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TOPIC: Tour de France 2017

Tour de France 2017 4 months 1 week ago #72470

Cycling is a cruel sport - at one point Landa was a massive fav when it was just him and AC but somehow Quintana clawed them back and brought Barguil with him
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 1 week ago #72477

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Stiff Brent, I know you were very sweet on Landa. Guys Ive been laid low by some virus and resting up for a couple of days, will resume TdF previews next week.. Enjoy this weekends stages
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 1 week ago #72482

GVA or Matthews but my bet - Betancur at 100/1
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 1 week ago #72483

Jeez Astana are completely depleted and the yellow jersey was just a passenger yesterday. Sky are so strong that they decided to get a second runner in the contest just to give them another card to play. Landa really looking supreme on the climbs at the moment.

A few humps today and then a nice little finishing kick. Should suit the puncheur riders. But after a tough few days we could see a decent sized break get away.

I've been throwing money into a pit thus far and am in serious need of a winner SOON! Also upping my stakes at this point.

Bets:
Albasini @ 33/1
Gallopin @ 50/1
Vuilermoz @ 80/1
Brambilla @ 80/1
Twitter: @HDCouchCritic
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 1 week ago #72486

Must say I thought Aru was brilliant yesterday and he is going to have to be for the rest of the Tour if he is to stand a chance - Sky can use Landa but the problem is I don't believe they want to win with Landa and hopefully Aru can win this.

The biggest message yesterday for me was from Bardet - he had teammates and could have put them on the front to protect his podium from Landa - he didn't and that tells me this guy is thinking of nothing but victory in Paris
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 1 week ago #72490

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Stiffs yesterday Brent - Looked like a winner all the way. Not having much joy on the tour coupled with a nice 86 from Lingmerth in Scotland/turned down a 30 unit spread profit on Proteas when they were 220 odd for 6 :angry: /and the Kings?.
I think the break stays today so no match bets - just the local lad and Colbrelli

Colbrelli @ 22/1
Calmejane @ 80/1
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 1 week ago #72517

Fantasy Update
Couch made a big move today and edged ahead of Mackem but only a minor adjustment to the betting with Mackem still favourite. Vann is now with 100 points but bookies reporting trickles of money onto BG in from 33/1 to 25/1 despite trailing by 137 points. PW appears to have found the going too tough in week 2 and Gooi continues his domestique duties.

Couch 2752 - 12/10
Mackem +14 - 9/10
Vann +96 -25/1
BG +137 - 25/1
PW +193 - 1500/1
Gooi +206 - 1500/1
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 1 week ago #72518

My team was pretty much taylor-made for this stage so I badly needed that result. Chris (and the others) should go well clear tomorrow.

Once again I am in need of a big break getting away.
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 6 days ago #72520

I think you have a good chance of getting that break Couch.

With Froome back in Yellow Sky will assume control and should ensure that no one in contention gets clear on that 1st climb. It would have been very different if Aru was in Yellow (and as far as entertainment goes it is a pity he is not) and I think he was glad in a way to lose it (perhaps but glad but it is actually better for his chances) although given he finished 25 seconds back I am not sure it is all down to positioning - we should see today though.

Likely scenaio today is a strong break goes clear, Sky control the gap letting it get a decent lead and the strong members of the break fight it out.

Another scenario is that someone not totally out of contention for say the top 10 or White Jersey get in the break. Sky will ride tempo and then the threatened teams will come to the front and ride and this could spell doom for the break.

I expect AG2R to put riders into the break and I would be surprised if Bardet does not try something on the final climb. This may come too late to catch the break but should ensure GC action.

If Sky were genuinely willing to let Landa or Froome win they would let Landa in the break but there is too strong a chance this would damage Froome as he would be forced to follow wheels and Landa could suddenly find himself as team leader. Highly unlikely although Sky may get some riders into the break to try a similar tactic to the one I expect from Bardet. If Aru is weak as I suspect he might be the likes of AG2R and Sky will be looking to ride him out of this race today.

