Rugby Champs Wk 3, Currie Cup R9, Pro14, Mitre10 +

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9 months 2 weeks ago #1 by Brent Graham
Another massive rugby weekend lies ahead with the Rugby Champs returning and the Currie Cup, Mitre 10 Cup, Pro14 and other European rugby also offering plenty of betting opportunities

I doubt we will get another feeding frenzy like we got last week with the early Sharks handicap but I am sure there will be some early value.

Here are my projected handicaps for the new week (the Rugby Champs is probably available but I haven't looked yet

Rugby Champs
New Zealand -33.5 v Argentina
Australia -7.5 v South Africa

Currie Cup
Pumas +10.5 v Sharks
Griquas -0.5 v Lions
WP -30.5 v Cheetahs

Pro14 (no more than best guesses)
Munster -18.5 v Cheetahs
Connacht -23.5 v Kings

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9 months 2 weeks ago #2 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Rugby Champs Wk 3, Currie Cup R9, Pro14, Mitre10 +
Had a quick look at our Rugby Champs templates which Chris already has up and I see -30.5 New Zealand and Wallabies 8/10 and Boks 11/10 - I am a bit surprised by that and while my cap may be a bit too high I would be surprised if the market doesn't shift in their favour.

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9 months 2 weeks ago #3 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Rugby Champs Wk 3, Currie Cup R9, Pro14, Mitre10 +
After sleeping on it I took the 8/10 Wallabies at Sporting Bet

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9 months 2 weeks ago #4 by mackem
May as well use Brent's confidence in Australia for the preview, Wallabies v Springboks
6 units, Aus win, 0.83 at BetOlimp, also plenty of 8/10 around elsewhere

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9 months 2 weeks ago #5 by mackem
Big thanks to Couch Critic for the latest edition of Post Match Scuffle which is available here

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9 months 2 weeks ago - 9 months 2 weeks ago #6 by Stark

Brent Graham wrote: After sleeping on it I took the 8/10 Wallabies at Sporting Bet


I'm with you on that one. SA given far too much respect after beating a poor French and a very average Argentine team.
Last edit: 9 months 2 weeks ago by Stark.
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9 months 2 weeks ago #7 by mackem
Oracle had a good weekend, the recap of his bets can be viewed here


Below Oracle presents his handicap expectations for this week



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9 months 2 weeks ago #8 by The Missing Link
Replied by The Missing Link on topic Rugby Champs Wk 3, Currie Cup R9, Pro14, Mitre10 +
I'm of the opposing view and firmly in the Springboks camp. Beaten the handicap in their last 5 matches and I think the result was flattering for the Aussies last week. If anything so far I've been disappointed with the All Blacks, since that first half in the first game I think they've played 3 poor half's of rugby. Would've loved a double digit handicap for the Springboks vs the All Blacks this week but I'm happy to hopefully get a bit of a drift and take SA on the board. Can't forget how poor Australian teams were in Super Rugby and not going to change my opinion of them after one good showing against the All Blacks. Have sided with the Springboks since the start of the French games and will continue to do so until they lose a handicap.
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9 months 2 weeks ago #9 by RuggaBugga
Looks like a split forum on the Walloppies v Boks game. I am in the Boks camp.
Aussies motivation a lot bigger in the Bledisloe Cup and I like the new hunger and belief in the Boks team, they have taken a lot of the Lions psychology into the camp with the "Brotherhood" talk and confidence has grown in 2017.

Also dont rate Cheika as a international coach.

Boks by 7 so will take the +2

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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9 months 2 weeks ago #10 by The Missing Link
Replied by The Missing Link on topic Rugby Champs Wk 3, Currie Cup R9, Pro14, Mitre10 +
Leyds a big loss for Province and Sharks get Bosch back this week. Can only hope he plays fullback and Radebe makes way, he offers nothing but at up and under from the back and he made far too many errors further up the pitch.

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9 months 2 weeks ago - 9 months 2 weeks ago #11 by RuggaBugga
BetX out first, credit to them

Pumas +10 TNB
Griquas -5.5
WP -28.5

All over the Pumas +10TNB
Also like the Lions +5.5

Cheetahs v WP looks about right

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
Last edit: 9 months 2 weeks ago by RuggaBugga.

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9 months 2 weeks ago - 9 months 2 weeks ago #12 by Pierrebal
Wellington v Hawkes Bay is out with Wellington -13.5 @ 17/20.

