European Rugby 29 Nov to 1 Dec

Look no further than Bath on the plus Brent. A true gift.

What's the logic behind this? I would have said the Saracens minus. Bath looked terrible against the Quins, but the conditions were horrific I guess.

Connacht -16.5 @0.85 vs Kings

Still no Catrakilis. 7 props injured. Could be a cricket score.

PRO14 Early Bet 3 leg multi

@ 7.00 $ XX

Munster -10.5 @ 1.92
Points Start
Munster v Edinburgh

Connacht -17.50 @ 1.92
Points Start
Connacht v Kings

Dragons -9.5 @ 1.90
Points Start
Dragons v Zebre

Save some powder for the Cheetah-train guys

alike wrote: What's the logic behind this? I would have said the Saracens minus. Bath looked terrible against the Quins, but the conditions were horrific I guess.

SARACENS, SARACENS SARACENS currently -3.7 tabnz What a gift! Betting half now and double down on team announcement

Has anybody else noticed that the Saracens 2019/ 2020 Team is actually stronger than the 2018/2019 Team. Eliot Daly debut was fantastic. Not a cheap acquisition. Especially when you have just been fined 5 million pounds. Have not read anywhere of players being released lol They have pulled the wool over the entire Premiership with "prepayments" and or Joint Ventures. Not to mention (IMHO) their ingenius "Marquee" player loop hole. Everyone else proudly announces their marquee player. Saracens just go about their business. Pay Farrell a marquee mint one year. Next year it is a Vunipola etc etc. No wonder they decided not to appeal.

Saracens cannot win the Premiership this year (due to penalties), so once they overtake the Tigers, it will be all hands on deck for the Heineken Cup.

Betting Saracens to lift the trophy. Currently paying $7 tabnz Cheers 3P

PS : What are you doing up so early today Kirky, or are you on vacation somewhere else? Sale winning by 10 was a heartbreaker, two missed penalties and playing only 14 or 13 in the second half! Robbed!

threepeat wrote:
SARACENS, SARACENS SARACENS currently -3.7 tabnz What a gift! Betting half now and double down on team announcement.

Rugby4cast.com disagrees with you bud, they say Bath by 1 (insert drum-roll here)

Mid-morning here already 3P, 8am. Things to do, places to be...
Also, all my vacation money's gone to the bookies. Wife's well-pissed I can tell you...

Kirky wrote:
Rugby4cast.com disagrees with you bud, they say Bath by 1 (insert drum-roll here)

If Bath could not beat Harlequins last week. They have no chance v Sarries! Saracens ran rampage last weekend at home, so no idea what Rugby4Cast have loaded into their algorithm that skewers the game in favour of Bath. Madness.

You cannot rely solely on algorithms (besides a superior rugby algorithm than Rugby4cast gives Sarries the thumbs up).

Line is now Sarries -7.5 Still good betting. Lot of Top Sarries rested last weekend, and they be chomping at the bit.

threepeat wrote: Saracens cannot win the Premiership this year (due to penalties), so once they overtake the Tigers, it will be all hands on deck for the Heineken Cup.

Betting Saracens to lift the trophy. Currently paying $7 tabnz Cheers 3P

PS : What are you doing up so early today Kirky, or are you on vacation somewhere else? Sale winning by 10 was a heartbreaker, two missed penalties and playing only 14 or 13 in the second half! Robbed!

I tend to disagree with Sarries to lift the H-Cup
By the time they overtake the Tigers, it will be already too late as the next 2 European games are planned next week and the following and the last 2 early January so if the focus stays on the Gallagher, and rest key players during H-Cup, no way they will make it to the quarter finals - if they lose @ Munster in 10 days, end of the story for them.

Early fancies:
Sarries -7.5 although took -5.5 yesterday. Bath home record suggests plus is way to go but haven’t been impressed with Bath last two weeks and I’m gambling it’ll be a near full international Sarries side aiming at 5 points.

Brive -3.5. Would like some input here from Monsieur Bradie82. Brive seem to have rested players vs Bristol and will be targeting Stade Francais as a must win to stay in Top14.

