Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment

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10 months 4 weeks ago - 10 months 4 weeks ago #1 by Murfin
Okay so as I mentioned in the other thread going to hold back on asking this a competition as BG , Mackem and the other admins are planning a competition of their own. But really feel this thread/experiment will be profitable over time. There are 2 categories for this thread/experiment
- Sure bets (The purpose is to make profit by laying against the sure bet) - Pleasure try keep the surebets on odds 1.3 or less. They have to be bankers. The lower odds the better.

- Sure losers (The purpose is to make profit by betting against the tips in this section as tipsters will be tipping on areas /tournaments / markets they are weak on and generally lose on).

Thanks for all the offer of help. Going to be interesting to lay Greedfly's surebets in tennis and Hanricks handicap bets. PS: I have lost buckets before on low odds in play cricket and tennis previously. I will try post those as well.

I have been running an experiment (using Betfair where its easy to lay at good odds), laying all low odds soccer matches (e.g. laying the clear favourite), and its turning out to be reasonably profitable, but I want to see profit over a month or more before I post anything to make sure it works.

Jesus Saves
Last edit: 10 months 4 weeks ago by Murfin.

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10 months 4 weeks ago - 10 months 4 weeks ago #2 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
I would like to kick off.

Surebet - NZ to beat SA at 1.11. Laying against it at 1.12.

Based of R100 bets. this lost so balance at -R12.

Jesus Saves
Last edit: 10 months 4 weeks ago by Murfin.

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10 months 4 weeks ago #3 by Quill
Replied by Quill on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment

Murfin wrote: I would like to kick off.

Surebet - NZ to beat SA at 1.11. Laying against it at 1.12.

What's 1.12?
When you say "laying against it" do you mean bet against NZ, or whoever is the sure bet?

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10 months 4 weeks ago - 10 months 4 weeks ago #4 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment

Quill wrote:

Murfin wrote: I would like to kick off.

Surebet - NZ to beat SA at 1.11. Laying against it at 1.12.

What's 1.12?
When you say "laying against it" do you mean bet against NZ, or whoever is the sure bet?


Yes, so the odds on NZ to beat SA are 1.11 and the lay is 1.12. e.g. to win R100 only costs R12 if you back SA double chance (or lay NZ).

For the experiment I will be laying (betting against the favourites/surebets) posted here for smalls to see if it can turn a decent profit.

Jesus Saves
Last edit: 10 months 4 weeks ago by Murfin.

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10 months 4 weeks ago - 10 months 4 weeks ago #5 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
Another sure bet - Leinster to beat Kings at 1.14.

I want to try lay (bet against Leinster winning) at 1.15. Currently its at 1.21. I Will lay anything around 1.15,1.16,117.

Layed Leinster at 1.15 - So loss of R15 (based off R100)

Jesus Saves
Last edit: 10 months 4 weeks ago by Murfin.

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10 months 4 weeks ago #6 by Quill
Replied by Quill on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
Bayern Munchen vs Mainz, Bayern @1.16
Roma vs Verona, Roma @1.17
Getafe vs Barcelona, Barcelona @1.26
PAOK vs Panatolikos, PAOK @1.18
Olympiakos vs Asterias, Oly @1.24
Sporting vs Tondela, Sporting @1.18

I'll use these in a few multiples today, which will include the rugby ones too.
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10 months 4 weeks ago #7 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
Thanks quill, I manage to lay all of those at odds around 1.2-1.25. You got a nice range of soccer too :), portugese, spanish, greek leagues etc :) haha

Jesus Saves
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10 months 4 weeks ago #8 by Quill
Replied by Quill on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
Tottenham vs Swansea, Tottenham @1.22

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10 months 4 weeks ago #9 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
thanks Quill will get on laying that. So far with the rugby down R27 (off R100 bets for each one). Lost R12 on laying NZ and R15 on laying Leinster.

Will some up the soccer after a few matches have passed.

Jesus Saves

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10 months 4 weeks ago - 10 months 4 weeks ago #10 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment

Quill wrote: Bayern Munchen vs Mainz, Bayern @1.16
Roma vs Verona, Roma @1.17
Getafe vs Barcelona, Barcelona @1.26
PAOK vs Panatolikos, PAOK @1.18
Olympiakos vs Asterias, Oly @1.24
Sporting vs Tondela, Sporting @1.18

I'll use these in a few multiples today, which will include the rugby ones too.


Okay so our first 2 wins on this experiment. woohoo :) thanks Quill for the posts so far. Tottenham lay won and Olympiakos lay won. So thats R200 positive for this experiment.

