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TOPIC: Vuelta Espana 2017

Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 1 week ago #73135

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The last of the Grand Tours starts on Saturday, Froome odds on favourite and hard to argue with. Many of the riders who were behind Froome in TdF are lining up, Contadors retires after this and we have Nibali, Zakarin and Lopez so a really good field.

Maybe the outrights will throw something up away from GC later in the week as I'm not taking Froome on and we can use this thread for anything long term and the stage by stage bets.

All thoughts welcome
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Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 6 days ago #73225

Going to have a crack at Yates (Adam) and Kruijwsijk, I don't like Froome and am going to have a stab at him finishing outside the top10.

Is there typically markets for the other jerseys? Haven't really bet on or followed the Vuelta before.
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Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 6 days ago #73226

There are other jerseys but the points jersey for example sometimes goes to a climbers as there are so many stages that end on a climb. I have not bet on other jerseys before.
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Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 6 days ago #73237

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The UCI limit grand tour jerseys to four to avoid confusion ( that's their argument and they are sticking to it)
The Vuelta Espana four jerseys are

RED This is the overall leader jersey and is the same as yellow in the TDF.

GREENThis is called the points jersey. In the Vuelta all stages carry the same points and there are points for intermediate sprints. With all the climbs this jersey favours a climber and has not been won by a sprinter in the last six years. Last win by a sprinter was Cavendish seven years ago.

POLKA DOT This is the King of the Mountains jersey and is pretty much the same as the TDF KOM jersey.

WHITE This is the combination jersey awarded to the rider best placed in the other three jerseys - needless to say its been won by the overall winner in eight of the last ten years. They have tried to get this changed to a young riders jersey but the sponsor has objected. I think the sponsor has been unchanged for many years ( a fertilizer company if memory serves )

The above from memory. I will post corrections if I come across any changes for this year.
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Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 6 days ago #73241

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Normally the Vuelta is my favourite Grand Tour watch of the year because you get proper racing. This year I expect the Sky train to bugger up my viewing. Froome has deliberately shortened his pre TDF season and spent as little energy as possible on the TDF win in order to win the Vuelta where he has been second three times. Sky have given him a team which, in my opinion, is probably stronger then the TDF squad. There is also a lovely 40 km lumpy ITT in the last week which gives him at least 2 minutes on any of his rivals. Where to go with our money?
Sporting bet are offering 1/4 odds for podium and I think AC is kinda past it, Aru has the TDF in his legs, Bardet and Barguill have stated they are only there for stage wins so I am going for Majka on the basis that he has to be brought down whereas Kruiswijk and Zakarin are quite capable of falling on their own. I will cover Majka in the KOM in case something goes wrong in the GC.
Orica with the Yates brothers and Chavez are team favourites but Sky are going to take 7-8 minutes on them in the ITT and Sky made sure they did not give up the team jersey in the TDF when they were leading in the last week.
Barguill might not be going for stage wins but it would be nice to have two KOM jerseys at home.

Vuelta Espana

e/w Majka @ 33/1

KOM Barguill @ 12/1
KOM Majka @ 50/1

Top Team Sky @ 4/1
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Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 5 days ago #73284

Thanks Vann for some quality thoughts!

An unpredictable race meets some volatile riders at the latter part of the season and what you get is a truly mesmerizing encounter but also a very tough one in terms of making predictions.

Cyclists are often emotionally fragile and much depends on the mental "space" that men like Nibali, Bardet and Aru are in. There is also a massive difference for these top riders ito being at 90% vs 100% of your physical conditioning and those who feel the effects of the season more will fall by the way-side.

I am new to the different implications of the Points jersey for the Vuelta compared to TdF. If I have it right no stages are labelled as "Sprint Stages" and as such all count the same toward the points jersey. Thus if you have a strong climber (possibly one with a nice finishing kick) getting himself in the top10 of a dozen stages he has a good chance at taking the jersey. For mind that sounds like a Valverde type. Froome the favourite but if I read things right then Nibali could be a good price here @ 9/1.

King of the Mountains is usually my favoruite pre-race play.
Thomas de Gendt should give a good account of himself @ 22/1
A lot has been said of Miguel Angel Lopez and at 33/1 I am giving him some skins to impress me

On the team front I will follow Vann with his Sky bet.

In terms of outright it is tough looking past Froome. Hoping Zakarin will be fired up for a big one.
Zakarin top 3 @ 29/10 with Sunbet

Lastly good old Joe gets my vote for a bit of a long shot. He will be leading Canondale so hoping the American has a good race.
Dombrowski top 10 @ 10/1 with WSB
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Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 5 days ago #73291

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Couch - Thanks for the mention of the top 10 market. Was not listed earlier in the week.