Will wait on team news on the rest to see what teams are resting players for next round of Euro

BDub
I like the Brive -3.5 (may I ask you on which bookie you found it please?)
This is indeed a mst win for Brive but also for SF - that said, SF has been very poor for the past weeks, incredibly rubbish lastweek end and winning @ Brive will be very complicated. With lst of the players rested for the past 2 weeks, this is a good bet

bradie82 wrote: BDub
I like the Brive -3.5 (may I ask you on which bookie you found it please?)
This is indeed a mst win for Brive but also for SF - that said, SF has been very poor for the past weeks, incredibly rubbish lastweek end and winning @ Brive will be very complicated. With lst of the players rested for the past 2 weeks, this is a good bet

Found at Betway and quite a few other local South African books. I haven’t capitalized on Stade the past few weeks and been kicking myself. SF were in mutiny mode with Heyneke and not sure they’ll just turn that around in two weeks. If Brive don’t win here they’ll never survive. SF also seemed to have played strong team vs Zebre so not much rest on the cards.

threepeat wrote:
Line is now Sarries -7.5 Still good betting. Lot of Top Sarries rested last weekend, and they be chomping at the bit.

Line opened everywhere at -7.5 except at my two USELESS BOOKIES - Sunbet and Sportingbet. They have yet to open...

Just looked TabNZ still at -7.5

Apologies to Sunbet, they're wonderful bookies they've just opened with Sarries @ -7.5 and I've taken a load

Hi Kirky, Most SA books are still around -8.5, including betxchange. Sure seems like an early Black Friday special

BDub wrote: Early fancies:
Sarries -7.5 although took -5.5 yesterday. Bath home record suggests plus is way to go but haven’t been impressed with Bath last two weeks and I’m gambling it’ll be a near full international Sarries side aiming at 5 points.

Brive -3.5. Would like some input here from Monsieur Bradie82. Brive seem to have rested players vs Bristol and will be targeting Stade Francais as a must win to stay in Top14.

Will wait on team news on the rest to see what teams are resting players for next round of Euro

Have added Cheetahs -5.5 at world sports bet. Ospreys internationals should be in camp and playing for Wales this wknd. Also heaps of injuries. Cheetahs should be refreshed although not their strongest team. Should cover this cap.

An interest on Saracens -6.5 @ 1.82 on 888
Not going crazy here as all star players have not played for a month so not sure how they will be on the field

Wales is playing the Barbarians this week end :
Cardiff : 8 players involved
Scarlets : 11 players involved
Dragons : 8 players involved

Adding a Saracens x Ulster x Treviso @ 1.90

Taking some Bayonne +22.5 @ 1.82 on 888
Toulouse just played 2 European game with their full squad and with 2 European games following the top 14 this week end, I think the international players will be rested (not sure what is the rule but all international have a minimum of few weeks to take during the year after the WC).
On the other hand, Bayonne is already out of the Challenge Cup, made huge turnover for both games so they could bring their best squad to Toulouse on sunday and rest again the following the two weeks.

bradie82 wrote:
I tend to disagree with Sarries to lift the H-Cup
By the time they overtake the Tigers, it will be already too late as the next 2 European games are planned next week and the following and the last 2 early January so if the focus stays on the Gallagher, and rest key players during H-Cup, no way they will make it to the quarter finals - if they lose @ Munster in 10 days, end of the story for them.

We agree to disagree Bradie, but thank you for making me look at the numbers more carefully.

Sarries do not have to actually overtake Tigers, they merely have to be on the right trajectory. Currently Sarries are on -22 and Tigers are on 4. If this pattern continues Sarries will go above Tigers in Round 16 of the Premiership. With six rounds to go at that point, they will avoid relegation but not be able to qualify for the Premiership playoffs, Last year fourth qualifier was Northampton on 56.
Therefore they will be putting resources earlier into making the Quarter Finals of the Heineken Cup. A bet paying 7-1 is always a long way from a sure thing Odds are clearly in your favour on this won Bradie. Not to mention how strong Leinster are this year and how they think it is their year to lift the H -Cup. Cheers 3P

Owen Farrell, Maro Itoje and Billy Vunipola look set to boost Saracens’ Premiership survival bid with the director of rugby, Mark McCall, revealing the England trio are closing in on their returns for the club.

McCall welcomed back Mako Vunipola, George Kruis and Jamie George for Saturday’s thumping Champions Cup win over Ospreys, as well as handing a debut to Elliot Daly as Saracens kept alive their European campaign, but omitted Farrell, Itoje and Billy Vunipola.

