Super Rugby 2018 outrights betting thread

I need some sanity after today and starting to think ahead of Super Rugby.

I'd seen a comment from a few lads about Lions being 3rd favourites and agree, absolutely shocking odds for outright.

I've not seen any odds but quite like Rebels for Aus conference.

Sharks would be my pick for SA conference, seen some 11/2 in UK.

NZ conference competitive as usual.

I'm waiting for my annual whatsapp from Brent where we agree that the Blues look amazing on paper and are smashing it pre-season and we waste our traditional couple units on them to lift the trophy.

Thoughts welcome.

Have to agree that as much as it pains me, the Lions will finish closer to the bottom than winning this season. The Ackermann feel good factor is gone, along with Ruan Ackermann, and from the rumours, Jaco Kriel and others set to follow. I have documented my feelings about Swys de Bruin, he just doesn't bring anything close to Ackermann to the table and while I would love to be proven wrong, just does not have the CV to take the Lions further than what Ackermann did.

I agree that the forward momentum in the SA conference belongs to the Sharks, 11/2 for the SA conference is huge. At this stage it is difficult to look past another NZ victory.

Southpaw, have you seen any local bookmakers with Sharks to be the top South African team. I’m not a massive fan of a long term punt. But with the squad they have assembled, and with Rob there, I really think they are the best shout we have to make the semis.

Hi Guys
Some odds are available in Europe on the qualification for the playoffs so sharing them to feed the thread

To qualify
Crusaders 1.03
Hurricanes 1.071
Chiefs 1.1
Highlanders 1.14
Blues 1.4
Lions 1.04
Stormers 1.85
Sharks 2.4
Bulls 3
Jaguares 5
Brumbies 1.9
Waratahs 1.95
Rebels 3
Reds 7
Sunwolves 51

To miss playoffs
Crusaders 11
Hurricanes 8
Chiefs 6.5
Highlanders 4.75
Blues 2.8
Lions 10
Stormers 1.9
Sharks 1.55
Bulls 1.36
Jaguares 1.16
Brumbies 1.85
Waratahs 1.85
Rebels 1.36
Reds 1.083
Sunwolves 1.002

To win Conference
Crusaders 3
Hurricanes 3.5
Chiefs 4.75
Highlanders 5.5
Blues 9
Lions 1.55
Stormers 4.75
Sharks 8
Bulls 9
Jaguares 26
Brumbies 2.6
Waratahs 2.87
Rebels 4
Reds 8
Sunwolves 51


The qualification rules are the following this year

Quarter-final Hosts (4 teams) :
Three Conference winners
Best Wildcard team – (based on tournament points) regardless of Conference

Quarter-final Wildcard spots (4 teams)
Four next best Wildcard teams (based on tournament points) regardless of Conference

I need to look at the fixtures into detail to see who is playing which team away or home as this could have an impact i.e. a South African playing bulls home or away is not the same and could give an advantage to the team playing them home in my opinion.

So far the Blues to miss the quarter final @ 2.8 and based on your comments the Sharks to win conference @ 8 and even Lions to miss the play offs @ 10 look all like good value but looking to see the full squads and fixtures prior to any move

Thanks for that Bradie82, the one I like from that, is the Highlanders to miss out on Playoffs @ 4.75. They have lost Ben Smith to the Canes / Chiefs I think, and Feikato to one of the French sides, Toulon I think. Not sure of the squads but I think they will struggle this year.

But with a good chance of having all 5 NZ teams able to qualify now, they might scrap in.

kt6747 wrote: Thanks for that Bradie82, the one I like from that, is the Highlanders to miss out on Playoffs @ 4.75. They have lost Ben Smith to the Canes / Chiefs I think, and Feikato to one of the French sides, Toulon I think. Not sure of the squads but I think they will struggle this year.

But with a good chance of having all 5 NZ teams able to qualify now, they might scrap in.

Ben Smith not gone anywhere, Fekitoa has indeed moved to Toulon. Personally don't think Fekitoa is much of a loss, never really rated him much.
Think they have decent cover in the centres with Thompson, Faddes and Walden.

Pretty decent article on the NZ squads here:
i.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/super-rugby/98...8-super-rugby-season

Hard to go past the Crusaders, as they've not lost anyone of note.

As a Canes fan I'm hoping Reg Goodes is fit and stays that way, he was missed badly in 2017 especially at scrum time.

