Giro 2020 + all other cycling

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3 years 6 months ago - 3 years 5 months ago #1 by Brent Graham
Giro 2020 + all other cycling was created by Brent Graham
A serious load of cycling coming our way although due to Corona Virus the Amstel Gold next week looks in doubt

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The Giro starts this weekend and that means 3 weeks of cycling betting and there are also plenty of excellent 1 day races on the card as cycling look to fit an entire season into 3 months (good on them)

Today though is Fleche Wallonne a race that finishes on the beastly Mur de Huy - just 1.3km but at an average of 9.6% and some very steep parts.

The course looks like one for attackers to get into breaks but so few rides are capable of finishing a spring up the Mur that the favourites teams normally ensure everyone is together at the bottom of the climb - so this is actually quite a predictable race (cue the breakaway to stick today)

Alaphilippe is taking a well deserved rest after winning the Worlds and there is also no Valverde this year

Hirschi 15/4 tops the boards with Kwia, Pogacar and Woods all at 6/1

Bets to follow

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Last edit: 3 years 5 months ago by Brent Graham.

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3 years 6 months ago #2 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Fleche Wallonne Bets

0.5u Pogacar win 7/1 WSB - he will surely fade at some point but still looked fresh at the worlds and I expect him to go early on the Mur

0.25u e/w Porte 40/1,10/1 Sunbet - came out of the tour strong and can capitalise on that form

1u Double Pogacar/Woods x Porte/Landa at 4/1

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3 years 6 months ago #3 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Fleche Wallonne I'll go with Woods at 11/2 for the win

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3 years 6 months ago #4 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Fleche Wallone
Think Chris may have a winner there

Win
Woods @ 6/1
Kamna @ 33/1
Win and Podium 1-3
Madouas @ 80/1 and 20/1

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3 years 6 months ago #5 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Not getting too involved early and while I am keen to take Thomas on there are question marks over everyone and I am taking a watching brief on the long terms for the most part

At his peak which given his age has likely past this route looks perfect for Nibali and I am going to have a nibble on him winning

1u Nibali win 10/1 WSB

as for stage 1 it is a short ITT and mainly downhill so we should see crazy speeds - the fav looks hard to beat but I can't resist a nibble on TDG

0.25u TDG podium 40/1 Sunbet

May look for an in running interest

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3 years 6 months ago #6 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
1u Matthews/Thomas at 14/10

Course looks dangerous and banking on Thomas not risking all into the corners

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3 years 6 months ago #7 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
1u Ganna win NO 11/5 Sunbet = just think this wind is so hectic and anything ca happen

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3 years 6 months ago #8 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Winning margin over 10seconds

Average speed Over 58kph

Kangert > McNulty

And Geraint Thomas top 3 finish


Are my stage 1 bets; looking forward to the Giro... Ganna will be frightening wind or no wind

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3 years 6 months ago #9 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Summary after Stage 1:
Long Term Invested 1 unit
Stage Balance -2,25 units

Going for a cycle tomorrow morning so better get my L-B-L bets down

This is always an exciting race and we could get a reduced sprint, a medium range attack or a late attack

Roglic looked tired last week but still came 6th at the Worlds - he didn't race midweek and while there is a chance his form is in decline if he has recovered he has a big chance

1u Roglic win at 16/1

Will also look for in-running options and will post Giro stage 3 bets tomorrow

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3 years 6 months ago #10 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
1u Matthews win at 22/10 WSB

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3 years 6 months ago #11 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Feel like some Sunday evening tension

5u Matthews/Sagan 5/10 - i think final climb too tough for Sagan in current form

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3 years 6 months ago #12 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
1u Hirshi/ALA x Roglic/Pogacar at 39/20

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3 years 6 months ago #13 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
A strange day for me yesterday with Matthews costing big in the Giro but then Roglic ensuring a great day in the most dramatic way in LBL

An 18 unit profit in LBL with my in play double arriving thanks to ALA relegation but Giro not look so good and I am off to my typical slow GT start

Summary after Stage 2
Long Term Invested: 1 unit
Stage: -8.25u

Stage 3 could be a great classification battle but I think it is more likely a breakaway that wins

0.25u on
Pedrero 200/1 WSB,
Bouchard 66/1 Sunbet
Guerreiro 40/1 Sunbet
Valter 40/1 Sunbet

and if it is GC 0.5u Fugslang win at 7/1 Sunbet

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3 years 6 months ago #14 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
I've no television coverage so could be wide of the mark here but I believe Thomas de Gendt was in the break yesterday and it was caught early enough and he came in 7 mins down, perhaps he will have another go on Stage 3? 22/1 or so, he carry's my hopes. Will follow Brent with Fuglsang in case it comes down to GC.