While the captain, Brad Barritt, was adamant Saracens can still successfully defend their European title, he acknowledged Premiership survival is the priority with his side 26 points adrift at the foot of the table following their 35-point deduction and £5.4m fine for breaching the salary cap.

Saracens travel to Bath on Friday for their first Premiership match since formally accepting their punishment for the first of four domestic fixtures for which they will have their England players available before they depart to begin Six Nations preparations. McCall said last week he does not expect them to forgo their international commitments.

McCall also said the salary cap scandal had not affected the decision over when his England players would make their comebacks but he did strongly hint that Farrell, Itoje and Billy Vunipola would be in the frame to face Bath.

“We were determined regardless to make decisions with them, not for them, about the appropriate time for them to return, when they’re physically ready and emotionally ready,” McCall said. “We’re getting to the stage where the three that didn’t play are pretty keen to get back, which is exactly what we want.”

Following Racing 92’s 21-21 draw with Munster, those two sides occupy the top two spots in Pool 4 on seven points with Saracens in third on five. Next month’s double header with Munster looks set to be decisive in determining whether Saracens reach the knockout stages and, while Barritt conceded they cannot give the competition as much focus as in previous years, he believes if his side do reach the quarter-finals, “all bets are off”.

He added: “We are still going into this competition wanting to win it. If there are three or four guys who can’t play on a weekend, so be it. But make no mistake, this Saracens team wants to win this trophy.

Bradie the three England Saracen guys that started last weekend looked world class. Do not worry about Farrell, Itoje and Billy Vunipola starting slow this week. They are world class superstars in top knick, chomping at the bit with something to prove.
Predicting a Bath for Bath in Bath. Saracens 13+ Cheers 3P

Indeed agree to disagree on that one

I understand your rationale and yes it could be the outcome but one other point I missed is that all their stars will probably be out for the 6 Nations and therefore they could go above Tigers later than round 16 so have to keep that in mind.
On top of that, I can’t see them bringing their big guns @ Munster in 10 days are and risk any potential injuries. Focus will be the Gallagher and only the Gallagher I reckon.
Final point on their stars back last week end, I am sorry but I will never consider Daly as a star! Still don t understand how he made the world cup, stayed in the squad while he was the weakest link of that team! And with Goode at 15 he has no chance against as they dont play in the same league imho.

I think the Varsity Cup teams could look world class against Ospreys. Sarries were actually exceptionally poor in that game.

I stand by my Bath plus as the best bet of the round. Bath are a quality outfit at the Rec and have many internationals in their ranks with match fitness. Throw in a night time kick off and inclement weather which nullifies Sarries expansive play. This will be a close one.

Watson and Ewels will both be out for few weeks

Bradie you have been getting "Fake News"

The stories floating around about loyal Saracens are Fake News. England have an arrangement with Premiership Clubs whereby they have the right to chose whoever they want for Six Nations. On top of that England pays 25 thousand pounds per man test fee (do not know player / club split, if any). Going to give up one hundred and twenty five thousand pounds and five caps for loyalty? Yeah right!

Saracens are a Champion Team and the only hardware they can win is the European Champions Cup. I disagree (with respect for our mutual passion for the game) with you about not rolling out the big guns. To win away in Munster they will have to put the big boys out there - that means the England Six Saracens that started and thrashed the AB's in RWC semi-final. Will think about rest for the following week return match at home Cheers 3P

threepeat wrote: Bradie you have been getting "Fake News"

The stories floating around about loyal Saracens are Fake News. England have an arrangement with Premiership Clubs whereby they have the right to chose whoever they want for Six Nations. On top of that England pays 25 thousand pounds per man test fee (do not know player / club split, if any). Going to give up one hundred and twenty five thousand pounds and five caps for loyalty? Yeah right!

3P guess you have not read my message properly - I said Saracens top players will be out playing the 6 Nations and therefore they will be heavily impacted during that period (3 to 6 games depending on training camp and players being released) so your prediction of Sarries being over Tigers by round 16 could potentially arrive later than expected.

Taken Sarries -8.5 Sunbet, think line moves within next few hours. Sarries team strong, i cannot trust Bath, no Watson.

