Rugby Betting Tips for Week Starting the 8th Jan

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8 months 1 week ago #1 by shergar86
I know for the Southern Hemisphere punters Champions Cup may not interest them but very interested to hear peoples thoughts on where they see the value this weekend. It's the penultimate round and still so many teams in with a shout of getting into the quarters. For what it's worth the following are my handicap expectations for the weekend;

Bath -6 v Scarlets
Ulster +2 v La Rochelle
Exeter -4 v Montpellier
Harlequins +8 v Wasps
Northampton +10 v Claremont
Ospreys +4 v Saracens
Leinster -15 v Glasgow
Toulon -28 v Treviso
Racing 92 -2 v Munster
Castres -3 v Leicester

Those odds may not be how the bookies see it but they'd be my expectations. Also its the time of year when some of those teams that are out of the competition play academy sides. Beware of the likes of Leicester, Northampton and Harlequins. They may have very weakened teams out. There will be massive fluctuations in the spread as the week unfolds.
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8 months 1 week ago #2 by bradie82
Here are my first thoughts on the Champions Cup game:

Bath -7 v Scarlets - Bath at home should win that one – I am waiting to see if some of the third row players will be back for Bath
Ulster -2 v La Rochelle – Tricky one but I would give ground advantage and I reckon the bookie will do the same – could be a game with high scoring
Exeter -5 v Montpellier – Montpellier will be without scrum half (except if Ruan is coming back which I doubt) and Exeter should win that one at home despite losing against Newcastle this week end
Harlequins +8 v Wasps : must win for Wasps with a bonus point while Quins don’t care about Champions Cup anymore – over tries game and over tries Wasps would be my first thoughts
Northampton +5 v Clermont – Once again Clermont will be without 15 to 20 players and I reckon it will not be as simple as it looks – only good thing is that Saints are out and might rest loads of key players
Ospreys +7 v Saracens – Must win for the Sarries and with what I saw yesterday, I cannot see the Ospreys winning that one – over tries Sarries could be a good spot as well
Leinster -20 v Glasgow – Glasgow’s coach already said it will perform a turnover for this game as players have been involved in loads of games recently – Leinster to win with a bonus point try
Toulon -20 v Treviso – Must win for Toulon with a bonus point try if possible but it won’t be that easy against Treviso if Toulon keeps playing as bad as they did recently
Racing 92 -2 v Munster – Tricky one again but playing indoor on artificial grass will be an advantage for Racing – this could end up in a high scoring
Castres -5 v Leicester – Castres to win that one at home – both team are out but I can see a huge turnover for Tigers while Castres will do that turnover the following week
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8 months 1 week ago #3 by mackem
Six Nations starts on 3rd February, here's a heads up on the fixtures, recent 6N finishes and the outright betting .

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8 months 1 week ago #4 by shergar86
Replied by shergar86 on topic Rugby Betting Tips for Week Starting the 8th Jan
Paddy Power have priced them up as follows

Bath -4 v Scarlets
Ulster Scr v La Rochelle
Exeter -5 v Montpellier
Harlequins +7 v Wasps
Northampton +9 v Claremont
Ospreys +8 v Saracens
Leinster -14 v Glasgow
Toulon -23 v Treviso
Racing 92 -4 v Munster
Castres -5 v Leicester

shergar86 wrote: I know for the Southern Hemisphere punters Champions Cup may not interest them but very interested to hear peoples thoughts on where they see the value this weekend. It's the penultimate round and still so many teams in with a shout of getting into the quarters. For what it's worth the following are my handicap expectations for the weekend;

Bath -6 v Scarlets
Ulster +2 v La Rochelle
Exeter -4 v Montpellier
Harlequins +8 v Wasps
Northampton +10 v Claremont
Ospreys +4 v Saracens
Leinster -15 v Glasgow
Toulon -28 v Treviso
Racing 92 -2 v Munster
Castres -3 v Leicester

Those odds may not be how the bookies see it but they'd be my expectations. Also its the time of year when some of those teams that are out of the competition play academy sides. Beware of the likes of Leicester, Northampton and Harlequins. They may have very weakened teams out. There will be massive fluctuations in the spread as the week unfolds.