Now for the losers :(. R27 from the rugby as mentioned in previous posts and R103 loss from the other soccer matches.

So showing a healthy profit of R70 after first lot of bets. I say healthy as this should cover losing on around 4 surebets e.g. we can lose the next 4 and still be even. Lets hope it keeps going well.

Jesus Saves
Last edit: 10 months 4 weeks ago by Murfin.

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10 months 4 weeks ago #11 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment

Murfin wrote:

Quill wrote: Bayern Munchen vs Mainz, Bayern @1.16
Roma vs Verona, Roma @1.17
Getafe vs Barcelona, Barcelona @1.26
PAOK vs Panatolikos, PAOK @1.18
Olympiakos vs Asterias, Oly @1.24
Sporting vs Tondela, Sporting @1.18

I'll use these in a few multiples today, which will include the rugby ones too.


Okay so our first 2 wins on this experiment. woohoo :) thanks Quill for the posts so far. Tottenham lay won and Olympiakos lay won. So thats R200 positive for this experiment.

Now for the losers :(. R27 from the rugby as mentioned in previous posts and R103 loss from the other soccer matches.

So showing a healthy profit of R97 after first lot of bets. I say healthy as this should cover losing on around 5 surebets e.g. we can lose the next 5 and still be even. Lets hope it keeps going well.


Just to explain how I calculate the losses for those following -->
An example.
Bayern Munchen vs Mainz, Bayern @1.16 ( I layed this @ 1.17)

1.17 * R100 = R17. Therefore the experiment loses R17. If the lay had won it would have been R100 profit. It basically works out at (depending on the odds) need to win one lay for very 5 or so surebets.

Jesus Saves

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10 months 4 weeks ago #12 by Quill
Replied by Quill on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
Napoli vs Benevento, Napoli @1.12
PSG vs Lyon, PSG @1.17
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10 months 4 weeks ago #13 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
Thanks Quill. Have layed them. Lets cross fingers.

Jesus Saves

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10 months 4 weeks ago #14 by Quill
Replied by Quill on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment

Murfin wrote: Thanks Quill. Have layed them. Lets cross fingers.

Not so sure about that, Murfin, not sure about that.
I want them to WIN as part of my multiple :lol:

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10 months 4 weeks ago #15 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment

Quill wrote:

Murfin wrote: Thanks Quill. Have layed them. Lets cross fingers.

Not so sure about that, Murfin, not sure about that.
I want them to WIN as part of my multiple :lol:


Haha sorry Quill :), I I meant rather lets cross fingers they win haha :whistle:

Jesus Saves

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10 months 4 weeks ago #16 by Quill
Replied by Quill on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
I may add some matches at uncomfortable times due to time zones difference.
I'd say for the sake of the experiment, even if you didn't have a chance to play them, to still consider the bets. It's an experiment after all.

WTA Seoul singles and doubles

Cirstea vs Eguchi, Cirstea @1.11
Begu vs Wongteanchai, Begu @1.15
Bertens/Larsson vs Geuer/Wacanno, Bertens/Larsson @1.11
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10 months 4 weeks ago #17 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
Thanks quill. Agree with your good suggestion. Will keep updating the balances each day as I get a chance

Jesus Saves
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10 months 3 weeks ago - 10 months 3 weeks ago #18 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment

Quill wrote: Napoli vs Benevento, Napoli @1.12
PSG vs Lyon, PSG @1.17


Both of these lost on the lay. -R31 loss. R70-31 = R39.

Jesus Saves
Last edit: 10 months 3 weeks ago by Murfin.

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10 months 3 weeks ago #19 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
Hi Murfin. I have been busy recently so just catching up now. I read this thread/theory which is interesting but I thought I need to point out that you are not operating on a level playing field. You may have noticed that a lot of us older fellows refuse to take 50/50 bets at anything under 9/10 for eg a coin toss or a rugby handicap. Odds of 9/10 - sorry 1.9 give the books a 5% return ie if you take a monkey throwing darts at a board on the rugby caps he is going to average ( over a period of time ) 50%. This would represent a loss of 5%. 50 ten unit losses - lose 500 - 50 ten unit wins returns 950 units. So a return of 950 units on an outlay of 1,000 units ie a 5% loss. So when someone like the Oracle says he made 3% on Super Rugby this means he beat the monkey :lol: .
On the exercise you are running the Books do NOT offer level playing field odds and here is a current example. Leicester play Liverpool tomorrow night in the EFL cup and WSB have

over 4.5 goals 5.0 under 4.5 goals 1.15 ( which are the kinda odds you are looking at ) What does this mean.