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3 years 6 months ago #15 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
1u Fugs/Almeida x Zakarin/Pozzavivo at 5/2 Sunbet

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3 years 6 months ago #16 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Giro looks wide open now...

Small ew plays on Brandon McNulty @100
+ Fausto Masnada @200 in the GC

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3 years 6 months ago #17 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
I agree this is seriously wide open and with no team seemingly strong enough to control a massive upset won the likes of Oscar Pereiro in the TDF 2006 is possible

A rider I think was a big winner yesterday was Kruijswijk - lost a bit of time but 1st big test after injury and will only get stronger


Summary after Stage 3
Long Term Invested: 1 unit
Stage: -9.75u

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3 years 6 months ago #18 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Ok so we know this is going to be a very different GT with little control. I suspect that we are going to see many a break stick especially on the hilly stages. The teams of the leaders will control early to make sure no one dangerous goes in the break and then will lack the firepower to bring it back.

I am thinking there must be some value in the team classification. DQS lead and are 2/1 favs (I was eyeing them out when they were around 6/1 but now want to beat them) - they have the pink jersey who is also the firm fav for White and I think defending those will be priority.

I am looking for a team with decent climbers who will be hunting stages and have settled on Mitchelton Scott at 9/1 - they are 07:43 back after dropping back for Yates yesterday but on paper have a strong team (relatively) who assuming Yates challenge falls away completely will be able to focus on stages and that could bring them into contention by default. Once there they will probably defend/go for it

Of course plenty can go wrong (perhaps Yates abandons) but I am having a go at the 9/1

1u MS team comp at 9/1 at WSB

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3 years 6 months ago #19 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Todays stage looks really tricky - the break should be kept in check but will Bora and Sunweb push the climb to get rid for the pure sprinters? They both have men perhaps in better GC position than they expected but at the same time they are largely here for Sagan and Matthews

If the sprinters are dropped but not by more than a couple of minutes we could have a thrilling pursuit over the last 40km

I am going with Matthews today

0.5u win at 11/2 Sunbet
1u Top 3 at 14/10 Sunbet

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3 years 6 months ago #20 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
I'm thinking Demare can stay in touch over the Stage 4 climb and I'll go with him to take the sprint at17/4

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3 years 6 months ago #21 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
October has way too many family commitments which means I have not seen enough Giro to realistically splash the money but what the heck.
GC seems wide open and I like the looks of Kelderman. Best time trialist of the contenders and there are still two to go and able to stay on steep climbs ( 4th at 2017 Vuelta ). Agree with Brent's logic on the team comp. Can't see Thomas starting today so Ineos will be looking elsewhere and the odds are certainly longer then expected for a team only 5min behind.
Giro Outrights
Win
Kelderman @ 9/2
Team
Ineos @ 20/1

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3 years 6 months ago #22 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Taking a few in case of a break today but will keep a third of the stage allocation in hand should sprinters still be in touch at top of climb.
Giro 4
Win
de Gendt @ 22/1
Battaglin @ 66/1
e/w
Swift @ 22/1

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3 years 6 months ago #23 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Stage 5, Jack Haig from a breakaway. Hoping MTS give him the nod to go for it after Yates dropped down the GC

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3 years 6 months ago #24 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Nice one on Demare yesterday Chris. I tried him in play around 3km before the top of the climb but he had shortened to 5/4 so gave it a miss.
Giro Stage 5
Looking for the break today so three initial darts on
de Gendt @ 14/1
Bouchard @ 40/1
O'Connor @ 80/1

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3 years 6 months ago #25 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
We have the DBP one day race in Belgium today. Really difficult to see any rider other than van der Poel or Alaphilippe win. The course is not that different to Le Tour stage 19 where this chap came second so he is carrying some form and can't really get hurt at these odds
De Brabantse Pijl
e/w
Mezgec @ 33/1

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3 years 6 months ago #26 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Summary after Stage 4
Long Term Invested: 2 unit
Stage: -11.25u

