Varsity Cup Round 5

Current Standings:
www.supersport.com/rugby/varsity-cup/logs

First caps already out at WSB for next week:

Wits (+27.5) v Maties
Ikeys (+8.5) v Tuks
Madibaz (+16.5) v NWU
Shimlas (-9.5) v UJ

A few interesting games this week... Last year's champions (Tuks) still searching for their first win.

To cut a long story short, based on last year I think CPUT have a decent chance vs TUT tomorrow in the varsity shield. Don't know how different the teams are but CPUT won the game by over 15 points last year and that's enough for me to have a nibble. CPUT were docked points for a couple ineligible players last year in a few games but they actually won 4 out of 6 games last season and only lost their two games by 3 and 5 points. Maybe I'm missing something but I'll take my chances.

Taking CPUT +11.5 and nibble at CPUT win @15/4.

See the UWC vs UKZN is televised at 7pm. Can see UWC hammering them but will stay away and just enjoy the game. if you watch, keep an eye on the back 3 for UWC, they are electric. Dillion leyds younger brother is the fullback I'm told.

See varsity shield have 3 point conversions and 2 point penalties. Not great to hear then that CPUT took 3 shots at goal under those laws which is why they losing 11-13 at halftime. Under the usual rules they'd be 14-12 up but its really poor decision making and makes me worry about my bet and its chances. Anyway still in it but not confident after hearing about that and TUT's pushover scrum try.

The Missing Link wrote: See varsity shield have 3 point conversions and 2 point penalties. Not great to hear then that CPUT took 3 shots at goal under those laws which is why they losing 11-13 at halftime. Under the usual rules they'd be 14-12 up but its really poor decision making and makes me worry about my bet and its chances. Anyway still in it but not confident after hearing about that and TUT's pushover scrum try.

TUT win 21-18 so at least the handicap comes in nicely. 2 tries and 4 penalties usually beats 3 tries but not under this scoring system so quite disappointing to miss out on a big payday but we live to fight another day. UWC will walk the varsity shield easier than Maties will walk the varsity cup, they have some really good players and play a great brand of rugby.

Will give some thoughts on the varsity cup in the next day or two when more bookies come out with odds. Fancy one of the matches a bit.

Most bookies out and quite a few differences in the lines which is interesting. Wasn't too interested in the initial lines but some now look good enough to have a small go at.

WITS MATIES - Wits were very uninspiring last week and they got hammered the week before by Shimla's. They will enjoy being back at home but they face a quality Maties team that will but them to the sword. Wasn't interested at -27.5 but Betx offering a -18.5 and I'm happy with that. The potential for 9 point tries make it a lot easier to bridge bigger handicaps so under usual rules this is probably around -14.5.

UCT TUKS - UCT have impressed me this season, especially the forward pack. They've been strong in all their games so far but think it could be time they come unstuck. Tuks defended unbelievably against Maties and if they put it that sort of performance they will brush aside UCT. It's do or die for them. Similar to the last game, capped it at -9.5 so not too much meat on the bone at -8.5 but at -6.5 I'll take my chances.

NMMU NWU - Both teams have been poor this season but I can see a comfortable win for NWU. Won't be having them at that handicap though so I'll pass.

SHIMLAS UJ - I don't have any sort of read on UJ, just haven't seen enough of them so I'm going to sit and watch.

Two bets for me both with betx
Maties -18.5 @8/10 (main bet)
Tuks -6.5 @9/10

Thanks TML. I quite fancy the Shimlas v UJ match. UJ have started slow in all three their matches reaching half time with 3 points against the Maties / 9 points against CUT / 3 points against Pukke. First up for me

Shimlas -4.5 at half time @ 9/10

Not too inspired this week, so having a stab at longer odds.

Wits race to 10 @ 7/2
Wits/Maties @ 7/1

Tricky to tell with so little info and this early in the tournament but think they have the wrong favorite in the one varsity cup game.

