Super Rugby Wk 2, 6N wk 3, Pro 14 + other rugby

azzman wrote: Hi Gents
Feels like christmas.... o what a weekend awaits!!!! Super Rugby is BACK!!!!!!!

I took BULLS to win SA conferance. 10/1 with hollywood. Just think its great value with the current team they have.
Then took a specilative bet.... 1st stopage in play.... line out.... in every single game. 9/10 per game. Then took a couple of yankees too with same kind of bet.
This was a real cash machine last season.
Then im on Rebels -5.5, on to Waratahs -9.5... just a shade above 5/2.

Sorry Waratahs is minus 7.5

Evening all,

First time post but I intend to stick around and throw in my opinions. I watch a hell of a lot of Super Rugby and punt it every weekend pretty successfully. Not too interested in the handicaps as I feel that the bookies usually have a very accurate read on those. I tend to multi up on the shorter prices and go heavy on an even money treble for example.

This weekend I have Highlanders, Lions, Hurricanes paying 0.96/1 with 365

I am for my sins, an avid follower of all things Auckland Blues. Looking at the teams for this week my major concern is their pack, you can have 6 Reiko Ioanes in the back line but if you have no platform you're going nowhere. 11 injuries going into day 1, that's some pre-season on the dunes.

Fairly uninspiring front row, although reasonably experienced. Parsons would surely be in Europe by now, but it's likely nobody wants him. Very uninspiring locks, I'm very disappointed to see Tuipulotu only on the bench, C-T / Scrafton are workmanlike but lightweight and lack the bulk to penetrate at this level (as seen last season). Huge issue in the back row missing 4 regulars, was really looking forward to seeing Papalii after his performance in the 10s, but even he is injured. Akira Ioane isn't the kind of guy to be taking on extra workload either... can see the more experienced Highlanders securing some fairly routine set piece front foot ball in comparison, and they don't lack for finishers in their backs.

Interesting to see how Gatland handles the dreaded 10 jersey, third choice 5/8... and I don't particularly rate the two in front of him. Think he will be a no frills steady Eddie, which may keep it close but come up short against Lima, who usually enjoys himself under the roof... as you can probably tell, I don't rate many of our players, and the same goes for Duffie / Collins. Lightweight and have zero X factor.

One thing I can guarantee you all. Tevita Li will score against his old team, just like all the other ex Blues boys do when they go and improve somewhere else haha!

Lions are a penalty kick at home to the Jags who will need to improve on their 50% tackle success rate last week to get within 20 points.

A little less convinced by the Hurricanes having seen their lineup, but if it gets squeaky Barrett is on the bench to get us all out of the sticky stuff. Still think the NZ intensity and offloading game will be far too much for the Bulls.

Didn't particularly want to get stuck into anything else, watching brief on the Aussie teams who could be anything at this stage. Although I'd expect the Tahs to win.

Feel free to convince me otherwise about the Blues, and if anyone wants to tip me over the edge about England at Murrayfield I may well add that in to make a 4 fold!

Good luck to all!

P.S - Twitter handle @iansmith10 - Leave me yours to add for Super Rugby/6 Nations

Just one tryscorer bet for me in the Rebels v Reds game, Higginbotham at 5/1 with Betfair Sportsbook.

Without wishing to bore anyone rigid with my approach to scorer betting, my starting point is to use the spreads to identify potentially value fixed odds bets. This is one such bet, with the spreads implying he shouldn't quite be 4/1, let alone a point longer. I was happy to back him on that basis but a look at his Super Rugby stats supports the view he's no 5/1 shot (4 in 13, 5 in 16 and 4 in 15 across his last 3 seasons).

A good post from Shaft about being careful.....I certainly ain't going to preach here because I ain't no saint...but be selective...you can't back everything and win..(maybe short term but not long term...) there's another set of fixtures next week.....
Anyway...I am in the industry (trading) for the last 30 years and I see good and bad players...and it ain't easy to win.

Only 7 bets really that stand out as bets I would follow this weekend from shrewdies..both codes....

