Super Rugby Week 1, Pro 14 + other rugby

All over the Sharks +8.5

hanrick wrote: All over the Sharks +8.5

why ?

thank god Super Rugby has arrived. Ever since the end of Nov after SH/NH internationals i have steadily leaked on Aviva, CHampions Cup and now 6 nations. I've kept stakes on small side compared to Super Rugby or Currie Cup standards as it's not my main focus, but i'm fairly sure i've lost every weekend i've got involved in the last 2 months, and the last 2 weekends despite limited interest have been poor for me.

Nonetheless, looking to get properly back on the bike, more so next week when full Super Rugby fixtures out, cannot wait.

I'm on SHARKS + this weekend and even a small nibble the win around 11/4.

Are the Du Preez twins available for the first game vs the Lions, see they didn't play in either warm up game? Fancy the Sharks too, especially if they are playing.

Stoossy wrote:

hanrick wrote: All over the Sharks +8.5

why ?

Because I expect the Sharks to win the game.

Also so happy Super Rugby is starting. Been involved in the cricket the last few months and its been a disaster.

All over the Sharks - have taken them on the plus and some on the outright win.

I just think with Ackerman gone and a bunch of key guys leaving they are a bit thin. Although the CC took place a while back you could see from that squad that the Lions don't match up anymore. The Lions only made the play-offs as the Cheetahs had been away and really should have finished 5th / 6th.

Being from the UK my knowledge of Super Rugby is not as strong as the Aviva, Pro14 etc, but got into it last year and enjoyed watching it so will be doing so again this year, and will look to the forum for guidance throughout!

Have also gone for Sharks, managed to get +9

if anyone sees any SA bookies price up top tournament tryscorer please post here.

Seen some big looking odds with UK firms:

Wes Goosen 90/1
Mapimpi 90/1
Gelant 90/1

At this stage my money would be on Julian Savea around 22/1, expecting a much better season than last year.

With the 6 nations taking a break this weekend I see that

Ireland will regroup for a two-day training camp on Tuesday, although a number of the squad have been released back to their provinces ahead of this weekend's PRO14 action.

Anybody with an update on which players were released? Could have an impact on a few games this weekend.

Cettas wrote: With the 6 nations taking a break this weekend I see that

Ireland will regroup for a two-day training camp on Tuesday, although a number of the squad have been released back to their provinces ahead of this weekend's PRO14 action.

Anybody with an update on which players were released? Could have an impact on a few games this weekend.

I believe the players are: Rory Scannell, Ian Keatley, Jordan Larmour, Tommy O'Donnell, Luke McGrath, Sean Cronin, Jordi Murphy, and Garry Ringrose.

Sourced via Twitter, which I have somewhat reluctantly started using. Seems to be quite useful in fairness though

Jacques Brunel has swung the axe brutally, on the 8 French players involved in night out in Edinburgh following their loss to Scotland.

Out: Belleau, Danty, Iturria, Lamerat,Lambey,Lapandry,Macalou,Picamoles, Thomas.
In: Babillot, Bastareaud, Fickou, Galletier, Grosso, Le Roux, R Taofifenua, Trinh Duc

As such think Italy +22 is great value and have jumped on. (The books who have reacted are down to +17)

southpaw wrote: if anyone sees any SA bookies price up top tournament tryscorer please post here.

Seen some big looking odds with UK firms:

Wes Goosen 90/1
Mapimpi 90/1
Gelant 90/1

At this stage my money would be on Julian Savea around 22/1, expecting a much better season than last year.

Have not seen a SA bookie I am able to bet with price up on this market so going with Bet365's prices, but one I really like is Brayden Ennor at 40/1. Saw the Crusaders team for their warm-up game against the Highlanders this weekend. It looks like the best available team and Ennor gets a start ahead of George Bridge. Ennor played for NZ under 20 last year and scored a lot of tries in ITM Cup. At 40/1 I think he's worth a bet and great value.

Taking an early bet on the top 14 even without squad details but Brive at home against Pau is my bet simply because Pau travelled to Australia with 26 players (including Armitage, Slade, Halai, Mowen, Smith, Taylor…) for the Brisbane 10s but been stuck there because of a storm.
They only managed to arrive back home yesterday and with the time zone difference, and missing 2 days of training, this might be slightly complicated to be fully ready for Saturday against a Brive team fighting to avoid relegation and targeting all home game.