Top 10 Caruso @ 9/1
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Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 4 days ago #73302

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Vuelta Stage 2
Can't see BMC getting any help from GC teams ( possibly one rider from Trek for Degenkolb and Theuns) so they have to hope that Quick-Step (Trentin) , UAE (Modolo) and Aqua Blue (Blythe) all miss the break.
I don't see anything in the match bets for the stage so have gone for

Sportingbets The Field excluding 23 listed riders @ 11/2

Go the break
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Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 4 days ago #73316

Nice one Vann
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Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 4 days ago #73317

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Brent Graham wrote:
Nice one Vann

Story of my weekend I am afraid. Lampaerts second last name on list of 23 riders - so no win :sick:
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Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 4 days ago #73319

No ways I felt for sure he wouldn't have been quoted - stiff man
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Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 3 days ago #73327

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Unlucky Vann, also would have thought Sunday's winner would have missed that list.

Interesting stage on Monday, I haven't had chance to see how teams have set up in terms of their support for the GC men so a speculative stab at the break and that can only mean Thomas de Gendt at around 25/1
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Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 3 days ago #73329

Havent had time to research this Vuelta yet so a shot in the dark with Betancur at 66/1
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Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 3 days ago #73332

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Vuelta Stage 3
In yesterdays cross winds on a small incline around 5 km out Bardet cruised past 60 riders to position himself near the front - and he can definitely descend. I don't know if Chavez is up to full strength yet. This does not strike me as a Costa stage and Zakarin is useless down hill all of which leads me to

Match bets
Aru over Chavez @ 18/10
Woods over Costa @ 12/10
AC over Zakarin @ 11/10
and for the stage should the break not stay
Bardet @ 33/1

( Should have mentioned the stage finishes with a descent and only 1 km flat )
Last Edit: 1 month 3 days ago by The Vann.
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Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 2 days ago #73344

Theuns at 5/1 for me today
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Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 2 days ago #73345

I have also taken 8/10 Orica to win the team comp at Sportingbet

I don't see many teams capable of fighting for this and given the number of MTF's just placing their 3 GC men well up each day should see them build a big lead.

My main concern is that one of the Yates brothers fades as they have both ridden hard Grand Tours and I am not sure there is much in the way of depth in the team
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Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 2 days ago #73351

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With Sky riding down the breaks that Orica team bet looks good but,as you say Brent, it's reliant on all three of them finishing. At 8/10 just too short for my liking.

Vuelta Stage 4
Stage win Blythe @ 8/1
and one match bet
Debusschere over van Asbroeck @ evens

My pre race podium pick ended with a choice of two 33/1 shots Majka and Chavez. Man I hate my lucky coin :silly:
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Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 1 day ago #73361

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The Vann wrote:

My pre race podium pick ended with a choice of two 33/1 shots Majka and Chavez. Man I hate my lucky coin :silly:

Just found out what the problem is. Majka has a tummy bug. Even the bleeding bugs are ganging up against punters these days :ohmy:
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Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 1 day ago #73363

Really tough finish today and spreading some units around on

Geniez 33/1
De Gendt 33/1
Pantano 66/1
Betancur 80/1
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Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 1 day ago #73364

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I will throw in Rui Costa at around 33/1, a couple of minutes back and not going to be a GC threat.
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Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 1 day ago #73368

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Quick-Step seem to be the in form team and I will go with their best chance

Alaphilippe @ 10/1

and we have evenly matched twin brothers on offer

Match bet S Yates over A Yates @ 2/1
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Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 10 hours ago #73392

Anthony Roux today at 250/1 at WSB and Reyes at 300/1

Wide open stage - like De Gendt but so do the bookies
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Vuelta Espana 2017 1 month 8 hours ago #73403

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Going with the break again today

Fraile @ 18/1
Hansen @ 150/1
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Vuelta Espana 2017 4 weeks 1 day ago #73472

Have just caught some highlights thus far but looking to get stuck into the weekend's action.

GC takes the spotlight today but it doesn't mean a break can't get away. Perhaps Im still stuck on the TdF but there are some class riders who haven't found their legs thus far in the Vuelta. Im hoping one of these has one good stage left in their legs:
Aru @ 33/1
Barguil @ 33/1
Bardet @ 50/1

Then just in case the break makes it Im backing Atapuma @ 25/1
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Vuelta Espana 2017 4 weeks 1 day ago #73491

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Vuelta Stage 8
Not having any joy picking a rider in the break so two match bet doubles for me today

Chavez over Froome into Bardet over Pozzovivo @ 6/1
Zakarin over TJ into Pardila over Anton @ 13/2

Really miss Valverde and Dan Martin perfect stage for them today.
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Vuelta Espana 2017 4 weeks 1 day ago #73492

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No fun without at least trying for someone in the break. Polanc only 4 min back so going with

Navarro @ 100/1
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Vuelta Espana 2017 4 weeks 9 hours ago #73554

Polanc put in a gutsy ride yesterday Vann!

