Rugby Betting thread for week starting 1 January

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5 months 2 weeks ago #1 by Brent Graham
Ok lads a couple of Pro 14 games today and then some more European action over the weekend.

Hoping all of the Goodforthegame punters have a profitable year with their rugby betting and there is certainly plenty to look forward to with a revamped Super Rugby comp and Six Nations not far away now.

I am going to be focusing more on fixed odds in the early part of 2018 after an absolute blow out in the spreads last year.

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
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5 months 2 weeks ago #2 by coil
Happy New Year to all the GFTG resources and contributers , not a great Year for me and ended up slightly down overall , however am looking forward to 2018 and approaching things , like Brent , with a little more discipline than 2017 !!!

Going to start with an under 38.5 on total points in Ulster / Munster .

Stay safe and punt well (B)
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5 months 2 weeks ago #3 by Cettas
Leinster v Connacht

Over 42.5 @1.909
Over 4.5 tries @ 1.80

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5 months 2 weeks ago #4 by bradie82
All the best for 2018 to all the great punters in the GFTG community.
Second year in a row I managed to finish positive and this is thanks to all of you guys - your knowledge and expertise in Super Rugby and Currie Cup has been a massive contributor and I hope to give it back this year!!!

For today, weather should be dry in Dublin and the wind lower than expected. Been impressed last week by Leinster and despite few key players rested, some are back, especially in the backline and I can see Leinster looking for a bonus try point and hopefully Connacht scoring few points as well.

Leinster over 3.5 tries @1.80
Leinster to win & Over 42.5 @ 2
Connacht to score a penalty before 31' @1.83


If it goes well i ll get something on the Ulster game

Therefore going with

Lachignole
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5 months 2 weeks ago #5 by Cettas

bradie82 wrote: All the best for 2018 to all the great punters in the GFTG community.
Second year in a row I managed to finish positive and this is thanks to all of you guys - your knowledge and expertise in Super Rugby and Currie Cup has been a massive contributor and I hope to give it back this year!!!

For today, weather should be dry in Dublin and the wind lower than expected. Been impressed last week by Leinster and despite few key players rested, some are back, especially in the backline and I can see Leinster looking for a bonus try point and hopefully Connacht scoring few points as well.

Leinster over 3.5 tries @1.80
Leinster to win & Over 42.5 @ 2
Connacht to score a penalty before 31' @1.83


If it goes well i ll get something on the Ulster game

Therefore going with


Nice Connacht penalty before 2min (B)
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5 months 2 weeks ago #6 by bradie82
Connacht leading HT with a late try (good for you Cettas that one) but Leinster had few occasions to score tries and with the help of the wind in second half, I can see Leinster score quite loads

Leinster over 29.5 @1.83

Lachignole
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5 months 2 weeks ago #7 by coil

coil wrote: Happy New Year to all the GFTG resources and contributers , not a great Year for me and ended up slightly down overall , however am looking forward to 2018 and approaching things , like Brent , with a little more discipline than 2017 !!!

Going to start with an under 38.5 on total points in Ulster / Munster .

Stay safe and punt well (B)


Grrrrr, what a horrid way to start the year . 0-17 at the break and then Munster give away a yellow and red to allow ulster back into the game . Thought I was gone and then thought I would hold on until the final minute and then Ulster scored in the corner :sick: . The correct call , just outdone by some bad luck in the end .

Looking forward to this weekend's action and can't wait for the 6 nations to start in early Feb .

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5 months 2 weeks ago #8 by bradie82
I m taking a little risk here without any information on the Racing but Clermont will be without 18 players this week end in Racing and with the European Cup coming, the focus might be on the next 2 weeks rather than this week end.
Clermont is the Top 14 Black cat this year - injuries after injuries are impacting that team strongly and 3 more players got injured this week end. This is the first time I am seeing a team that impacted.Below is the list of injured players.

Cassang - Cancoriet - Fernandez - Fofana - Gérondeau - Kayser - Laidlaw - Lamerat - Lopez - McAllister - Nakaitaci - Penaud - Raka -Rougerie - Strettle - Timani - Uhila - Ulugia

Some key players might be rested as well this week end especially on a synthetic pitch and indoor- thinking mainly about Parra which could mean an issue to kick penalties on top of the injury one.

I m not going with a huge stake as Racing has a key match against Munster the following week end but will give it a try.

Racing -8 @1.90

Lachignole
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5 months 2 weeks ago #9 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Rugby Betting thread for week starting 1 January
Pro 14 caps for this weekend:

Edinburgh -25 v Kings
Scarlets -16 v Dragons
Benetton -1 v Cheetahs
Ospreys -7 v Blues
Zebre +14 v Glasgow
Leinster -12 v Ulster
Munster -12 v Connacht

As pointed out by Bradie, perhaps a weekend to wait for team news, given important European games for many teams the following weekend.

Have had a moderate go on the Scarlets -15, some of their key players were rested last weekend plus the Dragons away form is terrible, (plus their horrendous injury list also).
Although Scarlets have a key Champions Cup game 6 days later vs Bath, so it's a bit of a risk, hence only moderate stake for now.

