Super Rugby Wk 2, 6N wk 3, Pro 14 + other rugby

Some really tricky caps especially the NZ games, but on early caps my 2 initial picks:

Rebels -4. Had some tough trial games to get prepped for this one, and i feel Reds are a little undercooked based on their pre-season. Reds squad not great at all. Can see Rebels winning by a try+.

Waratahs -7.5. The Stormers depth a real concern for me, think the Tahs are going to be strong at home all season then poor on road as usual.

Agree with you South on the Rebels vs Reds game.
I reckon Reds will be the weakest Australian team this year and I really like the Rebels squad : the addition of players like Genia, Coleman, Parling or Haylett-Petty combined with Hodge or Mafi and the whole managed by Wessels could be a very good surprise this season after a disappointing 2017 Super Rugby.
The only player unavailable so far is Koroibete and the only worry I have is the friendly game last week against Waratahs that Rebels lost 47-5 but still going with dnb and handicap.

Rebels dnb @1.56
Rebels -3.5 @1.91

I'm off the same opinion bradie, this Reds side will struggle this year big time.

I've seen Reds under 5.5 season wins @ 10/11. I cannot see where they get 6 victories from. To me that's a solid season punt, even if i don't enjoy tieing up funds for that long.

southpaw wrote: I'm off the same opinion bradie, this Reds side will struggle this year big time.

I've seen Reds under 5.5 season wins @ 10/11. I cannot see where they get 6 victories from. To me that's a solid season punt, even if i don't enjoy tieing up funds for that long.

May I ask on which bookie you can find this type of bets as this is very interesting - cheers

Reds have had quite a pre-season! Brad Thorn in as coach, Quade Cooper axed, no re-inforcements from the Western Force, a young side and the Karmichael Hunt debacle ... not the ideal pre-season.

Will Genia is a good signing for the Rebels as is the pommie Geoff Parling along with the others mentioned by Bradie.

Both number 10s are wet behind the ears but think the Rebels take this by 10+

With you boys on the Rabbles -4.5

First post so be (reasonably) gentle with me! I should probably declare that I'm likely to be the most ignorant person on here in respect of Rugby as a sport but that I'm a big fan of it as a betting medium and am gaining an appreciation of the sport in the process. My main market are the tryscorer related ones (e.g. anytime tryscorers and player try minutes and hotshots on the spreads). I'm not sure how much relevance talking about spread bets will have on here but I'm sure I'll get a feel for it.

I've had a look at the France v Italy game and gone in with Italy to be the 1st team to score at 3.15 with Hills (they are a standout 2/1 and I've used my priceboost to push it out a bit more). It just feels like value at more than 2/1 to me, with Italy likely to get stuck in early given France's well publicised woes. In a similar vein, I may be tempted in by Italy to win the race to 10 points at 5/1 or more but I'll wait a while on that one. Both bets more likely to lose than win, but not (in my view) by as much as the odds imply.

I'd have pitched France as around 24 point favourites for this game prior to their Scottish escapades but the line has, unsurprisingly, edged downwards since then. If you gave me a free bet that I could only use on that market I'd take France -17 at evens but the line would have edge down another couple of points before I'd risk real money.

Good evening gents. Finally super rugby Is here. I can see from last weeks punting that the bookies r in for a long few months of losing.

I recently came across a bookie named 1Xbet. Its supposedly an international bookie that also works with Rands. Has anyone here heard of em or used them? Especially guys in sa. They seem to offer pretty decent odds.

bradie82 wrote:

southpaw wrote: I'm off the same opinion bradie, this Reds side will struggle this year big time.

I've seen Reds under 5.5 season wins @ 10/11. I cannot see where they get 6 victories from. To me that's a solid season punt, even if i don't enjoy tieing up funds for that long.

May I ask on which bookie you can find this type of bets as this is very interesting - cheers

Was with Paddy Power. I’m UK based despite most my betting being done with SA bookies. SA is where my biggest bank is so tend to punt there mostly but also have option for UK, helpful especially where I’m heavily limited with several SA firms.

southpaw wrote: Was with Paddy Power. I’m UK based despite most my betting being done with SA bookies. SA is where my biggest bank is so tend to punt there mostly but also have option for UK, helpful especially where I’m heavily limited with several SA firms.

Thanks Southpaw - I ll have a look at PP then but I am limited there (any idea if those bets are available in a PP shop) so guessing a tenner would be the max available for me on this type of outright
Being based in the UK gives you quite a wide range of bookies and the best to me is bet365 (as I play mainly on over tries/points) as it is takes ages to be restricted and you can even remove that restriction after few months. But for a SA punter, you then don’t get access to Varsity Cup and late option on the Currie Cup which could be annoying.