Gloucester -1
Montpellier -17
Worcester o/r 4/5
Wales +11
Crusaders -6.5

Warrington 5/6 (backed down from 5/4...probably the most sustained gamble all weekend)
Wakefield 4/5
Salford -6

We all know the score here....if I am selective then these are the bets I will have....but there is simply too much going on for me...and many of us...not to somehow get involved in many other bets...invariably beer will play a part!!
Anyway interesting to see how these pan out

Good to see more new faces and opinions

Looks like I might have missed the boat on 5/1 about Italy winning the race to 10 points; 9/2 best now. Think I'll sit that one out unless the market moves the other way again. Nothing making too much appeal in the tryscorer markest, 6/1 Parisse with Boyles coming closest.

One bet I have added is 2.18 for 1st try 13 minutes or later, with 888. Surely that should be evens or less? The spread firms go 16-19 for what it's worth.

Not impossible we might see a try before the clock hits 13:00 but not an odds on shot in my opinion.

Brilliant to see the forum firing and great to see some first time posters, welcome lads!

My main bets this weekend are on the Six Nations. I've just watched the Oracle's previews and I appear to be opposing all of his plays

As posted last week got on Italy +22 before the line moved, following Brunel dropping 8 of the squad. (Including Teddy Thomas, who has scored all of France's tries in the tournament).
Just can't see the French being very cohesive - not a word I'd associate with a settled French team in recent years, yet alone one with a number of changes.

Got Wales +12 at the start of last week - I think its perhaps the best bet of the weekend. I note it has drifted into + 7 or +8 now, largely off the back of Furlong & Henderson being ruled out.
Also got some Wales to win @ 5.3, I think they have a real chance to do a number on the Irish.

Oracle do you genuinely think the Jocks will win the tournament?! Trust you've climbed into some of the outright if so, which is as much as 67/1
Personally think England -6 is great value. Agree they haven't set the world on fire in an attacking sense, but I firmly believe their pack will have far too much power for the Scots - after Ford and Farrell put them in the right areas of the park.
I can see a comfortable victory for the English of perhaps 10 - 15 points.

No huge punts on Super Rugby just yet, but I have had a small go on the Canes -13 @ evens.
Appear to me in the minority with this, but just feel its a good time for them to be playing the Bulls - fresh and not travel weary.

Also gone with Highlanders win by 11-20. More of a hunch than anything and a bit speculative, especially when you look at previous winning margins. (Highlanders have won their last 5 home games vs the Blues by 3, 10, 8, 6, & 4 points).

Best of luck gentlemen!!!

Morning lads
Just a quick info before I disappear for the whole week end
One of my friend in Toulon just told me that the squad going to La Rochelle will be quite young and few players will be missing : Bastareaud, Taofifenua, Suta, Gorgo, Rebaddj, Fekitoa, Habana, Tuisova, ... so few youngsters included instead while la Rochelle will surely have the strongest squad available and at home, where they have not lost in Top14 for ages so I am going with La Rochelle HT/FT @ 1.70

(B) Super rugby

I think the highlanders should take their opener no problem, , agree with Ian's comments that the blues pack looks weak. Nz derbies typically close though so the 1-12 certainly a good option but have liked the previous thoughts on the rebels so going with a double tonight. Highlanders + Rebels @ 1.96

Also Highlanders over 3.5 tries at 1.75 seems pretty solid

Brad Breath wrote: Brilliant to see the forum firing and great to see some first time posters, welcome lads!

My main bets this weekend are on the Six Nations. I've just watched the Oracle's previews and I appear to be opposing all of his plays

As posted last week got on Italy +22 before the line moved, following Brunel dropping 8 of the squad. (Including Teddy Thomas, who has scored all of France's tries in the tournament).
Just can't see the French being very cohesive - not a word I'd associate with a settled French team in recent years, yet alone one with a number of changes.

Got Wales +12 at the start of last week - I think its perhaps the best bet of the weekend. I note it has drifted into + 7 or +8 now, largely off the back of Furlong & Henderson being ruled out.
Also got some Wales to win @ 5.3, I think they have a real chance to do a number on the Irish.