Taking my chances with UKZN +8.5 and nibble at the win @25/10 vs TUT
Also fancy UFH to bounce back and taking -16.5 vs Rhodes
Also think WSU will stay within the handicap but I'll sit that one out as CPUT were good at home last season

Madibaz ran Wits close last week and I think a similar performance today should keep them within the cap which looks pretty generous

Madibaz v Pukke
Madibaz + 16.5 @ 9/10 at BetXchange

Someone explain the 7 point try rule to me please...

If Wits start with the ball in their 22m, run the ball into the maties half, get a penalty, take a quick tap and then score a try...is this a 7 or 5 point try???

Ah never mind, I see they updated the score after HT

Munter Punter wrote: Ah never mind, I see they updated the score after HT

lol the score can changes all the time last week it took 8 mins before they corrected the score

At HT Pukke leading 14-5 for those interested.

Pukke with all the possession and territory but finishing very poorly.

They just updated the WITS game to a draw!

WSB a bit slow in the UJ game and I got in. Before the red card 1/1 for the win, and after 8/10. This game has 10 point rule written all over it!

As soon as I wrote that UJ goes and scores, really reconsidering betting!

Munter Punter wrote: They just updated the WITS game to a draw!

its a joke hey

Brent Graham wrote: I cannot believe how poor this Shimlas team is playing, I watched them in week 1 and they were excellent in wet conditions and this week they cannot take on 14 men

so it is only 10 more mins for 14 players plus minus ?

the plus 10.5 on shimlas does not look to bad they still have plus minus 10 mins with 14 men and also have a power play

k now it over lol and this game is getting soft a red card for a kick in the head

FT 37-5. Madibaz showed lots of fight despite being outplayed

shaft wrote: FT 37-5. Madibaz showed lots of fight despite being outplayed

that a shock i thought they looked good esp at home

Be careful accepting a result from a bookie, the Wits v Maties game was a draw, not a loss by 2 as mentioned on TV or SueprBru who have already put the result in

Maties 17-0 and Tuks 13-0 up both after 20min and they both throw it away, very disappointing. Looks like varsity shield bailed me out though and wish I had bet in all 3 but live to fight another week.

Oracle wrote: Be careful accepting a result from a bookie, the Wits v Maties game was a draw, not a loss by 2 as mentioned on TV or SueprBru who have already put the result in

dont worry about the stuff you can not control lol

and really who put money on a 0.07 win on maties

Got cleaned out there but learnt a valuable lesson - Odds against just as likely to come up as odds on. One cannot punt this tournament as rugby ie look for the 9/10's on the cap. This is much more like football where I have learnt through many years of experience that there is very little difference between a 17/10 and an 8/10 bet.
There will be no more odds on bets from The Vann on this tournament

Anyone who's made money on this tournament over the last few years deserves a medal. I've watched from a distance as am absolutely clueless on it and it and never had a punt. It just seems to be repeat each year of punters coming off 2nd best, but it comes at a time when many are starved for super rugby and sucks bets in.

Credit to likes of TML and others who post insights that you don't see anywhere else on this level of rugby, but it still comes across as a lottery and the results tonight back that up.

Super Rugby thankfully can be the salvation.

I think the players in this competition deserve some slack. Remember they are students after all and some of them do actually take their studies seriously. If you have an assignment or test due on the Tuesday or Wednesday, obviously your head will be at a different place.

Many players are first year students. Last year they were sucking on their momma's teat and now they're thrown into new surroundings and have to do all their shit themselves. Many struggle to adapt.

This is a short tournament. 8 games to get into a semi. If you don't learn quickly and reverse your form you're gone. The promotion/relegation factor also sit on their minds.This year's relegation battle will be fascinating.

southpaw wrote: Anyone who's made money on this tournament over the last few years deserves a medal. I've watched from a distance as am absolutely clueless on it and it and never had a punt. It just seems to be repeat each year of punters coming off 2nd best, but it comes at a time when many are starved for super rugby and sucks bets in.