On the Rebels vs Reds topic, here is the Rebels squad that looks strong on paper

Melbourne Rebels: 15 Dane Haylett-Petty, 14 Jack Maddocks, 13 Tom English, 12 Reece Hodge, 11 Sefa Naivalu, 10 Jack Debreczeni, 9 Will Genia, 8 Amanaki Mafi, 7 Angus Cottrell, 6 Lopeti Timani, 5 Adam Coleman (c), 4 5Matt Philip, 3 Jermaine Ainsley, 2 Jordan Uelese, 1 Tetera Faulkner
Replacements: 16 Anaru Rangi, 17 Fereti Sa’aga, 18 Sam Talakai, 19 Sam Jeffries, 20 Ross Haylett-Petty, 21 Michael Ruru, 22 Semisi Tupou, 23 Billy Meakes

C-sa wrote: Good evening gents. Finally super rugby Is here. I can see from last weeks punting that the bookies r in for a long few months of losing.

I recently came across a bookie named 1Xbet. Its supposedly an international bookie that also works with Rands. Has anyone here heard of em or used them? Especially guys in sa. They seem to offer pretty decent odds.

This is a Russian bookmaker – did play with it for a bit before being restricted. Good variety of odds, especially live ( like bet365 as they use the same live betting platform). I know couple of people who had issue with 1X and especially one with 20K he never managed to recover but those are more exceptions I am guessing

France Italy over 4.5 tries 5/6 at Betfair

Rieko Ioane 5/4 anytime

If anyone is looking for free money this Friday, supabets currently has Rebels +3.5 at 0.83. As Oracle Wud say, this is crazy, sum1 needs to be fired...unless I'm missing something???

sebokeng wrote: If anyone is looking for free money this Friday, supabets currently has Rebels +3.5 at 0.83. As Oracle Wud say, this is crazy, sum1 needs to be fired...unless I'm missing something???

This kind of thing, as much as it seems fantastic will get you closed and or limited, it is clearly a mistake and my advice it to call them rather and tell them about it, you do not want to risk an account for one small bet

Thank god the Rugby has started again and thank you one and all for the Good for the game round 1 preview which i based my bet on as i took a multi on both games- both with the plus cap.

Im have taken the Higlanders at home 1-12. I expect the Blues wont got down with out a fight, also so often the kiwi darby games are either side 1-12....should be a good game under the roof.

Im looking at the Rebels 1-12 as well but i may wait till close to the time its kicks off.
At this stage for me it looks like Brumbies, Crusaders,Waratahs,lions and the Hurricanes...haha but dont hold me to it...i may change my mind after more research.

Cheers to Brent, the team and the members... and cheers Oracle for all your insights (B) (B) (B)
Lets get those bookie so and so's!!

Okay gents some thoughts from me for the weekend. First full round and whilst this often means there is a good opportunity to catch the bookies with their pants down I really feel a touch in the dark before seeing everyone in action so I am proceeding with caution in Week 1B.

Highlanders v Blues - Should be a tight Kiwi battle and often the Landers know how to win the close, dirty ones. I'm looking at Highlanders 1-12 for this one.

Rebels v Reds - I have no feeling for what is happening in Aussie country. All the talk is that the Reds will be tripe and the Rebels much improved. The only thing worse than watching Aus rugby is losing money on it; thus a Superbru interest should be enough for me in this one.

Sunwolves Brumbies - Adding a few big alternative plus handicaps into a few multies for the weekend as surely the Wolves should put up a fight in the first game.

Crusaders v Chiefs. Fresh looking team from the Chiefs and strange to see Ngatai at fullback. Crusaders slow out of the blocks at times so wouldn't be the biggest upset to see the new-look Chiefs backline hit the Saders with a sucker punch but home side 1-12 is my call here.

Tahs v Stormers - Watching brief only. The Tahs can be pathetic if the mood hits them.

Lions v Jags - Jag forwards will be tamed by the home side and Swys' backs should start finding their rhythm. Not sure of my betting angle just yet but reckon the Lions could run in a few tries here especially with the 3pm kick-off.

Bulls v Hurricanes - This is the match that intrigues me in a big way! The Michelin men started throwing around the ball in the Currie Cup but this could backfire badly for them against the Canes. The Bulls are only starting to learn their trade as a ball-in-hand team whilst the Hurricanes are experienced masters of this approach. If Mitchell doesnt have his troops focused on physically make things uncomfortable for the visitors upfront the first outing at Loftus could become a bloodbath.
I am a punter who doesn't put much value on historic trends vs opponents but I believe in teams favouring a certain style of opponent... The Hurricanes love nothing more than an opponent who tries to up the pace of the game and run at them. If the Bulls fall into this trap the likes of Laumape, Aso and Barrett off the bench will cut free to devastating effect! I'm expecting tries and points in this one and will look for a suitable punt.

agree re Bulls vs Canes has making of a 52-48 scoreline or something similarly ridiculous. Eagerly awaiting points markets from bookies.