Friday teams out and I'm expecting 3 minuses to kick things off:

Pro14
Uls 14.5 v Sca
S-line: 22
Bet minus (High confidence)

Mun v Edi -1.5
S-line: -7
Bet minus (High)

Premiership
Bat v Sar -11.5
S-line: -14
Bet minus (med)

Took a battering last weekend, going carefully this one.

Just an acca so far, placed yesterday @ 7.3
Edinburgh +6
Connacht -20
Benetton win
Cheetahs win

Waiting to see if line keeps moving in Ulster v Scarlets, as will get on the best plus.
Scarlets are flying under Brad Mooar and their pack is surprisingly (given the Welsh absentees) decent. Includes a debut for ex Hurricane and Tongan international 2nd row Sam Lousi.

Glasgow +1.5 @ 1.87
Leinster doing a turnover prior to the H-Cup while Glasgow brings a strong squad

Scarlets +16 @ 1.91

Ospreys have a few back and don't think the Gnoll will suit the Cheetahs, so despite the shambles they are in, I can't see them being beaten by much
Ospreys +8 @ 1.91

Small interest on Saracens over 3.5 tries @ 1.72 and over 26.5 @ 1.90
I am not sure if Saracens will target bonus point try at every single game, especially away but they might have to stay in the Premiership so giving it a try tonight

Premiership

Bat v Sar 11.5
S-line: -14
Bet minus (medium)

Exe 16.5 v Was
S-line: 11
Bet plus (high)

Nor 7.5 v Lec
S-line: 11
Bet minus (med)

Wor v Sal -2.5
S-line: -7
Bet minus (med)

Bri 14.5 v Lon
S-line: 16
Bet minus (low)

Har 1.5 v Glo
S-line: -3
Bet plus (high)

Pro 14

*Pro 14*

Uls 12.5 v Sca
S-line: 22
Bet minus (high)

Mun v Edi -1.5
S-line: -7
Bet minus (high)

Ben 10.5 v Car
S-line: 5
Ben plus (high)

Dra 3.5 v Zeb
S-line: 5
Bet minus (low)

Con 25.5 v Kin
S-line: 21
Bet plus (low)

Osp v Che -6.5
S-line: -12
Bet minus (high)

Gla 4.5 v Lei
S-line: 0
Bet plus (med)

Friday done and as always here are my algorithms results:

Edi s-line -7 result -2 minus won
Uls s-line 22 result 24 minus won
Sar s-line -14 result -13 minus won

Top 14

Rac 6.5 v Bor
S-line: 8
Bet minus (low)

LaR 9.5 v Cas
S-line: 6
Bet plus (med)

Cle 22.5 v Age
S-line: 26
Bet minus (med)

Pau 5.5 v Tln
S-line: 0
Bet plus (high)

Mon 5.5 v Lyo
S-line: -3
Bet plus (high)

Brv 4.5 v Std
S-line: 6
Bet minus (low)

Tls 21.5 v Bay
S-line: 18
Bet plus (Med)

Give that Stig a Bells! Nice one

Sarries are going to be golden on the caps this season, just so much pressure to keep winning. Good betting result last night, and as for Bath - can see some coaching changes coming there very soon, look like a club going backwards.

Honda lads ,

Focused mainly on the horses today but my fancies.

Leicester on the best plus , last chance for these clowns , Murphy is a lousy coach but going for them today.

Best plus Worcester my best bet of the day, think they';ll win on the board.

Also on the Baa Baas best plus , think it's a blinder

Wales vs Barbarians over 69.5 @1.90

Barbarians over 22.5 points, fire.

Wish I hadn’t got involved in this, should have left afternoon interest in football and horses. Need a open game 2nd half.

I take it all back. Lovey open 2nd half!!

What a difference a day makes. Aaargh..

Woke up yesterday morning that Sarries and Ulster had delivered me big on Friday night - champion me

Wake this morning to see that everything I had lost last night - everything. Wiped out yesterday's profits and then some.

So first I'm gonna wipe this blood up and then I'm gonna cry a bit.

Tempted just a little bit to empty my accounts onto Bristol and Gloucester and suck-it-up however the chips fall.

Premiership
2/4 = 50%

Pro 14
5/7 = 71%

Top 14
2/5 = 40%

4 games to go today

Sorry deleted the post.