Another scenario is that a GC man shows weakness on the 1st climb - unlikely but if so this stage will be raced at pace and will likely be won by a GC man.

The betting is wide open and suggests a breakaway win with Cummins the only rider in single figures. Bets to follow
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 6 days ago #72521

A small interest in GVA and Benoot from the break at 25/1 Betx but my bet for the day 7/10 Bardet/Aru at Betx

And a nibble on Bardet at 66/1 WSB
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 6 days ago #72524

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One would have to say you do not get a better stage for a break then today. A nice cat 1 out of the blocks followed by a rest day tomorrow - you can go full gas. My only hope on the fantasy side is that Caruso makes the break because there is no other rider outside the top 10 that is within a few minutes and would be a threat ( the others are mostly domestiques or too far behind ).

Match bet double for the day
Bakelants over Chavanel into
Ulissi over van Avermaet @ 22/10

And the days nibble Rolland @ 125/1
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 6 days ago #72526

Hope you are right with regard to the break BG and specifically Benoot! :cheer:

I have a bad feeling that Alberto goes loco again today and blows the stage wide open. Hoping he feels today isnt quite tough enough for thst but I have my doubts - he is in full all out asault mode at present.

I agree that Ag2R could also be the ones pushing but they should wait for the final Cat1 so in that case we could still see the break survive. I would love Sky to keep things calm at the front today but time is runnning out for Bardet, Martin and Aru. And of course AC and Nairo.

While my Fantasy is still just about in the mix my punting has been poor but I will continue to have a go:
D Martin @ 33/1 - GC option
Ulissi @ 20/1
Betancur @ 40/1
Bettiol @ 66/1
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 6 days ago #72529

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Clutching at straws on the fantasy here but maybe Sunweb may ride the first climb as hard as Matthews can handle in the hope of putting Kittel into some difficulty. He did struggle yesterday. Would also give Matthews a dig at the interim sprint and keep Barguil's KOM lead intact. All depends on how much they have left in the tank after yesterday's efforts. Go Sunweb The Vann needs you :lol:
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 6 days ago #72532

For goodness sake Ulissi within sight but everyone especially Barguil riding like absolute idiots and costing me the chance of a win here!! :angry:
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 6 days ago #72533

Exciting stage although was really wishing Froome would be behind at the top of the climb and the others would work together to distance him - not to be

I ended up having a big bet to try and rescue my tour on Bardet over Aru - in fairness Aru never looked in trouble but when I saw an AG2R cross ahead of him I thought the bet had won - I looked closer and it was Vuilermoz with Bardet tucked in a rider behind Aru - I cannot get a break at the moment and am drawing funds from my fixed odds account as the way I am going I will have nothing left soon.

As for the Fantasy - I don't even want to look
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 6 days ago #72537

Unlucky Brent. I ended up adding a little double of Gallopin for the win onto Hamilton in the F1.

In typical fashion my riders come in 2nd and 3rd!!! :sick: FFS... leaking funds badly in TdF2017
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 6 days ago #72538

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Sadly I made my double today - sorry chaps. One thing I loved about today's stage was AG2R never waited for the Froome fake mechanical. There has still been no explanation of what exactly was wrong when Aru jumped him a few stages ago and today I could not spot anything wrong with his machine - the explanation - my back wheel felt damaged??? It looks like a Sky tactic to me and it was just put to rest by AG2R.
Interesting stage and definitely looking forward to the rest of the tour now that the idiots at UCI have stopped coming up with crazy penalties.
Only downside - fantasy probably went down the tubes with such a large break :sick:
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 5 days ago #72550

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Dan Martin injured his back when Porte brought him down and has been unable to get power out of the saddle. He says it is starting to get better. He lost 1m 15s on that stage and currently lies 1m 12s behind on GC. He is not a great time trialist but then neither are two of his podium opposition Bardet and Aru. I am spending a few pennies with WSB this morning

Dan Martin Top 3 @ 4/1
Last Edit: 4 months 5 days ago by The Vann.
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 5 days ago #72551

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I'm a bit rusty as to all the events of the last 3 stages among the GC but I don't think that should alter anything in terms of Stage 16 on Tuesday, I really like EBH at 10/1 with Kung the back up at 40/1
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 5 days ago #72561

Fantasy Update
Couch came through a tricky round best and he currently leads Mackem by 32 points with just 6 stages left. He has now moved to outright fav for the 1st time in what bookies are pricing as a 2 horse race although Vann is still given an outside chance.