I think its a gift given Wellington had a extra days rest whereas Hawkes Bay got smashed by Canterbury and have Otago at home on Sunday. Team selections for Hawkes Bay is key as they played their strongest side against a 9 change Canterbury team who still put 50 past them.

Wellington also rotated a couple, most notably Savea, who may be back in the 23 this weekend (haven't seen an All Black call up). I'm inclined to have an early strike on Wellington -13.5 before the team news comes out, for me even if Wellington rotate a few they should easily dispatch of Hawkes Bay, cap should be closer to -25 in my opinion.

Have split my stake:

5 units Wellington -13.5 @ 17/20
3 units Wellington -19.5 @ 17/10
2 units Wellington -25 @ 71/20

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Last edit: 9 months 2 weeks ago by Pierrebal.
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9 months 2 weeks ago #13 by The Missing Link
Replied by The Missing Link on topic Rugby Champs Wk 3, Currie Cup R9, Pro14, Mitre10 +

Pierrebal wrote: Wellington v Hawkes Bay is out with Wellington -13.5 @ 17/20.

I think its a gift given Wellington had a extra days rest whereas Hawkes Bay got smashed by Canterbury and have Otago at home on Sunday. Team selections for Hawkes Bay is key as they played their strongest side against a 9 change Canterbury team who still put 50 past them.

Wellington also rotated a couple, most notably Savea, who may be back in the 23 this weekend (haven't seen an All Black call up). I'm inclined to have an early strike on Wellington -13.5 before the team news comes out, for me even if Wellington rotate a few they should easily dispatch of Hawkes Bay, cap should be closer to -25 in my opinion.

Have split my stake:

5 units Wellington -13.5 @ 17/20
3 units Wellington -19.5 @ 17/10
2 units Wellington -25 @ 71/20


Wellington team is out, they've made 7 changes. Backline still looks very strong with Savea in but forwards do look a bit weaker

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9 months 2 weeks ago #14 by southpaw
seen some Lions +6.5 but can't get a bet on, so Lions +5.5 stand out for me of early caps.

"He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life." Muhammad Ali.

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9 months 2 weeks ago - 9 months 2 weeks ago #15 by Cettas

Bookie Basher wrote:

Bookie Basher wrote: Taken Asafo Aumua Anytime tryscorer at 3.80 decimal with wsb as an interest bet. Absolute beast with ball in hand

Boom! :)


He currently leads the Mitre 10 for most defenders beaten (18). Not bad at all for a hooker and in only three games.
Last edit: 9 months 2 weeks ago by Cettas.

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9 months 2 weeks ago #16 by Pierrebal
I see the anytime tryscorer market is not open yet. If he is around the same price I'm in again!

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9 months 2 weeks ago #17 by bradie82
I am following you on Wellington Pierre – I have been impressed by this team and despite few changes, the team looks still very strong
Therefore I am taking

Wellington by 13+ @ 1.72
Wellington to score first try and win @ 1.80
Wellington to score three unanswered tries @ 2.80
– they did it in the last 2 games

Lachignole

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9 months 2 weeks ago #18 by The Missing Link
Replied by The Missing Link on topic Rugby Champs Wk 3, Currie Cup R9, Pro14, Mitre10 +
Hawkes Bay team looks very weak. Taken some more -14.5 while it's still available.

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9 months 2 weeks ago #19 by RuggaBugga
I am all over that Wellies -14.5

HB are proper toilet! :sick:

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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9 months 2 weeks ago - 9 months 1 week ago #20 by bradie82
Following HB team announcement and with a good forecast, i m adding

Wellington win both halves @ 1.85
Wellington HT/FT x Sale Sharks @ 2.23


Will add more bet later as soon as tries/points are available

Edit :

Wellington race to 35 @ 1.53
Wellington over 5.5 tries @ 2
Wellington over 2.5 tries HT @ 2
Wellington over 18.5 HT @ 1.85

Lachignole
Last edit: 9 months 1 week ago by bradie82.

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9 months 2 weeks ago #21 by Bookie Basher
Replied by Bookie Basher on topic Rugby Champs Wk 3, Currie Cup R9, Pro14, Mitre10 +

Pierrebal wrote: I see the anytime tryscorer market is not open yet. If he is around the same price I'm in again!