Brive @1.50

English Premiership

Newcastle vs Bath

Bath +3.5 handicap.(WSB)

Any opinions on this? As far as I can see , Bath is in good form leading into this contest.

Thanks

I think the Lions have a definite edge in the forwards for the weekend

I agree the Sharks will have their hands full with Van Rooyen, Marx, Dreyer, Fereira, Mostert, Kwagga, Brink and Wazza. Really wish the Sharks would move forward without Keegan and still worried about Thomas at 3.

In the backs it promises to be a good contest.

Bit of a strange bench from Swys - no scrumhalf cover and no specialist flyhalf back-up either.

Agen vs Toulouse Saturday

Toulouse will be without scrum-halves as Dupont and Bezy are both injured - Doussain could cover but with Holmes just recovering, Kolbe could be playing 9 and Doussain 10
Baille is injured, Fickou with the Les Bleus and Meastri suspended.
Agen is fighting to avoid relegation and is strong at home

Agen @1.72

Wies Bang wrote: English Premiership

Newcastle vs Bath

Bath +3.5 handicap.(WSB)

Any opinions on this? As far as I can see , Bath is in good form leading into this contest.

Thanks

I would go for Newcastle on the board rather than Bath handicap I am not taking any bet on that game yet.
Just saw the two squads and while Newcastle welcomes back 2 international Scottish players, Toby Flood and few others, I am not impressed by the Bath starting line.
Moreover, Newcastle has been quite impressive this season at home and has improved compare to previous years.

Glasgow v Cheetahs - Friday

As most of Glasgow's first choice players are still with the National teams and it looks to be a wet affair, I will back the men in orange.

Cheetahs +10.5 @ 1.80

Couch Critic wrote: I agree the Sharks will have their hands full with Van Rooyen, Marx, Dreyer, Fereira, Mostert, Kwagga, Brink and Wazza. Really wish the Sharks would move forward without Keegan and still worried about Thomas at 3.

In the backs it promises to be a good contest.

Bit of a strange bench from Swys - no scrumhalf cover and no specialist flyhalf back-up either.

Sharks could play Keegan Daniel at 3 and Dreyer would still give away 17 scrum penalties, the man is a complete liability so wouldn't be too worried about where Du Toit plays. Agree that the having no scrumhalf or flyhalf cover is an accident waiting to happen and can see the Sharks finishing the much stronger of the teams.

You beat me to it TML. Two very poor tightheads. Would have loved to see TD destroy the Lions scrum from the loosehead side.

Also noticed the lack of 9 and 10 cover for the Lions. Very interesting. I gues Coetzee covers 9 and Cronje 10.

Newcastle dnb x Glasgow dnb @1.98

I already explained why Newcastle. For Glasgow, few players back and I canot see the Cheetahs winning there with cold, rainy and windy forecast

Tomorrow evening's weather forecast from the Met Office for Glasgow is not that bad:
www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/fore...bch#?date=2018-02-16

labrador wrote: Tomorrow evening's weather forecast from the Met Office for Glasgow is not that bad:
www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/fore...bch#?date=2018-02-16

Indeed but all those ones are more pessimist
www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2648579
www.timeanddate.com/weather/uk/glasgow/hourly
www.accuweather.com/en/gb/glasgow/g3-8/h...ecast/328226?hour=42
www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/Scotland/...ow/hour_by_hour.html

Its gonna be windy and very cold for sure - lets see for the rain!! And even without rain, I don'r think Cheetahs stands a chance in Scotland

Yes Andries covering 9 and 10. But also no real 15 cover so just think Swys is taking risks.

Disagree with you lads a bit on Dryer - found to be out of his depth at test level but I reckon very capable at Super Rugby level. Also he is another loosehead (a damn good one at that) who has made the shift so I expect him to improve further this season.

The Sharks need to stay close for the first hour if they are to try and take advantage of a stronger bench in the final quarter. But pre-season training in Durbs is far from running around at altitude so the bench factor could be negated somewhat by a “fitter” Lions team.

Lions 1-12 is starting to look very appealing to me at this stage

Oracle with his mandatory Lions bet. Not even necessary to watch the Lions previews to know what his bet is. Loving both plusses this weekend.

Stormers bench looks incredibly weak? Or maybe i just don't know squad well enough.

southpaw wrote: Stormers bench looks incredibly weak? Or maybe i just don't know squad well enough.

You are correct, very weak.