Oracle do you genuinely think the Jocks will win the tournament?! Trust you've climbed into some of the outright if so, which is as much as 67/1
Personally think England -6 is great value. Agree they haven't set the world on fire in an attacking sense, but I firmly believe their pack will have far too much power for the Scots - after Ford and Farrell put them in the right areas of the park.
I can see a comfortable victory for the English of perhaps 10 - 15 points.

No huge punts on Super Rugby just yet, but I have had a small go on the Canes -13 @ evens.
Appear to me in the minority with this, but just feel its a good time for them to be playing the Bulls - fresh and not travel weary.

Also gone with Highlanders win by 11-20. More of a hunch than anything and a bit speculative, especially when you look at previous winning margins. (Highlanders have won their last 5 home games vs the Blues by 3, 10, 8, 6, & 4 points).

Best of luck gentlemen!!!

Shot @Bad Breath Yip I do believe they are runners to win the tournament, obviously they need to win the game v England and beat Ireland, so yes at 66/1 its about right. I cannot see England beating them.

And welcome to all of the new guys, I second the comment and say its great to see so many new forum users!!

Thank you again to both Brent & Chris for such a great website and platform!!

Main bet Blues over 22.5 points at evens and smaller bet Blues +7.5 at 9/10. Can't have Aaron Mauger

Last year the Blues had a habit of being competitive in the 1st half (leading or being close at half time only to fall away in the 2nd half). So currently looking at the Blues +3.5 halftime points start for a couple of units, & maybe a little bit of the Blues/Highlanders for the half/full-time double, cheers.

Agreed having a stab at both.... Nice to see Super rugby back. Hope you all have a profitable season!

If I were the Cheetahs watching this game right now, I'd be really happy I got kicked out of super rugby so I didn't have to play any New Zealand teams. Scary quality.

Wow, wow, wow! How good was the quality of that 1st half?! Supperrugby just the best competition in the world!

Nice to bank Blues overs before halftime, now hope they can hold on to bank the +7.5.

Another observation, the new ruck laws favours the team with possession massively. Basically no chance of getting a turnover with your hands. Need to counter ruck. Will favour the more skillful teams. Will also result in higher scoring games, I reckon. No need to play a fetcher anymore.

Rebels over 27.5 points at 8/10 and Rebels -3.5 at 17/20, taken earlier in the week.

hanrick wrote: Another observation, the new ruck laws favours the team with possession massively. Basically no chance of getting a turnover with your hands. Need to counter ruck. Will favour the more skillful teams. Will also result in higher scoring games, I reckon. No need to play a fetcher anymore.

That's for sure, was thinking the same thing regarding higher scoring games. In defense you're basically now hoping the other team turns it over themselves somehow rather than you actually winning the breakdown to turn it over. Good for attacking rugby but kind of a shame if that aspect of the game completely disappears, will be interesting to see how it goes

Iceman wrote: Last year the Blues had a habit of being competitive in the 1st half (leading or being close at half time only to fall away in the 2nd half). So currently looking at the Blues +3.5 halftime points start for a couple of units, & maybe a little bit of the Blues/Highlanders for the half/full-time double, cheers.

Great calls on both Iceman (B)

Taking the Rebels 1-12. I think with Brad Thorn's coaching the Reds wont let the Rebels walk all over them.

Under 46.5 points in play. Reds useless but going to be tricky for the Rebels with their scrum walking backwards

Some terrific calls so far this weekend and a welcome to all the new guys . This really is becoming an astute site and am worried the bookies shall be benefitting from all the excellent information gathered here grrrr.
Non the less, didn't have a bet in this match and now with the red card it should ensure a decent Rabble win.
After initially leaning towards the French much later tonight I think I'll go for under 48.5 points total.
Also looking for any thought with the U20's and 6 Nation fanny rugby too

Great calls lads. Missed what sounded like a cracker, stuck at an airport travelling.

My only bet today rebels -4.5 as posted earlier in week, looking to get more involved tomorrow when less hectic.

Closed the points bet for a loss after the red card. Over 3.5 second half tries @6/5 at sportingbet looks like a gift to me.

This game is a shambles. I think the tip tackle was more worthy of a red than the high tackle but either way the Rebels still struggling against 13 is painful to watch

The Missing Link wrote: Closed the points bet for a loss after the red card. Over 3.5 second half tries @6/5 at sportingbet looks like a gift to me.