Nowhere near that price, he's a miserly 12/10 this time around lol

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9 months 2 weeks ago #22 by Pierrebal
That's a pity, they caught on quickly. The Du Plessis chap, named after Morne, is available at 7/4, he might be one to back in an open game.

With the amount of Wellington try scorers between 12/10 and 15/10 the points market will probably be quite high but at the same time I can't see HB getting many, find the now -15.5 cap still low.

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9 months 2 weeks ago #23 by RuggaBugga
Lions team to face Pumas:
Robbie Coetzee, Jacobie Aarandse, Rhyno Herbst, Marvin Orie, Kwagga Smith, Cyle Brink, Ryan Kankowski, Marco Jansen van Vuuren, Ashlon Davids, Anthony Volmink, Harold Voster, Rohan JVR, Sylvian Mahuza, Jaco vd Walt.

That is a proper backline!!! Happy with the +5.5!

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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9 months 1 week ago #24 by hanrick

RuggaBugga wrote: Lions team to face Pumas:
Robbie Coetzee, Jacobie Aarandse, Rhyno Herbst, Marvin Orie, Kwagga Smith, Cyle Brink, Ryan Kankowski, Marco Jansen van Vuuren, Ashlon Davids, Anthony Volmink, Harold Voster, Rohan JVR, Sylvian Mahuza, Jaco vd Walt.

That is a proper backline!!! Happy with the +5.5!


Gutsy of them playing without a loosehead prop. :P

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9 months 1 week ago #25 by RuggaBugga

hanrick wrote:

RuggaBugga wrote: Lions team to face Pumas:
Robbie Coetzee, Jacobie Aarandse, Rhyno Herbst, Marvin Orie, Kwagga Smith, Cyle Brink, Ryan Kankowski, Marco Jansen van Vuuren, Ashlon Davids, Anthony Volmink, Harold Voster, Rohan JVR, Sylvian Mahuza, Jaco vd Walt.

That is a proper backline!!! Happy with the +5.5!


Gutsy of them playing without a loosehead prop. :P


Throw Jacques van Rooyen in the team and the +5.5 is golden :lol: :lol: :lol:

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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9 months 1 week ago #26 by The Missing Link
Replied by The Missing Link on topic Rugby Champs Wk 3, Currie Cup R9, Pro14, Mitre10 +

RuggaBugga wrote: Lions team to face Pumas:
Robbie Coetzee, Jacobie Aarandse, Rhyno Herbst, Marvin Orie, Kwagga Smith, Cyle Brink, Ryan Kankowski, Marco Jansen van Vuuren, Ashlon Davids, Anthony Volmink, Harold Voster, Rohan JVR, Sylvian Mahuza, Jaco vd Walt.

That is a proper backline!!! Happy with the +5.5!


Kwagga back also very nice, should be favorites with that lineup and the plus is value for sure!
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9 months 1 week ago #27 by RuggaBugga
Serious shift on the Wellington handicap

Its -17.5 at Sunbet and -19.5 at SportingBet!

The -14.5 looking good value!

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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9 months 1 week ago #28 by The Missing Link
Replied by The Missing Link on topic Rugby Champs Wk 3, Currie Cup R9, Pro14, Mitre10 +
Gloucester +6.5 great value in the English Premiership imo. Confidence will be sky high after beating the defending champions last week and Johann Akkerman already looks to have made a mark there. Harlequins lost to a very average London Irish team last week and think the bookies are underrating Gloucester here.
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9 months 1 week ago #29 by bradie82

The Missing Link wrote: Gloucester +6.5 great value in the English Premiership imo. Confidence will be sky high after beating the defending champions last week and Johann Akkerman already looks to have made a mark there. Harlequins lost to a very average London Irish team last week and think the bookies are underrating Gloucester here.


Agree with you on bookies underrating Gloucester but I watched the Quins game and I think LI have been very realistic, Quins very poor with a number of wrong choices and forward pass + I reckon Smith will go on the bench and Catrakilis will start and with that backline, that could be a different story, especially at home

Lachignole

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9 months 1 week ago #30 by Northerner
I'm with everyone on the Wellington game, and gone for the following margins:

36-40 0.4 units @ 20/1
41-45 0.4 units @ 33/1
46-50 0.2 units @ 66/1
51+ 0.3 units @ 66/1

Not looked at prices yet but will be looking heavily at Kwagga Smith fts, ats and for the double

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9 months 1 week ago #31 by Northerner
Also going for Aumua anytime, not as juicy a price but still fancy him against such weak opposition

