Cycling : The Tour de France

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1 month 4 weeks ago #1 by The Vann
Cycling : The Tour de France was created by The Vann
Bit early for this but Thomas went down in Switzerland today with suspected collarbone ( currently in hospital ). Dumoulin had gravel taken out of knee today and will miss teams final high altitude training so have taken some early doors on
Win
Pinot @ 18/1
Nibali @ 25/1

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1 month 4 weeks ago #2 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France

The Vann wrote: Bit early for this but Thomas went down in Switzerland today with suspected collarbone ( currently in hospital ). Dumoulin had gravel taken out of knee today and will miss teams final high altitude training so have taken some early doors on
Win
Pinot @ 18/1
Nibali @ 25/1


Ineos report except for scratches and bruises Thomas OK. Not ideal preparation for TdF but coming in slightly under cooked is sometimes not a bad tactic. Would not make the above bets now but was worth a shot yesterday (before prices changed) as I believe the tour would be wide open if Thomas does not start.

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1 month 4 weeks ago #3 by kt6747
Replied by kt6747 on topic Cycling : The Tour de France

The Vann wrote: Bit early for this but Thomas went down in Switzerland today with suspected collarbone ( currently in hospital ). Dumoulin had gravel taken out of knee today and will miss teams final high altitude training so have taken some early doors on
Win
Pinot @ 18/1
Nibali @ 25/1


Vann never to early for Tour De France topic. I have already started taking some early bets. So excited as hoping some team actually takes on Ineos.

My early punt down is on Uran @ 50/1 (E/W)

Still early but think EFF have a decent team and just hoping Wood just flu and nothing serious after Daphne.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #4 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Had my 1st look at the TDF route and this should be a great tour and in my view much more open than the betting suggests - can't wait to get involved

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1 month 2 weeks ago #5 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
I know he hasn't had the best build up and there is talk he won't like the heat but I am making an early play on Quintana at 18/1 Sportingbet

He will have a strong team, he should be ok in TTT and then just the ITT to get through - some serious altitude in this tour and I cannot think he will have a better chance

5 units Quintana win 18/1 Sporting

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1 month 2 weeks ago #6 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : The Tour de France

Brent Graham wrote: I know he hasn't had the best build up and there is talk he won't like the heat but I am making an early play on Quintana at 18/1 Sportingbet

He will have a strong team, he should be ok in TTT and then just the ITT to get through - some serious altitude in this tour and I cannot think he will have a better chance

5 units Quintana win 18/1 Sporting


I read somewhere that this is the TdF that will be the highest on aggregate ito meters above sea level. The first person I thought of when I heard this was Nairo. Reckon people are unsure whether he still has one last big grand tour in him but I reckon we are getting a cracking price at 18/1

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1 month 2 weeks ago #7 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Agree Couch his recent Grand Tour disappointments have people doubting but with no Froome in the race 18/1 has to be snapped up

He is 29 years old which is usually around when GT riders peak

The UDT Fantasy game looks likely to be a tough one this year - I love the format and it add so much to the Tour - here is the link cycling.big5games.com/tdf/restricted/Dashboard.j

League name Goodforthegame

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1 month 2 weeks ago #8 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Another early play - don't necessarily expect the price to move but in case I am getting on early

I was impressed by Buchmann in the Dauphine and while he doesnt have the strongest of climbing teams I think he could impress in July

1 unit Buchmann win 66/1
2 units Buchmann top 3 15/1 at Sunbet

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1 month 2 weeks ago #9 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Still three teams confirmed squads outstanding. Have looked at the course and agree with Brent - I like it. By far the most important GC stage is Stage 2 - the 27.6km TTT. This is why someone like Matthews has sacrificed three months of sprint training to pull Tommy D through the stage. ( As we know Tommy D is out ). For this stage Bahrain have included Dennis/Mohoric + Tratnik. MS have taken Hepburn specifically for this stage. Here is the Moviestar team - Quintana/Landa/Valverde/Soler/Erviti/Verona/Amador/Oliviera. I'm afraid this team sheds over a minute to Ineos/MS etc and I don't think that a team starting their 37th consecutive TdF ( under various guises ) would put out a team like this if they believed Quintana had any chance of winning. Nibali has stated he is here for KOM and stages and followed this up with - I will see how I feel after stage 6. He has a pretty darn good TTT squad there - so who knows?
This is the kind of post one makes waiting for the next footie game to start.
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1 month 2 weeks ago - 1 month 2 weeks ago #10 by kt6747
Replied by kt6747 on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Just a question, surely a bit of value is Micheal Woods @ 8/1 for a top 10 is a bit of value. He never rode Giro and if supporting Uran, surely he would be there or there abouts come the big climbs? Same surely for Wilco Kelderman, who is now pretty much team leader for Sunweb?