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8 months 1 week ago #5 by bradie82
Based on the handicap available on bet365, my first thoughts would be:

• Leinster -14 @1.90 – as I said, Glasgow will probably do a turnover and the squad will not be strong. Leinster smashed Glasgow in Scotland earlier in the competition and I cannot see any other result that a win with a bonus try point

• Castres x Saracens x Leinster @ 1.96 – As I said, Castres will as usual give 200% at home against a Leicester team already out before doing a huge turnover for their last game in Munster and Exeter at home against Montpellier. Saracens are back in business and despite 2 yellow cards this week end (ended up with 2 tries for Wasps), the fact that Billy and Mario are back makes a huge difference and they should win this one.

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8 months 1 week ago - 8 months 1 week ago #6 by shergar86
Replied by shergar86 on topic Rugby Betting Tips for Week Starting the 8th Jan

bradie82 wrote: Based on the handicap available on bet365, my first thoughts would be:

• Leinster -14 @1.90 – as I said, Glasgow will probably do a turnover and the squad will not be strong. Leinster smashed Glasgow in Scotland earlier in the competition and I cannot see any other result that a win with a bonus try point

• Castres x Saracens x Leinster @ 1.96 – As I said, Castres will as usual give 200% at home against a Leicester team already out before doing a huge turnover for their last game in Munster and Exeter at home against Montpellier. Saracens are back in business and despite 2 yellow cards this week end (ended up with 2 tries for Wasps), the fact that Billy and Mario are back makes a huge difference and they should win this one.


Leinster appear to be drifting with the bookies and have gone to -15. I think they'll win comfortably but I'm always wary of the dreaded non-atmospheric 13.00 kick off time. I always feel it takes a half hour or so for the home/dominant team to properly get into their stride by which time it may be too late. Leinster were a little sluggish against an admittedly enormous Montpelier team when they played at this time in the first pool game. The last time they played before that in the RDS at 13.00 was against Wasps and they got smacked 6-33(probably not really relevant as it was a much different team). Glasgow have been absolutely flying in the Pro 14 and are no mugs so I await to hear their team news but leinster should win this by 10-20.

I like your treble call also.
Last edit: 8 months 1 week ago by shergar86.
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8 months 1 week ago #7 by bradie82
Glasgow coach said he would rest all his key players as they played quite loads recently with no real break and as they are out of the competitions, I don’t see why they would give 200% Sunday while Leinster has a quarter final at home to go for but I understand -14 could be seen as a big handicap especially once the bonus point will be secured. The over team points/tries could be the best move on such game but I am guessing it will be around 5/6 tries and around 35 points at least (depending on forecast obviously)
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8 months 1 week ago #8 by shergar86
Replied by shergar86 on topic Rugby Betting Tips for Week Starting the 8th Jan
You've convinced me!:) Just a single on them and will see what comes out of the wood work in the next few days.

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8 months 1 week ago #9 by bradie82

shergar86 wrote: You've convinced me!:) Just a single on them and will see what comes out of the wood work in the next few days.


Don't put pressure on me please :lol:

Interesting to see that La Rochelle is now favourite. They rested few players last week end in the Top 14 against Oyonnax but Ulster underdog at Ravenhill where it is extremely hard to win becomes quite interesting.

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8 months 1 week ago #10 by shergar86
Replied by shergar86 on topic Rugby Betting Tips for Week Starting the 8th Jan

bradie82 wrote:

shergar86 wrote: You've convinced me!:) Just a single on them and will see what comes out of the wood work in the next few days.


Don't put pressure on me please :lol:

Interesting to see that La Rochelle is now favourite. They rested few players last week end in the Top 14 against Oyonnax but Ulster underdog at Ravenhill where it is extremely hard to win becomes quite interesting.



