Cycling : La Vuelta Espana

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4 years 7 months ago #1 by The Vann
Cycling : La Vuelta Espana was created by The Vann
The last Grand Tour of the season with what looks like a pretty decent cast of GC hopefulls. Would have to say the route appears to lend itself to an early contender getting a jump on the opposition and hanging on for the win - something like Carapaz at the Giro. There are 8 mountain top finishes but they are spread rather strangely - 3 in first week - 4 in second week and 1 after the last rest day on stage 20. Stage 18 may also influence GC with 4 big climbs but with a 25km run-in probably not as much as the organisers would hope. Time trials consist of a TTT over 14km on stage 1 and 36km virtually flat ITT on stage 10.
I can see why Roglic tops the boards as he usually starts fast - is going to take 30-60 seconds off Superman and Carapaz over the ITT and will probably not be caught if he has around 45 sec in hand for the final week.
Am going to try and avoid too many outrights as I have been burned recently but one oddity did catch my eye. Fuglsang started as third favorite in the TdF but starts at 33/1 - with 10/1 on offer for podium. There is some doubt around his form with the w/d at the TdF and one presumes he will be required to ride in support of Lopez but those podium odds still look rather attractive.
Will post any bets after team presentation on Thursday
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4 years 7 months ago #2 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Guys Will Newton is back and does an excellent overall preview on Twitter @Insidepeloton96

His KOM pick of Nieve who is 25/1 particularly tempting

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4 years 7 months ago #3 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
I like Astana for the team comp - Jumbo look strongest but Astana have so much depth and I can see them targeting this - generally 7/1 but 11/1 at Hollywood

2 units Astana team comp 11/1 at Hollywood

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4 years 7 months ago #4 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
KOM

2 units Nieve 28/1 Hollywood (following Will on this one)
0.5 units Chavez 40/1 WSB

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4 years 7 months ago #5 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Outrights have been rubbish on this years Grand Tours so limiting myself to three up front. Will probably look at the KOM after the first mountain top on stage 5.
Top 10
Fuglsang @ 15/10
Top 3
Surely he can't fall 4 times by stage 14 as he did in the Giro
Geoghegan Hart @ 11/2
Team Comp
The Carapaz withdrawal is a big blow to Movistar
EF Education @ 11/2
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4 years 7 months ago #6 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Big thanks to Couch Critic for this outright preview

goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/viva-...betting-preview.html


Couch's picks with BetOlimp

To win the race – MA Lopez @ 3.55

KOM Winner – Hugh Carthy @ 38.00 or Daniel Martinez @ 37.00

Special: Podium finish - Tao Gheoghegan Hart @ 7.50

Special: Top 10 – Sergio Higuita @ 3.40

Special: Number of stage wins – Sam Bennett over 2.5 @ 2.30

twitter: @goodforthegame
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4 years 7 months ago #7 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Stage 1
Would normally wait until tomorrow to post stage bets but wrote down my caps and checked a few books. EF Education finished 6th at the TdF TTT (Stage 2) just 7 seconds off podium and are carrying a similar or better team. All the teams that beat them that day are carrying substantially weaker TT squads. They may have to carry Higuita slightly but I capped them at odds on to podium - around 17/20. Have taken this at Sportingbet
Top 3
EF Education @ 51/20
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4 years 7 months ago #8 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana

The Vann wrote: Stage 1
Would normally wait until tomorrow to post stage bets but wrote down my caps and checked a few books. EF Education finished 6th at the TdF TTT (Stage 2) just 7 seconds off podium and are carrying a similar or better team. All the teams that beat them that day are carrying substantially weaker TT squads. They may have to carry Higuita slightly but I capped them at odds on to podium - around 17/20. Have taken this at Sportingbet
Top 3
EF Education @ 51/20


Noticed they have shortened to 31/20 today at Sportingbet. I believe they are still value at anything over the 13/10 mark.

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4 years 7 months ago #9 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Still intend to decide on KOM around stage 5 but was going through the odds when I noticed this at Sunbet - just way too long in my opinion so a few beers on
KOM
Soler @ 125/1

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4 years 7 months ago #10 by kt6747
Replied by kt6747 on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana

The Vann wrote:

The Vann wrote: Stage 1
Would normally wait until tomorrow to post stage bets but wrote down my caps and checked a few books. EF Education finished 6th at the TdF TTT (Stage 2) just 7 seconds off podium and are carrying a similar or better team. All the teams that beat them that day are carrying substantially weaker TT squads. They may have to carry Higuita slightly but I capped them at odds on to podium - around 17/20. Have taken this at Sportingbet
Top 3


Noticed they have shortened to 31/20 today at Sportingbet. I believe they are still value at anything over the 13/10 mark.


