Super Rugby Unlocked, Mitre 10, Bledisloe, Euro Finals 12-19 Oct

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3 years 6 months ago - 3 years 6 months ago #1 by Brent Graham
A tough weekend for many punters and sadly our newsletter best bet run ended at 4

Personally the Cheetahs saved my weekend and I ended up braking about square

I will share my Super Rugby Unlocked handicap projections later tonight - let's hit those bookies hard

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Last edit: 3 years 6 months ago by Brent Graham.

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3 years 6 months ago #2 by Brent Graham
Here are my handicap projections for Super Rugby Unlocked week 2 and the Bledisloe Cup

Cheetahs -5.5 v Bulls
Griquas -13.5 v Pumas
Stormers -10.5 v Lions

New Zealand -14.5 v Australia

Other handicaps already priced up

Champions Cup: Exeter -5.5 v Racing

Challenge Cup: Bristol Bears -4.5 v Toulon

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3 years 6 months ago #3 by ballaholic
NZ TAB are out:

Hawkes Bay v Northland +11.5
Manawatu v BOP -11.5
Wellington v North Harbour +8.5
Auckland v Tasman -4.5
Southland v Taranaki -6.5
Canterbury v Waikato +7.5
Otago v Counties +8.5

Just the one early bet of Tasman -4.5 for me so far

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3 years 6 months ago - 3 years 6 months ago #4 by Kirky
Last edit: 3 years 6 months ago by Kirky. Reason: Delete

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3 years 6 months ago #5 by ThoughtsOnSports
Tasman -3.5 a standout.

If Foster opts for a similar AB outfit, will take the Aussie plus.

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3 years 6 months ago #6 by Brent Graham
I gather these are not quite opening lines but WSB lines in brackets to the right

Cheetahs -5.5 v Bulls (-2.5)
Griquas -13.5 v Pumas (-10.5)
Stormers -10.5 v Lions (-8.5)

New Zealand -14.5 v Australia (-15.5)

Based on my caps Cheetahs and Bulls would be the play but nothing worth jumping in on yet

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3 years 6 months ago #7 by Vrystaat
Bad weekend for me as the cheetahs stopped playing in the 2nd half. I’m strongly on the bulls for the weekend I think vermeulen will make a big difference.

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3 years 6 months ago #8 by southpaw
Another 2-3 weeks away, but Scotland on a +7 cap or bigger against Wales when 6N resumes looks interesting.

Wales with have no usual crowd factor as crowds still banned. Also being played at Scarlets home ground so unfamiliar for international game.

Think would have had this cap around same line for a normal home game, so probably some value in the Scots, crowd definitely worth a few points usually for Welsh.
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3 years 6 months ago #9 by CLrugby
Lack of inspiration on the MITRE lines which are almost aligned with my predictions so like last week I am starting with a HB x Wellington x Otago combo on Moneyline @2.25
Wait and see for the rest ...

@Chris_Lacharge

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3 years 6 months ago #10 by Laraxwell
I stayed up to follow home 9pt favourites Northland scrape past Southland early Sunday morning. Not enough credit been given to much improved Stags side. They owned Northland in that match but were scuppered by white line fever.
I like them at +6.5 home to Taranaki
Taranaki pushed Auckland close but harder to read formline against sides shorn of a high AB content

Otago - 8pts home to Counties Manukau looks decent too
I'll throw those in a treble with Hawkes Bay ( v Northland)

No Pro14 or Premiership rugby this weekend so just a solid double strike for me in the Euro Cups
Exeter ML X Bristol ML @ 1.3
Expecting a reaction from Bristol

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3 years 6 months ago #11 by bradie82
La Rochelle vs Castres : La Rochelle -11.5 @1.90

La Rochelle was quite impressive last Friday at Bayonne but its more the news on Castres that drives me to take that bet. Castres game was cancelled last week as they had 15 players and 1 staff member positive for Covid. Yesterday, only player was positive, but the 15 players positive last week and who are self-isolating and around 5 players injured means that not only those 20 players are not training today, but they might not be available for the game this week end.
I expect the cap to move very quickly to 15/16 at least so jumping on it.

