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TOPIC: Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups

Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 4 days ago #76959

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Ok boys, Dubai was a cracker.
Lets keep this going!!!

Learnings from the weekend: Blitzbokke are superb, well coached, perfect balance of speed, power and experience. The only side that can compete with them are Fiji and it looks like they should meet in the final this weekend.

United States are rubbish without Baker, NZ are a team in transition and Australia are on the up. Spain and Uganda were definitely better than the handicaps suggested. Russia are awful without their main man from last season and think they are in for a tough weekend in CPT.

Games 1-8
Samoa vs Canada
Fiji vs Wales
Scotland vs Argentina
England vs Uganda
Australia vs Spain
New Zealand vs United States
Kenya vs France
South Africa vs Russia
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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Cape Town 7s - 9/10 Dec 1 week 4 days ago #76960

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I took South Africa outright @1.80.
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Cape Town 7s - 9/10 Dec 1 week 4 days ago #76961

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RuggaBugga wrote:
Ok boys, Dubai was a cracker.
Lets keep this going!!!

Learnings from the weekend: Blitzbokke are superb, well coached, perfect balance of speed, power and experience. The only side that can compete with them are Fiji and it looks like they should meet in the final this weekend.

United States are rubbish without Baker, NZ are a team in transition and Australia are on the up. Spain and Uganda were definitely better than the handicaps suggested. Russia are awful without their main man from last season and think they are in for a tough weekend in CPT.

Games 1-8
Samoa vs Canada
Fiji vs Wales
Scotland vs Argentina
England vs Uganda
Australia vs Spain
New Zealand vs United States
Kenya vs France
South Africa vs Russia

RB agree with all your statements I think we can add Samoa as a team on the up too, with Gordon Tietjens finally getting his first full season with the team.
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Cape Town 7s - 9/10 Dec 1 week 3 days ago #76963

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Agree Matador - Samoa were impressive at times especially against the Blitzies. Perez is a great player and you can see Titch's style coming through. Think they will beat Canada in game 1.

Scotland and Argies were also impressive so interested to see the cap on that match

Haven't seen anything on Perry Baker being available for USA, if not then all over NZ first up!

Then targeting SA on the cap against Russia.

Last result between sides
2016 SA Sevens - SA 41 Russia 0
Average Score - SA 36 Russia 5

Russia results in Dubai:
Lost 50-7 vs Fiji
Lost 47-0 vs Australia
Lost 29-5 vs Wales
Lost 31-0 vs Spain
Lost 17-12 vs Uganda

SA will be so pumped to win the CPT 7's after losing the Final against England last year and think they will come out with a monster opening performance!
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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Cape Town 7s - 9/10 Dec 1 week 3 days ago #76964

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Early caps out by Sportingbet:

Samoa -2.5 v Canada
Fiji -16.5 v Wales
Scotland +3.5 v Argentina
England -25.5 v Uganda
Australia -14.5 v Spain
New Zealand -7.5 v USA
Kenya +2.5 v France
South Africa -27.5 v Russia
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Cape Town 7s - 9/10 Dec 1 week 3 days ago #76965

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Samoa -2.5 v Canada
New Zealand -7.5 v USA
South Africa -27.5 v Russia

Crackers!

Samoa are ranked 13th on the series and we are benefiting from that!
Samoa beat Argentina, USA, Scotland in Dubai (Lost to SA, Aus and New Zealand)
Canada beat USA (AET), Uganda in Dubai (Lost to SA, France and Kenya)

Samoa are on the upward curve, Canada not so much ...

Dont rate this United States side at all whilst the NZ side has game changers in Curry, Webber and Kurt Baker.

Then SA will beat Russia by 4 converted tries with ease - cap should be 35.5
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Cape Town 7s - 9/10 Dec 1 week 3 days ago #76966

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I can’t believe SB in the UK does not propose those odds!!
I don’t understand what happened – received an email for new terms and conditions followed by the website and app unavailable for more than 24h and since its back, no more additional handicaps, no more team points, no more alternative total point…. 10 bets max per rugby union game and not a single one on rugby 7s
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Cape Town 7s - 9/10 Dec 1 week 3 days ago #76968

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Bradie I've just logged on to sporting bet, and the handicaps are now there? Must have changed since you posted :D
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Cape Town 7s - 9/10 Dec 1 week 3 days ago #76969

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Rugga followed you on all three, with SA my largest play

Sportingbet had Samoa to win at 17/20 which was generous and took that rather than the cap
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Cape Town 7s - 9/10 Dec 1 week 3 days ago #76970

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Northerner wrote:
Bradie I've just logged on to sporting bet, and the handicaps are now there? Must have changed since you posted :D