Couch 2815 - 6/10
Mackem +32 - 13/10
Vann +82 -20/1
BG +153 - 200/1/1
PW +185 - 1500/1
Gooi +207 - 1500/1
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 4 days ago #72565

No bets for me today but have taken a few Fantasy League chances and will hope for a freak result to get me back into the mix.

Really hoping for cross winds
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 4 days ago #72567

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I don't think the wind has been invented which could propel my fantasy team up the leader board :lol:

Not a great stage for betting so a reduced stake on a treble

Bouhanni over McLay into
Cimolai over Selig into
Boss over Degenkolb @ 25/10
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 4 days ago #72569

Its a pretty tough stage for Fantasy picks in my view. Break doing it on two out of the three stages will really cause some big shuffling in the ranks. I feel quite lost in terms of which way to go as we enter the last few battles for glory.

I reckon being a bit further down the order allows one to have a few "alternative" picks in your Fantasy team. Should one of them come off you could be right back in the mix. I was toying with going for one or two left field selections and really putting it all on the line AC style with a daring long range attack... Of course I also have to consider whether winning this smaller punting group is good enough even though I come up short in the bigger pool ;) :P
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 4 days ago #72570

One punt for me today:

Degenkolb to win @ 18/1
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 4 days ago #72571

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Fantasy Alert

Gilbert out with tummy bug.
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 4 days ago #72574

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The Vann wrote:
Dan Martin injured his back when Porte brought him down and has been unable to get power out of the saddle. He says it is starting to get better. He lost 1m 15s on that stage and currently lies 1m 12s behind on GC. He is not a great time trialist but then neither are two of his podium opposition Bardet and Aru. I am spending a few pennies with WSB this morning

Dan Martin Top 3 @ 4/1

Well that's another bet taken out by the cycling gods. Dan Martin says the tummy bug is running through the team. Same team as Kittel by the way. Any books still offering anything decent on Matthews for green?
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 4 days ago #72575

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Frustrated with EBH 2nd on Tuesday, think he was the strongest but he didn't have the nouse of Matthews on the day.


Wednesday Stage 17 preview

Roglic at 33/1 and Bardet at 8/1
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 4 days ago #72577

Seriously impressed with how Sunweb rode today, the green jersey is going to be so close now!
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 3 days ago #72578

I recorded the stage and my plan was to skim through until the last 20km - I could not stop watching that 1st 90 minutes - agree that was brilliant by Sunweb and made the race (had to love the Quick Step tactics as well - they kept sticking Dan Martin in the break with Matthews knowing Sky would shut it down but when Sunweb changed plan it was race over for Kittel)

I am looking for a big ride from Thibaut Pinot today - if he is going to do something in this tour today looks a prospect
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 3 days ago #72581

Pinot 33/1 WSB and Pauwels 66/1 Betx for me today

I expect GC action with Bardet sending a couple in the break but fancy the break may get far enough ahead for the strong ones to hang on. Pinot and Pauwels crest the final climb together working well to finish 1-2 and in so doing propel me up the Fantasy League table
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 3 days ago #72583

The next two stages are what this tour is about. No short sharp ramps to the finish - its proper Alp mountain climbing now.

There are a number of things that I look forward to watching in the next couple of days:

Uran has looked great and Columbian in theory should be even better suited to the higher altitude climbing we get in the Alps. Is he happy chasing a podium or could we see something dramatic from the veteran who is surprising everyone...

