Graham
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- mackem
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Bet: 1.5 units Hurricanes win by 11-20 points, 23/10 BetXchange
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- mackem
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2 units, either team to win by 7 points or less including tie, 31/20 Sunbet
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- Scoembo
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The second game that has been over priced in my opinion is the Stormers/Saders +13 (Sportingbet) . Yes the Saders are carving up at the moment but the Stormers defence has improved a lot lately and I fancy they will be fired up for this one. Could be real tight like the last All Blacks game at Newlands.
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- threepeat
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Bet: 1.5 units Hurricanes win by 11-20 points, 23/10 BetXchange
Hi Mack, I agree with you about this being tricky and that the bookies have it about right at -15.5 (TAB NZ) I am on a similar page about the result but will bet it differently due to fire power of both backlines. Highlanders v Jaguares last week at Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin was 32-27. I had a win on the Jags line in the forum last week (and real life lol) and will double down this week.
Bet: 1 unit Jags +15.5 @ $1.90
Bet: 1 unit Jags +18.5 @ $1.62
Good luck to everyone.
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- takethegap
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threepeat wrote: mackem wrote Hurricanes v Jaguares preview
Bet: 1.5 units Hurricanes win by 11-20 points, 23/10 BetXchange
Hi Mack, I agree with you about this being tricky and that the bookies have it about right at -15.5 (TAB NZ) I am on a similar page about the result but will bet it differently due to fire power of both backlines. Highlanders v Jaguares last week at Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin was 32-27. I had a win on the Jags line in the forum last week (and real life lol) and will double down this week.
Bet: 1 unit Jags +15.5 @ $1.90
Bet: 1 unit Jags +18.5 @ $1.62
Good luck to everyone.
Canes resting Barret. Took Jags +14.5
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- threepeat
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Canes resting Barret. Took Jags +14.5
Thanks for the update takethegap. Line has moved into Jags + 13.5 following Barret announcement, so we are looking sweet.
Also of note Savea moved to eight - probably an AB request.
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- landrews77
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Stormers and Crusaders- All stormers players talked about their defence ,and I think they gonna use the Sharks formula against the Sades.
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- RuggaBugga
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Round 10 - Sunwolves 23 Canes 29 - Canes win, don't cover
Round 2 - Crusaders 38 Canes 22 - Canes lose and fail to cover
Round 1 - Waratahs 19 Canes 20 - Canes win, don't cover
The Canes have not covered a handicap when BB is not playing! Agree with all other senitiment. Jags +14.5 is GOLDEN!!!
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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- RuggaBugga
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Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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- Pierrebal
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FS (-22.5) vs SWD - FS got home to winning ways superbly making light work of EP away. SWD scraped home to Zimbabwe, and they are really in trouble. The game is played at the Clive Solomon stadium, had to Google it, but it looks like a community football ground more than a stadium. Nonetheless, FS should cover the cap against a poor SWD.
WP (-45.5) vs Zim - WP was back to its destructive self last week dispatching of the Sharks away with ease. Zimbabwe has been a surprise beating 2 from 3 caps. With the Stormers back in South Africa, having had a rest, and lots of players back, some guys will drop down to the WP side. Its been there style. Playing the curtain raiser to the Super Rugby match, and looking to impress they will have too much for Zimbabwe.
Griffons (-19.5) v Namibia - The Griffons beat the cap against the Bulls last week and should have come closer after a poor first half. Namibia lost out on the cap in the dying seconds of the match against Griquas. Pre-tournament the Windhoek news was all about using the tournament as preparation for the WC but very few international regulars have played so far. Until that happens I will oppose them and am backing the Griffons to come good.
Leopards (-1.5) v Valke - As with the previous match, the game in played in Rustenburg, which is now the Leopards home ground after the decommissioning of Olen Park. The Leopards played very well against the Pumas and beat a massive cap. So did the Valke, they came back strongly against the Lions in the 2nd half. Pre-match the cap was -22.5 and at half time -38.5. Valke ended up losing by 3. In close games I prefer the home side, just think the Lions stepped off the gas too much and the score flattered the Valke in the end.
All the other matches are a coin flip for me, caps very well set and I'll stay away. Would love for Boland to beat the Sharks and they can certainly do that. Crazy form.
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- mackem
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2 units, Chiefs win by 1-12 points at 5/2 Sportingbet
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- mackem
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2.5 units, Either side to win by 6 points or less inc tie (Tribet - any other result 14/10 WSB)
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- landrews77
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Having said that , I feel The Bulls is a worthy or confident bet on the plus and for small stake , a win.