Indeed!!! Thanks Northerner!!
Thank god for that!!
Hope the alternative H and point total/team will also be available this week end for the H cup
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Cape Town 7s - 9/10 Dec 1 week 3 days ago #76971

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Northerner wrote:
Rugga followed you on all three, with SA my largest play

Sportingbet had Samoa to win at 17/20 which was generous and took that rather than the cap

That's a better call Northerner! Esp with some books going 17/20 on the caps this weekend!
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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Cape Town 7s - 9/10 Dec 1 week 3 days ago #76973

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Cape Town outrights:
Samoa 48/1
Canada 174/1

Surely if its a choice game between the two they should be similar odds for the outright win :dry: :whistle: ;)
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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Cape Town 7s - 9/10 Dec 1 week 3 days ago #76974

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No betting out yet from the unts at Hollywood and Betxchange! I recon that Kenya will beat France.
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Cape Town 7s - 9/10 Dec 1 week 3 days ago #76975

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Stark wrote:
No betting out yet from the unts at Hollywood and Betxchange! I recon that Kenya will beat France.

The chimps of East Africa impressed me in Dubai!
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Cape Town 7s - 9/10 Dec 1 week 3 days ago #76976

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*champs
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Cape Town 7s - 9/10 Dec 1 week 3 days ago #76977

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Stark wrote:
No betting out yet from the unts at Hollywood and Betxchange! I recon that Kenya will beat France.

I m quite surprised that Kenya is dog against France so i ve been taking a bit of Kenya +2.5 @1.80
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Cape Town 7s - 9/10 Dec 1 week 3 days ago #76978

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bradie82 wrote:
Stark wrote:
No betting out yet from the unts at Hollywood and Betxchange! I recon that Kenya will beat France.

I m quite surprised that Kenya is dog against France so i ve been taking a bit of Kenya +2.5 @1.80

Again the betting makes no sense.
Winner of Pool A betting
SA: 1/10
Kenya: 6/1
France: 8/1
Russia: 90/1

How are France favourites for a match between the sides then :lol: :lol: :lol:

Last 4 results
Paris 2017 - France 20 Kenya 14
Hong Kong 2017 - Kenya 29 France 12
USA 2017 - Kenya 14 France 7
SA 2016 - Kenya 33 France 14

France only win in last 4 was in Paris!
Kenya always up their game in SA!
Kenya +2.5 is golden
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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Cape Town 7s - 9/10 Dec 1 week 3 days ago #76981

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Going off topic a bit but here is Couch's blog, Post Match Scuffle, wrapping up the international rugby year
twitter: @goodforthegame
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Cape Town 7s - 9/10 Dec 1 week 3 days ago #76984

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As there is no thread for the European Cup so far, just a quick FYI : Clermont lost its third fly-half of the season and will be without any experienced one against Saracens this week end.
So either a scrum half will play 10 and it could be Parra with a Trussardi (a youngster) at 9, either it will be Laverhne (a youngster) but he has no experience and the 2 top 14 he played, it was going too fast for him, either it will be Spedding (Full Back but played fly half 6 years ago for few games with Brive) or finally Toeava (Utility back) but to be honest I can see Clermont suffering despite the Sarries having lost 5 games in a row (3 in Aviva, 2 in LVM Cup).
I am waiting for the handicap but anything below 10 is good to be taken IMO.
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Cape Town 7s - 9/10 Dec 1 week 2 days ago #76987

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Just some first thoughts on the Champions Game this week end

Glasgow vs Montpellier : Glasgow is eliminated and Montpellier not far from it so without any starting line, hard to take any bet but if I had to make a choice, I would go for the Glasgow -6

Scarlets vs Treviso : Scarlets to win with the bonus try – they are 6 points behind Bath and Toulon and if any of those 2 loses with no bonus point, Scarlets could be back 1 point behind

Toulon vs Bath : Must win for Toulon at home but hard to be confident with what they have shown recently – still believe they will win but would go for a 1-12 as it would be the best value

Castres vs Racing : Castres in on fire with a massive win in Toulouse last week end but as they are almost out, will they bring the big guns for that game. Racing has been hot and cold recently and I cannot see them winning in Castres. Castres ML @ 1,50 seems like a decent bet but without starting line, will stay away for the moment

Saints vs Ospreys : Once again two teams more or less out but the double confrontation between Sarries and Clermont could give hope to the winner. Saints to win with bonus try and over in the game if the forecast is good

Munster vs Leicester : I cannot only see an Irish win at Thomond Park and the bonus try won’t be far I reckon – will look at the forecast but over tries Munster would be my bet

Harlequin vs Ulster : Quins should win this one to stay alive in this group but will they play with the best squad available? Waiting for the forecast and teams to jump on the over

La Rochelle vs Wasps : One of the game of the week end! La Rochelle for its first Champions Cup has been impressive so far while Wasps are clearly disappointing this season. Win for la Rochelle and over are my first thoughts

Saracens vs Clermont : That could have been the game of the week end but with the number of injured players at fly half and scrum half, Clermont is clearly far from its top squad and the way they played so far this season is far from the expectation you can have with this team. Saracens -9 would be my call, bonus try Saracens and over tries/points game.

