Welcome, Guest
Username: Password: Remember me

TOPIC: Experiment - Sure bets and Sure Losers

Experiment - Sure bets and Sure Losers 1 week 4 days ago #74161

  • Murfin
  • Murfin's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Posts: 307
  • Thank you received: 75
H Guys

I want to do an experiment and want to get your guys take on it. A while back BG ran a Sure bet experiment where the aim was to try only pick winners no matter how low the odds and try see if it would be profitable BG correct me if I am wrong but it wasn't feasible. I want to experiment with the exact opposite:
- Try pick sure winners (and then bet in the opposite direction / lay the bet)
- Try make picks in competitions and markets that generally lose in and bet the opposite

If BG and the Admins are happy and some guys in the forum are interested. I am keen to sponsor R500 to the winner of each category (R1000 total). If BG is alright in emailing me his bank account details I can put the R1000 in.

- Category 1 - Forum members Try pick sure winners (and I lay against it with small amounts just to test the experiment)
- Category 2 - Forum members make picks in competitions they normally lose in and in markets they bad in (and I lay against it with small amounts just to see if experiment works)

If there is enough interest and BG and the admins are happy to run this experiment in a thread on this forum then I will write up the rules for the 2 categories and a date to start the experiment and then we can start it.
Jesus Saves
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Experiment - Sure bets and Sure Losers 1 week 4 days ago #74162

  • Pierrebal
  • Pierrebal's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Posts: 227
  • Thank you received: 52
Pity Super Rugby is over, we all lost every weekend with the Bulls!
Follow me on @Pierrebal1
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Experiment - Sure bets and Sure Losers 1 week 4 days ago #74163

  • Murfin
  • Murfin's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Posts: 307
  • Thank you received: 75
Pierrebal wrote:
Pity Super Rugby is over, we all lost every weekend with the Bulls!

Haha, still money to be lost / made off them in the Currie Cup :).
Jesus Saves
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Experiment - Sure bets and Sure Losers 1 week 4 days ago #74164

  • Quill
  • Quill's Avatar
  • Online
  • Posts: 3287
  • Thank you received: 480
Pierrebal wrote:
Pity Super Rugby is over, we all lost every weekend with the Bulls!
:lol:
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Experiment - Sure bets and Sure Losers 1 week 4 days ago #74166

  • Quill
  • Quill's Avatar
  • Online
  • Posts: 3287
  • Thank you received: 480
Based on his recent trend, you could take Oracle's 5 units bets as his sure winners and bet against ;) :P

Sorry, Oracle, couldn't help it, I meant it in the purest fun and friendly way.

OK, seriously speaking, I think I'd like to see how it goes, therefore I'm in.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Experiment - Sure bets and Sure Losers 1 week 4 days ago #74167

  • Quill
  • Quill's Avatar
  • Online
  • Posts: 3287
  • Thank you received: 480
I remember I was running a thread about getting to R10,000 or R1,000 or something, don't remember the figure, starting with a R100 bet, but I did get to the final number more than once.

Then I had to move with work and other circumstances came against and I couldn't dedicate enough time for it any more.

Now that you mentioned it, I've become nostalgic and I might just start it again.
Canterbury certainly looks like the kind of bet to use for that.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Experiment - Sure bets and Sure Losers 1 week 4 days ago #74168

  • Murfin
  • Murfin's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Posts: 307
  • Thank you received: 75
Quill wrote:
Based on his recent trend, you could take Oracle's 5 units bets as his sure winners and bet against ;) :P

Sorry, Oracle, couldn't help it, I meant it in the purest fun and friendly way.

OK, seriously speaking, I think I'd like to see how it goes, therefore I'm in.

Thanks Quill, it will be great to have you as one of the "guinea pigs" as you are diverse in the sports/markets you bet on.
Jesus Saves
The administrator has disabled public write access.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Quill

Experiment - Sure bets and Sure Losers 1 week 4 days ago #74169

  • Murfin
  • Murfin's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Posts: 307
  • Thank you received: 75
Quill wrote:
I remember I was running a thread about getting to R10,000 or R1,000 or something, don't remember the figure, starting with a R100 bet, but I did get to the final number more than once.

Then I had to move with work and other circumstances came against and I couldn't dedicate enough time for it any more.

Now that you mentioned it, I've become nostalgic and I might just start it again.
Canterbury certainly looks like the kind of bet to use for that.

Yeah I remember following it closely and remember you had good outcomes with banking profits for restarts, would be great if you have time to start it up again
Jesus Saves
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Experiment - Sure bets and Sure Losers 1 week 4 days ago #74170

  • Murfin
  • Murfin's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Posts: 307
  • Thank you received: 75
Now that there are some replies let me tell you more about the rules I was thinking of for Category 1. Please give some rules that could help the experiment if you think of any good ones...
- Category 1 - Surebets

Start with an imaginery pot of R2000 and try get it to R4 000. Limitations are:
- can only bet on 2 or 3 way markets
- can only bet on odds of 1.3 and below
- can only win a max of R300 on any bet (e.g. at 1.3 odds could only wager R1000)
- cant use more than your imaginery pot (e.g. if you have R3000 in your pot you cant bet R4000 on bets)
- First person to R4000 imaginery pot wins the R500 prize.
- Need at least 10 members in this experiment to get a big enough sample size to test it
Jesus Saves
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Experiment - Sure bets and Sure Losers 1 week 4 days ago #74171

  • hanrick
  • hanrick's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Posts: 1945
  • Thank you received: 341
Will gladly assist. I only bet on rugby, but there are two markets I am horrible at, no matter how good the bet looks. Halftime/fulltime and halftime handicap. When I like the favourite in those markets and bet on it the bet loses 9 times out of 10.
Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
Last Edit: 1 week 4 days ago by hanrick.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Experiment - Sure bets and Sure Losers 1 week 4 days ago #74172

  • Murfin
  • Murfin's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Posts: 307
  • Thank you received: 75
hanrick wrote:
Will gladly assist. I only bet on rugby, but there is two markets I am horrible at, no matter how good the bet looks. Halftime/fulltime and halftime handicap. When I like the favourite in those markets and bet on it the bet loses 9 times out of 10.

