All horse racing tips w/c 25th December

More
8 months 4 weeks ago #1 by mackem
Thread for all this weeks racing tip with thanks to Winning Form and @hollywoodbets for the previews

Tuesday 26th Greyville

All this weeks racing tips are most welcome here

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
8 months 4 weeks ago #2 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic All horse racing tips w/c 25th December
Going to the track tomorrow with the family so putting a few picks up:

R1 Hero’s Welcome 14/1 looks ew value. Ignore last as something amiss, formlines very strong from one Greyville turf outing and gets a plum draw here.

R3 Emperor Niarchos 9/1. Runs well fresh and in-form jock up, yard also in a mini purple patch.

R4 Azernack 8/1. Running on strongly last time out and extra 200 will suit.

R5 Swakopmund overpriced @ 20/1. All wins this distance, goes well fresh and nicely in at weights.

Twitter @southpawZA
The following user(s) said Thank You: The Toffee

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
8 months 3 weeks ago - 8 months 3 weeks ago #3 by LGAdams
Replied by LGAdams on topic All horse racing tips w/c 25th December
Just for interest sake I would like to see how these horses run to my calculated MR ratings for each based on exposed form.

KAZAAR 83 - 2nd run after rest, hard run last time, may battle to repeat. Poor Draw. Rating achieved this race 81
REBEL CIRCUS 82 - Found some support last out on 3rd place finish, could surprise - alsoo not drawn well. Rating achieved this run 63
ANGEL LANDING 80
HERO'S WELCOME 78
EMPRESS VALLEY (GAUTENG) 77 - Gauteng form often superior to KZN , but would still seem to need a little.Not best draw. Would be under sufferance at this weight add a bit of advantage for the Gauteng form. Ran to 68 Rating this race
WAR DEMON 76
VITTORIO 75
PRINCE ARDENT 74 - seems to have many to beat
MALARTIC 72

Here favorite backers will be hoping that the horse can be held together, plus run from a very poor draw - all for the princely return of R1.80. Favorite well suited to the lack of pace, was able to position himself well without using up too much, speeding off to the front, or getting locked at the back.

Race 2

KHETIWE 83 - Struggling for form
FORGIMME 81 - Will need to repeat previous peak effort, unfavorable draw Rated 81 off Gauteng track, probably superior.
FLIGHT CLUB 77 - Ran wide last capable of improving substantially, could be better than 77 unfavorable draw - Very Strong chance here Ran to 81 this race.
PLAYLIST 73 - Good debut, drawn 4 could improve. Probably running under sufferance. Run to 77 This race.
SILENT DREAM 69
SPRING LIGHTNING 68
LILIBET 67 - Excellent improvement up to 79 this race.
MELONY 65

Race 3

BEDAZZLED JOKER 86
ROY ROYALE 84
ROY'S TAXI 83
PERCY JACKSON 83
TURF CONQUEROR 83
INTERFEROMETER 81
EXQUISITE EIGHT 81
TORIO LAKE 80
SUBTROPICAL 79
POIVRE 79
ROCKET MASTER 78
FRANCESCO 77
ONE FOR ONE 76

Plenty under sufferance, and many more abundantly well in at the weights --- will rather pass this without some further indications. Rocket Master in my assessment a 78 , and races here off 62 -- but there are others like Roy's Taxi 83 races off 63, Interferometer 81 running off 63 Son Of Silver got no business in the market - so watch this one.

Race 4:

MYELISHA 83 2.4 62
AZNERAK 83 1.5 50 - Very well handicapped and fit.
FASHION QUEST 81 7.83 60 - Classy, could very well win here.
RIVERBOAT QUEEN 80 1.94 62
GO WITH FLO 79 2.09 61
HIDDEN THOUGHT 77 4.7 72
TROPICAL BLOW 76 1.65 54
NORTHERN STORM 72 1.675 52


Not hard to see why Aznerak starts favourite here racing off 50: R37 winner is all that could have been expected from a race like that.