Exeter vs Leinster : THE GAME OF THE WEEK END and I cannot wait to watch this one!! 2 of the best teams in Europe! Unfortunately so far the forecast is heavy rain which will impact the game. Hard to predict a winner as both teams have been impressive but home advantage for Exeter. Moreover, if the forecast gets better, I can see a big over but I keep in mind that Sunday late game are not very good for over
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 2 days ago #76991

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Gents, I also think Samoa should give Canada a few. Why has the betting not moved an inch though :huh:
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 2 days ago #76992

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shaft wrote:
Gents, I also think Samoa should give Canada a few. Why has the betting not moved an inch though :huh:

I have taken more of Samoa at 17/20. Its a crazy opening quote! Only reason it hasn't shifted is because SB are the only bookies to price up.

On the outrights on SB
Samoa 67/1
Canada 67/1

On the outrights on BetX
Samoa 33/1
Canada 125/1

On the outrights on Bet365
Samoa 25/1
Canada 125/1

So SportingBet have put Canada on the same level as Samoa which is just crazy! Bet365 and BetX have them further apart in the outrights which makes more sense. Samoa have got pace and power while Canada offer very little in attack and dont have a flair player!
Samoa lost out to Australia in the Plate final while Canada got dumped out of the bowl by France.

Guaranteed that the other bookies open at Samoa -7ish

Samoa 17/20 is golden!!!
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
Last Edit: 1 week 2 days ago by RuggaBugga.
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 2 days ago #76993

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Perry Baker is OUT of the CPT Sevens!

USA baked!

NZ -7.5 vs United States game 1 is a beauty! ;) ;) ;)
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
Last Edit: 1 week 2 days ago by RuggaBugga.
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 2 days ago #76994

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Baker out and replaced by Kevon Williams who despite a massive gap in experience is a very interesting player and I will keep an eye on him to see the progress made
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 1 day ago #76995

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WSB out with their caps
Samoa -5.5 vs Canada
Fiji -18.5 vs Wales
Scotland +1.5 vs Argies
England -25.5 vs Uganda
Australia -14.5 vs Spain
NZ -9.5 vs USA
Kenya +2.5 vs France
SA -30.5 vs Russia
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 1 day ago #77000

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Thanks to Oracle for his Cape Town 7s preview which is best viewed here
twitter: @goodforthegame
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 23 hours ago #77005

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The lines for Samoa, NZ and SA have all now shifted out 2 or 3 points or so, I expect them to shift a couple more before games begin. Samoa now 1/2 to win, making the 17/20 look a steal! Also taken a treble of three handicaps together at around 11/2
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 22 hours ago #77006

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Toulouse v Lyon:

Toulouse head coach Ugo Mola has made a host of changes to his starting line-up

Lyon coach Pierre Mignoni has also rung the changes to his starting line-up with scrum-half Jonathan Pélissié the only player left from the run-on side which lost to Toulon at the weekend.

Not sure who did the biggest turnover but will side with the home side

Toulouse -10.5 @ 1.85
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 22 hours ago #77007

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Both teams don't give a damn about the Challenge and you can see it on the starting lines but Toulouse bench is far better than the LOU one.
Not touching the handicap but might go for tries or points depending on the line
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 17 hours ago #77009

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Few bets on the Challenge game tonight to entertain me a bit – 0.25U on each

ST over 1.5 tries HT @1.83
ST over 3.5 tries @ 1.66
ST over 29.5 @ 1.83
Over 2.5 tries HT @ 1.83

The information I have from a former rugby player is that Lyon is going there to do something and they should not play relax but still think with that bench and that team, Toulouse should be able to score
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 16 hours ago #77011

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I'm siding with Lyon on the +11.5 handicap tonight. Feel Lyon might want this more of these two useless teams...
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 16 hours ago #77012

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I feel like there is a lot of value in going Lyon outright with the team selections... seems like a 50/50 game to me.
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 16 hours ago #77013

