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TOPIC: Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment

Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 4 weeks ago #74324

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Okay so as I mentioned in the other thread going to hold back on asking this a competition as BG , Mackem and the other admins are planning a competition of their own. But really feel this thread/experiment will be profitable over time. There are 2 categories for this thread/experiment
- Sure bets (The purpose is to make profit by laying against the sure bet) - Pleasure try keep the surebets on odds 1.3 or less. They have to be bankers. The lower odds the better.

- Sure losers (The purpose is to make profit by betting against the tips in this section as tipsters will be tipping on areas /tournaments / markets they are weak on and generally lose on).

Thanks for all the offer of help. Going to be interesting to lay Greedfly's surebets in tennis and Hanricks handicap bets. PS: I have lost buckets before on low odds in play cricket and tennis previously. I will try post those as well.

I have been running an experiment (using Betfair where its easy to lay at good odds), laying all low odds soccer matches (e.g. laying the clear favourite), and its turning out to be reasonably profitable, but I want to see profit over a month or more before I post anything to make sure it works.
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 4 weeks ago #74325

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I would like to kick off.

Surebet - NZ to beat SA at 1.11. Laying against it at 1.12.

Based of R100 bets. this lost so balance at -R12.
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 4 weeks ago #74326

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Murfin wrote:
I would like to kick off.

Surebet - NZ to beat SA at 1.11. Laying against it at 1.12.
What's 1.12?
When you say "laying against it" do you mean bet against NZ, or whoever is the sure bet?
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 4 weeks ago #74328

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Quill wrote:
Murfin wrote:
I would like to kick off.

Surebet - NZ to beat SA at 1.11. Laying against it at 1.12.
What's 1.12?
When you say "laying against it" do you mean bet against NZ, or whoever is the sure bet?

Yes, so the odds on NZ to beat SA are 1.11 and the lay is 1.12. e.g. to win R100 only costs R12 if you back SA double chance (or lay NZ).

For the experiment I will be laying (betting against the favourites/surebets) posted here for smalls to see if it can turn a decent profit.
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 4 weeks ago #74329

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Another sure bet - Leinster to beat Kings at 1.14.

I want to try lay (bet against Leinster winning) at 1.15. Currently its at 1.21. I Will lay anything around 1.15,1.16,117.

Layed Leinster at 1.15 - So loss of R15 (based off R100)
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 4 weeks ago #74334

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Bayern Munchen vs Mainz, Bayern @1.16
Roma vs Verona, Roma @1.17
Getafe vs Barcelona, Barcelona @1.26
PAOK vs Panatolikos, PAOK @1.18
Olympiakos vs Asterias, Oly @1.24
Sporting vs Tondela, Sporting @1.18

I'll use these in a few multiples today, which will include the rugby ones too.
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 4 weeks ago #74338

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Thanks quill, I manage to lay all of those at odds around 1.2-1.25. You got a nice range of soccer too :), portugese, spanish, greek leagues etc :) haha
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 4 weeks ago #74376

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Tottenham vs Swansea, Tottenham @1.22
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 4 weeks ago #74381

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thanks Quill will get on laying that. So far with the rugby down R27 (off R100 bets for each one). Lost R12 on laying NZ and R15 on laying Leinster.

Will some up the soccer after a few matches have passed.
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74409

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Quill wrote:
Bayern Munchen vs Mainz, Bayern @1.16
Roma vs Verona, Roma @1.17
Getafe vs Barcelona, Barcelona @1.26
PAOK vs Panatolikos, PAOK @1.18
Olympiakos vs Asterias, Oly @1.24
Sporting vs Tondela, Sporting @1.18

I'll use these in a few multiples today, which will include the rugby ones too.

Okay so our first 2 wins on this experiment. woohoo :) thanks Quill for the posts so far. Tottenham lay won and Olympiakos lay won. So thats R200 positive for this experiment.

Now for the losers :(. R27 from the rugby as mentioned in previous posts and R103 loss from the other soccer matches.