Break surely today - here are my darts

0.25u Villella 66/1 Sunbet
0.5u Ullisi 18/1 Sunbet
0.5u De Gendt 14/1 WSB
0.25u Howson 150/1 WSB

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3 years 6 months ago #27 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
98 km left
Puccio @ 25/1 - A few beers

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3 years 6 months ago #28 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Marginally miffed about yesterday's in-play punt. Felt it had to be one of the Ineos riders and lost the 50/50 punt. Not sure Bora will hammer today so break may stay. My dart odds are so long that I am taking them all for place only.
Giro Stage 6
1-3
Malecki @ 54/1
Campenaerts @ 72/1
Hodeg @ 72/1
Rubio @ 108/1

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3 years 6 months ago #29 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Took Rubio 33/1 & TdG 20/1 in running just as they launched and was pretty much counting my money when they caught and initially dropped the rest. With Nibali cruising for the last 20meters I also lost a big matchplay bet and am now rock bottom.

Have taken a bit of Sagan and might actually go all in (ito my cycling budget) in-running if the break looks doomed. I really feel Pete is getting his top legs back and he will want to pay back the team for all their efforts on his behalf of late.

Come on Sagan son!!

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3 years 6 months ago #30 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Summary after Stage 5
Long Term Invested: 2.5 unit
Stage: -12.75u
Lay: +2.5

Dry Giro run continues and really annoyed that De Gendt didn't get it - that bloody Movistar rider annoyed him so much he decided to make a point of not letting him win the stage

I did lay Conci at 2/1 through my good mate Coil and really wish I was a bookie in this TDF

Today I am with you Couch - won't be easy to control but Sagan all the way - I fear a late attack more than the break which I think will be reeled in

Waiting for in running prices so no on yet

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3 years 6 months ago #31 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Probably all come together when Bora test Demare on that last Cat 3 - but I need an interest for the next 90km
In-play 120km left
Bais @ 20/1

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3 years 6 months ago #32 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Third time in a Grand Tour this season that Bora cost me money with a dumb tactic and simultaneously stab themselves in the foot.
Giro Stage 7
No luck on out rights so a match bet double
Vendrame/Matthews into
Hodeg/Barbier
@ 42/10

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3 years 6 months ago #33 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Giro Stage 8, I think they can lose Demare today, Matthews at 6/1 for me. In the 1 day Gent - Wevelgem race nibbled at Stuyven at 20/1

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3 years 6 months ago #34 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
No pretty way to put it - Getting a good arse-whipping from the books on the Giro. Fate decided to select Vendrame from my match bet yesterday for a starring role in the crash at 40km to go so he staggered in around 70th.
Taking two guys up front and taking the Majka match bet - padded out - as I expect him to assist with chasing the break before Sagan embarrasses himself once again.
Giro Stage 8
Win
Ganna @ 33/1
1-3
Rubio @ 80/1
Match Bet Treble
Kruijswijk/Majka
Ulissi/Clarke
Battaglin/Fiorelli
@ 38/10

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3 years 6 months ago #35 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
In play 134km to go
Win
Rosskopf @ 10/1

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3 years 6 months ago #36 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
0.5u Sagan 12/1 100km to go

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3 years 6 months ago #37 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Current party @ Vanns looks like it is going to last which guarantees a hangover so a few quick picks
Gent-Wevelgem
Ewan @ 40/1
Giro Stage 9
Win
Ganna @ 28/1
O Connor @ 100/1
1-3
Whelan @ 125/1

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3 years 6 months ago #38 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Poor Giro so far and -13.25u

1/4 u on

Swift 100/1
Villella 100/1
Double MVDP in GV into Ullisis at 40/1 - half a unit

0.5u Haig KOM at 33/1 WSB

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3 years 6 months ago #39 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling

Brent Graham wrote: Poor Giro so far and -13.25u

1/4 u on

Swift 100/1
Villella 100/1
Double MVDP in GV into Ullisis at 40/1 - half a unit

0.5u Haig KOM at 33/1 WSB


Likewise Brent. Not sure how much your 1/4 unit is but Haig's odds plummeted to 9/1 so I skipped it. Joined you on the double and threw in the WvA/ Ulissi double at the same price.