Strange stage with the long flat and then the hill (twice). Tough for the right type of break to get away I reckon. Also feel Froome might be getting hungry for a win so Sky could pull today.

Woods @ 20/1 - in great form and should have a touch more freedom
Atapuma @ 25/1 - sticking with him
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Vuelta Espana 2017 4 weeks 9 hours ago #73555

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Well I finally made a bet yesterday. The 13/2 paid. Today's stage is virtually identical except that it finishes on top of the final climb.

Match bet double
A Yates over TJ into Bardet over Pozzovivo @ 28/10

and for a win from the break
De Marchi @ 50/1
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Vuelta Espana 2017 3 weeks 5 days ago #73619

Huge week coming up in the Veulta gents!

Two good mountain stages today and tomorrow and a few more toward the weekend.

Unfortunately the bookies are expecting the same thing I am for today. Descent to the line which by all accounts is a touch tricky and technical. Ala P, Bardet and Nibali always catch my attention on stages like these.

Surely Sky won't be interested in a chase today thus its all about the break for me.

One bet only:
LL Sanchez for the win at a short 9/1
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Vuelta Espana 2017 3 weeks 5 days ago #73628

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Reportedly rain expected on the final climb and descent so break for me today.

Sportingbet Field excluding 20 listed riders @ 35/20

and for the win
Poljanski @ 50/1
De Marchi @ 50/1
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Vuelta Espana 2017 3 weeks 4 days ago #73654

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Vuelta Stage 11
Very little info coming through on twitter this morning re stage, weather, who feels good etc. No info on why books make Majka such an outright favourite for the stage?
A match bet and my pick from Quick Step for the stage

Pauwels over Fraile @ 12/10
Win Mas @ 22/10

The field bet paid yesterday but I expect AC to attack on the first Cat 1 so not sure a break will stay away.
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Vuelta Espana 2017 3 weeks 4 days ago #73657

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The Vann wrote:
Vuelta Stage 11
Very little info coming through on twitter this morning re stage, weather, who feels good etc. No info on why books make Majka such an outright favourite for the stage?
A match bet and my pick from Quick Step for the stage

Pauwels over Fraile @ 12/10
Win Mas @ 22/10

The field bet paid yesterday but I expect AC to attack on the first Cat 1 so not sure a break will stay away.
Absolutely bucketing down and cold on top of the climbs. No big risks from GC and Froome hates this weather. Break must have a good chance

Sportingbet field excluding 21 listed riders @ 3/1
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Vuelta Espana 2017 3 weeks 4 days ago #73668

Been so busy at work I haven't had a chance to get into this Vuelta, both my decoders being on the blink doesn't help either
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Vuelta Espana 2017 3 weeks 3 days ago #73673

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Brent Graham wrote:
Been so busy at work I haven't had a chance to get into this Vuelta, both my decoders being on the blink doesn't help either

This may help. Second day in a row " The Field" bet pays at Sportingbet. Well done young Lopez :cheer:
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Vuelta Espana 2017 3 weeks 3 days ago #73686

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Very impressed with Lopez yesterday Vann

Thursday, break looks likely, Di Data have been having a go all week, hoping Omar Fraile is their designated man for Stage 12 at around 28/1
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Vuelta Espana 2017 3 weeks 3 days ago #73692

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Besides making a few pennies yesterday I was really pleased to see the 2nd and 3rd counting Sky riders for the team did not sit up and they made up over 8 min in the team comp. Couch and the Vann's 4/1 is still in play.
Vuelta Stage 12
Trentin won over a very similar stage two days ago. The question is - does he go today when tomorrow is a sprint stage and better suited. He is only 3 points ahead of Froome and I believe that to win the green jersey he has to go both days as Saturday and Sunday are definitely out.

Win Trentin @ 16/1
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Vuelta Espana 2017 3 weeks 2 days ago #73726

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Vuelta Stage 13
Sprint stage today with probably 4-5 sprint teams prepared to chase a break will be looking at a bunch finish. Hard to see past Trentin but the run in has a few lumps in the final 3 kms so a decent TT can spring a surprise.