So showing a healthy profit of R70 after first lot of bets. I say healthy as this should cover losing on around 4 surebets e.g. we can lose the next 4 and still be even. Lets hope it keeps going well.
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74410

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Murfin wrote:
Quill wrote:
Bayern Munchen vs Mainz, Bayern @1.16
Roma vs Verona, Roma @1.17
Getafe vs Barcelona, Barcelona @1.26
PAOK vs Panatolikos, PAOK @1.18
Olympiakos vs Asterias, Oly @1.24
Sporting vs Tondela, Sporting @1.18

I'll use these in a few multiples today, which will include the rugby ones too.

Okay so our first 2 wins on this experiment. woohoo :) thanks Quill for the posts so far. Tottenham lay won and Olympiakos lay won. So thats R200 positive for this experiment.

Now for the losers :(. R27 from the rugby as mentioned in previous posts and R103 loss from the other soccer matches.

So showing a healthy profit of R97 after first lot of bets. I say healthy as this should cover losing on around 5 surebets e.g. we can lose the next 5 and still be even. Lets hope it keeps going well.

Just to explain how I calculate the losses for those following -->
An example.
Bayern Munchen vs Mainz, Bayern @1.16 ( I layed this @ 1.17)

1.17 * R100 = R17. Therefore the experiment loses R17. If the lay had won it would have been R100 profit. It basically works out at (depending on the odds) need to win one lay for very 5 or so surebets.
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74439

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Napoli vs Benevento, Napoli @1.12
PSG vs Lyon, PSG @1.17
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74443

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Thanks Quill. Have layed them. Lets cross fingers.
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74444

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Murfin wrote:
Thanks Quill. Have layed them. Lets cross fingers.
Not so sure about that, Murfin, not sure about that.
I want them to WIN as part of my multiple :lol:
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74447

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Quill wrote:
Murfin wrote:
Thanks Quill. Have layed them. Lets cross fingers.
Not so sure about that, Murfin, not sure about that.
I want them to WIN as part of my multiple :lol:

Haha sorry Quill :), I I meant rather lets cross fingers they win haha :whistle:
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74482

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I may add some matches at uncomfortable times due to time zones difference.
I'd say for the sake of the experiment, even if you didn't have a chance to play them, to still consider the bets. It's an experiment after all.

WTA Seoul singles and doubles

Cirstea vs Eguchi, Cirstea @1.11
Begu vs Wongteanchai, Begu @1.15
Bertens/Larsson vs Geuer/Wacanno, Bertens/Larsson @1.11
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74483

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Thanks quill. Agree with your good suggestion. Will keep updating the balances each day as I get a chance
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74496

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Quill wrote:
Napoli vs Benevento, Napoli @1.12
PSG vs Lyon, PSG @1.17

Both of these lost on the lay. -R31 loss. R70-31 = R39.
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74523

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Hi Murfin. I have been busy recently so just catching up now. I read this thread/theory which is interesting but I thought I need to point out that you are not operating on a level playing field. You may have noticed that a lot of us older fellows refuse to take 50/50 bets at anything under 9/10 for eg a coin toss or a rugby handicap. Odds of 9/10 - sorry 1.9 give the books a 5% return ie if you take a monkey throwing darts at a board on the rugby caps he is going to average ( over a period of time ) 50%. This would represent a loss of 5%. 50 ten unit losses - lose 500 - 50 ten unit wins returns 950 units. So a return of 950 units on an outlay of 1,000 units ie a 5% loss. So when someone like the Oracle says he made 3% on Super Rugby this means he beat the monkey :lol: .
On the exercise you are running the Books do NOT offer level playing field odds and here is a current example. Leicester play Liverpool tomorrow night in the EFL cup and WSB have

over 4.5 goals 5.0 under 4.5 goals 1.15 ( which are the kinda odds you are looking at ) What does this mean.