Thats awesome Hanrick. I remember you mentioning that in the forums a while back and you giving it a try every now and then despite the fact. You might have a great way of winning by laying against your handicap and halftime/fulltime. The only problem is I will be able to lay against the halftime/fulltime market on Betfair but it wont benefit the forum as much as there are too many options to cover. Also laying aginst the higher odds of halftime/full time might not be so lucrative. But handicap recommendations would work really nicely for category 2.
Jesus Saves
Last Edit: 1 week 4 days ago by Murfin.
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Experiment - Sure bets and Sure Losers 1 week 4 days ago #74186

  • Murfin
  • Murfin's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Posts: 307
  • Thank you received: 75
Hi BG/Admins will you help with this experiment?
Jesus Saves
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Experiment - Sure bets and Sure Losers 1 week 4 days ago #74187

Hi Murfin, under work pressure and will look at this tonight
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Experiment - Sure bets and Sure Losers 1 week 3 days ago #74192

  • Murfin
  • Murfin's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Posts: 307
  • Thank you received: 75
Brent Graham wrote:
Hi Murfin, under work pressure and will look at this tonight

Sorry to hear BG. Hope the pressure eases soon.
Jesus Saves
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Experiment - Sure bets and Sure Losers 1 week 3 days ago #74199

  • mackem
  • mackem's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Posts: 5436
  • Thank you received: 586
Murfin, thanks for the suggestion, BG and I had a quick chat about this, we really appreciate your offer and the concept and we are thinking of lining something up in terms of a competition for forum members around the November rugby internationals.

We would like to put something up as GFTG to say thanks for all the posts over 2017 with a decent prize, perhaps a top end gift we could buy online and have shipped to the winners(s) regardless of whether they live in SA, UK, NZ, Aus etc...

We could propose a mechanic for the competition in advance and fine tune it with everyone's input,

Please leave it with us to get our heads around and we will put some sort of framework together. If we get it right in 2017 we can repeat annually,

Cheers
Chris
twitter: @goodforthegame
The administrator has disabled public write access.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Quill, Stoossy, Taylor

Experiment - Sure bets and Sure Losers 1 week 3 days ago #74202

  • Murfin
  • Murfin's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Posts: 307
  • Thank you received: 75
mackem wrote:
Murfin, thanks for the suggestion, BG and I had a quick chat about this, we really appreciate your offer and the concept and we are thinking of lining something up in terms of a competition for forum members around the November rugby internationals.

We would like to put something up as GFTG to say thanks for all the posts over 2017 with a decent prize, perhaps a top end gift we could buy online and have shipped to the winners(s) regardless of whether they live in SA, UK, NZ, Aus etc...

We could propose a mechanic for the competition in advance and fine tune it with everyone's input,

Please leave it with us to get our heads around and we will put some sort of framework together. If we get it right in 2017 we can repeat annually,

Cheers
Chris

Thanks Mackem that sounds great. Thanks to you and BG for discussing it and for the great site and ideas.
Jesus Saves
The administrator has disabled public write access.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Stoossy

Experiment - Sure bets and Sure Losers 1 week 1 day ago #74289

  • Greedyfly
  • Greedyfly's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Posts: 196
  • Thank you received: 43
I will assist with sure thing tennis bets..after tracking my performance over 2 years the sure thing was a heavy loser as opposed to my odds against bets...stopped it a while ago but will get back onto it for the purpose of this experiment...
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Experiment - Sure bets and Sure Losers 1 week 1 day ago #74323

  • Murfin
  • Murfin's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Posts: 307
  • Thank you received: 75
Thanks Greedyfly. Based on Mackems reply they are looking at making a competition so I got the feeling it wont be a good idea to make this a competition, but I can start a thread for this. I have a feeling going against sure bets and the tournaments/markets/days we weak on (even like friday night currie cup bets like Brent mentioned), will be profitable over time.
Jesus Saves
The administrator has disabled public write access.

Experiment - Sure bets and Sure Losers 1 week 23 hours ago #74335

LOL if you could include my Friday night spread bets you could make a fortune.

Sorry for my late response the weekend couldn't come quick enough

We are planning a comp but it will be of a different nature so if you want to run it as a competition and need me to facilitate anything drop me a mail This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
The administrator has disabled public write access.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Murfin

Experiment - Sure bets and Sure Losers 1 week 4 hours ago #74411

  • Murfin
  • Murfin's Avatar
  • Offline
  • Posts: 307
  • Thank you received: 75
Thanks BG. Quill is sending through a nice amount of bets/data so far for the sure bets experiment. I might need a competition for the sure losers experiment. If I dont get enough forum poster for the sure losers, will pop you an email of what I was thinking for the competition and we can take it from there.
Jesus Saves
The administrator has disabled public write access.
Time to create page: 0.282 seconds