The 1.15 should arrive around six times ( 0.15 into 0.90 ) as opposed to the 5.0 arriving once. This means the punt over 100 bets should be 86 to 14. 86 losses total 860 units so for the books 5% the 14 wins should produce 810 units which gives you odds of 5.78 - but you are only being offered 5.0.

In my opinion your theory may flounder upon the rocks of the Books greed :woohoo:

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10 months 3 weeks ago #20 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment

The Vann wrote: Hi Murfin. I have been busy recently so just catching up now. I read this thread/theory which is interesting but I thought I need to point out that you are not operating on a level playing field. You may have noticed that a lot of us older fellows refuse to take 50/50 bets at anything under 9/10 for eg a coin toss or a rugby handicap. Odds of 9/10 - sorry 1.9 give the books a 5% return ie if you take a monkey throwing darts at a board on the rugby caps he is going to average ( over a period of time ) 50%. This would represent a loss of 5%. 50 ten unit losses - lose 500 - 50 ten unit wins returns 950 units. So a return of 950 units on an outlay of 1,000 units ie a 5% loss. So when someone like the Oracle says he made 3% on Super Rugby this means he beat the monkey :lol: .
On the exercise you are running the Books do NOT offer level playing field odds and here is a current example. Leicester play Liverpool tomorrow night in the EFL cup and WSB have

over 4.5 goals 5.0 under 4.5 goals 1.15 ( which are the kinda odds you are looking at ) What does this mean.

The 1.15 should arrive around six times ( 0.15 into 0.90 ) as opposed to the 5.0 arriving once. This means the punt over 100 bets should be 86 to 14. 86 losses total 860 units so for the books 5% the 14 wins should produce 810 units which gives you odds of 5.78 - but you are only being offered 5.0.

In my opinion your theory may flounder upon the rocks of the Books greed :woohoo:


Let me rephrase that - The books are exploiting the naivety of punters in the same way USA casino's have zero and double zero on their roulette wheels.

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10 months 3 weeks ago #21 by Quill
Replied by Quill on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
Barcelona vs Eibar, Barcelona @1.13.
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10 months 3 weeks ago #22 by The Vann
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England EFL Cup - West Ham v Bolton
Extra Time - No @ 1.15
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10 months 3 weeks ago #23 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
Thanks Vann for your take on this experiment and for your tip. Short explanation - if surebets dont work (a couple of us if not most of us have tried it), then there is a chance the opposite might work (or might not work) hence the experiment.

Longer version would look at each variable and explain that these could influence the experiment to be a success or failure about the many variables, e.g. success of members when selecting sure bets, bookies underestimating or overestimating shortened odds, betxchanges vs bookies when laying surebets etc.

But yeah you very well may be right e.g. experiment might not work. Worth a shot though :).

Jesus Saves
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10 months 3 weeks ago #24 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment

Quill wrote: I may add some matches at uncomfortable times due to time zones difference.
I'd say for the sake of the experiment, even if you didn't have a chance to play them, to still consider the bets. It's an experiment after all.

WTA Seoul singles and doubles

Cirstea vs Eguchi, Cirstea @1.11
Begu vs Wongteanchai, Begu @1.15
Bertens/Larsson vs Geuer/Wacanno, Bertens/Larsson @1.11


Balance R39 - 39 = R0

Jesus Saves

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10 months 3 weeks ago #25 by Quill
Replied by Quill on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
WTA Tokyo

Chan/Chan vs Nara/Ozaki, Chan/Chan @1.16
Linette vs Pliskova, Pliskova @1.15

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10 months 3 weeks ago #26 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
Not sure if you still need any of these Murfin but feel free to tell me to bugger off if not. I have been married for decades and take it well :lol:

England EFL Cup
Everton v Sunderland over 1.5 goals @ 1.18

SA Premier League
Maritzburg v Chiefs under 3.5 goals @ 1.14

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10 months 3 weeks ago #27 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
Yes please, thanks Vann, want to continue the experiment at least a couple of weeks.

Jesus Saves

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10 months 3 weeks ago #28 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
R0 balance minus -R30. you guys are too good haha.

Jesus Saves

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10 months 3 weeks ago #29 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
some sure bets

- NZ to beat argies at 0.06
- Cantab to beat Northharbour 1.22
- Bayern to beat Wolfburg 1.11
- leinster to beat cheetahs 1.14

Jesus Saves

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10 months 3 weeks ago #30 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
Balance - R30 - R19 = -R48

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10 months 3 weeks ago #31 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
Balance - R30 - R19 = -R49

Jesus Saves

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10 months 3 weeks ago #32 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
Here's a little Saturday EPL for your exercise

West Ham v Spurs total bookings over 2.5 @ 1.12 ( Yellow=1 Red=2 )
Man City v Palace Man City win @ 1.14
Southampton v Man Utd Over 1.5 goals in total @ 1.30
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10 months 3 weeks ago - 10 months 3 weeks ago #33 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
balance -R49 - R15 + R100 - R23 + R100

Balance = +R113

Jesus Saves
Last edit: 10 months 3 weeks ago by Murfin.