Blues +7 and Connacht +12 were the others I thought may offer value.
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5 months 2 weeks ago #10 by shaft
Have it on good authority that Edinburgh will field their strongest side this weekend. The Kings could be in for a long night again. Also have my sights on Cheetahs outright @ odds against.

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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5 months 2 weeks ago #11 by hanrick

shaft wrote: Have it on good authority that Edinburgh will field their strongest side this weekend. The Kings could be in for a long night again. Also have my sights on Cheetahs outright @ odds against.


All the best for 2018 for everybody on the forum.

Haven't pulled the trigger yet, but also lining up the Cheetahs. Really like the squad they've taken to Italy.

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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5 months 2 weeks ago #12 by mackem
Many thanks to Oracle for his preview off Pro 14 - Round 13


twitter: @goodforthegame
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5 months 2 weeks ago #13 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Rugby Betting thread for week starting 1 January
Agree with the sentiment on the Cheetahs, good side going over, well rested and need a big tour!

Cheetahs to win at 11/10 for me

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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5 months 2 weeks ago #14 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Rugby Betting thread for week starting 1 January
Scarlets have named a decent pack, in particular front row - so can see them murdering the Dragons up front.
They're a bit short on quality outside backs off the bench, but I don't think it will matter.

Have gone in again on Scarlets -16

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5 months 2 weeks ago #15 by shergar86
Replied by shergar86 on topic Rugby Betting thread for week starting 1 January
I'm going to go for a Leinster -15 and Munster -13 double. I think Connacht will be quite weak and considering they played a massive game on Monday that they narrowly lost I could see them taking the foot off the pedal against a pissed off Munster team that will welcome back some of it's stars.
I think Ulster could have been absolutely trashed had a significantly weakened Munster team not been so careless against them in Belfast on Monday. The Leinster pack will destroy them if they play anything like they did in that game.
The weather forecast is looking dry so that would help for high scoring games.
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5 months 2 weeks ago #16 by shaft
Money down on Cheetahs to win @ 23/20.

Hoping for a decent Kings points line to go unders at but not too optimistic.

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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5 months 2 weeks ago #17 by Cettas

shaft wrote: Money down on Cheetahs to win @ 23/20.

Hoping for a decent Kings points line to go unders at but not too optimistic.


Points line seems to be around 44.5 - weather might play a part
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5 months 2 weeks ago #18 by bradie82
Weather will be wet and windy and the Kings points line is 9.5 on bet365.
I m gonna stay way from that game I reckon

Lachignole

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5 months 2 weeks ago #19 by Cettas
Worcester v Bath

Over 43.5pts @ 1.95

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5 months 2 weeks ago #20 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Rugby Betting thread for week starting 1 January
Gloucester at 5/6 to beat Northampton is a cracker! The Saints have lost their last 7 on the spin while Gloucester have only lost once in their last 7 (Against Wasps)

Saints have been useless when I have watched them and fancy the away side to take this by 5-10 points

Gloucester at 5/6 is a beauty

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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5 months 2 weeks ago #21 by shaft

bradie82 wrote: Weather will be wet and windy and the Kings points line is 9.5 on bet365.
I m gonna stay way from that game I reckon


Yep, not touching that.

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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5 months 2 weeks ago #22 by Thrasher6
Replied by Thrasher6 on topic Rugby Betting thread for week starting 1 January
I'm with Cettas on Over (42.5) in the Worcester v Bath match...both teams have points in them and the weather...although cold...will be ok.

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5 months 2 weeks ago #23 by Matador
Worchester O20.5 for me.

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5 months 2 weeks ago #24 by Oracle
ohhh wow Ne hanno bisogno tredici essere in grado di segnare #WTFFUB !!??

Absolutely never, ever worry about the stuff you cannot control!!

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5 months 2 weeks ago #25 by green pony
Replied by green pony on topic Rugby Betting thread for week starting 1 January
in bocca al lupo !!

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5 months 2 weeks ago #26 by Cettas
Agen v Castres

Casters to win @ 2.00

Castres won away last weekend against Clermont, looking for a repeat performance

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5 months 2 weeks ago #27 by The Vann

shergar86 wrote: I'm going to go for a Leinster -15 and Munster -13 double. I think Connacht will be quite weak and considering they played a massive game on Monday that they narrowly lost I could see them taking the foot off the pedal against a pissed off Munster team that will welcome back some of it's stars.
I think Ulster could have been absolutely trashed had a significantly weakened Munster team not been so careless against them in Belfast on Monday. The Leinster pack will destroy them if they play anything like they did in that game.
The weather forecast is looking dry so that would help for high scoring games.

Footie has been crap. Am going to try Munster to win by 21-30 @ 3/1

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5 months 1 week ago #28 by Oracle

The Vann wrote:

shergar86 wrote: I'm going to go for a Leinster -15 and Munster -13 double. I think Connacht will be quite weak and considering they played a massive game on Monday that they narrowly lost I could see them taking the foot off the pedal against a pissed off Munster team that will welcome back some of it's stars.
I think Ulster could have been absolutely trashed had a significantly weakened Munster team not been so careless against them in Belfast on Monday. The Leinster pack will destroy them if they play anything like they did in that game.
The weather forecast is looking dry so that would help for high scoring games.