Don't worry, I won't hold it against you if they don't win:)
Honestly I think this Ulster team is really average. I don't care if they have Best and Henderson back in the pack, they have a lot of very average players. La Rochelle made a mess of their away trip to Wasps and I think they could win this weekend in Ravenhill if they pick the correct team(which they undoubtedly will). Ulster's record in Ravenhill is very good in Europe so I understand where you are coming from but there seems to be something amiss with this team. They actually tried hard against Leinster but were so far behind them it was embarrassing. I just don't think Ulster have the pack to be able to0 dominate any big pack and La Rochelle are massive with some serious backs. I could see La Rochelle going to -4 by the end of the week.
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8 months 1 week ago - 8 months 1 week ago #11 by bradie82
Agree with your statement on Ulster but I reckon the Irish scrum will be stronger than the French one and with the rain forecasted all day long Friday and Saturday in Belfast (so far), plus the crowd pushing for Ulster and the lack of experience for the French side (you could feel it against Wasps), if the handicap moves to 4 for La Rochelle, then I will be tempted to go for the H Ulster or at least an alternative one – can’t see Ulster get beaten by more than 7 points at home but you are the Pro14 expert so might be totally wrong.
Last edit: 8 months 1 week ago by bradie82.

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8 months 1 week ago #12 by bradie82
Just to confirm something I said earlier – Montpellier has 3 scrum halves injured (Paillauge and Sanga 100% sure, Pienaar 99% sure as he was still in Ireland yesterday for his son’s birth and has not train for a while now) so 3 solutions for Vern Cotter :
• The Georgian Aprasidze, 20 years old on Sunday
• Guigue, 18 years old who played a bit on last Saturday
• Cruden with Steyn playing fly-half

Not sure what would be the impact but I am guessing the handicap for Exeter might move slightly in the next few days

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8 months 1 week ago #13 by Thrasher6
Replied by Thrasher6 on topic Rugby Betting Tips for Week Starting the 8th Jan
It's all about opinions...and two very good (albeit) opposing ones on the Ulster match. It will be interesting to see where the market moves to...but appreciate both your views

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8 months 1 week ago - 8 months 1 week ago #14 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Rugby Betting Tips for Week Starting the 8th Jan
Quality discussion lads. I love this forum - such a great source of information and opinion.

I'm pretty strong on Sarries over the Ospreys, just think they'll hold too many guns. Ospreys pack smashed the Blues pack on the weekend, yet they almost lost that game. Sarries looked back near their best on the weekend, was hard to believe it was Itoje's and B Vunipola's first game back from injury, such as the impact they had.
Had a decent go on Sarries -8

Also on Leinster -14 and Wasps -7, both moderate stakes.

Lastly I've put the above 3 selections in an acca with La Rochelle -1 and Castre -5, @ 26.50
Last edit: 8 months 1 week ago by Brad Breath.

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8 months 1 week ago #15 by bradie82
To add more information on my Castres choice.
I read an article yesterday where Urios, Castres Coach, was saying he was extremely unhappy about last week end performance and expecting a reaction against Leicester this week end at home. But also that this game was a question of pride – Urios did not like the attitude of the English players when they trashed Castres 54-29 as they were all laughing and he is still very upset about that. Some injured players such as Palis or Dumora will be back on the pitch and I am guessing some youngsters like Le Bourhis will get some time against Munster.

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8 months 1 week ago #16 by shergar86
Replied by shergar86 on topic Rugby Betting Tips for Week Starting the 8th Jan

bradie82 wrote: To add more information on my Castres choice.
I read an article yesterday where Urios, Castres Coach, was saying he was extremely unhappy about last week end performance and expecting a reaction against Leicester this week end at home. But also that this game was a question of pride – Urios did not like the attitude of the English players when they trashed Castres 54-29 as they were all laughing and he is still very upset about that. Some injured players such as Palis or Dumora will be back on the pitch and I am guessing some youngsters like Le Bourhis will get some time against Munster.


Very interesting. I remember last year Leicester had Racing 92 away in the same round as this(another dead rubber) and Racing beat them 34-3. I feel English and French teams are always more pragmatic about Europe than the Celtic countries and always have an eye on their domestic league when they are no longer in with a chance of progressing beyond the group stage(more so when they are the away side). Especially when the likes of Ford, May, etc. will be taken from them during the 6 Nations window and their squad will be stretched even more. I can't see Leicester beat a limited enough but proud Castres side in their own back yard and +7 probably isn't enough.