Also taking over 67.5 points at halftime. No one will be kicking for poles now and those 40 points in the first half were only scored after the 20th minute. Think the line could be well off.

Both these two teams will get smashed by NZ and SA teams. Rebels have been very poor.

hanrick wrote: Both these two teams will get smashed by NZ and SA teams. Rebels have been very poor.

Agreed, cannot believe the points didn't come through. Thanking my lucky stars there were 4 tries in that half or it would've been expensive. Rebels very underwhelming and both teams will have a long season.

coil wrote: Some terrific calls so far this weekend and a welcome to all the new guys . This really is becoming an astute site and am worried the bookies shall be benefitting from all the excellent information gathered here grrrr.
Non the less, didn't have a bet in this match and now with the red card it should ensure a decent Rabble win.
After initially leaning towards the French much later tonight I think I'll go for under 48.5 points total.
Also looking for any thought with the U20's and 6 Nation fanny rugby too

Scotland Women -38 looks a bet to me....they only lost by 26 to the French and they have the same team. They are home and will be buzzing to beat an English side that has made many changes....with a view to the decider against the French next. Yes England are miles ahead of them but with the crowd behind them and England maybe going through the motions, the Scots could well cover the line.

BillyBonds wrote: The Blues +7 at evens against the Highlanders. Hoping for a tight enough opener for these sides and the Blues have covered this line in five of their last six previous meetings. The backline of the Blues can cause serious damage and if their pack can hold their own for a prolonged period, they should be given the platform to do so. (3.5 units)

Over 51.5 points at 5/6 in the Rebels – Reds game. Originally quite liked the Rebels on the minus but can see this being a high scoring game. Over the last eight games, there has been an average of just under 55 points per game with this line being covered in six of the eight games. (5 units)

Always nice when you think you’ve lost right on the line (in regards to the Blues) only to find out you had the 7.5 not 7!

Italy +17 at evens. Think the line should be smaller than it is all things considered and happy to take this. (3 units)

Sunwolves +18 at 10/11. Again had this priced lower and quite fancy Jamie Joseph to have them drilled enough to keep within. (5 units)

3 Superleague games tonight and I've had a look at the tryscorer markets. I thought it was going to be one of those frustrating occasions when you study 3 games only to arrive at the "no bet" conclusion but 3 bets popped their head above the parapet in the Salford v Hull KR game.

All anytime tryscorers; Evalds at evens with 365 and others, Sau at 7/4 with Fred and Welham at 7/4 with Lads (latter fine at 13/8 if you don't have the benefit of a priceboost).

Having effectively dutched the 3 of them, I'll need two for a profit but that's only like buying hotshots where you need 2 or 3 tries from the named players to get in front. Speaking of which, those 3 plus O'Brien make up the hotshots and may be a little cheap at 55 with SPIN. I'll settle for backing just the three of them via the fixed odds route.

Thrasher6 wrote: Scotland Women -38 looks a bet to me....they only lost by 26 to the French and they have the same team. They are home and will be buzzing to beat an English side that has made many changes....with a view to the decider against the French next. Yes England are miles ahead of them but with the crowd behind them and England maybe going through the motions, the Scots could well cover the line.

You've drawn my attention to this game and I've had a think about it. The spread firms are happy to quote England supremacy at 41-44 and it's fair to say that Scotland tend to struggle to score any points against England or France in this competition. That said, I always like to find a way to side with massive underdogs, at least in terms of them doing slightly better than expected. 2 low risk bets for me:

Buy Scotland multi-points at 9 with Spreadex (1st half points multiplied by 2nd half points) and buy their tryscorer shirt numbers at 10 with SPIN. A try either side of the break should do the job! 19 points risked if they get shut out yet again.

harry_rag wrote: 1st a question, then some bets! Bit cheeky asking you to give me all your secrets in my second post but here goes!

What sites are best for player tryscorer stats in Super Rugby? I generally use Statbunker but they don't display stats in the same way for Super Rugby as they do for the NH competitions. I like a list of all the players for the club showing games played and tries scored, ideally sorted in order of tries scored, that I can click on to see the details for an individual player. I've just been using Fox Sports and it's not bad though I had to navigate between team squad stats and individual players rather than being able to click on the player's name.

