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TOPIC: Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby

Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73561

No Rugby Champs this week but certainly enough rugby to keep us punters going although I will miss the women's rugby which I really enjoyed.

Personally showed a loss on the weekend after a Friday night disaster on the Bulls and was relieved to pull back quite a bit.

Here are my Currie Cup handicap projections for round 8

Bulls -10.5 v Griquas - no idea how to cap this really, based on Bulls in Nelspruit Griquas should probably start favourite :P

Lions -13.5 v Pumas

Sharks -4.5 v Cheetahs

I battle with these Currie Cup caps but the good news is that I think the bookies do as well.
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73563

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Brent, with the Pro 14 starting this weekend and the Cheetahs playing Ulster on Friday night I reckon your handicap for the Sharks might be at least 10 points light. Maybe even more.
Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73567

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Mitre 10 cup lines are out already and a couple stand out.

Auckland still getting to much credit I had this game vs Waikato at evens. It is a tough week for Auckland on three days rest before playing this game, this will follow another 3 days rest before playing North Harbour on Sunday. I expect some player rotation in both these games which could mean more players on debut for Auckland. This will probably be the last time the bookies overestimate Auckland.

The other game that caught my eye was Manawatu. I think Otago is the better team but this could be a good let down spot for them after the big shield challenge effort.

Hawks bay is terrible Canturbury will destroy them.

Just waiting to see official lineups 9 All blacks return this week mainly reserves and fringe Allblacks though.
www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/all-blacks/9...players-for-npc-duty
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73568

hanrick wrote:
Brent, with the Pro 14 starting this weekend and the Cheetahs playing Ulster on Friday night I reckon your handicap for the Sharks might be at least 10 points light. Maybe even more.

Thanks Hanrick I hadn't realized that and agree - I wonder if any of the early bird bookies will miss that

Thanks for the thoughts on the Mitre10 R3
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73569

Brent Graham wrote:
hanrick wrote:
Brent, with the Pro 14 starting this weekend and the Cheetahs playing Ulster on Friday night I reckon your handicap for the Sharks might be at least 10 points light. Maybe even more.

Thanks Hanrick I hadn't realized that and agree - I wonder if any of the early bird bookies will miss that

Thanks for the thoughts on the Mitre10 R3

The dream of that is over now that its written on here :lol:
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73570

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Many thanks to Couch for the latest edition of ~~Post Match scuffle which is available here
twitter: @goodforthegame
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73580

Right folks, not going to hear much from me this week because I've taken the morning to decide my play for the week and I'm not even going to try work out how many units I'm going to put on. Lining myself up for a serious egg on my face but I'll try talk through my reasoning as best as possible.

Sharks -12.5 one of my biggest plays in a long time.

I would've personally handicapped this game at around -8.5 if the Cheetahs played the same team they did last weekend. The sharks have looked top notch in the last few weeks and beat a very good team last week in Western Province. It took me a bit of time to work out who could potentially play for the Cheetahs this weekend so if you take the 56 players in their Currie Cup squad on their website and take away the 28 players going on tour and the couple in the Springbok set up you are left with a bunch of supersport challenge guys who got beaten 26-0 vs a weak Province team in the Semi's and some youngsters. The only assumption I am making is that the Sharks won't rest half their team and being a top of the table clash I doubt (I will be praying every night that they don't) that will happen. I think when the lineups are announced we will see a handicap of around -22.5 and I think even that won't be enough, this handicap should be upwards of 30 imo. This is essentially a Cheetahs 3rd team with the amount of players missing. Admittedly I also took -15.5 earlier today when wsb came out with their caps first because I thought that was a gift, if any Bookies go lower than 12.5 I might mortgage my house.
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73581

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Sharks -12.5 @ 8/10 with Betx. Have got stuck into that, doesn't need rocket science to realise this is value.

20 units play.
"He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life." Muhammad Ali.
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73582

southpaw wrote:
Sharks -12.5 @ 8/10 with Betx. Have got stuck into that, doesn't need rocket science to realise this is value.

20 units play.