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- mackem
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Looks to be shaping up into a choice game but right now if you fancy Highlanders there is still even money around for the away win and I'll go with that outcome rated at 2.5 units.
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- threepeat
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RE your comment "5 o clock kick off on the coast will mitigate any chance the Saders have of chalking up a big scoreline. Hoping to crack in on under Saders points if the line is around 34.5"
As a foreigner, yet to visit fantastic Capetown could you please explain why 5 o'clock in May will slow down a rampant Sader Team? (Saders use to a lot of cold weather).
Expecting Saders v Bulls game plan which trumps Sharks game plan v Saders.
Thanks
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- threepeat
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Some fans have pointed out that there was no Springbok on the front of the jersey and took to social media to point out their frustrations.
"I hate World Cup jerseys. Always diluted....where's the Springbok logo?" one fan pointed out.
"Nice cricket jerseys... When will you be revealing the "Springbok" Jersey??? #ridiculous," said another.
"Where's your springbok???? Shocking," added another fan.
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- mackem
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Going with STO +12.5 although not that easy to justify it. Saders in Cape Town for first time since 2013 is big news and hoping that will help bring out best in Stormers who also battling to stay in contention in SA Conference.
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- mackem
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- ThoughtsOnSports
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Evening kick offs on the coast are synonymous with low scoring games. The conditions are just a little tricky for running rugby and the games are generally a bit tighter. Sanders used altitude against the Bulls last weekend. Usually points lines for coast games are in the high 40s. I see the points line for this game has come out at 55.5 so am firing under on that. Sanders points at 33.5 which I have gone under on.
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- Overs_Punter
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Under 57.5 @ 0.86/1 in the Reds v Tahs
Tahs under 29.5 @ 0.78/1
Under 55.5 @ 0.86/1 in the storm v Saders game
Landers over 28.5 @ 0.86/1 - this one more or less correct but fancy landers to cover this with ease
Treble at just under 6/1
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- mackem
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David Havili, Sevu Reece, Jack Goodhue, Ryan Crotty, George Bridge, Richie Mo'unga, Bryn Hall, Kieran Read, Matt Todd, Ethan Blackadder, Sam Whitelock (captain), Scott Barrett, Michael Alaalatoa, Codie Taylor, George Bower.
Reserves: Andrew Makalio, Harry Allan, Oliver Jager, Luke Romano, Jordan Taufua, Mitchell Drummond, Mitch Hunt, Braydon Ennor.
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- mackem
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- coil
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Game 1 Im pretty much all in on the Jags plus 16.5 and 14.5 at 7/10 and 15/20 from earlier in the week. Expecting jags to name a strong side and expecting no B Barrett.
Game 2 Rebels vs Bulls, I'm beginning to warm to the Bull's , I just don't rate the Rebels overall and feel they have plenty of weaknesses . Having said that the Bulls themselves are full of weaknesses and were atrocious last week in PTA but I feel they could enjoy this game away from home , will be looking for the best plus around and possibly look to punt them on the cap in running if the Rebels start well.
Game 3 The Blues are favourites against the Chiefs and them starting favourites always rings the alarm bells . To be fair they do deserve to be as they have improved a lot this season.
A tough game this with the cap well placed , I probably would have gotten on the Chiefs at plus 7.5 or so and I might have an in play position here ..
Game 4 The reds host the tahs who return from their tour . I missed the plus 4.5 reds early in the week and as a result no bet as yet . I do think it could go either way and might even include the draw in my thinking at 20/1 and better .
Game 5 Lions host the Highlanders in Joburg and I think the majority agree that the Highlanders are the right ones ... i managed to get some plus 2.5 early in the week. No warren whitely is huge and although the Highlanders might not be the most reliable and consistent of teams their off load game should prove too much for the hosts.
Game 6 Finally the Stormers host a formidable Crusaders side .. I'm confident teh Stormers will stay within the handicap and also feel they could give the Kiwi's a scare.
Play well
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- ThoughtsOnSports
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Eyeing out a lot of 1-12 margins this weekend at good odds. Here are my plays for the weekend:
Canes vs Jags
No BB and strong Jags team translates into them beating the cap.
Canes 1-12
Jags +14.5
Reds vs Tahs
Reds have been strong at home against a Tahs side returning from an unsuccessful run in SA.
Reds +5.5
Reds 1-12
Tahs under 29.5 points
Total points under 57.5
Blues vs Chiefs
Blues have been unpredictable this year but there home form remains strong.