Brad Breath wrote:

kt6747 wrote: Thanks for that Bradie82, the one I like from that, is the Highlanders to miss out on Playoffs @ 4.75. They have lost Ben Smith to the Canes / Chiefs I think, and Feikato to one of the French sides, Toulon I think. Not sure of the squads but I think they will struggle this year.

But with a good chance of having all 5 NZ teams able to qualify now, they might scrap in.

Ben Smith not gone anywhere, Fekitoa has indeed moved to Toulon. Personally don't think Fekitoa is much of a loss, never really rated him much.
Think they have decent cover in the centres with Thompson, Faddes and Walden.

Pretty decent article on the NZ squads here:
i.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/super-rugby/98...8-super-rugby-season

Hard to go past the Crusaders, as they've not lost anyone of note.

As a Canes fan I'm hoping Reg Goodes is fit and stays that way, he was missed badly in 2017 especially at scrum time.

Hi Brad

Okay thanks for that, could have sworn I remembered before he went on his sabbatical they said he was moving to another of the franchises at that point.

Sorry for the wrong information

Looking at the Blues squad and the departures of West and Francis which leave only Black and Gatland at fly half position (am I missing another one), isn’t it a bit weak for Super Rugby? I know with Pulu and the backline around it might be easier but this is the weakest pair of halves in the New Zealand conference for sure and probably one of the weakest in the whole Super Rugby?
The Blues not to qualify @ 2.80 is then a good value in my opinion

bradie82 wrote: Looking at the Blues squad and the departures of West and Francis which leave only Black and Gatland at fly half position (am I missing another one), isn’t it a bit weak for Super Rugby? I know with Pulu and the backline around it might be easier but this is the weakest pair of halves in the New Zealand conference for sure and probably one of the weakest in the whole Super Rugby?
The Blues not to qualify @ 2.80 is then a good value in my opinion

I beleive Black out for season with bad injury, and they signed Dan Kirkpatrick as cover from a French D2 side.

I just looked at their squad and remember seeing Stephen Perofeta in MitreCup, he could end up as better Blues 10 option, looks a decent talent @ 20yrs old.

I actually think it's a bit of a blessing in disguise that Otere Black is out. He is a stable and proven player at super rugby level but it also seems as though he has plateaued as just that rather than kick on to be a true x-factor sort of player.

Blues also have Perofeta who is a massive talent. Both he and Gatland had great Mitre 10 cup campaigns and Perofeta also had a couple of games for the blues last year (inc vs Lions)

Billy Guyton was the primary back up 9 last year and he was another journeyman player who can fill in but doesn't bring game changing qualities to the table. The primary backup 9 this year will be Sam Nock who has been touted as a premier talent (NZ Schools & U20s) and had a great campaign for Northland in Mitre 10 cup. He will bring x factor off the bench.

Chiefs have a stacked pack with an absolute plethora of loosies but got to feel TKB & Cruden are massive losses.

Colin Cooper is a bad coach and he sounds determined to slot D-Mac at 10 when I believe it is pretty clear he is best at 15. If Weber doesn't return to his 2016 form or gets injured again there is no replacement 9 and things will get very ugly. The back 3 will also be missing Lowe this year and whilst it still looks good I'm just not sure it's as good as the other NZ teams.

Colin Cooper has coached some of the most talented teams in NZ (early 2000s Canes and Taranaki in recent years) and has only come up with one title, he has the Blackadder gene however I suppose this doesn't affect regular season as much as playoffs.

But gun to my head I'm going to say Chiefs are the weak link in NZ this year.

Blues in the past two years have lost to NZ teams by margins of 15, 4, 6, 5, 10, 15 (red card), 4, 9, 6, 4, and they have one win and a draw. They are really, really close.

I like the Rebels shout, they are loaded with talent now and Wessels is a good coach who has brought in a ton of Force plays which is good for continuity. However I feel all Aus teams except for Reds have improved a lot.

Brumbies pack was light years ahead of the other Aus packs last year and now they had Richie Arnold, Pocock and Naisarani to the mix. Lealifano back from his cancer square and they've also added Chance Peni out wide. Still going to be a forward oriented team but these additions are quality.

Tahs get Beale back which is massive, we saw what an impact he had for the Wallabies. Foketi from Bay of Plent and Curtis Rona are also solid additions, their backline is great but the pack looks very unbalanced and weak. Should be very good attacking team and poor defensive team (same as last year).

Overall I feel the Aus conference has taken a massive step forward with the axing of the Force but looking at the SA teams I feel not much has changed so I would look for Aus teams to surpass the SA teams this year and be a lot more competitive with the NZ teams.