I just think that's something worth taking.
Last edit: 1 month 2 weeks ago by kt6747.

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1 month 2 weeks ago #11 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Will do my own little preview soon. The current price for Nairo is good but agree with Vann that it could go out even further after the TTT. Whilst the TTT will create separation from early doors Stage 6 will give us our first glimpse of who has climbing legs. What I like about this par course is that the ITT is done and dusted after stage 13. Thus it could be a case of Thomas having to fight off some crazy attacks in the last week with the pure climbers within a few minutes of the lead all looking to make up some serious ground on the overall. The stage 18, 19 and 20 block is going to be a thing of beauty!

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1 month 1 week ago - 1 month 1 week ago #12 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Busy picking potential out rights which I run past the Font of All Knowledge (The Missus) over our traditional bottle of champers watching the team presentation. Was wondering through Stage 1 to check sprinters when I noticed the UAE youngster down at 200/1 - can't be - his faster then 19 of the 23 guys above. Finished second behind Jacobsen and ahead of Sagan and Bouhanni in California recently. May not produce (to support Kristoff - but not a Kristoff stage) but certainly worth a shout at
Stage 1
1-3 Philipsen @ 50/1
Last edit: 1 month 1 week ago by The Vann.

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1 month 1 week ago #13 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Many thanks to Couch Critic for his outright preview and picks


goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/tour-...betting-preview.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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1 month 1 week ago #14 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
The problem with the Tour is the more you study the more confused you become

Outright Preview up tomorrow morning

CLICK HERE to get onto my TDF Mailing list where I share my thoughts on occasions over the 3 weeks

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1 month 1 week ago #15 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Tour de France Outright Preview and I fancy a match bet double Buchmann onto Benoot at 24/10

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1 month 1 week ago #16 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Have traditionally spent half my Grand Tour budgets on out rights but this has not paid dividends recently as the books are just much better at pricing up these days then they were 10 years ago. One does, however, still need to test one's abilities against the opposition so I am going with three out rights. There will be several beer out rights to follow later today but beers are typically 1/20 to 1/10 of a unit and placed to make watching interesting.
Nibali still has not decided if he is going for out right or KOM or stages. Bahrain have given him a good TT team and I think he will find himself pretty close to the leaders after stage 6 when he say's he will decide. In 2018 Cofidis beat Direct Energy by 24 minutes reversing the 34 minute loss from the 2017 tour. This match-up will be decided by which team gets into the most breaks and I favour the Direct Energy team. Only two sprinters are here with virtually full lead-out trains and only one of them wins when the stage runs over 200km.
TdF Out Rights
Top 6
Nibali @ 11/4
Team Match-Up
Direct Energy over Cofidis @ 5/4
To win over 0.5 stages
Ewan @ evens
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1 month 1 week ago #17 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
My beer out rights to keep the entertainment going. Have to take Quintana as I will feel like a dork on 28 July if he is cruising around the Champs-Elysees in yellow and I'm the only one on GFTG not making a penny.
To win over 0.5 stages
de Gendt @ 3/1
de Marchi @ 7/2
To win over 1.5 stages
Ewan @ 4/1
To win team competition
Ineos @ 7/2
Match Bet Double
Buchmann over Martin into
Caruso over Vuillermoz @ 32/10

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1 month 1 week ago #18 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Thanks Vann - interesting I was also eyeing Caruso in that match bet

Guys here is the code to the UDT Fantasy League

18959529806189

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1 month 1 week ago #19 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France

Brent Graham wrote: Thanks Vann - interesting I was also eyeing Caruso in that match bet

Guys here is the code to the UDT Fantasy League

18959529806189


OK so that's the piddling little money side dealt with - Now we sort the men from the boys - No passing out on the back seat of cars for the manne:woohoo: Let the games begin.
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1 month 1 week ago #20 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Stage 1
Besides the Philipsen bet above two for me
Win
Ewan @ 7/2
Match Bet
Stuyven over Trentin @ 18/10

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1 month 1 week ago #21 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Stage 1 Preview



0.5 units Cobrelli 20/1
1.5 units Cobrelli podium 4/1

2 units Double Thomas/Bernal Sobrelli/Matthews at 24/10

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1 month 1 week ago #22 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Don’t punt the tour like I used to many years ago but after a whole 10 minutes research I’ve gone for outright -

FUGLSANG 11/2
BARDET 22/1

a nice interest for next 3 weeks.