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8 months 1 week ago #17 by bradie82

shergar86 wrote: Very interesting. I remember last year Leicester had Racing 92 away in the same round as this(another dead rubber) and Racing beat them 34-3. I feel English and French teams are always more pragmatic about Europe than the Celtic countries and always have an eye on their domestic league when they are no longer in with a chance of progressing beyond the group stage(more so when they are the away side). Especially when the likes of Ford, May, etc. will be taken from them during the 6 Nations window and their squad will be stretched even more. I can't see Leicester beat a limited enough but proud Castres side in their own back yard and +7 probably isn't enough.


To be honest I expect a bit of the same game as last year Racing vs Leicester. Can’t see Leicester bringing their big guns in that game and risking getting injured players. But one question for you – what do you mean by limited Castres team as it looks like you under estimate them in my opinion. They struggled at the beginning of the season but they managed 7 wins in a row which in top 14 is a feat believe me as it is almost impossible to win away. Moreover, the Champions Cup was never a target for them but a place in the top 6 in top 14 is (and this is the case for few French team as the top 6 brings the Champions Cup and the cash that goes with) but still, that team and their pride could destroy the Tigers easily and to be honest, if the weather is good, I will take a bonus try point for Castres as a main bet.
On the last year topic, Leinster on game 5 was receiving Montpellier which had a decent squad and the Irish smashed the French side 57-3 (red card for Montpellier after 26 minutes indeed but was already 14-3) so I am hoping for a similar game against Glasgow.
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8 months 1 week ago #18 by shergar86
Replied by shergar86 on topic Rugby Betting Tips for Week Starting the 8th Jan

bradie82 wrote:

shergar86 wrote: Very interesting. I remember last year Leicester had Racing 92 away in the same round as this(another dead rubber) and Racing beat them 34-3. I feel English and French teams are always more pragmatic about Europe than the Celtic countries and always have an eye on their domestic league when they are no longer in with a chance of progressing beyond the group stage(more so when they are the away side). Especially when the likes of Ford, May, etc. will be taken from them during the 6 Nations window and their squad will be stretched even more. I can't see Leicester beat a limited enough but proud Castres side in their own back yard and +7 probably isn't enough.


To be honest I expect a bit of the same game as last year Racing vs Leicester. Can’t see Leicester bringing their big guns in that game and risking getting injured players. But one question for you – what do you mean by limited Castres team as it looks like you under estimate them in my opinion. They struggled at the beginning of the season but they managed 7 wins in a row which in top 14 is a feat believe me as it is almost impossible to win away. Moreover, the Champions Cup was never a target for them but a place in the top 6 in top 14 is (and this is the case for few French team as the top 6 brings the Champions Cup and the cash that goes with) but still, that team and their pride could destroy the Tigers easily and to be honest, if the weather is good, I will take a bonus try point for Castres as a main bet.
On the last year topic, Leinster on game 5 was receiving Montpellier which had a decent squad and the Irish smashed the French side 57-3 (red card for Montpellier after 26 minutes indeed but was already 14-3) so I am hoping for a similar game against Glasgow.


That's a fair question and I guess I'm basing my opinion on how they have performed this year in Europe(while i probably should pay more attention to their recent form in the Top 14). Munster are my team and I couldn't believe how bad they played in round 1 away to Castres and still get a draw. Castres also got smashed by Leicester and Racing away. They did however, beat Racing by 3 points in Round 3.
On the Munster game I fear that the whole U Arena/Plastic Pitch scenario may not suit them and that Racing may beat them by more than 4 points. Munster will know that they are probably guaranteed 5 points against Castres which means they may not be as desperate to get the win as they could be this Sunday. I'm staying away from the game personally.

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8 months 1 week ago #19 by bradie82

shergar86 wrote: That's a fair question and I guess I'm basing my opinion on how they have performed this year in Europe(while i probably should pay more attention to their recent form in the Top 14). Munster are my team and I couldn't believe how bad they played in round 1 away to Castres and still get a draw. Castres also got smashed by Leicester and Racing away. They did however, beat Racing by 3 points in Round 3.
On the Munster game I fear that the whole U Arena/Plastic Pitch scenario may not suit them and that Racing may beat them by more than 4 points. Munster will know that they are probably guaranteed 5 points against Castres which means they may not be as desperate to get the win as they could be this Sunday. I'm staying away from the game personally.