Still available at 17/10 @ Sunbet

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4 years 7 months ago #11 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Stage 2 Sunday, I like Patrick Bevin, been a fan of his for a while and reckon he can stay in contention over this last climb and still pack a sprint, 40/1 or so looks good value to me. Also nibbled at Battaglin at same price and a little saver on Gilbert who would fancy the overall lead no doubt. . .

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4 years 7 months ago #12 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Missed yesterdays action and the Jumbo crash has caused a bit of a shake up in the betting.

Stage 2 is a typical Vuelta sprint stage that gives the pure sprinters no chance LOL - here are my selections

1 unit Gilbert 14/1
1/2 unit Aranburu 25/1 Sunbet
1/2 unit Bevin 66/1 Sunbet
1/4 unit Roche 125/1 WSB (Will Newtons pic)
1/4 unit Muhlberger 125/1 Sunbet (also on Wills shortlist)

Here is the video preview


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4 years 7 months ago #13 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Was very impressed I did not go overboard on outrights so I treated myself to double units on yesterdays shoe-in stage bet and got burnt by a few seconds. First part of the course was just more technical then I read it.
Stage 2
Higuita @ 22/1
Battaglin @ 33/1
Venturini @ 40/1

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4 years 7 months ago #14 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Reckon Astana would love to lose the jersey yet have too much pride to let a break go. Also a semi decent climber will be needed to make the break so will he tough deciding who can be "allowed" to get away (the favourites wont want an Ala P situation as in the Tour).

So for mind I see that beautiful short final climb being the decider for the stage - man I wish they just finished on its summit!

Reduced sprint for me and here are my darts:
Stybar @ 40/1. QS likely yo use the Gilbert-Stybar double and at the better price I'm hoping the latter stays away.
Dylan Theuns @ 36/1
Brambilla @ 44/1

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4 years 7 months ago #15 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Great stage yesterday and heartbreaking that Roche ran 2nd from that group but brilliant pic from Will at 125/1

No video preview for me today and won't be betting but fancy Bennett but cannot take 8/10 in the Vuelta and a bit worried he dropped before the climb yesterday although may have realised he had no chance and decided to save energy - up until then his team appeared to be riding for him

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4 years 7 months ago - 4 years 7 months ago #16 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Some brilliant action up the climb yesterday and I still maintain those shorter steep hills often cause bigger shake-ups that the long steady climbs. Crazy to see Ineos almost out of GC contention after two stages! Clearly De La Cruz is now their man. Also lads who took a knock yesterday (and already had question marks coming in) include Kruisj and Fuglsang.

Roglic back to strong favourite but I was actually suprised that he didn't haul Nairo in. Roglic the TT king surely should have been able to pin his ears back and pull in the pure climber with 3km of flat to the line...

Took Bennett over 2.5 wins pre race so need him to get the first one under the belt today.

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Last edit: 4 years 7 months ago by Couch Critic.

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4 years 7 months ago #17 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Brilliant stage yesterday and very close on that Roche pick. Did look more interested in getting red then winning the stage though. Sadly another bad day for my outrights. Fuglsang confirmed his main target is the Worlds and Ineos imploded so 2 of 3 outrights gone by stage 2.
Stage 3
Agree with everyone a battle between the top 3 sprinters so no value with Bennett being so short. Have to have a beer for the watch so maybe The Boss starts his sprint early and only gets caught by 2 of the 3
Top 3
Boasson Hagen @ 5/1

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4 years 7 months ago #18 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Stage 4 is another which only gets a few beers from me for the watch. Flat sprint stage but 6 roundabouts in last 5km with 2km of last 4km exposed to wind and rain expected to make conditions slippery. GC teams jostling with sprint teams on a dangerous run-in. Definitely smalls today lads.
No doubt that Bennett is the fastest in the field but Quickstep have proved over the years that they are the best organised in tough conditions so going with
Win
Jakobsen @ 5/1

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4 years 7 months ago #19 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Roll of 100/1 dice on Thomas de Gendt, reckon he pinches the mountain points and might bid for a 40km solo or whatever it is.

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4 years 7 months ago #20 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Well played yesterday Vann - gee that was as close a finish as you can get without it being a dead heat.