The short sharper climbs have seen men like Bardet, Dan Martin, Aru and Yates flourish but can they be as successful on long steady climbs at altitude? In reality there is a steady 30km incline today from the Sprint point and then also the beautiful double barrel effect of the Telegraphe and Galibier a little while later. Only REAL climbers will succeed here. Tomorrow we also have two big Col's in the last 60km of the stage.

Sky have gotten Landa into the mix at 1:17 down. During the next two stages they could use Landa as the "dummy" play. Sky should send Landa out as "bait" to force Ag2R to chase him down. With Astana having no team power, Canondale not much better and Martin now further down it will only be Bardet's team that can really offer anything. Of course for Froome this could actually backfire somewhat - if Bardet and his squad break then Landa could ride away and into a strong lead.

Then we have the Quintana, Pinot and Contador conundrum. All three are true mountain goats who would usually be strong favourites on either of these two stages. The racing could be animated by any one of these going for a long range attack from the Col de la Croix (less so from Pinot as he will be offered complete freedom but equally fun to watch).

Lastly one has to wonder whether the incredible resurrection of Warren Barguil can continue in the coming days. Along with Landa he has actually looked the strongest going uphill. I for one was ready to write the Frenchman off after a promising start to his career but he seems to be in sublime climbing form at present and there is no reason why he can't pick up another win in one of the final two climbing stages.

Who will fly up the slopes and who will come unstuck and give up the ghost in the next day or two... We are about to find out what everyone is made of and I can't wait!
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 3 days ago #72584

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Very pleased EBH got his tyre in front of Degenkolb to bring the treble home. Tough stage to call today. The break's chances depend on when AG2R decide to attack which could be as late as the downhill off the cat 1 about 50km out - then there is always AC. Provisionally going with a match bet double but will keep an eye on twitter before picking outrights.

Mollema over Betancur into
Pauwels over Buchman @ 7/2
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 3 days ago #72585

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Not much on twitter other then Lotto Soudal also have a tummy bug doing the rounds which explains why my man Greipel in the fantasy league was unable to contest the sprint :sick:

Sunweb have a 47km stage today to get Matthews to the sprint point. I think Sky may as well go along for the ride. Immediately after the sprint point is the first HC of the day with the steepest slopes at the bottom - not ideal for a break. I don't see a break getting enough time anywhere to stay away for the day so am taking

Uran @ 10/1
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 3 days ago #72588

A Barguil led Sunweb could lead the break out today as they will be pushing like mad. The Frenchie could then kick on from there.

Alternatively we could get a few guys just outside the top 10 trying to fly free on the Telegraphe. Should be AC and perhaps Quintana, the question is just whether Landa will join. The likes of Curuso, Betancur etc could also move here but the pace of Sky might prevent this. Barguil just too short for me and thus no bets form my side. Think I will enjoy the stage enough without a betting interest :)
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 3 days ago #72589

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Taken some Mollema @ 14/1 in running
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 3 days ago #72593

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Kittell just abandoned.
For anyone interrested.
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 3 days ago #72598

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mackem wrote:
Frustrated with EBH 2nd on Tuesday, think he was the strongest but he didn't have the nouse of Matthews on the day.


Wednesday Stage 17 preview

Roglic at 33/1 and Bardet at 8/1

Free (B) in Knysna tonight :cheer:
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 3 days ago #72601

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The Vann wrote:
mackem wrote:
Frustrated with EBH 2nd on Tuesday, think he was the strongest but he didn't have the nouse of Matthews on the day.


Wednesday Stage 17 preview

Roglic at 33/1 and Bardet at 8/1

Free (B) in Knysna tonight :cheer:

Or further down the coast as the Vann made his 7/2 double (B)
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 3 days ago #72602

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Shot Vann, my first winning pick since Stage 1 :oops: but a cracking way to break a bad run (B)

Good work with your double, looking at Thursday now
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 3 days ago #72604

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Stage 18 preview, probably well wide of the mark here but just in case he has good legs on the day, can't resist 40/1 for NQ
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 2 days ago #72609

Brilliant stuff Mackem you beauty!! (B)