Munster is the Irish team I follow/support as my sister in law is from Tipp’ (been to Croke Park few times as well for the Hurling – was there for the 2016 All-Ireland Senior Hurling Championship – what a game!!) and my bro and I have the dream to go to Thomond Park one day!!
Anyway back to the rugby – I just realized that last year, Tigers, once out of the Champions cup, lost indeed 34-3 @ Racing but then 0-43 at home against Glasgow so I guessing (and hoping) to get the same motivation this year :evil:
On the Munster game you are correct – playing indoor on the synthetic grass will be a massive advantage for Racing as they are getting used to it but I don’t agree when you say they may not be as desperate to get the win as they could be this Sunday – a defensive and/or offensive bonus point is a must to finish first or as one of the second best cause with 20 points only, Racing could be on top with 21 points and there is still a risk for Toulon, Montpellier, Saracens and Ulster to finish with 21 or more points – unlikely to happen I agree but I don’t think Munster as the luxury to avoid a quarter final at home.

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8 months 1 week ago #20 by bradie82
3 bets for me on the Pro D2 game tonight but half a unit on each.
Beziers at home should win that one but I really like the Biarritz starting line with a good bench as well.
Forecast is dry, not too cold and no wind for the game tonight so I will against my Thursday Night Pro D2 Under rule and take 2 over on this game

Biarritz + 8.5 @1.72
Over 44.5 @1.90
Over 3.5 tries @1.57
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8 months 1 week ago #21 by shergar86
Replied by shergar86 on topic Rugby Betting Tips for Week Starting the 8th Jan
Leinster have gone to -20 with PP. Looks like they are going to start Larmour and Lowe which could make for a brilliant spectacle.
Having listened to some people on the radio last night talking about this U Arena it apparently is stifling hot and the surface is crazily quick. I know the bookies will be onto this and has already been mentioned by somebody a few days ago on this thread but I just can't see this being anything other than a high scoring game with plenty of tries. It will be a massive shock to Munsters system and if i wasn't a Munster fan i'd probably go for -2 Racing 1st half too.
Northampton have gone to -5 but I just can't shake the lifeless displays thay've given so far in the tournament and Claremont may be down a lot of players but they will have the desire whereas Northampton will look at this fixture as an inconvenience.

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8 months 1 week ago #22 by bradie82

shergar86 wrote: Leinster have gone to -20 with PP. Looks like they are going to start Larmour and Lowe which could make for a brilliant spectacle.
Having listened to some people on the radio last night talking about this U Arena it apparently is stifling hot and the surface is crazily quick. I know the bookies will be onto this and has already been mentioned by somebody a few days ago on this thread but I just can't see this being anything other than a high scoring game with plenty of tries. It will be a massive shock to Munsters system and if i wasn't a Munster fan i'd probably go for -2 Racing 1st half too.
Northampton have gone to -5 but I just can't shake the lifeless displays thay've given so far in the tournament and Claremont may be down a lot of players but they will have the desire whereas Northampton will look at this fixture as an inconvenience.


Not surprised at all by the Leinster handicap and glad I took the -14 early this week so no regrets.
The U Arena can be extremely boiling and it makes the ball slippery – I went there for the Stones concert and it was like getting out of a plane in a tropical country! But Racing is getting used to so Munster might struggle at the beginning and you are correct, that pitch in that environment makes it perfect for huge scoring and especially if you have players keen on side-step.
On the Saints topic, I don’t understand why the handicap is going down – Toeava has been not sanctioned for his yellow card and will be able to play and Lamerat and the Mac might be back as well + few players rested last week end so I don’t think Clermont won twice against Sarries to miss the opportunity to have a quarter final at home and a semi-final in France but fine with me if the handicap can keep going down

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8 months 1 week ago #23 by shergar86
Replied by shergar86 on topic Rugby Betting Tips for Week Starting the 8th Jan
www.independent.ie/sport/rugby/ulster-ru...espect-36477627.html