All credits to the BreizhWinger on twitter for spotting the info
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3 years 6 months ago #12 by Laraxwell
La Rochelle already at -15 with Paddy Power

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3 years 6 months ago #13 by Laraxwell
A couple of longe range punts - both against my own country in upcoming Autumn Nations Cup

Italy +28
France -2

Furlong and Porter could be doubtful - that's our 2 frontline Tighthead props. These are being assessed along with likes of Sexton and Kelleher
Larmour is out for a while
28 points is a big head start with for Italy - particularly after disjointed season international sides have had. We struggled to a 26-16 win in Rome 2019

France -2 is a strong fancy

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3 years 6 months ago - 3 years 6 months ago #14 by Kirky
I don't care which team ABs put up, I just cannot resist the Ozzie +15.5 - taken some.
Working on finding the courage to take them on the board - but have a few days to go yet :)

I think I saw it was Hanrick who said Foster is an overrated coach and I agree fully with that statement. Rennie meanwhile..
Also, is it not Hooper's 100th match ? Think I read that somewhere ?

Time will reveal all :woohoo:
Last edit: 3 years 6 months ago by Kirky. Reason: more thought

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3 years 6 months ago - 3 years 6 months ago #15 by landrews77
Couple of things to think about :
2014 : NZ vs Aus - Drew in Australia
next game Aukland : AB won 51-20

2015: Austalia win in Australia -21-19
Next game in Eden Park : NZ 43-13

2019 : Perth -Australia won 47-26
Next game in Eden Park :NZ 36-0

This stats will tell a story.
Watch out , It does not matter who is selected in that team.
Last edit: 3 years 6 months ago by landrews77. Reason: Another stat : 22 Oct 2016 : NZ 37-10 October 2011 ; NZ 20-6
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3 years 6 months ago #16 by landrews77
Another October Month Stat that inspire me:
October 2011 : NZ won 20-6
October 2016 NZ won 37-10

If I take all this into account ,that direct me to an Aussie ugly defeat.
I feel last weekend handicap of -11,5 will be easily covered this weekend.
This wweekend on the AB train ,busses and Taxi.
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3 years 6 months ago #17 by CLrugby
Am I the only one to board the Cheetahs train @1.82 ? I don’t believe their pack will be hammered as bad as people think it will, they have actually a good front 8 imo. And that backline is just lethal. Hot and dry conditions + the context will make sure their motivation is high.

@Chris_Lacharge
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3 years 6 months ago #18 by TheBettingStig

CLrugby wrote: Am I the only one to board the Cheetahs train @1.82 ? I don’t believe their pack will be hammered as bad as people think it will, they have actually a good front 8 imo. And that backline is just lethal. Hot and dry conditions + the context will make sure their motivation is high.


You are not alone. Cheetahs by 7.

Check out the rest of my lines here:

#Stiglines bit.ly/3nK6fIi

Twitter @BettingStig
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3 years 6 months ago #19 by Dizzle
www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/54542965

"Four Wasps players and three staff members who work in the playing department of the Premiership finalists have tested positive for Covid-19.

Wasps are scheduled to face Exeter Chiefs at Twickenham on 24 October.


Those who returned positive results are self-isolating and the club said they are all "in good health overall".

"The club have taken the decision to cancel training for the remainder of this week as an added precautionary measure," added a statement.

Wasps finished second in the Premiership table and defeated Bristol Bears in their semi-final on Saturday.

They are not scheduled to play again until the final."

Betfair Sportsbook have pulled their prices down for this market in the UK. I managed to get on with World Sports betting. Exeter (-7.5) v Wasps

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3 years 6 months ago #20 by Dizzle
Exeter -7.5 @ 1.9 on World Sports Betting (WSB)

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3 years 6 months ago #21 by Brad Breath
I'm in the ABs camp this weekend.
"Bounceback" reasons outlined above.
Dry Eden Park track (though see there is chance of a shower) completely different to wet & windy caketin.
Josh Ioane was called up to the squad and now released, presuming Barrett & Mo'unga both fit.