Blues -2.5
Blues 1-12
Lions vs Landers
3pm kickoff. Rasta as ref. Altitude. Clear conditions.
Landers over 13.5 first half points.
Landers over 28.5 total points
Landers 1-12
Landers +3.5
Stormers vs Saders
Second home for the Saders against a rested Stormers side. I expect Storm to beat the cap.
Saders 1-12
Storms +14.5
under 55.5 total points
No plays so far on Bulls-Rebels but would lean towards the best Bulls cap.
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- southpaw
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But if they're going to come out with early points lines like that then might be tempted back in, poor site or not.
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- Brazil
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southpaw wrote: that's very good to see such early points lines from an SA Bookie. I gave up on Betx when they changed their site, it was just so poor to use. Withdrew all funds last year.
But if they're going to come out with early points lines like that then might be tempted back in, poor site or not.
Did the same ,couldn't take that trojan horse website any more,what a pain.
You have to wait and then click the chat icon out every time one loads their site ,then eliminate a few more more floating UFO's.Then the site jumps and squirms every time you click for a market,what a pain.Have to use my mobile in order to access it quicker.
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- Brad Breath
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Thoroughly enjoy 'The Handicap' - watch it every week but rarely get to watch it live, which I did tonight.
Thanks lads - keep up the great work.
(Didn't help me much betting wise though, with the exception of the Blues now being a banker Brent, lol)
Bets placed so far Jags +16 and lesser amounts of both Reds +3 & Landers +1.
Sadly no points lines up in Europe for Saturday games yet, feel any value may've gone when they're up, but will be keeping an eye out.
Probably skip Rebels v Bulls, unsure on Blues v Chiefs, will likely go Blues 1-12.
And might go against the grain with Saders points and/or minus cap.
In the Pro14 semis (Glasgow v Ulster and Leinster v Munster) I just can't see either of the home team favourites losing.
As such have Glasgow and Leinster win double @ 1.80
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- threepeat
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I am in the same waka as the panel on the possibility of a Jag upset and have added to my stake on Jags +15.5 with the TAB NZ promotion - only small bet allowed, but bullet proof? @ $4.90 = $147 return
Money Back Madness: Place a pre-game Head to Head bet on any of this weekend's Super Rugby matches and if your team loses by 10 points or fewer we'll give you your money back (Up to $30). See Punters Lounge for T&Cs.
Hurricanes
1.17
Jaguares
4.90
Cheers T.
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- Brent Graham
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I like the Jags plus but probably going to go with unders in Stormers game (if still there) as the best bet for the weekly e-mail
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- hanrick
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Points plays, strong bet on Hurricanes under 33.5 points at 8/10 and in Rebels vs Bulls game under 6.5 tries at 15/20
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- southpaw
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- bradie82
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Try before 15" @ 1.60 (Canes vs Jag) and @ 1.80 (Rebels vs Bulls)
Adding over 49.5 @ 1.80 on the rebels game
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- landrews77
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- Overs_Punter
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Under 4.5 canes tries 9/10
Bulls under 2.5 tries 17/20
Bulls/Rebels under 6.5 tries 17/20
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- southpaw
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- Ruan Fourie
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southpaw wrote: for a first try interest Fifita 22/1
Wow, how on earth did you know that one? Nicely done.
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- hanrick
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southpaw wrote: for a first try interest Fifita 22/1
Very well played, South
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- southpaw
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Ruan Fourie wrote:
southpaw wrote: for a first try interest Fifita 22/1
Wow, how on earth did you know that one? Nicely done.
shot lads and would like to say a lot of studying went into pick but really just thought with Savea moved to 8 one of the flanks might get over instead early. Couldn't believe it when seen him out wide to get to that ball.
Had placed bet about 10 min before ko and was looking for a Jaguares player to also post but just went with Fifita as nothing stood out.
Great start to weekend, and Jags playing superb.
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- southpaw
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hanrick wrote: On Jaguares +13.5 at 10/11 from earlier in the week. Also a small bet Jaguares to win the game and under 60.5 points in the game at 7/1.
Points plays, strong bet on Hurricanes under 33.5 points at 8/10 and in Rebels vs Bulls game under 6.5 tries at 15/20
superb calls especially the 7/1 shout.
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- Brad Breath
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Under 6.5 tries @ 1.86
And a beer on Pollard 1st try @ 41
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- southpaw
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Bulls over 10.5 1st half @ 19/20
1st try Brits 20/1
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- alike
Game: Melbourne Rebels vs Blue Bulls
Market: Match Result
Selection: Melbourne Rebels @ 1.96
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- bradie82
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