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3 years 6 months ago - 3 years 6 months ago #40 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Summary after Stage 9
Long Term Invested: 3u
Stage: -14.25u
Lay: +2.5

I have not been getting too involved but small losses are starting to add up. Not the most inspiring Giro so far and as exciting as not having a controlling team may turn out to be it has meant that the break have not really been chased hard in most stages.

Tomorrows stage could be far better than it looks at first glance - plenty of short steep ramps and I have found these to be better for exciting racing than a summit finish - if one of the key GC men shows signs of weakness this race should explode.

It should be too late to catch the break though and here are my darts for tomorrow

0.5u Ullissi 10/1 - short price but can win from break or reduced sprint
0.5u Narvaez 18/1 - should be well suited and I think Ineos pick for the stage (also like Swift but 20/1 a bit short)
0.5u - Vendrame at 33/1 - stage should suit if he can find top form
0.25u Tangert at 661
0.25u Pardun at 80./1

edit: 0.25u Bouchaard at150/1

I am determined to have at least 1 rider in the break

1 match bet

2u Keldermann/Almeida at 7/10 - I think Sunweb may put the pink jersey in difficulty tomorrow

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Last edit: 3 years 6 months ago by Brent Graham.

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3 years 6 months ago #41 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Ive gone for Sagan at 22/1 just a touch too big imo; I see him and Matthews as the men to beat!

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3 years 6 months ago #42 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Will be interesting to see if he tries to make the break - his main challenge could be FDJ making it difficult for him - agree at 22/1 he starts getting tempting

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3 years 6 months ago #43 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
More than a little frustration in today's punts
Giro Stage 10
Win
Villella @ 40/1
Edet @ 125/1
1-3
Puccio @ 24/1
Bais @ 64/1
Whelan @ 64/1
Frapprti @ 80/1
Never know what can happen after a rest day but I think Sagan 15/10 against Matthews is too long so taking the double as my main bet
Sagan/Matthews into
Swift/Narvaez
@ 33/10

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3 years 6 months ago #44 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Well that punt did not last - Matthews being positive. Looks like several positives with MS pulling out of the Giro. Kruijswijk also positive and lots of back room staff. It's been a while since I made really nice out rights on a Grand Tour and I fancied my two tickets here - Kelderman @ 11/2 and Ineos @ 20/1 in the team. Looks like Covid is going to rob me - bastardio

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3 years 6 months ago #45 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
This stage is relentless!

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3 years 6 months ago #46 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Great call Sagan - that will go down as one of the greatest stage wins ever

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3 years 6 months ago #47 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Great stage yesterday but a bad punting day in a Giro that has been a disaster for me

Summary after Stage 10
Long Term Invested: 3u (2.5u of which were on MS and Haig)
Stage: -20u
Lay: -2.5

After a great end to the TDF and the Roglic win I don't want to give it all back so am going to scale back a bit and perhaps take a couple of days off

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3 years 6 months ago - 3 years 6 months ago #48 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
One of the best GT stages yesterday and nice pick there kc. Giro punting has been a disaster but hoping I may be turning the corner with Edet and Villella in the final break yesterday.
Today is a flat sprint stage but run-in looks tricky. May be difficult for sprinters to stay with lead-outs so I am banking on a lead out rider looking for his sprinter and getting pipped by a small team sprinter. Can't see a break staying today so just one dart at huge odds
Giro Stage 11
e/w
Pellaud @ 600/1
Match bet
Fiorelli/Ballerini @ 16/10
Last edit: 3 years 6 months ago by The Vann.
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3 years 6 months ago - 3 years 6 months ago #49 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
0.5u Swift 14/1 WSB - expect him to make the break and could well have a team mate to work for him - if Sagan is there at the end I would be in trouble though

Addng

0.25u Vendrame at 40/1 WSB - got in an unsuccessful break on Tuesday and hoping he makes the right one this time

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Last edit: 3 years 6 months ago by Brent Graham.

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3 years 6 months ago - 3 years 6 months ago #50 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Giro 2020 + all other cycling
Made the match bet yesterday. Does not plug much of the hole but one feels a little better. Hard to see past the break today so will join Brent and most of the cycling world on Swift and throw in a few each ways.
Giro Stage 12
Win
Swift @ 10/1 (Certainly carrying a lot of money today is our Ben - best odds I could find)
e/w
Pellaud @ 125/1
Rubio @ 150/1
Malecki @ 300/1
Last edit: 3 years 6 months ago by The Vann.

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