Good article here from Neil Francis. He gives his take on a number of the games this weekend. He's pretty accurate when he does give tips.
Seems to favour Exeter, Harlequins on the + and possibly Glasgow on the + also. Check it out if you've any interest.
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8 months 1 week ago #24 by mackem
Many thanks to Oracle for his preview of Kings v Cheetahs on Saturday


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8 months 1 week ago #25 by bradie82

bradie82 wrote: 3 bets for me on the Pro D2 game tonight but half a unit on each.
Beziers at home should win that one but I really like the Biarritz starting line with a good bench as well.
Forecast is dry, not too cold and no wind for the game tonight so I will against my Thursday Night Pro D2 Under rule and take 2 over on this game

Biarritz + 8.5 @1.72
Over 44.5 @1.90
Over 3.5 tries @1.57


Gutted by the over 44.5
Biarritz missing 2 easy penalties in the first 10 minutes and the number of tries missed during the game - they should have won that one!

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8 months 1 week ago #26 by bradie82
Just a quick but important information on the Bath vs Scarlets game - Leigh Halfpenny and Johnny Mcnicholl failed fitness tests and won't be playing - knowing the importance of those 2 and especially Leigh and his kicking skills, that could become complicated to win that game for the Welsh side.
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8 months 1 week ago #27 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Rugby Betting Tips for Week Starting the 8th Jan

bradie82 wrote: Just a quick but important information on the Bath vs Scarlets game - Leigh Halfpenny and Johnny Mcnicholl failed fitness tests and won't be playing - knowing the importance of those 2 and especially Leigh and his kicking skills, that could become complicated to win that game for the Welsh side.


I watched most books move in (on the Scarlets) when the teams were originally announced. Then when the above news broke they drifted out significantly.
Personally think the bookies have over reacted - Patchell was MOM last weekend at Fullback and his kicking has been better than Halfpenny's in recent months.
Granted, Dan Jones not as classy as Patchell at FH, but he has played a lot there in the last 12 months.

Also think Bath really miss Louw and Faletau in their back row. Underhill is back for Bath, but I can see the Scarlets back row (esp James Davies) being a real nuisance.

Bath did win the 1st leg away at the Scarlets, but the conditions were atrocious which didn't allow Scarlets to play their usual game.
A fine dry night is forecast in Bath tonight.

As such I think the Scarlets have a real shot at winning this, so have backed them @ 3.4

Will also jump on the best plus I can find later, currently +6

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8 months 1 week ago - 8 months 1 week ago #28 by bradie82
The Clermont team has been announced and it is quite a strong starting line

Falgoux - Kayser - Slimani - VDM - Vahaamaina - Chouly - Lee - Lapandry - Para - McAlister
Lamerat - Betham - Grosso - Toeava - Abendanon

Becnh is not bad either :

Chaume - Beheregaray - Zirakashvili - Jedrasiak - Iturria - Trussardi - Spedding - Koleileshvili

But Saints are bringing a strong squad as well and I don't understand why

Tuala – Pisi – Horne – Stephenson – Foden – Mallinder – Groom - Ma’afu - Hartley – Brookes – Ratuniyarawa – Day – Lawes – Wood - Harrison

Bench is a bit weak however

Haywood - van Wyk - Ford-Robinson – Paterson – Eadie – Reinach – Grayson - Tuitavake
Last edit: 8 months 1 week ago by bradie82.
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8 months 1 week ago #29 by bradie82
Leicester Tigers brings a weak team in Castres and the handicap is melting but still managed to find some -5.5 and despite not having the French starting line, I am going with it and adding an extra bet

Castres -5.5 @1.75
Castres HT/FT @1.70

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8 months 1 week ago #30 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Rugby Betting Tips for Week Starting the 8th Jan

bradie82 wrote: Leicester Tigers brings a weak team in Castres and the handicap is melting but still managed to find some -5.5 and despite not having the French starting line, I am going with it and adding an extra bet

Castres -5.5 @1.75
Castres HT/FT @1.70


Got some -5.5 also, at Sportingbet which I presume same as you?