No interest for me the last 2 days but today's finishing climb is a brute and have to have an interest, also time to get my outright money down

Stage 5:
0.5u Chavez 25/1Sunbet
0.5u Aru 40/1 WSB
1u Quintana/Lopez at 5/2 WSB

Outright
2u Chaves Top 3 at 5/1 WSB
1u Chaves win at 25/1

Here is the video preview


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4 years 7 months ago #21 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Wout Poels my main pick for Wednesday at 40/1 WSB, lost more time yesterday, hopefully with today's break in mind then a beer on Cappechi at 200/1 in case he gets in the break and from the GC Letour at 33/1

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4 years 7 months ago #22 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Yes please! Proper stage coming up.

(Nicely done yesterday Vann - top stuff!)

Stage 5:
Brambilla @ 79/1
Atapuma @ 150/1 (when the road goes up I need him in my ranks)
Pardilla @ 330/1
Segio Henao @ 340/1

My one from the favourites:
Pogacar @ 22/1

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4 years 7 months ago - 4 years 7 months ago #23 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
@Brent - I'm sure I've missed one stage since 1981 - just don't remember it anymore.
Stage 5
Lopez only wins this stage if he rides away from everyone. He has the slowest 50m uphill sprint of the main contenders. Taking Teuns to cover the break and I believe there is a lot of merit in Brent's match bet as Quintana is going to sit on Lopez's wheel all the way up.
Win
Roglic @ 15/2
Teuns @ 25/1
Top 3
Aru @ 8/1
Match bet
Quintana over Lopez @ 25/10
Last edit: 4 years 7 months ago by The Vann.

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4 years 7 months ago #24 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Chucking in a late one purely because the odds are too long if he is carrying any kind of form after his injury absence
Martinez @ 150/1

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4 years 6 months ago #25 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Wow what a day for the bookmakers - doubt that lad would have been quoted in double figures and even in running looked dead and buried and the Cofidis rider would surely have got all the action

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4 years 6 months ago #26 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
A guy I follow on Twitter had him and Herrada @ 400/1! Reckon if that Bol oke won he might have looked for the nearest bridge... :)

Jeez Lopez and Roglic (and Valverde at this stage) look a different league to the rest right now. This really could become a two-horse race from quite far out if this trend continues.

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4 years 6 months ago #27 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
I see I also follow a guy - usually tips about 11 riders on a stage but I guess at those prices you don't have to go big

Win only action for me today

1u Aranburu 22/1 wsb
0.5u J Herrada 22/1 Sunbet
0.5u Guerreiro 40/1 Sunbet

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4 years 6 months ago #28 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Love it when the little guy wins and the team deserved it. Riders in every break.
Stage 6
Strangely many in the cycling community are calling today a GC finish? Would fancy Higuita if this were the case but I'm going to stick with a few darts at a break
De Gendt @ 16/1
Izagirre Ion @ 99/1
Grosschartner @ 99/1
Will keep an eye on the break and will probably go in play if I come up empty with the above.

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4 years 6 months ago #29 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
I'm with Vann on de Gendt, really fancy a break with GC perhaps keeping powder dry for tomorrow, I've also retained a small interest in Poels at 40/1 and Capecchi at 200/1.

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4 years 6 months ago #30 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
A further long term interest -

1u Edet KOM at 30/1 Sunbet

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4 years 6 months ago #31 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Conti @ 47/1
Gilbert @ 59/1
King @ 77/1

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4 years 6 months ago #32 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
A new record for The Vann guys. Stage 6 of a Grand Tour and my last outright crashes and burns with Uran and Carthy performing perfect Ha-Ha landings (Head/Arse/Heels/Ambulance for those who have not jumped out of planes)

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4 years 6 months ago #33 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Stiff Vann - the team was looking good

Herrada opens my account - tomorrow should be a cracker

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4 years 6 months ago #34 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Well played yesterday Brent,

I can't get in a blow right now, chancing these okes on Friday, this last climb short but brutal

Latour 50/1
Chavez 25/1
Navarro 50/1

Enjoy the stage

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4 years 6 months ago #35 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Good call yesterday Brent. My EF team bet was looking good as they had placed TJ to track Oliveira in the break and were interested in that competition but that's all history now.
Stage 7
Looks like GC to me but will try and cover both eventualities.
Valverde @ 10/1
Chavez @ 25/1
Martinez @ 40/1
and not going to make the mistake of leaving the KOM leader out of a mountain stage again
e/w
Madrazo @ 229/1

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4 years 6 months ago #36 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Very rushed

a unit Poels 10/1

0.5 u Eg 28/1

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4 years 6 months ago #37 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Sorry guys - had 2 bets last night and didn't add anything else. Think it will be a GC day and cant see anyone beating Superman but at his current odds might as well wait for in-running to judge the break first.