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1 month 1 week ago #23 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
I'm also in the Ewan camp for the opener.

Caleb Ewan to win @ 9/2

Twitter: @HDiemont
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1 month 1 week ago #24 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Stiffs on Buchmann there Brent - Lousy to lose an out right on the first stage. Was not going to bet this stage but with Thomas going down Ineos are first off in the TTT - not easy to win from that position.
Stage 2 TTT
Win
MS @ 11/2

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1 month 1 week ago #25 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Wow those crashes hurt me yesterday and that is sad about Buchmann - Cobrelli gave me a run but faded and what a day to be a bookie - not even the winners mom backed him - the Thomas crash also ruining my match bet

A slow start and taking it easy today

1 unit MScott 5/1 Sunbet (thanks Vann)

0.5 unit CCC top 3 9/1 Sunbet

Update and preview below


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1 month 1 week ago #26 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Wow those crashes hurt me yesterday and that is sad about Buchmann - Cobrelli gave me a run but faded and what a day to be a bookie - not even the winners mom backed him - the Thomas crash also ruining my match bet

A slow start and taking it easy today

1 unit MScott 5/1 Sunbet (thanks Vann)

0.5 unit CCC top 3 9/1 Sunbet

Update and preview below


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1 month 1 week ago #27 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
EF have come off good recent form whilst QS aren't as strong as they could be.
EF over Quick-Step @ 6/5 with Sunbet

Double:
CCC over Katusha onto MS over QS @ 13/10 (WSB)

And an outside nibble on Bora not being at top speeds with the Buchmann issue
Movi over Bora @ 19/10 with WSB

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1 month 1 week ago #28 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France

Couch Critic wrote:
Double:
CCC over Katusha onto MS over QS @ 13/10 (WSB)


Yep - will have me some of that

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1 month 1 week ago #29 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Took a unit Ineos 10/1 in running

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1 month 1 week ago #30 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Missed the first 2 stages so my tour starts on Monday, going with Nils Pollit at 150/1 and Matthews at 8/1. Could well be persuaded to add others :)

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1 month 1 week ago #31 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Great ride by Jumbo yesterday and a slow start to Le Tour for me

Stage 3 bets

2 units Alaphilippe over Sagan at 1/1 Sunbet
0.5 unit Bettiol win 33/1

Here is the preview and betting update


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1 month 1 week ago #32 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Horrible TTT outing for me - just shows why I usually stay away from them!

I reckon bookies are underestimating Stage 3. The only concern with not throwing more cash at this stage is that it will be difficult to control late attacks. But for mind it should be between the big three - Sagan (if it's a touch easier than I think), Ala P (if it's exactly as I expect) and Valverde (if it's a touch tougher). If there are number of riders going up that final 500 meters together then I don't see anyone stopping one of those 3 from taking the win.

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1 month 1 week ago - 1 month 1 week ago #33 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Of course there is just no value in backing those 3 really so here are my speculative picks for Stage 3, all basically based on late attacks or some form of reduced sprint:

To win
Tim Wellens @ 50/1
Tiesj Benoot @ 90/1
Lutsenko @ 110/1
Mohoric @ 138/1

Match-ups which I feel offer value:
Porte over Kruisjwijk @ 7/4
Bettiol over Colbrelli @ 16/10
Thomas over Bernal @ 11/10
Trentin over Colbrelli @ 7/5

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Last edit: 1 month 1 week ago by Couch Critic.

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1 month 1 week ago #34 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Ditto on the TTT. Surprised A Yates ran out of legs so early and had to be carried to the line.
Stage 3
Ned Boulting rode the last km an hour ago and reports it has quite a kick - probably Alaphilippe territory. He's a little short so two places for me
1-3
Valverde @ 13/2
Wellens @ 12/1

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1 month 1 week ago #35 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Also adding a top 3 play Vann,

Tiesj Benoot at 16/1. If Ewan doesn't get over the climbs in touch I guess Wellens is the most likely from the team and they potentially have multiple cards to play. Maybe Wednesday is a better day for Benoot but I'll kick myself if he pops up and Ive left him out..