Sunwolves also look a much improved unit. They've brought in some solid front rowers in Craig Millar, Ruan Smith, Hencus van Wyk and Jaba Bregvadze (49 caps for Georgia). Yamada and Leitch huge inclusions as well as Grant Hattingh, Wimpie van der Walt, Hayden Parker, Michael Little, Lomano Lemeki and Robbie Robinson who are also solid players. Jamie Joseph is now the full time coach which is also a big boost. They should be very respectable in a lot of games.

Jeez Lions as short as 11/20 to win the SA Conference in places - cant think ANYONE would be willing to take those odds.

I'm not quite sure who of the SA sides should get the nod though...
Sharks 7/1 - Some quality in their squad and pretty settled side
Stormers 4/1 - Can blow hot and cold but when they get on a run they can go far
Bulls 10/1 - Possibly some value here, does anyone know the status of Pollard?

Couch Critic wrote: Jeez Lions as short as 11/20 to win the SA Conference in places - cant think ANYONE would be willing to take those odds.

I'm not quite sure who of the SA sides should get the nod though...
Sharks 7/1 - Some quality in their squad and pretty settled side
Stormers 4/1 - Can blow hot and cold but when they get on a run they can go far
Bulls 10/1 - Possibly some value here, does anyone know the status of Pollard?

Will be having main strike on Sharks and cover on the Stormers , they can have evens Lions from me in bucket loads (B)

My thoughts exactly!

where can i get the Sharks 7/1 lads? Was my early fancy but not had chance to search around.

Backline going to fire this year with some Muir magic on the coaching ranks.

southpaw wrote: where can i get the Sharks 7/1 lads? Was my early fancy but not had chance to search around.

Backline going to fire this year with some Muir magic on the coaching ranks.

Too late She cried
Was at Sunbet for two weeks but shortened to 6/1 earlier today.

The Vann wrote:

southpaw wrote: where can i get the Sharks 7/1 lads? Was my early fancy but not had chance to search around.

Backline going to fire this year with some Muir magic on the coaching ranks.

Too late She cried
Was at Sunbet for two weeks but shortened to 6/1 earlier today.

never too late if one still perceives it as value. Sharks 6/1 taken. (B)

WSB still offering 7/1

conference win treble:

Sharks
Brumbies
Hurricanes

around 50/1 depending on bookie.

Any insight on the Sharks love? I'd have thought the loss of Reinach would be quite significant. Are there young recruits very good?


Lions have retained 95% of their squad, Ackers is gone but he laid a great foundation. Do you think the gap will close that much without him?

davopnz wrote: Lions have retained 95% of their squad, Ackers is gone but he laid a great foundation. Do you think the gap will close that much without him?

Absolutely.

Whilst not comparing apples with apples, the Lions Currie Cup campaign was dismal. They appeared disjointed and struggled. This in contrast to previous seasons where it was evident that although the squad was weaker than the Super Rugby squad, the spirit was there. I put this squarely at the feet of the coach and his staff. I'm not seeing players run through walls as they might have for Ackermann.

My opinion. I hope that I am proven very wrong but my money is down and it doesn't involve the Lions.

davopnz wrote: Any insight on the Sharks love? I'd have thought the loss of Reinach would be quite significant. Are there young recruits very good?


Lions have retained 95% of their squad, Ackers is gone but he laid a great foundation. Do you think the gap will close that much without him?

I think the fact that the bookies had them so short for a start already had me ( and others ) looking elsewhere . Simply put at 11/20 and 4/1 and better the rest one has to oppose those odds on principle alone.

On the coaching side I do believe they could struggle somewhat and could become a more inconsistent especially at home . My money is on the Sharks at 11/2 for bigs and I'll be looking at covering with the Stormers .

I would actually say Lions were great value if not for the question mark of how they perform without Ackers.

I see Louis Schreuder is out a month, and Jean-Luc du Preez is out until March whilst Coenie Oosthuizen is out for most of the season...those all seem quite significant injuries.

Will Claasens start at 9 or is one of their young recruits very good?

davopnz wrote: I would actually say Lions were great value if not for the question mark of how they perform without Ackers.

I see Louis Schreuder is out a month, and Jean-Luc du Preez is out until March whilst Coenie Oosthuizen is out for most of the season...those all seem quite significant injuries.

Will Claasens start at 9 or is one of their young recruits very good?

Not going to join the Lions Sharks debate but with regards to the Sharks number 9, Cameron Wright will probably start after a stint overseas, heard he's come back a very good player.