Race 5

EFFORTLESS REWARD 90 92
CATHEDRAL COUNTY 88 85 (SCR)
CAPTAIN'S GIRL 87 7.33 93
BONNIE DAWN 87 81
SWAKOPMUND 86 77
FILIPPO 85 85
GREAT VALUE 84 82
RODNEY 83 90
KINGSMEAD 83 82

Effortless Reward can run to this mark (90) under today's weight.(No friends in the market) Cathedral County is well weighted and could get closer or in front (SCR). Most of the rest seem well off except Captain's Girl. She has however demonstrated the ability to hit the 87 mark under this weight. Great Value could Just get the better of Fillipo.

SWAKOPMUND 86 77 Was clearly crafted merits, pity I didn't see it sticking out like a sore thumb.




With Roy's Marciano friendless in the market, let's expect a good run from Captain Ellio. Winter Blues catches the eye as class but no friends in the market ?




Legend oozes class and is very well in here - must be way better than the 82 I have rated him, He's going to have prove his mettle against Dance On Air though. - False pace, messes with everything - rating the post race --- winner ran to a 71 Rating, can only be attributed to the pace.

Next race is a really poor affair - I couldn't seperate Mirwa and Rub Of The Green - but with Mirwa at 5/10 saves me the troouble of needing to make a selection here -- best to leave this race alone.

Would like to make From The Ashes a good thing here --- but the jockey choice ? and the horse putting up three best efforts one after the other, and jumping from the 10 pen? Does get a 80 rating off it's last race though. St Peter's Bay will be breathing down it's neck as well. Mutawaary - as much as they persist over the mile with this one - when it's best efforts have been sprinting is also a danger here with Roy's Plano. Race to stay out of.
Attachments:
Last edit: 8 months 3 weeks ago by LGAdams.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
8 months 3 weeks ago #4 by The Missing Link
Replied by The Missing Link on topic All horse racing tips w/c 25th December

southpaw wrote: Going to the track tomorrow with the family so putting a few picks up:

R1 Hero’s Welcome 14/1 looks ew value. Ignore last as something amiss, formlines very strong from one Greyville turf outing and gets a plum draw here.

R3 Emperor Niarchos 9/1. Runs well fresh and in-form jock up, yard also in a mini purple patch.

R4 Azernack 8/1. Running on strongly last time out and extra 200 will suit.

R5 Swakopmund overpriced @ 20/1. All wins this distance, goes well fresh and nicely in at weights.


Well played South (B)

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
8 months 3 weeks ago #5 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic All horse racing tips w/c 25th December

The Missing Link wrote:

southpaw wrote: Going to the track tomorrow with the family so putting a few picks up:

R1 Hero’s Welcome 14/1 looks ew value. Ignore last as something amiss, formlines very strong from one Greyville turf outing and gets a plum draw here.

R3 Emperor Niarchos 9/1. Runs well fresh and in-form jock up, yard also in a mini purple patch.

R4 Azernack 8/1. Running on strongly last time out and extra 200 will suit.

R5 Swakopmund overpriced @ 20/1. All wins this distance, goes well fresh and nicely in at weights.


Well played South (B)


Shot TML. (B) Was literally only person shouting it home in a packed Durban view room at the course! :) :lol:

Twitter @southpawZA

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
8 months 3 weeks ago #6 by LGAdams
Replied by LGAdams on topic All horse racing tips w/c 25th December
Excellent call there on Swakopmund, pity I didn't see it myself :) Well Done

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
8 months 3 weeks ago #7 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic All horse racing tips w/c 25th December
Winning Form picks for Kenilworth on Wednesday

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
8 months 3 weeks ago #8 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic All horse racing tips w/c 25th December
Vaal on Thursday, preview here

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
8 months 3 weeks ago #9 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic All horse racing tips w/c 25th December
Fairview on Friday, preview here

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
8 months 3 weeks ago #10 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic All horse racing tips w/c 25th December
Friday night at Greyville, preview here