If there's one thing I've learnt today its what size bet makes a price on their platform go from 9/10 to 8/10 :lol:
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73583

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Cant get on at BetX

South has broken them :woohoo: :woohoo: :silly: :silly: :woohoo: :woohoo:
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73584

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Lions -6.5 also massive value, see South hasn't touched that one :lol:
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73586

RuggaBugga wrote:
Cant get on at BetX

South has broken them :woohoo: :woohoo: :silly: :silly: :woohoo: :woohoo:

Anything under 22.5 is Christmas imo, -14.5 still too low
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73587

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Max Bet on the Sharks -14.5
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73588

The Missing Link wrote:
RuggaBugga wrote:
Cant get on at BetX

South has broken them :woohoo: :woohoo: :silly: :silly: :woohoo: :woohoo:

Anything under 22.5 is Christmas imo, -14.5 still too low

-14.5 lasted a full 3 minutes, -16.5 still too low but at least wsb will get hit before them again now.
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73589

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WSB suspended :lol: :lol: :lol:
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73590

RuggaBugga wrote:
WSB suspended :lol: :lol: :lol:

Took a bit more for good measure there :lol: It's our money vs the two guys jobs who priced this game up on Saturday :lol:
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73591

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Incredible!
BetX now -26.5 for Sharkies
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73592

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Cheetahs’ 28-man squad for PRO14: Charles Marais, Ox Nche, Joseph Dweba, Jacques du Toit, Torsten van Jaarsveld, Erich de Jager, Aranos Coetzee, Tom Botha, Justin Basson, Armandt Koster, Reniel Hugo, Rynier Bernardo, Paul Schoeman, Henco Venter, Gerhard Olivier, Niell Jordaan, Shaun Venter, Tian Meyer, Zee Mkhabela, Cecil Afrika, Robbie Petzer, Makazole Mapimpi, Ali Mgijima, William Small-Smith, Rayno Benjamin, Rosko Specman, Sergeal Petersen, Clayton Blommetjies

None of these fella's playing in the CC this weekend :silly: :silly: :silly:

Cannot believe the oke who priced that up initially :ohmy: :ohmy: :ohmy:
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
Last Edit: 3 weeks 6 days ago by RuggaBugga.
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73593

RuggaBugga wrote:
Cheetahs’ 28-man squad for PRO14: Charles Marais, Ox Nche, Joseph Dweba, Jacques du Toit, Torsten van Jaarsveld, Erich de Jager, Aranos Coetzee, Tom Botha, Justin Basson, Armandt Koster, Reniel Hugo, Rynier Bernardo, Paul Schoeman, Henco Venter, Gerhard Olivier, Niell Jordaan, Shaun Venter, Tian Meyer, Zee Mkhabela, Cecil Afrika, Robbie Petzer, Makazole Mapimpi, Ali Mgijima, William Small-Smith, Rayno Benjamin, Rosko Specman, Sergeal Petersen, Clayton Blommetjies

None of these fella's playing in the CC this weekend :silly: :silly: :silly:

Cannot believe the oke who priced that up initially :ohmy: :ohmy: :ohmy:

If you want to have a laugh write down the names of the players listed on the Cheetahs website as in their Currie cup squad. Then cross off the guys touring, Cassiem, Francios Venter and Mahoje. Now try pick their strongest 15 and that's what the Sharks are up against, its comical like I mentioned earlier.

The touring squad was out before bookies priced up too they were just too lazy to check how bad it was because they clearly adjusted upwards for players leaving, just not enough. If the handicap loses so be it but I would take this bet every day of the week on the information currently available.
Last Edit: 3 weeks 6 days ago by The Missing Link.
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73594

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So sad that I can't place a bet at WSB or Betx.

Can't believe these guys get paid to price up games and then they make mistakes like this. Come on! This is your job! I took into account that the Cheetahs play in the Pro14 when I placed my outright bets on Sharks and Bulls already before the CC started.

Really pathetic from the so-called traders at WSB and Betx.
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73595

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I can't place at WSB or else they would have been hit hard!

Hanrick, these "traders" that are golden :P
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73596

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Extremely funny that they have the Free State as 2nd favourites for the CC title too. Free State won't make the semi's despite being on top of the log currently. Sharks' title to lose. Glad I got on them at 7/1 and 9/2 respectively. Posted both those bets on this forum.
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73597

They probably still hungover from partying this weekend with all the money they made on the Mcgregor Mayweather fight, I would be too if I was a bookie. They could price up a game like this every week for a year and probably still not lose their profits from this weekend :lol:
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73598

RuggaBugga wrote:
Incredible!
BetX now -26.5 for Sharkies

wsb -29.5
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73599

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The -26.5 still looks the right play :cheer:

Sharks 2nd in the log and flying vs a 3rd team of a Union

This Cheetahs side will have no time to prepare and the combo's will be new. Cheetahs debut in Pro14 on 1 Sept and that is the ONLY game that matters for the Union this weekend

Thanks BG for giving it the Sharks -4.5 in your handicap predictions (B) ;) (B) ;)
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73600

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They make so much money from mug bets (soccer multiples and lotto) I don't think they give a shit about rugby mistakes like these. Hope you boys got the lot.
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73601

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shaft wrote:
They make so much money from mug bets (soccer multiples and lotto) I don't think they give a shit about rugby mistakes like these. Hope you boys got the lot.