Here in the Uk the line for Bulls vs Hurricanes is 57.5, what do people think of that?

Will focus on points and try markets, but there are a few handicaps I really fancy.

With you guys on the Rebels and managed to grab -3.5 before the line shifted. Dave Wessels worked wonders with the Force last season and I think the Rebels will challenge for the conference win this season.

Like the team the Sunwolves have picked and with Jamie Josephs as coach I think they'll have a good season. I'm a big Robbie Robinson fan, although I'm not sure of him at 10. Would have liked Yu Tamura there. Is he injured or has he left the Sunwolves? I seen Hayden Parker is the back-up 10. Nevertheless, I like the team picked and rate the coach so have taken Sunwolves +19.5

With Oracle on the Bulls. This handicap should be half the current line. Don't rate Ihaia West and think Mitchell would have drilled the Bulls in off season. Have taken Bulls +15.5

My last fancy on the handicaps is in the six nations. With Warren Gatland back, Wales is a whole different team. Ireland have been good, but with Biggar, Williams and Halfpenny back I can't believe the handicap is double figures. I have taken Wales +10.5

Thanks for the above Hanrick , I'm in agreement with all of your selections so far and agree with all reasons !!

I'm also beginning to like the French a little bit and hoping the line might come in a point or possibly two before I launch a few skud missiles into the minus.

I'll also be on The Cheetahs again this weekend and think they will beat the Osprey's .

Northerner wrote: Here in the Uk the line for Bulls vs Hurricanes is 57.5, what do people think of that?

Just noticed it....looks tempting but will wait until one of the Super Rugby punters confirms whether it's a play...

Bulls

15 Warrick Gelant, 14 Travis Ismaiel, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Burger Odendaal (captain), 11 Johnny Kotze, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Andre Warner, 8 Hanro Liebenberg, 7 Thembelani Bholi, 6 Roelof Smit, 5 Lood de Jager, 4 RG Snyman, 3 Frans van Wyk, 2 Jaco Visagie, 1 Pierre Schoeman

Substitutes: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Lizo Gqoboka, 18 Conraad van Vuuren, 19 Nic de Jager, 20 Marco van Staden, 21 Embrose Papier, 22 Marnitz Boshoff, 23 Divan Rossouw

Hurricanes

15 Matt Proctor, 14 Julian Savea, 13 Vince Aso, 12 Ngani Laumape, 11 Wes Goosen, 10 Ihaia West, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Gareth Evans, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Brad Shields (captain), 5 Sam Lousi, 4 Vaea Fifita, 3 Ben May, 2 Ricky Ricctelli, 1 Toby Smith

Substitutes: 16 James O'Reilly, 17 Chris Eves, 18 Alex Fidow, 19 Murray Douglas, 20 Blade Thomson, 21 Jamie Booth, 22 Beauden Barrett, 23 Ben Lam

Goodluck to all you Bulls backers!

Waratahs played 7 home matches at home in 2017. Of those, 5 matches had highest scoring half as 2nd half.

0.5U Highlanders 1-12 @ 2.60
1.5U Over 3.5 penalties scored Reebsl vs Reds @ 1.65
0.25U More penalties than tries Rebels @ 5
0.75U Rebels - Pen Converted Before 18 Mins 15 Secs @ 1.86

I can see a win for the Highlanders but thats the only odd I find interesting on that game. The over 52.5 points, 6.5 tries total and 3.5 tries Landers are appealing but not sure at this stage.
On the Rebels vs Reds game, with Hodge and Debreczeni, Rebels should kick quite loads so those 3 odds are good value

Every year we hear pre-season talk on the Bulls and Blues and every year they fall flat.
Might be interested in Bulls +7,5 H/T vs Hurricanes, but seems these NZ teams have this altitude factor worked out.See Crusaders play Lions at Ellis Park again this season.

Gents, keep a level head and don't get carried away with all the rugby on offer this weekend.

The excitement of a full weekend of Super Rugby, 6 Nations, and Pro 14 is getting to me, and I can't wait for the home office tomorrow! Just a pity, as always, that the SA bookies are very slow with points / tries, and I'm struggling to wait for that and not to get involved in the handicaps.

Having said that, I've followed the forum and backed the Rebels, although the line shifted to -5.5 now I still feel they will covered it. I'm also keen on the Bulls / Hurricanes points and tries and found myself looking for Aumua as a ATT, but turns out he got left out of the travelling squad due to conditioning issues. Hopefully the bookies forget a bit about him and we can get some value when he sneaks into the squad again after the tour.