Some superb efforts on the day:
Contador was all heart as he gave it everything and actually did well to hang in for a decent finish at the end despite not having the legs to chase down Roglic.
Bardet and Martin were fantastic in throwing a number of attacks at Sky.
Landa once again proved his incredible climbing form as he just refused to go away and did valuable work for CF.
Barguil just doesn't seem to take a day off in the mountains of late. Wouldn't be surprised to see him right in the mix again today as this is basically his final stage of the Tour.
Matthews has been impressive. Yes Kittle dropped out and "handed" him the jersey but you have to give MM the credit for really throwing everything at clawing back green points at every opportunity and his team making things unbearable for any other sprinters up the climbs.
Of course the man of the day was Roglic.

Disappointments on the day:
It was sad seeing Nairo not being able to go with Alberto despite the latter trying to wait for him.
The problem for both Yates' have been that they just can't mix it with the top mountain men on the steepest of climbs. Again Simon cracked when the going got extremely tough.
Aru was the bright spark early but his star is fading fast now.
Pinot might just as well have skipped this Tour as he was completely out of it.
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 2 days ago #72611

Bets:

Betancur over Kreuzinger onto Barguil over Contador @ 11/10

Froome over Bardet onto Meintjies over Yates @ 11/10

Mollema @ 28/1
Caruso @ 100/1
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 2 days ago #72612

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It looks like a day for the break but most of the second tier climbers either took their shot yesterday or seem to be carrying no form. Will stick with two match bets and a pick from the GC guys.

Meintjies over Yates into
Bardet over Froome @ 2/1 ( was placed before I saw Couch's post - One of us must win :) )

AC over Barguil into
Feillu over Navarro @ 13/2

To win Martin @ 16/1
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 2 days ago #72614

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Rolland sitting in front in neutral zone

Rolland @ 125/1
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 2 days ago #72615

Think the bookies made a mistake on this one, allowed me to cash out on Matthews when they have him at 1.01:1, Thankyou sirs $1 on greipel at 31:1 for the cover which will make up the difference and then some.
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 1 day ago #72620

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Stage 19 preview, Ben Swift for me at 40/1
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 1 day ago #72622

I reckon its a break day today.

The climbing shouldn't be too heavy for the majority of the sprinters but I have a few reasons for thinking we might not see a battle between the fast men.

Less top, winning sprinters: Quickstep wont chase as hard as when they had Kittel in their ranks. Degenkolb is one of the more fancied but the team is not really set-up for him. Cofodis might be losing a bit of confidence in their man Bouhanni who has made headlines for the wrong reasons thus far and even without Sagan or Cav hasn't really looked like winning. Ditto Bahrain Merida with Colbrelli not delivering.

Lack of interest from sprint teams:Sunweb have the green jersey wrapped up and Matthews knows he isn't faster than Greipel or a few of the other sprinters in a straight fight so I don't see them working overly hard. Then you also have Katusha who know that things with Kristoff is not great ito the team dynamic. Di Data might have Cummings in the break and in that case they will also not contribute with the hunt.

Last chance for break: It has been proven that the final stage is poor for a break. Tomorrow we have the TT so today is last chance saloon for the guys hoping to chalk up a win. The terrain with a lumpy start also provides a decent opportunity.

GC teams taking it easy: After two big mountain days the rest of the peloton will be just too keen to free wheel it to the line today. It will literally only be a few sprint teams doing all the work and if a couple of them get someone down the road we could see the break really getting a big lead.

I only see the two Lotto teams and perhaps Cofidis really grinding hard for the sprint win today (and Di Data if they don't get someone in the break).
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 1 day ago #72623

Cummings @ 33/1

Degenkolb over Matthews @ 14/10
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 1 day ago #72624

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Am in step with the majority today. The break goes and stays. So a match bet based on making the break

Degenkolb over Matthews into
Boudat over Vanspeybrouck @ 5/1

To win Colbrelli @ 33/1
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Tour de France 2017 4 months 18 hours ago #72639

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Saturday Stage 20 ITT preview

Chancing Tony Martin at 13/2
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