Giro 2020 + all other cycling
- Brent Graham
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The Giro starts this weekend and that means 3 weeks of cycling betting and there are also plenty of excellent 1 day races on the card as cycling look to fit an entire season into 3 months (good on them)
Today though is Fleche Wallonne a race that finishes on the beastly Mur de Huy - just 1.3km but at an average of 9.6% and some very steep parts.
The course looks like one for attackers to get into breaks but so few rides are capable of finishing a spring up the Mur that the favourites teams normally ensure everyone is together at the bottom of the climb - so this is actually quite a predictable race (cue the breakaway to stick today)
Alaphilippe is taking a well deserved rest after winning the Worlds and there is also no Valverde this year
Hirschi 15/4 tops the boards with Kwia, Pogacar and Woods all at 6/1
Bets to follow
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- Brent Graham
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0.5u Pogacar win 7/1 WSB - he will surely fade at some point but still looked fresh at the worlds and I expect him to go early on the Mur
0.25u e/w Porte 40/1,10/1 Sunbet - came out of the tour strong and can capitalise on that form
1u Double Pogacar/Woods x Porte/Landa at 4/1
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- The Vann
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Think Chris may have a winner there
Win
Woods @ 6/1
Kamna @ 33/1
Win and Podium 1-3
Madouas @ 80/1 and 20/1
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- Brent Graham
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At his peak which given his age has likely past this route looks perfect for Nibali and I am going to have a nibble on him winning
1u Nibali win 10/1 WSB
as for stage 1 it is a short ITT and mainly downhill so we should see crazy speeds - the fav looks hard to beat but I can't resist a nibble on TDG
0.25u TDG podium 40/1 Sunbet
May look for an in running interest
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- Brent Graham
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Course looks dangerous and banking on Thomas not risking all into the corners
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- Brent Graham
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- kcmarinopirlo
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Average speed Over 58kph
Kangert > McNulty
And Geraint Thomas top 3 finish
Are my stage 1 bets; looking forward to the Giro... Ganna will be frightening wind or no wind
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- Brent Graham
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Long Term Invested 1 unit
Stage Balance -2,25 units
Going for a cycle tomorrow morning so better get my L-B-L bets down
This is always an exciting race and we could get a reduced sprint, a medium range attack or a late attack
Roglic looked tired last week but still came 6th at the Worlds - he didn't race midweek and while there is a chance his form is in decline if he has recovered he has a big chance
1u Roglic win at 16/1
Will also look for in-running options and will post Giro stage 3 bets tomorrow
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- Brent Graham
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- Brent Graham
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5u Matthews/Sagan 5/10 - i think final climb too tough for Sagan in current form
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- Brent Graham
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- Brent Graham
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An 18 unit profit in LBL with my in play double arriving thanks to ALA relegation but Giro not look so good and I am off to my typical slow GT start
Summary after Stage 2
Long Term Invested: 1 unit
Stage: -8.25u
Stage 3 could be a great classification battle but I think it is more likely a breakaway that wins
0.25u on
Pedrero 200/1 WSB,
Bouchard 66/1 Sunbet
Guerreiro 40/1 Sunbet
Valter 40/1 Sunbet
and if it is GC 0.5u Fugslang win at 7/1 Sunbet
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- Brent Graham
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- kcmarinopirlo
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Small ew plays on Brandon McNulty @100
+ Fausto Masnada @200 in the GC
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- Brent Graham
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A rider I think was a big winner yesterday was Kruijswijk - lost a bit of time but 1st big test after injury and will only get stronger
Summary after Stage 3
Long Term Invested: 1 unit
Stage: -9.75u
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- Brent Graham
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I am thinking there must be some value in the team classification. DQS lead and are 2/1 favs (I was eyeing them out when they were around 6/1 but now want to beat them) - they have the pink jersey who is also the firm fav for White and I think defending those will be priority.
I am looking for a team with decent climbers who will be hunting stages and have settled on Mitchelton Scott at 9/1 - they are 07:43 back after dropping back for Yates yesterday but on paper have a strong team (relatively) who assuming Yates challenge falls away completely will be able to focus on stages and that could bring them into contention by default. Once there they will probably defend/go for it
Of course plenty can go wrong (perhaps Yates abandons) but I am having a go at the 9/1
1u MS team comp at 9/1 at WSB
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- Brent Graham
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If the sprinters are dropped but not by more than a couple of minutes we could have a thrilling pursuit over the last 40km
I am going with Matthews today
0.5u win at 11/2 Sunbet
1u Top 3 at 14/10 Sunbet
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- The Vann
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GC seems wide open and I like the looks of Kelderman. Best time trialist of the contenders and there are still two to go and able to stay on steep climbs ( 4th at 2017 Vuelta ). Agree with Brent's logic on the team comp. Can't see Thomas starting today so Ineos will be looking elsewhere and the odds are certainly longer then expected for a team only 5min behind.