In terms of the bets:

Highlanders v Blues: Duffie to score a try at 9/4 and to score 2 or more at 14/1 (both Skybet) and buy his try minutes at 16 with SPIN. Akira Ioane to score a try at 7/2 with Boyles and buy his try minutes at 11 with SPIN.

I've gone for a split fixed odds/spread approach on both as the prices appear to offer similar value. Duffie scored 5 tries in 13 appearances last season and managed a brace last season and the season before. Ioane score in 3 of his 8 starts last season as well as in one of his appearances as sub.

Well played regarding Duffie and Akira Ioane!

Cheers. Had a bit of everything today, Duffie scores early so fixed odds would have been the better option, Ioane score twice making spreads the better bet and Higginbotham gets himself sent off early on!

Thanks Brent! Good to know I'm not the only Blues man here.

What a game this morning! Unbelievable stuff... Blues bench wasn't quite up to it in the end and the yellow card killed them. Really impressed with Tuipulotu when he came on! Couple of bounces of the ball go the other way and the Blues clean up... they will smash some teams this season!

Bit of a farce in Melbourne, big Higgo deserved sending off for that haircut alone. The game was barely watchable and I don't take much out of it from a betting point of view moving forward.

Timmy Horan says the Brumbies are fizzing in Japan, hope they get beat haha!

France quotes have come in enough for me to back them. Liked what I saw of them against Ireland and Scotland and even with the players out I'm happy to back them at the current quotes. Have taken France -17.5 at evens and France over 31.5 points at 5/6

Kings over 8.5 points. Nothing from the kings this season to back that up, but 9 points is one consolation try and a bit of luck

Am I the only one concerned about stormers hooker problems. I for one think Samuels is very doggy at hooker n his lineout throwing is very bad. Its for this reason I don't see stormers getting any upper hand of first phase ball. That's enough to tip the scale in favour of tahs for me.

Ive joined you on that

Brent Graham wrote: Taken over 26.5 1st half points in Leinster v Kings game, conditions look decent

Easy game Brent .

On the Eyetalians plus 8.5 at ht , hoping they are as dirty and filthy as the French the first half and it's tighter than a ducks arse .

Brent Graham wrote: Taken over 26.5 1st half points in Leinster v Kings game, conditions look decent

You should be paid double for that

Thrasher6 wrote:

coil wrote: Some terrific calls so far this weekend and a welcome to all the new guys . This really is becoming an astute site and am worried the bookies shall be benefitting from all the excellent information gathered here grrrr.
Non the less, didn't have a bet in this match and now with the red card it should ensure a decent Rabble win.
After initially leaning towards the French much later tonight I think I'll go for under 48.5 points total.
Also looking for any thought with the U20's and 6 Nation fanny rugby too

Scotland Women -38 looks a bet to me....they only lost by 26 to the French and they have the same team. They are home and will be buzzing to beat an English side that has made many changes....with a view to the decider against the French next. Yes England are miles ahead of them but with the crowd behind them and England maybe going through the motions, the Scots could well cover the line.

Thanks for the confidence Thrasher , I had a nibble on the Scottish fanny

Good day 1, trying following on day 2-

Brumbies -15.5, Chiefs +8.5. Double @ 2/1.
Read that Sunwolves had just a few weeks together as squad, no warmup games. Despite better coaches than last year this does suggest that despite an okay side on paper they may not be ready.
Crusaders always slow starters and I think the Chiefs will run them close.

Small interest 1st try Rob Valenti 20/1 in 1st game.

I hate the French. Time is up, Italy prop get a yellow card and you get a penalty 5m from the line. My two year old would tell you that you take the scrum. Why would you tap the ball?! Surely these guys don't get paid to make these decisions.

Trust the French......ffs

Neil Andrews always says: "There's three certainties in life. Death, taxes and the French will let you down."

Galant our for Bulls is a big shift for me on a cap I was battling with. He’s arguably their best if not one of 3 best players? I can’t have them tomorrow.

Canes -14.5 @ 9/10