Hey. I made a soccer acca two seasons ago :lol:

Is it too early to thank you for the Curry Cup Rd 2 post of Sharks 8/1 @ Sportingbet?
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73602

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The Vann wrote:
shaft wrote:
They make so much money from mug bets (soccer multiples and lotto) I don't think they give a shit about rugby mistakes like these. Hope you boys got the lot.

Hey. I made a soccer acca two seasons ago :lol:

Is it too early to thank you for the Curry Cup Rd 2 post of Sharks 8/1 @ Sportingbet?

Lol rather defer that Vann. Remember, the Springboks once lost to Japan :dry:
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 6 days ago #73604

Geez what a day to be stuck in meetings - I missed all the action

As said above the bookies did allow for the Cheetahs obligations when they priced up (unlike me LOL) but they def under estimated the chamges

Credit to them for pricing up the Currie Cup so early though - it's very easy to just wait till Thursday before following
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 5 days ago #73606

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Brent Graham wrote:
Geez what a day to be stuck in meetings - I missed all the action

As said above the bookies did allow for the Cheetahs obligations when they priced up (unlike me LOL) but they def under estimated the chamges

Credit to them for pricing up the Currie Cup so early though - it's very easy to just wait till Thursday before following

Agree 100% re credit for pricing up early. I see far too many bookies waiting until wed of only thurs to even get their first handicap line out, too easy to just follow, it's hardly even bookmaking.

Give me early prices and then depth of markets over pr gimmicks and distractions like Russian Lottery, magic balls and other random garbage any day.
"He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life." Muhammad Ali.
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 5 days ago #73607

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Unfortunately don't have a book with those sharks odds shame but we will see when the are released over here.

Auckland has named their squad I decided to grab the +7.5 just before it got taken of the board. Auckland has named an even younger squad as expected. 5 players to make their debut literally school boys..... another 6 have less than 2 caps. Fekitoa has been rested and Akira Ioane returns after ABS duty. I'll be grabbing some Waikato to win SU as well.

Still no update on the Waikato team to play
Last Edit: 3 weeks 5 days ago by R3V3R3NT_.
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 5 days ago #73608

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Brent, have a go at projections for the Cheetahs and Kings pro14 games. I haven't seen anything yet.
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 5 days ago #73610

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Must admit I didn't think we would see any sort of price on Sharks v Cheetahs until much later in the week :)


Thanks to Oracle for his recap of last weeks picks which is available here

Prices have been out for a while but here are Oracle's handicap projections for this week.

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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 5 days ago #73611

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Have just watched Oracle's handicap expectations. He (like the bookies) have no idea of the Pro14 starting this weekend.
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 5 days ago #73613

and he clearly didn't read the forum yesterday :silly:
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 5 days ago #73614

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R3V3R3NT_ wrote:
Unfortunately don't have a book with those sharks odds shame but we will see when the are released over here.

Auckland has named their squad I decided to grab the +7.5 just before it got taken of the board. Auckland has named an even younger squad as expected. 5 players to make their debut literally school boys..... another 6 have less than 2 caps. Fekitoa has been rested and Akira Ioane returns after ABS duty. I'll be grabbing some Waikato to win SU as well.

Still no update on the Waikato team to play

Thanks for this Reverent. Have taken a look at the Auckland team and it looks very inexperienced. Have taken a solid strike at the Waikato +7.
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 5 days ago #73615

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It's a real pity that Supersport will not be broadcasting the Pro14 games. With two SA teams in it I thought we would see the tournament on our TV screens. They give us crap like the NRC from Australia, but they probably get that for a very low price.

Here's the Cheetahs squads for the Pro14 and CC respectively. Handful of recognisable names in the CC squad and Nico Lee jumped out at me. Very good centre. I guess he's coming back from an injury, but will likely join the Pro14 squad soon.

Cheetahs 28-man squad for first two Pro14 games in Ireland: Cecil Afrika, Justin Basson, Tom Botha, Rynier Bernardo, Ryno Benjamin, Clayton Blommetjies, Aranos Coetzee, Erich de Jager, Joseph Dweba, Jacques du Toit, Reniel Hugo, Niell Jordaan, Armandt Koster, Charles Marais, Makazole Mapimpi, Ali Mgijima, Mthokozisi Mkhabela, Tian Meyer, Retshegofaditswe Nche, Gerhard Olivier, Sergeal Peterson, Robbie Petzer, Rosko Specman, Paul Schoeman, William Small-Smith, Shaun Venter, Henco Venter, Torsten van Jaarsveld.