Credit to likes of TML and others who post insights that you don't see anywhere else on this level of rugby, but it still comes across as a lottery and the results tonight back that up.

Super Rugby thankfully can be the salvation.

Can see where you coming from but have to respectfully disagree and think with a bit of time and effort these type of tournaments are the most profitable, at least for me. Granted this is a losing week for me but 2/4 means its only minor loses and its my first losing week in 5. I think this tournament is very inefficiently priced up and numerous times I've found the tournament to be priced up incorrectly by more than 10 points, especially early on if you know the teams better than the bookies. I've still got a 25/10 ticket on Stellies to win the tournament which is a guarantee with a home semi and final and I've got a 33/10 winner and a 7/1 winner on the board in the last 4 weeks along with a number of pretty easy handicap wins. I don't mean this to come across as me gloating but just trying to get the point across that, yes you going to have the odd result here and there but the bookies put far less effort into pricing up these games than pricing up super rugby and that's why I think there's value in this tournament. Each to their own though, everyone has their own way of making money in this game. Another gold mine for me is the Currie cup 2nd division, some won't touch the tournament but you can get some crazy quotes there if you keep up to date with things.

TML your insights have been brilliant for this tournament!

I think the advantage here (as oppose to Super Rugby) is that the bookies can't just follow the internationals sites. Also as TML says there is actually a good chance that you could have a bit more info than the markets do (especially early on as he mentioned). The same goes for CC 2nd Division I presume.

Even with some domestic cricket I have found that our bookies are slow to respond to team news and as such a clued up punter with good access to info can enjoy a bit of an advantage.

I also agree with South that results are quite volatile and I think it has to do with the fact that these are still young players who don't pitch up and deliver the same solid standard of rugby week in and week out. Also one or two injuries or changes to the team makes a huge difference. Without the opinions of the likes of TML I would be lost in this comp.

Keep up the good work Missing Link (B)

Hey TML, wasn't knocking yours or anyone's performance this week or any week for that matter on this tournament, that's not my style and most on here know that. And i called you out as someone who's clearly doing homework to make this competition pay, as CC has said, it's appreciated by many i'm sure.

My comment is more a general observation from a neutral who's watched it with interest over the years and how it's approached for punting. I've found it genuinely fascinating the punting interest it attracts, and if anyone is making profit then as i said, a medal is deserved as even with some bookie pricing errors it still looks quite volatile.

Keep up the good work.

southpaw wrote: Hey TML, wasn't knocking yours or anyone's performance this week or any week for that matter on this tournament, that's not my style and most on here know that. And i called you out as someone who's clearly doing homework to make this competition pay, as CC has said, it's appreciated by many i'm sure.

My comment is more a general observation from a neutral who's watched it with interest over the years and how it's approached for punting. I've found it genuinely fascinating the punting interest it attracts, and if anyone is making profit then as i said, a medal is deserved as even with some bookie pricing errors it still looks quite volatile.

Keep up the good work.

I know you weren't knocking me or anyone else, apologies if it came across that way South. Was just giving an opposing view.

The Missing Link wrote:

southpaw wrote: Hey TML, wasn't knocking yours or anyone's performance this week or any week for that matter on this tournament, that's not my style and most on here know that. And i called you out as someone who's clearly doing homework to make this competition pay, as CC has said, it's appreciated by many i'm sure.

My comment is more a general observation from a neutral who's watched it with interest over the years and how it's approached for punting. I've found it genuinely fascinating the punting interest it attracts, and if anyone is making profit then as i said, a medal is deserved as even with some bookie pricing errors it still looks quite volatile.

Keep up the good work.

I know you weren't knocking me or anyone else, apologies if it came across that way South. Was just giving an opposing view.

@Southpaw You are 100% right, I have made money on this tournament in the past, but the rules are different and they are kids, that is exactly why I keep stakes to an absolute minimum, as much it is difficult, it is also an opportunity as most bookies do not concentrate on this and as mentioned have no one to follow.

@TML Keep up the good work, you are clearly as step above!!