The 1.15 should arrive around six times ( 0.15 into 0.90 ) as opposed to the 5.0 arriving once. This means the punt over 100 bets should be 86 to 14. 86 losses total 860 units so for the books 5% the 14 wins should produce 810 units which gives you odds of 5.78 - but you are only being offered 5.0.

In my opinion your theory may flounder upon the rocks of the Books greed :woohoo:
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74527

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The Vann wrote:
Hi Murfin. I have been busy recently so just catching up now. I read this thread/theory which is interesting but I thought I need to point out that you are not operating on a level playing field. You may have noticed that a lot of us older fellows refuse to take 50/50 bets at anything under 9/10 for eg a coin toss or a rugby handicap. Odds of 9/10 - sorry 1.9 give the books a 5% return ie if you take a monkey throwing darts at a board on the rugby caps he is going to average ( over a period of time ) 50%. This would represent a loss of 5%. 50 ten unit losses - lose 500 - 50 ten unit wins returns 950 units. So a return of 950 units on an outlay of 1,000 units ie a 5% loss. So when someone like the Oracle says he made 3% on Super Rugby this means he beat the monkey :lol: .
On the exercise you are running the Books do NOT offer level playing field odds and here is a current example. Leicester play Liverpool tomorrow night in the EFL cup and WSB have

over 4.5 goals 5.0 under 4.5 goals 1.15 ( which are the kinda odds you are looking at ) What does this mean.

The 1.15 should arrive around six times ( 0.15 into 0.90 ) as opposed to the 5.0 arriving once. This means the punt over 100 bets should be 86 to 14. 86 losses total 860 units so for the books 5% the 14 wins should produce 810 units which gives you odds of 5.78 - but you are only being offered 5.0.

In my opinion your theory may flounder upon the rocks of the Books greed :woohoo:

Let me rephrase that - The books are exploiting the naivety of punters in the same way USA casino's have zero and double zero on their roulette wheels.
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74529

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Barcelona vs Eibar, Barcelona @1.13.
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74532

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England EFL Cup - West Ham v Bolton
Extra Time - No @ 1.15
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74545

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Thanks Vann for your take on this experiment and for your tip. Short explanation - if surebets dont work (a couple of us if not most of us have tried it), then there is a chance the opposite might work (or might not work) hence the experiment.

Longer version would look at each variable and explain that these could influence the experiment to be a success or failure about the many variables, e.g. success of members when selecting sure bets, bookies underestimating or overestimating shortened odds, betxchanges vs bookies when laying surebets etc.

But yeah you very well may be right e.g. experiment might not work. Worth a shot though :).
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74546

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Quill wrote:
I may add some matches at uncomfortable times due to time zones difference.
I'd say for the sake of the experiment, even if you didn't have a chance to play them, to still consider the bets. It's an experiment after all.

WTA Seoul singles and doubles

Cirstea vs Eguchi, Cirstea @1.11
Begu vs Wongteanchai, Begu @1.15
Bertens/Larsson vs Geuer/Wacanno, Bertens/Larsson @1.11

Balance R39 - 39 = R0
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74568

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WTA Tokyo

Chan/Chan vs Nara/Ozaki, Chan/Chan @1.16
Linette vs Pliskova, Pliskova @1.15
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74593

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Not sure if you still need any of these Murfin but feel free to tell me to bugger off if not. I have been married for decades and take it well :lol:

England EFL Cup
Everton v Sunderland over 1.5 goals @ 1.18

SA Premier League
Maritzburg v Chiefs under 3.5 goals @ 1.14
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74594

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Yes please, thanks Vann, want to continue the experiment at least a couple of weeks.
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74595

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R0 balance minus -R30. you guys are too good haha.
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74693

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some sure bets

- NZ to beat argies at 0.06
- Cantab to beat Northharbour 1.22
- Bayern to beat Wolfburg 1.11
- leinster to beat cheetahs 1.14
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74694

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Balance - R30 - R19 = -R48
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74695

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Balance - R30 - R19 = -R49
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74718