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1 month 1 week ago #36 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
10 units Benoot/Barguil at 11/20 Sunbet - like to have a couple of strikes on these sort of bets over the course of the tour

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1 month 1 week ago #37 by kt6747
Replied by kt6747 on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Stage 4 looks like a rare dare for the sprinters with only a few small climbs.

I have taken Ewan/Sagan @ 11/10

If Ewan gets over the final climb in pelaton, should have the pace to beat Sagan.

Enjoy the stage

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1 month 1 week ago #38 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Bettiol a no show but preview matchbet arrives as does the reckless 11/20 play on Benoot so at least I am off the mark

I have a feeling stage 4 is going to be exciting, it will surely end in a sprint but I have a feeling a few of the sprinters will battle to get back after that final climb

Stage 4 Bets


I like Viviani to win the stage but he is a bit short for me

0.5 units Van Aert win 50/1
1 unit Viviani/Groen, Nizzolo/Kristoff Ewan/Sagan at 4.7/1 Hollywood

Reasoning in the video preview


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1 month 1 week ago #39 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Stage 4
Not sure whether Groenewegen is at 100% and there is always a small question mark for me re Viviani when the stage runs over 200km
Ewan @ 9/2
Sagan over Viviani @ 23/20

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1 month 1 week ago #40 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Jeepers that was a corker of a stage yesterday!!

Nothing for me on Stage 4 gents. Just don't have a solid feeling either way so I will sit out.

Just a little extra outright nibble from me:
Omar Fraile - King of the Mountains @ 125/1
He looked to have a little go for the points yesterday so just taking a small nibble in case he is indeed in the mix for the polka

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1 month 1 week ago #41 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
-1 unit so far and quite a few long term units pending

Tomorrows stage should be great viewing - will we see the Yellow Jersey in the break? I think so

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1 month 1 week ago #42 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Stage 5 bets

I think Alaphilippe is a worthy fav but will go for a variety of bets - explanations in the video

0.5 units Bettiol 28/1 Hollywood
5 units Alaphilippe/Sagan at 8/10 Sunbet (I almost made this a 10 unit strike)
1 unit winning margin 2 seconds or more 22/10 Sunbet

Video Preview


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1 month 1 week ago #43 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Stage 5, Mohoric for me at around 40/1, way back in the standings so should be allowed into break if he fancy's it and he is a great descender.

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1 month 1 week ago #44 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Tough for a break to succeed so early in the tour but this stage just looks perfectly suited. Of course a lot will depend on what mood QS are in - Ala P is well suited to this stage so they could chase quite hard both for the stage and to keep the yellow but if someone like Bora don't help out it could be tough for them.

The odds on some breakaway candidates are just too tasty to pass up so I will take a stab at a few who have different winning options. Wellens and Schachmann are rightly also near the top of the boards for this one and I'm sure Chris will be all over TdG today! But here are my plays:
Lutsenko @ 40/1
Mohoric @ 43/1
Olivier Naesen @ 119/1
Jose Goncalves @ 170/1

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1 month 1 week ago #45 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Both of you on Mohoric!

0.5 units down for me - could only get 33/1

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1 month 1 week ago #46 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : The Tour de France

mackem wrote: Stage 5, Mohoric for me at around 40/1, way back in the standings so should be allowed into break if he fancy's it and he is a great descender.


What - no Tommy G?! Clearly that means he wins this...!:P

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1 month 1 week ago #47 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Lol, me swerving Tommy dG has bitten me more than once in the past, still love the guy but not for me today. Have added van Avermaet each way and also made Mohoric each way.


GvA didn't contest sprint yesterday by the look of it so think he will target this one. Sticking to those 2 but could have put 10 riders in there, looking forward to this one and Thursday, what a shame tomorrow clashes with cricket.

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1 month 1 week ago #48 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Well that's the four easy punting stages and I have zilch to show from them. Will follow you fellows today on Mohoric and the Alaphilppe match bet. Can't have a stage like this without Tommy D so he is in at 22/1. Adding one
1-3
G Martin @ 100/1

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1 month 1 week ago #49 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
1 unit Schachmann 11/1 with 42 to go

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1 month 1 week ago #50 by Matador
Replied by Matador on topic Cycling : The Tour de France
Sagan is a beast.

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