Giro Outrights
Win
Kelderman @ 9/2
Team
Ineos @ 20/1
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- The Vann
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Giro 4
Win
de Gendt @ 22/1
Battaglin @ 66/1
e/w
Swift @ 22/1
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Giro Stage 5
Looking for the break today so three initial darts on
de Gendt @ 14/1
Bouchard @ 40/1
O'Connor @ 80/1
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- The Vann
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De Brabantse Pijl
e/w
Mezgec @ 33/1
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- Brent Graham
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Long Term Invested: 2 unit
Stage: -11.25u
Break surely today - here are my darts
0.25u Villella 66/1 Sunbet
0.5u Ullisi 18/1 Sunbet
0.5u De Gendt 14/1 WSB
0.25u Howson 150/1 WSB
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- The Vann
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Puccio @ 25/1 - A few beers
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Giro Stage 6
1-3
Malecki @ 54/1
Campenaerts @ 72/1
Hodeg @ 72/1
Rubio @ 108/1
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Have taken a bit of Sagan and might actually go all in (ito my cycling budget) in-running if the break looks doomed. I really feel Pete is getting his top legs back and he will want to pay back the team for all their efforts on his behalf of late.
Come on Sagan son!!
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- Brent Graham
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Long Term Invested: 2.5 unit
Stage: -12.75u
Lay: +2.5
Dry Giro run continues and really annoyed that De Gendt didn't get it - that bloody Movistar rider annoyed him so much he decided to make a point of not letting him win the stage
I did lay Conci at 2/1 through my good mate Coil and really wish I was a bookie in this TDF
Today I am with you Couch - won't be easy to control but Sagan all the way - I fear a late attack more than the break which I think will be reeled in
Waiting for in running prices so no on yet
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- The Vann
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In-play 120km left
Bais @ 20/1
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Giro Stage 7
No luck on out rights so a match bet double
Vendrame/Matthews into
Hodeg/Barbier
@ 42/10
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- The Vann
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Taking two guys up front and taking the Majka match bet - padded out - as I expect him to assist with chasing the break before Sagan embarrasses himself once again.
Giro Stage 8
Win
Ganna @ 33/1
1-3
Rubio @ 80/1
Match Bet Treble
Kruijswijk/Majka
Ulissi/Clarke
Battaglin/Fiorelli
@ 38/10
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- The Vann
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Win
Rosskopf @ 10/1
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- Brent Graham
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- The Vann
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Gent-Wevelgem
Ewan @ 40/1
Giro Stage 9
Win
Ganna @ 28/1
O Connor @ 100/1
1-3
Whelan @ 125/1
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- Brent Graham
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1/4 u on
Swift 100/1
Villella 100/1
Double MVDP in GV into Ullisis at 40/1 - half a unit
0.5u Haig KOM at 33/1 WSB
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- The Vann
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Brent Graham wrote: Poor Giro so far and -13.25u
1/4 u on
Swift 100/1
Villella 100/1
Double MVDP in GV into Ullisis at 40/1 - half a unit
0.5u Haig KOM at 33/1 WSB
Likewise Brent. Not sure how much your 1/4 unit is but Haig's odds plummeted to 9/1 so I skipped it. Joined you on the double and threw in the WvA/ Ulissi double at the same price.
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- Brent Graham
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Long Term Invested: 3u
Stage: -14.25u
Lay: +2.5
I have not been getting too involved but small losses are starting to add up. Not the most inspiring Giro so far and as exciting as not having a controlling team may turn out to be it has meant that the break have not really been chased hard in most stages.
Tomorrows stage could be far better than it looks at first glance - plenty of short steep ramps and I have found these to be better for exciting racing than a summit finish - if one of the key GC men shows signs of weakness this race should explode.
It should be too late to catch the break though and here are my darts for tomorrow
0.5u Ullissi 10/1 - short price but can win from break or reduced sprint
0.5u Narvaez 18/1 - should be well suited and I think Ineos pick for the stage (also like Swift but 20/1 a bit short)
0.5u - Vendrame at 33/1 - stage should suit if he can find top form
0.25u Tangert at 661
0.25u Pardun at 80./1
edit: 0.25u Bouchaard at150/1
I am determined to have at least 1 rider in the break
1 match bet
2u Keldermann/Almeida at 7/10 - I think Sunweb may put the pink jersey in difficulty tomorrow
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- kcmarinopirlo
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- Brent Graham
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Giro Stage 10
Win
Villella @ 40/1
Edet @ 125/1
1-3
Puccio @ 24/1
Bais @ 64/1
Whelan @ 64/1
Frapprti @ 80/1
Never know what can happen after a rest day but I think Sagan 15/10 against Matthews is too long so taking the double as my main bet
Sagan/Matthews into
Swift/Narvaez
@ 33/10
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- Brent Graham
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Summary after Stage 10
Long Term Invested: 3u (2.5u of which were on MS and Haig)
Stage: -20u
Lay: -2.5
After a great end to the TDF and the Roglic win I don't want to give it all back so am going to scale back a bit and perhaps take a couple of days off
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- The Vann
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Today is a flat sprint stage but run-in looks tricky. May be difficult for sprinters to stay with lead-outs so I am banking on a lead out rider looking for his sprinter and getting pipped by a small team sprinter. Can't see a break staying today so just one dart at huge odds
Giro Stage 11
e/w
Pellaud @ 600/1
Match bet
Fiorelli/Ballerini @ 16/10
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- Brent Graham
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Addng
0.25u Vendrame at 40/1 WSB - got in an unsuccessful break on Tuesday and hoping he makes the right one this time
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Giro Stage 12
Win
Swift @ 10/1 (Certainly carrying a lot of money today is our Ben - best odds I could find)
e/w
Pellaud @ 125/1
Rubio @ 150/1
Malecki @ 300/1
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