Footie has been crap. Am going to try Munster to win by 21-30 @ 3/1


Extremely clever logic used here Vann, well done

Absolutely never, ever worry about the stuff you cannot control!!
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5 months 1 week ago #29 by The Vann

Oracle wrote:

The Vann wrote:

shergar86 wrote: I'm going to go for a Leinster -15 and Munster -13 double. I think Connacht will be quite weak and considering they played a massive game on Monday that they narrowly lost I could see them taking the foot off the pedal against a pissed off Munster team that will welcome back some of it's stars.
I think Ulster could have been absolutely trashed had a significantly weakened Munster team not been so careless against them in Belfast on Monday. The Leinster pack will destroy them if they play anything like they did in that game.
The weather forecast is looking dry so that would help for high scoring games.

Footie has been crap. Am going to try Munster to win by 21-30 @ 3/1


Extremely clever logic used here Vann, well done

Thanks. But the (B) goes to shergar for the call on the match.

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5 months 1 week ago #30 by Northerner
Replied by Northerner on topic Rugby Betting thread for week starting 1 January
For anyone with Bet365, there are what I think are some quite attractive odds for the Montauban vs Colomiers game starting in around an hour, with some rain forecast... I've gone with:

Colomiers under 18.5 10/11
More converted penalties than tries 6/4
Total tries 0-3 11/4 1.2 units (best odds i reckon)
Under 4.5 tries 11/8
Under 47.5 points 5/6
Under 23.5 1st Half 5/6

All small bets

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5 months 1 week ago #31 by shergar86
Replied by shergar86 on topic Rugby Betting thread for week starting 1 January
No worries Vann...Irish derby games can be quite easy to predict so I was quite confident. I’m looking forward to super rugby starting up again. Always find it a great competition for punting.
The champions cup next week should be interesting and I’ll see if there’s much value to be had anywhere.

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5 months 1 week ago #32 by southpaw
Double for me today:

Exeter win
Wasps +7.5

12/10

Chiefs love playing on these artificial pitches, their game is perfectly suited for it and will go well today. Wasps are in great form and while the line is 2.5 i prefer a bit of safety as Saracens have picked a strong side.

"He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life." Muhammad Ali.
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5 months 1 week ago - 5 months 1 week ago #33 by Northerner
Replied by Northerner on topic Rugby Betting thread for week starting 1 January

Northerner wrote: For anyone with Bet365, there are what I think are some quite attractive odds for the Montauban vs Colomiers game starting in around an hour, with some rain forecast... I've gone with:

Colomiers under 18.5 10/11
More converted penalties than tries 6/4
Total tries 0-3 11/4 1.2 units (best odds i reckon)
Under 4.5 tries 11/8
Under 47.5 points 5/6
Under 23.5 1st Half 5/6


All small bets


Hope people followed these! :P Very decent profit from that

Looking ahead to the Prem games, I've gone with Exeter -5 and Saracens -2 both at evens, along with a double for both straight wins

Saracens naming a strong team with both Itoje and Vunipola back, and Exeter for the reasons Southpaw outlined above

Also gone for Sam Simmonds anytime 15/8, first 11/1, double 14/1 in the Exeter game
Last edit: 5 months 1 week ago by Northerner. Reason: 11/1 instead of 11/2
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5 months 1 week ago #34 by southpaw
well can add me to a losing start on 2018 rugby punting, Exeter being schooled by Newcastle.

Really worried about the being dragged into too much NH rugby punting next 2 months before Super Rugby starts, as I just can't get some teams right in Aviva.

"He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life." Muhammad Ali.

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5 months 1 week ago #35 by coil
Awful by Exeter South , followed with Exeter plus .5 and Wasps plus 9.5 , an unbelievable result by Newcastle grr.

Bad weekend for me on most fronts.

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5 months 1 week ago #36 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Rugby Betting thread for week starting 1 January

bradie82 wrote: I m taking a little risk here without any information on the Racing but Clermont will be without 18 players this week end in Racing and with the European Cup coming, the focus might be on the next 2 weeks rather than this week end.
Clermont is the Top 14 Black cat this year - injuries after injuries are impacting that team strongly and 3 more players got injured this week end. This is the first time I am seeing a team that impacted.Below is the list of injured players.

Cassang - Cancoriet - Fernandez - Fofana - Gérondeau - Kayser - Laidlaw - Lamerat - Lopez - McAllister - Nakaitaci - Penaud - Raka -Rougerie - Strettle - Timani - Uhila - Ulugia

Some key players might be rested as well this week end especially on a synthetic pitch and indoor- thinking mainly about Parra which could mean an issue to kick penalties on top of the injury one.

I m not going with a huge stake as Racing has a key match against Munster the following week end but will give it a try.

Racing -8 @1.90


Nice one Bradie, followed you on this, FT 58 - 6. (B) (B) (B)
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