Only bets thus far for Stage 7:
Gheoghegan Hart @ 40/1
Martinez @ 50/1

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4 years 6 months ago #38 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Well played with Valverde yesterday Vann. Saturday, Patrick Bevin to break my duck at 40/1. Decent profile for him to contest

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4 years 6 months ago #39 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Nice of the old guy to hang tough. Vuelta has put too many smiles on books faces thus far.
Stage 8
De Gendt @ 12/1
Aranburu @ 14/1
Smith @ 66/1

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4 years 6 months ago #40 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Tough stage - reckon it goes to break
Herrada 18/1
Bevin for Mackem at 40/1

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4 years 6 months ago #41 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Wow! Stage 9 looks mental. Five climbs within less than 100kms of racing (okay I suppose we can actually combine the last 3 into one mega climb). Either way there is no hiding from this stage!

I have an interest on Madrazo for KOM so this is a crucial stage for my hopes. I need no breaks on the first climb or alternatively need the KOM leader to be in the break and get some points on the first 2 mountains. The problem is that whether we see a GC battle or not this stage is all about the REAL climbers. I reckon my man is going to be toppled today unfortunately.

I have no doubt that one of Poels or Geogheganhart will try the early move along with at least one of the EF lads. The problem is that other proper climbers will be called on for GC duty (think Soler, Fuglsang, Gesink and Cataldo) whilst others could be deemed too close to be let go (Nieve and Aru?) so it will be tough for someone to win from the break for mind.

Perhaps the best chance for someone other than Valverde, Nairo, Roglic or Lopez is to wait for the big four to play games and seize your chance knowing they dont need to chase you immediately. Thinking - Majka, Latour, Chavez, Aru & Pogacar.

Astana have one serious team and I see them giving it fulll beans today. Soler looks to be finding his legs which is great news for Movi as I reckon they should win the stage if they play the one-two with Nairo and ValV after Astana has done all the hard work during the day.

It's pretty much all in for Nairo for me today. I've struggled to catch him right but he looks to have the legs. Bala to go early and Quintana to finish the job when he's caught.
Nairo @ 6/1
Majka @ 40/1

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4 years 6 months ago #42 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
I've gone with Poels, if it rains (I read there is a chance it could be wet but haven't seen latest forecast) the overall leaders might be a bit more steady going downhill. I've had a saver on the favourite Lopez to cover the stake on Poels and a beer

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4 years 6 months ago #43 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
My play carries the same logic Mackem. Lopez to win covers the rest plus an evenings beers.
Lopez @ 3/1
Geoghegan Hart @ 46/1
Martinez @ 49/1
Rodriguez @ 66/1
and some match bet odds are too long so a double
Geoghegan Hart over Poels into
Kuss over Soler @ shade over 8/1
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4 years 6 months ago #44 by kt6747
Replied by kt6747 on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Thanks guys and for a small interest followed with Hart and added 2 old fav's of mine

Navarro @ 150/1
Attapuma @ 150/1

Enjoy the afternoon

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4 years 6 months ago #45 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
Should be a great stage - 0.5u on

Poels 14/1 - we keep on waiting for this guy and deliver
Nieve 33/1 - KOM challenge starts here
Aru 40/1 - hoping like Will suggests on twitter he gets in the break

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4 years 6 months ago #46 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
I can't see past Roglic today, at this point just a 14/10 double

Cradoock/Arndt Oliviera/Bevin

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4 years 6 months ago #47 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
I can't see past Roglic today, at this point just a 14/10 double

2 u Cradoock/Arndt Oliviera/Bevin at 14/10

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4 years 6 months ago #48 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
10u Roglic at 0.42/1 Sunbet

0.5u Barta top 3 66/1 Sunbet

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4 years 6 months ago #49 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
You are a brave man BG - a 4/10 cycling bet? Looks like a lock to me barring accidents.
Sunday's covering bet on Lopez did not pan out as he crashed but going with another cover bet today
Stage 10
Stage to be won by more then 10sec - yes @ 11/20
to cover stakes on
Top 3
Pogacar @ 4/1
Match bet double
Roglic over Kiryienka into
Soler over I Izagirre @ 18/10

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4 years 6 months ago #50 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
I was torn between Roglic outright and the over 10 seconds Vann

These are cycling units not rugby units LOL

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