Also got Castres 13+ @ 2.80, sadly this now gone

All line ups are on this link:
m.epcrugby.com/europeanrugbychampionscup/lineups.php

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8 months 1 week ago #31 by shergar86
Replied by shergar86 on topic Rugby Betting Tips for Week Starting the 8th Jan

Brad Breath wrote:

bradie82 wrote: Leicester Tigers brings a weak team in Castres and the handicap is melting but still managed to find some -5.5 and despite not having the French starting line, I am going with it and adding an extra bet

Castres -5.5 @1.75
Castres HT/FT @1.70


Got some -5.5 also, at Sportingbet which I presume same as you?

Also got Castres 13+ @ 2.80, sadly this now gone

All line ups are on this link:
m.epcrugby.com/europeanrugbychampionscup/lineups.php



BALLS!!!I should have used my common sense and gotten on Castres early in the week...well done to those that have!I can only imagine the handicap that will be set for them next week when thy visit Munster with absolutely zero interest in the game.
Anyway I'm still looking for some divine inspiration for this weekend. Apart from Leinster -15 on a single I'm still unsure. I find it really hard to call tonight's game and think it could be a cracking game if the weather is good(which it looks to be). Might go for the over 42.5 point mark.

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8 months 1 week ago #32 by bradie82
For tonight game the weather will be good and the two teams will be looking for a win and I can see some high scoring. Therefore I am going with :

Over 41.5 points @1.90
Over 3.5 penalties scored @2.20
Scarlets to score a penalty before 20"30 @1.83
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8 months 1 week ago #33 by Northerner
Replied by Northerner on topic Rugby Betting Tips for Week Starting the 8th Jan
Jordan Larmour anytime at 11/8 looks good value - gone for that as well a double @15/2, and long odds hat trick @ 50/1

He's looked ridiculously good in recent weeks, and with a -21 handicap you'd expect him to get on the scoresheet at least once for Leinster

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8 months 1 week ago #34 by bradie82

Brad Breath wrote:

bradie82 wrote: Leicester Tigers brings a weak team in Castres and the handicap is melting but still managed to find some -5.5 and despite not having the French starting line, I am going with it and adding an extra bet

Castres -5.5 @1.75
Castres HT/FT @1.70


Got some -5.5 also, at Sportingbet which I presume same as you?

Also got Castres 13+ @ 2.80, sadly this now gone

All line ups are on this link:
m.epcrugby.com/europeanrugbychampionscup/lineups.php


On the SA Sportingbet, there is still some Castres -7 @1.909 that is value looking at the handicap of 13.5 available elsewhere

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8 months 1 week ago #35 by bradie82
On the Challenge Cup side, 2 bets with 0.5 units on each

Agen over 1.5 tries @1.66
Stade Francais over 1.5 tries @1.50

Gloucester will only be looking at a win and Agen at home should go for try scoring during 80 minutes.
Stade Francais brings a huge squad in Edimburgh in order to get something and keep hope for the quarter finals

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8 months 1 week ago - 8 months 1 week ago #36 by shergar86
Replied by shergar86 on topic Rugby Betting Tips for Week Starting the 8th Jan
Scarlets are actually one of the best sides in Europe on their day. Great team to watch. Happy to have stayed away from predicting the winner of that one and just gone for the overs.
Think I’ll go for the unders in the Ulster game tomorrow. They’re up against it and can defend well, the ravenhill factor and finally the weather being the biggest decider in my decision.
Last edit: 8 months 1 week ago by shergar86.
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8 months 1 week ago #37 by Thrasher6
Replied by Thrasher6 on topic Rugby Betting Tips for Week Starting the 8th Jan
A great shout by Bad Breath...well thought out,,,and i wish I had a bit more spunk..to really go for it...did alright..but I doff my hat to a well thought out call... and glad you absolutely creamed it... :)
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8 months 1 week ago #38 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Rugby Betting Tips for Week Starting the 8th Jan
Just popping in to say thanks to the Northern Hem lads on the site. The posts have been top class and really enjoying the thread. I should be able to watch some rugby later and will no doubt get sucked in.