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
8 months 3 weeks ago #11 by green pony
Replied by green pony on topic All horse racing tips w/c 25th December
speculative ATC place for last three @ greyville

r6 - Eddie Sweat
r7 - Tweed Valley
r8 - Ginger Biscuit

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
8 months 3 weeks ago #12 by green pony
Replied by green pony on topic All horse racing tips w/c 25th December

green pony wrote: speculative ATC place for last three @ greyville

r6 - Eddie Sweat
r7 - Tweed Valley
r8 - Ginger Biscuit


R6 - hate this scuffling at the starting stalls ...always seems to disrupt my picks :angry:
The following user(s) said Thank You: coil

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
8 months 3 weeks ago #13 by coil
Replied by coil on topic All horse racing tips w/c 25th December
Going for Chamber maid tonight , stable in reasonable form and the jockey is firing tonight , eachway at 11/2 a win and 11/10 a place .

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
8 months 3 weeks ago #14 by green pony
Replied by green pony on topic All horse racing tips w/c 25th December
stiffs Coil
maybe swing Ginger with Veale in the next?

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
8 months 3 weeks ago #15 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic All horse racing tips w/c 25th December
Sunday's preview for Greyville is available here

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
8 months 3 weeks ago #16 by kt6747
Replied by kt6747 on topic All horse racing tips w/c 25th December
All the best for the New Year Gents, wishing you the best year next year.

Some I like today at Greyville, but nothing big

Race 1 - Kirov's Tune @ 50/1
Showed nothing on debut but gone on breeding, dam Orange Blossom won at very young age over sprints before winning some decent over further. And I am liking the Noble tunes so hoping for a decent win a huge price.

Race 3 - Var Agtig @ 6/1
Some decent Gauteng form before moving, first run on grass down here but has it all to do. Also gets top stable jock back so hoping for a big run.

Race 4 - Rossie Bubles @ 6/1
Same as above. Also field not the strongest like above, any sort of run like Gauteng form, should be close.

Taken the Place and win double for Goosen 2 horses.

Hope you guys have a good evening, and if this comes in you won't hear from me as I would have passed out. (B) (B) (B) :lol: :lol: :silly: :silly:
The following user(s) said Thank You: Brent Graham

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
8 months 3 weeks ago #17 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic All horse racing tips w/c 25th December
all the best to you too KT. (B)

Just sharing an early, slightly speculative double for next weekend -

Penninsula Handicap - THE SLADE
Paddock Stakes - OH SUSANNA

I got 205/1 win double last night. Price been cut on both, although can still see 12/1 and 10/1 about.

I think THE SLADE is a very fast improving sort who will simply love this Kenilwoth long run-in. Lightly weighted against a few who have been exposed at this level before.

OH SUSANNA ran a cracker behind superstar last time out, baulked before running on late. Don't underestimate how good that winner is, from same yard. Snaith will be targeting this race and i like the 3yr olds at this time of the season when up against older with weight allowance.

You'll see both above are owned by Drakenstein Stud, who have a superb record of getting winners on the 2 big Cape racedays.

At the big odds will also be trying the singles ew.

Twitter @southpawZA
The following user(s) said Thank You: kt6747

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
8 months 3 weeks ago #18 by green pony
Replied by green pony on topic All horse racing tips w/c 25th December
Wishing all a profitable 2018 !

I'll have a small stab & add the Dynasty's (races 1 and 6 tomorrow) with yours South ...305/1
The following user(s) said Thank You: coil, kt6747

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
8 months 3 weeks ago #19 by green pony
Replied by green pony on topic All horse racing tips w/c 25th December

green pony wrote: Wishing all a profitable 2018 !

I'll have a small stab & add the Dynasty's (races 1 and 6 tomorrow) with yours South ...305/1


now up to you South (B) NO PRESSURE LoL!

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
8 months 2 weeks ago #20 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic All horse racing tips w/c 25th December

green pony wrote:

green pony wrote: Wishing all a profitable 2018 !

I'll have a small stab & add the Dynasty's (races 1 and 6 tomorrow) with yours South ...305/1


now up to you South (B) NO PRESSURE LoL!


:lol: nice one GP. Money has come for both, especially Oh Susanna, 14/1 into 8/1. At the very least we are on the right side of price.

Twitter @southpawZA

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Powered by Kunena Forum