Trentin @ 18/10
Oliveira @ 200/1
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Vuelta Espana 2017 3 weeks 1 day ago #73770

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Vuelta Stage 14
Tomorrow's stage is one of those classic short stages where anything can happen so I expect the GC riders to try and conserve as much energy as possible ( AC ? ) today. Two from the break for me

e/w Soler @ 25/1
e/w Polanc @ 80/1
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Vuelta Espana 2017 3 weeks 1 day ago #73772

I reckon Zakarin is improving and taken 45/1 outright and 10/1 without Froome
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Vuelta Espana 2017 3 weeks 1 day ago #73774

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I'm going Atapuma on Saturday at 14/1 with KoM in mind
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Vuelta Espana 2017 3 weeks 1 day ago #73776

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I have gone for 2 outsiders

Igor Anton @ 125/1
Buchman @ 150/1

I have also taken a match bet of Contador over Lopez @ 11/10

I personally think Contador is getting stronger (kiss of death :dry: ), and he needs to start making up time on his rivals if he wants to finish with a podium. So he needs to start beating the likes of Lopez

A bit disappointed with the coverage of this tour this year, we only seem to get the last hour of racing, or am I just tuning in to late.
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Vuelta Espana 2017 3 weeks 1 day ago #73779

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mackem wrote:
I'm going Atapuma on Saturday at 14/1 with KoM in mind

My third choice so will be joining you also at 14/1
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Vuelta Espana 2017 3 weeks 1 day ago #73780

Brent Graham wrote:
I reckon Zakarin is improving and taken 45/1 outright and 10/1 without Froome

Who offers the Without Froome market BG??
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Vuelta Espana 2017 3 weeks 1 day ago #73781

Two big stages today and tomorrow.

Also wish they showed more than the last hour and a half!

Today:
Carapaz @ 40/1
Haig @ 70/1
Pardilla @ 150/1
Taaramae @ 175/1
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Vuelta Espana 2017 3 weeks 1 day ago #73786

Couch Critic wrote:
Brent Graham wrote:
I reckon Zakarin is improving and taken 45/1 outright and 10/1 without Froome

Who offers the Without Froome market BG??

Sorry late reply, I could only find it at Betxchange
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Vuelta Espana 2017 3 weeks 9 hours ago #73827

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Vuelta Stage 15
Love these short stages - makes for great racing. The problem for the GC guys chasing Froome today is the sharp, steep ramped climb lies at 65km with the final climb 19km at 5.6% - a perfect Froome climb. I think the break has 65km to establish around an 8 min lead otherwise it does not stay. I cannot see this happening so a GC finish. I would give Lopez an outside chance against Froome over the final km but at 24/10 I will give that a miss and, in cycling units ( to 10 ) take 5 on

Froome @ 7/1
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Vuelta Espana 2017 3 weeks 8 hours ago #73828

I think the break has a fair chance today and going Lopes Garcia at 50/1 and Alaphillpe at 66/1 and I have also thrown in Pardilla at 140/1

Also a match bet Kruiswjk over Poels at 16/10

Poels is looking very good but he may have to do alot of work today to protect Froome and it may just be that he sits up at some point

Should be a great stage today
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Vuelta Espana 2017 3 weeks 8 hours ago #73829

This should be a CRACKER of a stage and fortunately Supersport give us the longer coverage today.

I am expecting Contador to have a go on Hazallanas already. It shouldn't work but it will really blow the race wide open!

Break should have little chance for the stage but if things are crazy and disorganised up Purche and Hoya de la Mora it could be fun for the likes of Lopez, Bardet, Carapaz and Zakarin who could be allowed a touch more freedom.

Bardet @ 15/2
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Vuelta Espana 2017 2 weeks 5 days ago #73858

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Vuelta Stage 16
Two match bets for me today based on knowledge of only one rider in the bet. Chavez is a rubbish time trialist and I find it hard to believe that Woods can be 28/10 worse then him. Meintjies is no great shakes at the flat time trial and he is also 9 minutes ahead of Nieve which means he is not racing for anything today. Pardilla is an invited team leader and may take a run at the time trial.
Match bets
Woods over Chavez @ 28/10
Pardilla over Meintjies @ 22/10
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Vuelta Espana 2017 2 weeks 5 days ago #73860

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Sunday's stage proved without doubt that Froome is interested in the win only. He could easily have gone with Zakarin near the end. This means he is not interested in any of the other jerseys. This makes the KOM jersey a contest between Majka and Lopez. Majka has only shown on one stage and I have pre race cover on him at 50/1. Of the overall bets out there I rate this one the pick of the bunch

KOM Lopez evens @ WSB

( Or you could have followed Couch and taken him pre race @ 33/1 :woohoo: )
Last Edit: 2 weeks 5 days ago by The Vann.
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