The likely Aussie team has been leaked, 4 changes, 1 of which is Hanigan for Samu. Bit of a head scratcher - guessing its to give them another lineout option.

15. Tom Banks 14. Filipo Daugunu 13. Hunter Paisami 12. Matt To’omua 11. Marika Koroibete 10. James O’Connor 9. Nic White 8. Harry Wilson 7. Michael Hooper (captain) 6. Ned Hanigan 5. Matt Philip 4. Lukhan Salakaia-Loto 3. Taniela Tupou 2. Brandon Paenga-Amosa 1. James Slipper.

RESERVES: 16. Jordan Uelese 17. Scott Sio 18. Allan Alaalatoa 19. Rob Simmons 20. Liam Wright 21. Jake Gordon 22. Reece Hodge 23. Jordan Petaia.

Have taken some -14 @ 1.91 with Betfair


Ioane being released leads me on to a strong fancy in the Mitre 10, as he'll line up for Otago.
Bet is more about opposing Counties who've been poor, failing to cover in 10 of their last 11

Otago -7 @ 1.91

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3 years 6 months ago #22 by CLrugby
My second big bet of the week is Toulon H+4.5 in Challenge Cup final, Bears are missing Nathan Hughes and Charles Piutau, Vui is here but fresh back from injury. Toulon going with their muscles on that one, tons of experience on the pitch and their bench is stronger. For me they are favorite playing 50km from home even if only 1,000 fans allowed

@Chris_Lacharge
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3 years 6 months ago #23 by southpaw
Lions +12.5 @ 9/10 - all over this! (Hollywoodbets).

Benefit from a game last week vs Stormers week off. Did push Sharks hard, could/should have won it at end. Stormers bench bar hooker looks a bit suspect for me. 12.5 points cap is massive value.
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3 years 6 months ago #24 by ThoughtsOnSports
Aligned with South on this one. Taking a firm strike at Lions +12.5 at 9/10.

7pm kickoff on the coast. Lions lost 34-21 in Super Fan saturday but conceded a try in the 78 minute to lose the cap. Add the fact that Lions could have overturned the Sharks last weekend and now have minutes under the belt.

Previous results at Newlands:

Storm 19 - Lions 17
Storm 23 - Lions 26
Storm 16 - Lions 29
Storm 19 - Lions 19

twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports
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3 years 6 months ago #25 by Quill
Stormers vs Lions cancelled?

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3 years 6 months ago #26 by Laraxwell
My early confidence in Bristol is scuppered with injury news.
Think I'll stay away from that one
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3 years 6 months ago #27 by mackem
Couch's preview for Unlocked Round 2, some specials still to add on Friday

goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...und-2-best-bets.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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3 years 6 months ago #28 by Brent Graham
Join us live at 21h00 for THE HANDICAP

Click here to watch on You Tube


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3 years 6 months ago #29 by ballaholic
Sevu Reece and Tyrell Lomax released from ABs to play for Tasman v Auckland tomorrow.

Taking more Tasman -3.5 (1.93) at Bet365

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3 years 6 months ago #30 by Laraxwell
Enjoyed the show but expected more chat on the 2 European cup matches.
Yeah - the year has been disjointed, but this is the pinnacle of our NH club game

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3 years 6 months ago #31 by Brent Graham

Laraxwell wrote: Enjoyed the show but expected more chat on the 2 European cup matches.
Yeah - the year has been disjointed, but this is the pinnacle of our NH club game


Yeah good point and apologies, none of us had the opportunity to study up on it so decided to just touch on it

For those who prefer a Podcast show is available on most major platforms and here

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3 years 6 months ago #32 by Raider
Northland +13.5 shield challenge game. Northland only lost by more than 13 points only once to Tasman this season.