Cheetahs +9.5
Kings +28.5

double @ just under 5/2

Double for me
Stromers 1-12 onto Lions 1-12

Smalls for the opening round

hanrick wrote: Oracle with his mandatory Lions bet. Not even necessary to watch the Lions previews to know what his bet is. Loving both plusses this weekend.

Thank you @Hanrick, however it must be noted that the handicap is now in favour of Lions, last year I called Lions -15.5 & -17.5 v Sharks it is down 8 or 9 points since those levels, ie the bookies have built in the factors at play, Ackerman gone etc so at -7.5 I have interest, however there is no doubt that at +13.5 or bigger I am all over the Sharks

Surely the Kings can't be worse than last week. I've taken their points over 9.5 @ 17/20

Hi Lads , taken a slow beating the last few weeks on the rugby and hoping the Super Rugby starting this weekend will mean a change in fortune.

First up though and I'll have a small nibble on the Kings plus 29.5 , Osprey's don't have a great team named and it's more of a hopeful bet really.

Also like the Cheetahs a little on the plus 10.5 but only really interest bets.

Tomorrow I'm on the Shark train having also backed them for the conference. The Lion's team looks very good on paper but really hoping that the under performance under the new coaching staff will continue.
Plus 8.5 Sharks.

It's plusses all around as I really like the Jaguars this weekend. They finished really well last season and if they can continue that improvement on the road I think they could even win this.

Plus 8.5 and a nibble on the outright with a view on overs the Jaguars points.

Two anytime scorers for the lions with generous odds:

Marx @ 7/2
Kwagga 11/4

Kwagga will be fresh and fit having been involved in the 7’s, and 7/2 for Marx is too kind to turn down

hanrick wrote: Oracle with his mandatory Lions bet. Not even necessary to watch the Lions previews to know what his bet is. Loving both plusses this weekend.

dont waste all your money on the sharks lions 1-12 @ 15/10

Stoossy wrote:

hanrick wrote: Oracle with his mandatory Lions bet. Not even necessary to watch the Lions previews to know what his bet is. Loving both plusses this weekend.

dont waste all your money on the sharks lions 1-12 @ 15/10

I'm giving the Sharks a real chance of winning, hence the plus

Great stuff tonight Pro 14 Oracle .

Nice call on over 9 points Kings Shaft.

Rogerollo wrote: Great stuff tonight Pro 14 Oracle .

Nice call on over 9 points Kings Shaft.

+

Thank you, I am starting to see a pattern here with the EURO Bookies, they seem to think every team will thump the Kings by 30, that game with Connacht was a sitter too, Cheetahs without Mpimpi seem a little short.

Mapimpi as anytime try scorer is worth the nibble.

I also went with the Sharks and the Jaguares on the handicap. The Sharks bench looks great. The Lions bench with no replacement scrumhalf and flyhalf looks dodgy.

It'll be interesting to see what the Stormers do on defence today. Their outside backs are so small and with Rhule there I can imagine the Jaguares targeting those areas. De Allende is also not the greatest passer or decision maker so even with the fast outside backs it's difficult to imagine that there will be cohesion in the backline.

My views on Swys are well documented and I will oppose the Lions this season and have already had a punt that they will not qualify. Prayer sessions are for church not for Super Rugby and from what I am being told the Lions could start an evangelistical organisation.

I'm all over the -0.5 Sharks at the eye watering price of 28/10. Lions are on a downward path and I expect the Sharks will win this in the second half. The little matter of WSB sponsoring my beloved Lions makes me want to vomit and I will be screaming the Sharks on from the comforts of the box later on without any feelings of guilt. Slimeballs shouldnt be allowed anywhere near a decent team.

Jaguares over 23.5 points onto Sharks over 22.5 points at 26/10. Also on the +8.5 double

Taking a double jags and sharks or at 12/1. On the Sharks plus 8.5 already and now on jag's plus 9.5.

Will be on both away sides in the points market similar to Hanrick

Oh yessss its time!!

Oracle is sticking to his Lions theme as expected, Hanrick has surprised by showing some love for his previously well hated Sharks, Cat smugly looking to oppose Swys, the coiler is locked and loaded for some point bets and South has once again pinned his hopes and aliegence to the Durbanites. The only thing Im missing is a spread shirt buy from BG to make it official - Super Rugby is well and truly back boyzzz!!

All the best everyone. Im keeping it rather low key and just going for Lion 1-12 @15/10. Also Marx FTS @ 16/1

Reckon I will also have a nibble on Kolisi fts in Stormers game.