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@ Rugga
The Lyon team is weaker and the bench is definitely far away from the quality the Toulouse one have so indeed Lyon might stay in the handicap and the are coming with ambition but winning I have a massive doubt especially after Toulouse defeat at home last Saturday
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 15 hours ago #77014

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You are right. Having second thoughts now lol. Lyon could just as easily get smashed here.
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 12 hours ago #77017

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Have no idea how I won that bet... what a joke feels wrong to have won that.
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 12 hours ago #77018

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Put winning now on Montpellier @ 3.04. Strong team starting.
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 11 hours ago #77020

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Oracle's weekend playlist including Euro Champions Cup and Euro Challenge Cup is available here
twitter: @goodforthegame
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 2 hours ago #77024

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Not sure how Toulouse did not manage to score at least 8 tries in that game - 2 more should have been scored in first half and at least 2 in the second one with a massive miss at the 78 minute followed by another one 2 minutes later.
I feel sorry for Cettas as this is a massive bad beat
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 1 hour ago #77025

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bradie82 wrote:
Not sure how Toulouse did not manage to score at least 8 tries in that game - 2 more should have been scored in first half and at least 2 in the second one with a massive miss at the 78 minute followed by another one 2 minutes later.
I feel sorry for Cettas as this is a massive bad beat

Thanks, it happens.....quite a lot with French sides I must say, lol. Luckily not a 5 unit punt :side:
Last Edit: 1 week 1 hour ago by Cettas.
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 1 hour ago #77026

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BetX out with their sevens cap and they go 7/10 on the - and 9/10 on the +

WHAT A JOKE!
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 1 hour ago #77027

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Glasgow v Montpellier:

The four previous meetings have seen 120 points scored in total, at an average of 30 per game.

Think this game will be more expansive than the previous four. Both teams bringing some big guns, I can see a few points beings scored (but 46 will do).

Over 45.5 @ 1.85
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 1 hour ago #77028

Lost a lot of respect for Betx
Gone are the days when they led while others followed!
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 1 week 16 minutes ago #77030

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Quite invested in the Samoa win! Almost a max bet so took a little cover on Canada +6.5. Still surprised the cap is under a converted try.

Samoa have powerful players and Motuga was immense last weekend, throw in Perez and the experience of Tupoa with Titch's coaching and you have a side just outside of the top 4 whilst Canada are way too narrow without a speedster. Think Samoa win this by 12 ...

Then happy to be on SA -27.5. See it as high as -33.5 in some places. Think the Blitzies open up here and can see 5 tries scored with ease ... Russia very week

Lastly see Kenya still 19/20 at Sporting vs France which is a great bet. Kenya thrive in SA and the home crowd will be behind them. Should be close but see Kenya winning by a score

Fiji are -16.5 at Sporting and Wales are +20.5 at BetX ... which one is correct?
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 6 days 22 hours ago #77031

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Bismarck Du Plessis anytime 10/3 and FTS 20/1

Not a big bet but it's a good price for a guy who was scoring tries week in week out before his injury... first game back tonight I believe
Last Edit: 6 days 22 hours ago by Northerner.
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 6 days 21 hours ago #77033

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RuggaBugga wrote:
BetX out with their sevens cap and they go 7/10 on the - and 9/10 on the +

WHAT A JOKE!

Look on the bright side - they getting a new website on Monday! :P :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 6 days 21 hours ago #77034

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2 bets of equal measure tonight. Montpellier at 3.04 and Agen at 4.66. Hopefully one comes off.
Last Edit: 6 days 21 hours ago by Rugabets.
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 6 days 21 hours ago #77036

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RuggaBugga wrote:
BetX out with their sevens cap and they go 7/10 on the - and 9/10 on the +

WHAT A JOKE!

Disgraceful. Just give them the cold shoulder. Plenty of books out there open accounts with them all!
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 6 days 20 hours ago #77037

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REALLY am excited for the Sevens!

SA vs Russia (Last 5 results)
10 Dec 2016 - SA 41 Russia 0
16 Apr 2016 - SA 21 Russia 10
9 Apr 2016 - SA 50 Russia 0
6 Feb 2016 - SA 40 Russia 0
30 Jan 2016 - SA 54 Russia 0

Only time the -30.5 cap hasn't come in in last 5 was in Singapore where the Blitzbokke team was missing Kwagga, Brown, Senatla and Spekman.
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 6 days 19 hours ago #77039

  • Matador
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Final squad lists can be found on this page:

www.worldrugby.org/sevens-series/news/299984

Just click the link and save the pdf.
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Weekend Rugga - CPT 7s / European Cups 6 days 18 hours ago #77040

  • Thrasher6
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Following a few sharpies on Agen +12.5 tonight.
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