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3 years 6 months ago #33 by mackem

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3 years 6 months ago #34 by bradie82
2 bets for me today

Cheetahs on the board @ 1.90
Over 42.5 @ 1.83 on the Challenge Cup final (game is played in Aix en Provence, perfect forecast and synthetic pitch with those 2 teams - I was expecting 45.5 so no brainer for me)

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3 years 6 months ago #35 by CLrugby
Luatua the Bears captain has just been ruled out from today’s final, another massive blow for them after Hughes, Piutau and Urren. Joyce replacing him is not the same caliber of player and the Bears bench is really limited now. Toulon h+4.5 looks even stronger but will add on the win as well

@Chris_Lacharge
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3 years 6 months ago #36 by mackem
Bledisloe 2 and Mitre 10 from Couch Critic

goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...cup-2-best-bets.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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3 years 6 months ago #37 by kompos
bulls have gone +3.5 and 14/10, hollywood still has 11/10 and +2.5 cheetahs
LOL - I think the fix is in

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3 years 6 months ago #38 by ThoughtsOnSports
Firm strike on over 26.5 first half points at 9/10 in Cheetahs - Bulls

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3 years 6 months ago #39 by Northerner
Exeter vs Racing

Sam Simmonds anytime 7/4
First half anytime 10/3
First 8/1
Double 10/1
Hattrick 50/1
MOTM 12/1

Jonny Hill anytime 5/1
First half anytime 8/1
First 20/1
Double 50/1
Hattrick 200/1
MOTM 16/1

Mix of betvictor, bet365 and Boylesports.

Even though this is a final, there’s nothing to suggest Exeter won’t continue to play in the same fashion, by getting to the 5m line and battering the ball over the line with the forwards.

One of (often both) Simmonds and Hill have scored in all 8 of the last 8 games exeter have played when fielding their first team.

Let’s go!

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3 years 6 months ago #40 by landrews77
AB vs Wallabies

James O'Conner and Mat To'oma will be the target this weekend.They will get the same medicine of what they have done last week ,that's why Dan Coles is gonna start.Will Wallabies gonna play with 14 for a period? Yes
Bet 1: AB -13,5
Bet 2: First scoring play :penalty Aus.
Bet 3: AB -13,5 & Cheetahs win
Bet 4: AB -13,5 / Pumas +12,5/Cheetahs +2,5

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3 years 6 months ago #41 by Quill
Toulon over 20.5 points @1.81, sportsbet.com.au
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3 years 6 months ago #42 by hanrick
Strike on Lions under 20.5 points and also under 52.5 total points in Cape Town game.

Strong on the Stormers -9.5 aswell.

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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3 years 6 months ago #43 by southpaw
Exeter over 10.5 1st half points @ evens.

Racing will find the no crowd situation a bit unsettling tomorrow, France has been allowing supporters in, Exeter getting used to this. Expecting a solid start for them.
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3 years 6 months ago #44 by Laraxwell
Thought I dodged a bullet pulling out of punting on Bristol. Little did I realise how far Toulon has fallen.

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3 years 6 months ago #45 by Quill
Following Oracle's question on the Handicap, the Rugby Championship will be played in Sydney, Brisbane and Newcastle.

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3 years 6 months ago #46 by hanrick
Southland under 22.5 points at 8/10

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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3 years 6 months ago - 3 years 6 months ago #47 by Kirky
So my best bet of the weekend, my banker, breaks me again: Tasman -3.5 or, for purposes of my multis Tasman W.

I think Aukland must have imported players from America or Canada to beat Tasman so convincingly. Vommit.

:angry: :( :sick:
Last edit: 3 years 6 months ago by Kirky.

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3 years 6 months ago #48 by Laraxwell
Southland all huff and puff and no tries
Nice one on the unders Hanrick - sailed home

Yeah, hard lines Kirky. Mitre Cup multi bets are a punting graveyard for sure.
Better things had been expected of Auckland but they have stuttered along.
Big performance today
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3 years 6 months ago #49 by Zambusta
And the neither team to reach 20 lands again in a Southland game....6 in a row.

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3 years 6 months ago #50 by Joeywallace
Yes Bradie on fire, anything else for the weekend, I like stormers htft and Griquas htft double at 1.41/1

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