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
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8 months 1 week ago #39 by bradie82
Thanks Brent for your message
1 bet so far me today on the Chiefs game. Looking at the actual standings, Exeter needs 10 points in the next 2 games to possibly finish in the best second position. Montpellier defense has not been great recently and Exeter will target a bonus try in my opinion.

Exeter over 2.5 tries @ 1.57

Probably more to come later
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8 months 1 week ago #40 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Rugby Betting Tips for Week Starting the 8th Jan
Top class thread boys. Great punting!

I'm on Exeter -6 and cheetahs -11 today

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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8 months 1 week ago #41 by southpaw
nice calls guys, didn't have a bet but watched a bit of game and loved how Scarlets play.

Today is simple for me - back the 2 sides who need bonus points the most on the minus. So my main strike for the day:

Exeter -6.5
Wasps -7.5

Double @ just under 5/2.

Twitter @southpawZA
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8 months 1 week ago #42 by bradie82
I am adding more bets on the Exeter game. Forecast is showing a bit rain before the game but dry during. Those 2 teams have the potential to score quite loads so going with:

Over 42.5 points @1.90
Over 4.5 tries @1.86

I found the bonus try bet for Exeter so giving it a go

Over 3.5 tries Exeter @2.25
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8 months 1 week ago - 8 months 1 week ago #43 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Rugby Betting Tips for Week Starting the 8th Jan

Thrasher6 wrote: A great shout by Bad Breath...well thought out,,,and i wish I had a bit more spunk..to really go for it...did alright..but I doff my hat to a well thought out call... and glad you absolutely creamed it... :)


Thanks fella!! Didn't expect them to completely out play Bath, thought they'd edge a close one! Was an absolute pleasure to watch.
As always, regret not putting more down, but great start to the weekend nonetheless.

Oh and a very important point - it's Brad, not Bad.
Bad Breath is a different person entirely :lol: :P :silly:
Last edit: 8 months 1 week ago by Brad Breath. Reason: Grammar error
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8 months 1 week ago - 8 months 1 week ago #44 by southpaw
adding a speculative overs acca for an extra interest on day:

Ulster v La Rochelle - Over 40.5
Exeter Chiefs v Montpellier - Over 42.5
Harlequins v Wasps - Over 53.5
Norhampton v Clermont Auvergne - Over 48.5
Ospreys v Saracens - Over 45.5

20/1 acca.

Twitter @southpawZA
Last edit: 8 months 1 week ago by southpaw.
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8 months 1 week ago #45 by Northerner
Replied by Northerner on topic Rugby Betting Tips for Week Starting the 8th Jan
Morning all,

Agree with Bradie and will be following him on over points and exeter over 2.5 tries. Despite having exeter -6 in two multi bets, I'll be backing Nadolo to score @7/5 anytime, because at that price it would be rude not to!

The two multi's (placed much earlier in the week) are:
Exeter, Saracens, Leinster and Castres all to win @ 17/10
Castres -6, Leinster -15, Exeter -6 @ 6/1
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8 months 1 week ago #46 by bradie82
Following Northerner on Nadolo - any odd above 2 are value with Nadolo :D

Nadolo anytime @ 2.20
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8 months 1 week ago - 8 months 1 week ago #47 by bradie82
Few berts on the worcester vs Connacht game.

Connacht brings a strong squad and so far has been part of high scoring games. Worcester is a team known for open games and this is what I expect today with a cloudy and dry weather.

Connacht over 3.5 tries @2.37
Connacht over 25.5 @ 1.83
Over 5.5 tries @1.72
Last edit: 8 months 1 week ago by bradie82.

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8 months 1 week ago #48 by coil
Have gone under 40.5 in the ulster game , had to wait for pictures , hope it's a dog fight

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8 months 1 week ago #49 by shaft
It's a beautiful day in the Bay and I can't see anything other than a game of touch between the Kings and Cheetahs. Gone over 57.5 at SB

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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8 months 1 week ago #50 by coil
did my balls , huge bet on exeter under 45.5 , 7-0 at the break and counted the cash , died in final minutes which seems the normal for me :sick:

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