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Here's a little Saturday EPL for your exercise

West Ham v Spurs total bookings over 2.5 @ 1.12 ( Yellow=1 Red=2 )
Man City v Palace Man City win @ 1.14
Southampton v Man Utd Over 1.5 goals in total @ 1.30
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74766

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balance -R49 - R15 + R100 - R23 + R100

Balance = +R113
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Last Edit: 2 months 3 weeks ago by Murfin.
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74782

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Man City vs Palace, City @1.14
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74785

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Alaves vs Real Madrid, Real @1.17
Girona vs Barcelona, Barcelona @1.24
Benfica vs Ferreira, Benfica @1.18
Spal vs Napoli, Napoli @1.22
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 3 weeks ago #74802

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The Vann wrote:
Here's a little Saturday EPL for your exercise

West Ham v Spurs total bookings over 2.5 @ 1.12 ( Yellow=1 Red=2 )
Man City v Palace Man City win @ 1.14
Southampton v Man Utd Over 1.5 goals in total @ 1.30

I spot a losing bet in there :lol:
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 2 weeks ago #74827

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Greek Super League

PAOK vs Gianina, PAOK @1.268
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 2 weeks ago #74842

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Geez Quill you in some red hot form with the surebet. eating all the balance away LOL :woohoo:

balance = R113 - 27 -23-19-25-18 = R1
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 2 weeks ago #74843

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now for Vann's, thank for the tips Quill and Vann. R1 - 13 + R100. Vann / Quill I wont count the Man City vs Palace game twice if thats alright?

Balance = R88
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 2 weeks ago #74850

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Murfin wrote:
Quill I wont count the Man City vs Palace game twice if thats alright?

Balance = R88
But Murf, please do so, why not! :lol:

So now I have R88 to wipe off? :lol:
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 2 weeks ago #74852

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Quill wrote:
Murfin wrote:
Quill I wont count the Man City vs Palace game twice if thats alright?

Balance = R88
But Murf, please do so, why not! :lol:

So now I have R88 to wipe off? :lol:

Noooooooo :). I think its time you start your thread again, you in some red hot form. Maybe just for you we do the surebets hahahaha :).
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 2 weeks ago #74857

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EPL Arsenal v WBA
Match bookings over 2.5 @ 1.30

UEFA Champions League
Sevilla v Maribor Sevilla win @ 1.16
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WTA Wuhan
Chan/Hingis vs Atawo/Jurak, Chan/Hingis @1.14
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 2 weeks ago #74885

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UEFA Champions League

Besiktas v Leipzig Total goals over 1.5 @ 1.20
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 2 weeks ago #74892

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The Vann wrote:
EPL Arsenal v WBA
Match bookings over 2.5 @ 1.30

UEFA Champions League
Sevilla v Maribor Sevilla win @ 1.16

Thanks for these tips Vann. Where do I see the result for bookings for a match?
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 2 weeks ago #74894

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Murfin wrote:
The Vann wrote:
EPL Arsenal v WBA
Match bookings over 2.5 @ 1.30

UEFA Champions League
Sevilla v Maribor Sevilla win @ 1.16

Thanks for these tips Vann. Where do I see the result for bookings for a match?

Match bookings finished at 5.0. Easiest place is Premier League web site - results - match stats
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 2 weeks ago #74896

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Murfin wrote:
The Vann wrote:
EPL Arsenal v WBA
Match bookings over 2.5 @ 1.30

UEFA Champions League
Sevilla v Maribor Sevilla win @ 1.16

Thanks for these tips Vann. Where do I see the result for bookings for a match?

You could also use most live scoring websites - personally I use Flashscore for all my sports. Most reliable and up to date.

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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 2 weeks ago #74897

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Jip... I use flashscore too.
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 2 weeks ago #74900

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Napoli @1.16

Sevilla @1.15

Man City @1.20
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Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment 2 months 2 weeks ago #74913

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Juventus @1.13
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