Free State Cheetahs team for next two round of the Currie Cup: Dian Badenhorst, Carel Jan Coetzee, Chris Dry, Luan de Bruin, Ryno Eksteen, Reinhardt Erwee, Loyd Greeff, Elandre Huggett, Nicolaas Immelman, Gunter Janse van Rensburg, Jacobus Jonker, Johan Kotze, Andrew Kuhn, Nico Lee, Daniel Maartens, Vuyani Maqina, Marco Mason, Luther Obi, Junior Pokomela, Sibabalo Qoma, Refuoe Rampeta, Tiaan Schutte, Jean-Pierre Smith, Ernst Stapelberg, Stephan van Rensburg, Abram Venter, Ntokozo Vidima, Dennis Visser, Jasper Wiese, Carl Wegner.
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 5 days ago #73616

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hanrick wrote:
R3V3R3NT_ wrote:
Unfortunately don't have a book with those sharks odds shame but we will see when the are released over here.

Auckland has named their squad I decided to grab the +7.5 just before it got taken of the board. Auckland has named an even younger squad as expected. 5 players to make their debut literally school boys..... another 6 have less than 2 caps. Fekitoa has been rested and Akira Ioane returns after ABS duty. I'll be grabbing some Waikato to win SU as well.

Still no update on the Waikato team to play

Thanks for this Reverent. Have taken a look at the Auckland team and it looks very inexperienced. Have taken a solid strike at the Waikato +7.

Agreed on this, average of 10 caps per player in the 23, and rain forecast. As soon as it started raining last week Auckland fell apart and Northland came back into it. I've taken the cap but also a smaller interest in the outright win.
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 5 days ago #73618

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R3V3R3NT_ wrote:
Unfortunately don't have a book with those sharks odds shame but we will see when the are released over here.

Auckland has named their squad I decided to grab the +7.5 just before it got taken of the board. Auckland has named an even younger squad as expected. 5 players to make their debut literally school boys..... another 6 have less than 2 caps. Fekitoa has been rested and Akira Ioane returns after ABS duty. I'll be grabbing some Waikato to win SU as well.

Still no update on the Waikato team to play

Waikato team is out, also quite a few changes:

www.mooloo.co.nz/news/waikato-team-named-to-play-auckland/
Last Edit: 3 weeks 5 days ago by Cettas.
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 5 days ago #73620

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That Waikato team looks very light. Hope the handicap comes in. Will then take a bit of cover.
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 5 days ago #73621

Still blows my mind how professional athletes can't play 3 games in 10 days and need to be rested
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 5 days ago #73624

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Ulster Rugby 1/4 Draw 18/1 Cheetahs 28/10
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 5 days ago #73625

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Scarlets 2/25 Draw 30/1 Southern Kings 6/1
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 5 days ago #73633

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Rohan, where did you find those odds? WSB still only has outrights.

28/10 means the cap will be around +7.5 / +8.5. I think a small punt on the Cheetahs may be in order, they've played 6 competitive matches together whereas Ulster are coming in cold after a 55-12 thumping from Northampton.
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 5 days ago #73634

Sunbet but they don't have handicaps last time I checked
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 5 days ago #73635

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Hey boys. Saw Betway advertising over the weekend and took a look at their site.
They have Cheetahs at 4/1 so have taken a stab at that as massive value. No points lines out but the 4/1 is cracking. Ulster were 5th last year and Ruan Pienaar has left them with John Cooney coming in as their scrummy.

The Cheetahs have had great prep for this with their CC campaign and that backline could catch Ulster by surprise. Blommetjies, Speckman and Peterson are lightning at the back. The Cheetahs will be more motivated and more match fit. Will be all over that + when it comes up.

Hopefully the same okes that priced up the Sharks game price this one up :blink: :woohoo: :lol:
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 5 days ago #73636

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Hiya

Betfair has the handicap since last week – here is a screen


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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 5 days ago #73637

  • Rohan11
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Sunbet Yes

I will definitely back the Cheetahs on the plus and for win. They will be going out to make a statement.
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 4 days ago #73641

  • Cettas
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Currie Cup Rd 8, Mitre10 Cup Rd3 + European rugby 3 weeks 4 days ago #73642

  • Stoossy
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The Missing Link wrote:
Still blows my mind how professional athletes can't play 3 games in 10 days and need to be rested


you go try play 3 social games in 10 days..... my money would be on that you would not even make 3 cricket games in 10 days lol
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