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9 months 1 week ago #32 by Northerner
Anyone with Bet365, they have first scoring play Canterbury try @ 12/5
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9 months 1 week ago - 9 months 1 week ago #33 by Cettas
Early accumulator punt for the week for me:

Agen +8 - 1.909
Stade Francais +7 - 2.00
Lyon Rugby +6 - 1.909
Saracens 1.615

@ 11.77
Last edit: 9 months 1 week ago by Cettas.
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9 months 1 week ago #34 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Rugby Champs Wk 3, Currie Cup R9, Pro14, Mitre10 +

RuggaBugga wrote: Looks like a split forum on the Walloppies v Boks game. I am in the Boks camp.
Aussies motivation a lot bigger in the Bledisloe Cup and I like the new hunger and belief in the Boks team, they have taken a lot of the Lions psychology into the camp with the "Brotherhood" talk and confidence has grown in 2017.

Also dont rate Cheika as a international coach.

Boks by 7 so will take the +2


A couple of days on and no real movement suggesting the bookies have got this right and no real surprise perhaps that the forum is split.

RB agree with alot of your post but surely Cheika has proved himself as an international manager? If I recall took over a down and out Aussie team prior to the RWC and took them to the final. Just the fact that they were able to push New Zealand in Dunedin on the back of such poor Super Rugby performances is enough for me :lol: :lol: :lol:

Liking the Lions plus as well but really hoping for some spread betting opportunities this week.

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9 months 1 week ago #35 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Rugby Champs Wk 3, Currie Cup R9, Pro14, Mitre10 +

Northerner wrote: Anyone with Bet365, they have first scoring play Canterbury try @ 12/5


Great spot Northerner - it's 11/10 elsewhere.

Not the type of punt I'd usually get involved in but at that price (and the expectation of Canterbury to blow them off the park) it's certainly worth a dabble

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9 months 1 week ago #36 by southpaw
It's no Sharks -12 like last week but that Lions +5.5 definitely the right one for me this weekend. Could also see them winning game but will stick to just the cap.

"He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life." Muhammad Ali.

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9 months 1 week ago #37 by southpaw
Boks 1-12 win margin @ 2/1 (betx) my early play. Not much between these sides in Perth.

"He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life." Muhammad Ali.

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9 months 1 week ago #38 by Quill
Kvitova + Wellington (-11.5 alt handicap @1.48) @2.39

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9 months 1 week ago #39 by Pierrebal
Still firmly in the Wellington camp. 1st scoring play Wellington try 3/1 - WSB.

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9 months 1 week ago #40 by The Missing Link
Replied by The Missing Link on topic Rugby Champs Wk 3, Currie Cup R9, Pro14, Mitre10 +
Savea anytime tryscorer @12/10

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9 months 1 week ago #41 by Quill

Northerner wrote: Anyone with Bet365, they have first scoring play Canterbury try @ 12/5

Got a message from bet365 in relation to my bet @3.40.
They say that they identified an error and as such, according to their rules, they changed the odds to 1.83.

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9 months 1 week ago #42 by hanrick
Have taken Hawkes Bay under 21.5 points at 17/20

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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9 months 1 week ago #43 by Rohan11
Wellington -17.5 @ 17/20 WSB 4 units
Wellington -23.5 @ 16/10 WSB 3 units
Wellington 50+ @ 14/1 Sportingbet 1.5 units
Wellington 41-50 @ 15/2 Sportingbet 1.5 units

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9 months 1 week ago #44 by kompos
H bay +12.5 @ 7/4 (LM)

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9 months 1 week ago #45 by Cettas
Seems Aumua has been ruled out of the game according to the team Twitter feed

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9 months 1 week ago #46 by mackem
Following ther guys who like the Lions although I'll take them to win the game, Griquas v Lions preview
4 units, Golden Lions to win at 5/4 BetXchange

twitter: @goodforthegame

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9 months 1 week ago #47 by TRYline
holy... unreal stuff there

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9 months 1 week ago #48 by RuggaBugga
40-13 after 71 minutes
40-27 FT

That was a bad beat. WOW :sick:

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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9 months 1 week ago #49 by Stoossy

RuggaBugga wrote: 40-13 after 71 minutes
40-27 FT

That was a bad beat. WOW :sick:


ditto :pinch:

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9 months 1 week ago #50 by shaft
On the Golden Lions train. Still some 13/10 available on the straight win.

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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