Another area I'll be looking to is the second half points, I did quite with that play last year and will be looking to follow it up.

The Bulls are a 15.5 point underdog at home in the first game of the season ...

- As the Oracle mentioned in his previews, Mitch has changed the mentality in the camp
- Pollard at 10 in a good thing!
- The Canes will be rusty
- 15.5 point start for a home side in the season opener! GOLDEN

27 May 2017
Bulls vs Hurricanes
Cap was Canes -18.5
Half time - Bulls 7 Canes 10 (Which supports Brazil's theory on the Bulls HT+)
Final score - Bulls 20 Canes 34
Could argue that it was a better Canes team and a worse Bulls team last year and the Bulls covered the cap ...

Bulls +15.5 is golden

Also like the Rabbles -4.5 and Cheetahs at 13/10 in the Pro14

I don't get the hype surrounding the Bulls handicap this weekend as I see them catching a hiding, they are useless. I would like to get a bet on the Crusaders going unbeaten this season, but I can't find it anywhere. My all to come is Crusaders -6.5, Rebels -3.5 and England-6.5 for 2 units and then an outright win treble for 5 units.I don't know what the Oracle is smoking, because he still tips Scotland to win the 6 Nations, but i see them finishing 5th or 4th at best.

Agree on the Bulls +15.5, checked the team sheets that played last season and the Bulls definitely look better on paper while the Hurricanes look weaker. Mitchell will also have them ready.

As for the other games I'm sitting out and watching. Can't have the Rebels after they got murdered by the Waratahs in preseason and for me I would've capped the other games within 3 points of where they currently are.

Also Kirchner not at 10 for the Dragons so that's put me off having a go at Edinburgh. Wouldn't bet on the Benetton Connacht game either, both rubbish and think Benetton got a bit lucky last week but were saved but the uselessness that is Kirchner.

Goodluck to all for the season (B)

As mentioned earlier in the thread , much hype is given again to the Bulls and especially the Blues this season , both sides have consistently been the dumbest Super rugby sides in existence !!
I'm not a great Mitchell fan and feel he hasn't quite set the world alight in any of his sides coached . Having said that though I feel there will be some sort of improvement and if thats the case the plus simply has to be backed but possibly for smalls considering the average IQ of the squad

Brent Graham wrote: Guys we are testing a Super Rugby handicap competition this week with prizes from Sportingbet

It takes about 30 seconds and your try to get all 7 handicaps correct - click here to play and let us know what you think

Been so hectic this week I have barely looked at the rugby - that changes tonight

a chance to win for free is always great but it said that i already entered lol

1st a question, then some bets! Bit cheeky asking you to give me all your secrets in my second post but here goes!

What sites are best for player tryscorer stats in Super Rugby? I generally use Statbunker but they don't display stats in the same way for Super Rugby as they do for the NH competitions. I like a list of all the players for the club showing games played and tries scored, ideally sorted in order of tries scored, that I can click on to see the details for an individual player. I've just been using Fox Sports and it's not bad though I had to navigate between team squad stats and individual players rather than being able to click on the player's name.

In terms of the bets:

Highlanders v Blues: Duffie to score a try at 9/4 and to score 2 or more at 14/1 (both Skybet) and buy his try minutes at 16 with SPIN. Akira Ioane to score a try at 7/2 with Boyles and buy his try minutes at 11 with SPIN.

I've gone for a split fixed odds/spread approach on both as the prices appear to offer similar value. Duffie scored 5 tries in 13 appearances last season and managed a brace last season and the season before. Ioane score in 3 of his 8 starts last season as well as in one of his appearances as sub.

The Blues +7 at evens against the Highlanders. Hoping for a tight enough opener for these sides and the Blues have covered this line in five of their last six previous meetings. The backline of the Blues can cause serious damage and if their pack can hold their own for a prolonged period, they should be given the platform to do so. (3.5 units)

Over 51.5 points at 5/6 in the Rebels – Reds game. Originally quite liked the Rebels on the minus but can see this being a high scoring game. Over the last eight games, there has been an average of just under 55 points per game with this line being covered in six of the eight games. (5 units)

I agree 100% with the Bulls cap being value! More than 2 converted tries at altitude after a trip from NZ, must be worth a few units. Canes are slow starters and Bulls will want to improve from their dismall 2017 season!

Hi Gents
Feels like christmas.... o what a weekend awaits!!!! Super Rugby is BACK!!!!!!!

I took BULLS to win SA conferance. 10/1 with hollywood. Just think its great value with the current team they have.
Then took a specilative bet.... 1st stopage in play.... line out.... in every single game. 9/10 per game. Then took a couple of yankees too with same kind of bet.
This was a real cash machine last season.
Then im on Rebels -5.5, on to Waratahs -9.5... just a shade above 5/2.