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10 months 3 weeks ago #34 by Quill
Replied by Quill on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
Man City vs Palace, City @1.14
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10 months 3 weeks ago #35 by Quill
Replied by Quill on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
Alaves vs Real Madrid, Real @1.17
Girona vs Barcelona, Barcelona @1.24
Benfica vs Ferreira, Benfica @1.18
Spal vs Napoli, Napoli @1.22
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10 months 3 weeks ago #36 by The Vann
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The Vann wrote: Here's a little Saturday EPL for your exercise

West Ham v Spurs total bookings over 2.5 @ 1.12 ( Yellow=1 Red=2 )
Man City v Palace Man City win @ 1.14
Southampton v Man Utd Over 1.5 goals in total @ 1.30


I spot a losing bet in there :lol:
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10 months 3 weeks ago #37 by Quill
Replied by Quill on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
Greek Super League

PAOK vs Gianina, PAOK @1.268
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10 months 2 weeks ago #38 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
Geez Quill you in some red hot form with the surebet. eating all the balance away LOL :woohoo:

balance = R113 - 27 -23-19-25-18 = R1

Jesus Saves
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10 months 2 weeks ago #39 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
now for Vann's, thank for the tips Quill and Vann. R1 - 13 + R100. Vann / Quill I wont count the Man City vs Palace game twice if thats alright?

Balance = R88

Jesus Saves

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10 months 2 weeks ago #40 by Quill
Replied by Quill on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment

Murfin wrote: Quill I wont count the Man City vs Palace game twice if thats alright?

Balance = R88

But Murf, please do so, why not! :lol:

So now I have R88 to wipe off? :lol:

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10 months 2 weeks ago #41 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment

Quill wrote:

Murfin wrote: Quill I wont count the Man City vs Palace game twice if thats alright?

Balance = R88

But Murf, please do so, why not! :lol:

So now I have R88 to wipe off? :lol:


Noooooooo :). I think its time you start your thread again, you in some red hot form. Maybe just for you we do the surebets hahahaha :).

Jesus Saves

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10 months 2 weeks ago #42 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
EPL Arsenal v WBA
Match bookings over 2.5 @ 1.30

UEFA Champions League
Sevilla v Maribor Sevilla win @ 1.16
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10 months 2 weeks ago #43 by Quill
Replied by Quill on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
WTA Wuhan
Chan/Hingis vs Atawo/Jurak, Chan/Hingis @1.14

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10 months 2 weeks ago #44 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
UEFA Champions League

Besiktas v Leipzig Total goals over 1.5 @ 1.20

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10 months 2 weeks ago #45 by Murfin
Replied by Murfin on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment

The Vann wrote: EPL Arsenal v WBA
Match bookings over 2.5 @ 1.30

UEFA Champions League
Sevilla v Maribor Sevilla win @ 1.16


Thanks for these tips Vann. Where do I see the result for bookings for a match?

Jesus Saves

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10 months 2 weeks ago #46 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment

Murfin wrote:

The Vann wrote: EPL Arsenal v WBA
Match bookings over 2.5 @ 1.30

UEFA Champions League
Sevilla v Maribor Sevilla win @ 1.16


Thanks for these tips Vann. Where do I see the result for bookings for a match?


Match bookings finished at 5.0. Easiest place is Premier League web site - results - match stats
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10 months 2 weeks ago #47 by Matador
Replied by Matador on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment

Murfin wrote:

The Vann wrote: EPL Arsenal v WBA
Match bookings over 2.5 @ 1.30

UEFA Champions League
Sevilla v Maribor Sevilla win @ 1.16


Thanks for these tips Vann. Where do I see the result for bookings for a match?


You could also use most live scoring websites - personally I use Flashscore for all my sports. Most reliable and up to date.
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10 months 2 weeks ago #48 by Quill
Replied by Quill on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
Jip... I use flashscore too.

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10 months 2 weeks ago #49 by Quill
Replied by Quill on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
Napoli @1.16

Sevilla @1.15

Man City @1.20

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10 months 2 weeks ago #50 by Quill
Replied by Quill on topic Sure Bets and Sure losers - Experiment
Juventus @1.13

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