Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

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The Vann
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6 years 1 month ago - 6 years 1 month ago #1 by The Vann

Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico was created by The Vann

Paris-Nice
This one week Race to the Sun starts today with Team Sky having won 6 of the last 7 races. Poels and Henao for Sky rightly feature at the top of the outright betting. Looking further down the list there are two guys I fancy and I expect one of them to top 3. Dan Martin finished 3rd last year and Gorka Izagirre finished 4th.

Top 3 Dan Martin @ 4/1
Top 3 Gorka Izagirre @ 13/2

These odds are on offer at Sunbet where I am desperately trying to get FICA'd today to place as I have been evicted from the other local books offering cycling

Last edit: 6 years 1 month ago by The Vann.

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mackem
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6 years 1 month ago #2 by mackem

Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

Thanks Vann, these events crept up on me so not going to get a bet down today but see Stage 1 of Paris - Nice is on the telly today and a decent field. Will take a watching brief today and get involved in the week.

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Couch Critic
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6 years 1 month ago - 6 years 1 month ago #3 by Couch Critic

Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

Alla P huge favourite today. Nice lump of over 5% for just under 2km to finnish so the Frenchie should come out blazing.

For the outright the question is who Sky will back as no1 and whether Alla P has the climbing legs to stick with the big dogs on the the penultimate stage to keep him in the overall mix. I really fancy the Frenchie as one of those unique riders who has the potential to do it all. Solid TT, decent climbing with his small frame, good sprint ability and of course his great punchy power. That said I think he should win today but the overall might still be a step too far.

If Poels is given the Sky lead he is legitimately the solid favourite of the lot. For me Dan might just drop a few too many seconds against the clock.

Overall just a little nibble on Bauke Mollema @ 15/1 & Wellens @ 17/1 for an interest

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Last edit: 6 years 1 month ago by Couch Critic.

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The Vann
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6 years 1 month ago #4 by The Vann

Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

Paris-Nice Stage 3
A few cat 3's today with the last around 20km out. Unable to find an exact description of the last 500m but anything flattish to around 4% I fancy this match up

Teunissen over Alaphilippe @ 13/10

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Couch Critic
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6 years 1 month ago - 6 years 1 month ago #5 by Couch Critic

Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

Stage 3 screams reduced sprint.

Firstly we have a good 5km's at over 5% which should be hit at some pace to try and shake out the pure sprinters. The there is 1.5km of upward kick within the last 3km's which will further drop off a few quick men.

If FDJ can get Demare to the finish his efforts on Sunday proved that the final kick shouldn't shake him off and without Groenewegen, Greipel, Krisstoff and Viviani to compete with he should cruise it - the only question is whether he will be there or not.

Of course Ala P has shown he's up for anything so he should remain in the mix along with the likes of Gallopin. Both have a double option for victory - break solo on the climb or wait for a reduced sprint. Same goes for Trentin. Even Wellens showed his dashing ability on Sunday.

Trentin @ 15/1
Gallopin @ 36/1

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Last edit: 6 years 1 month ago by Couch Critic.

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The Vann
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6 years 1 month ago #6 by The Vann

Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

Tirreno - Adriatico
Another dip at two for the top three places - Hopefully make one. Have not seen Uran yet this season ( Did finish 3rd in 2015 ) but Nibali had a reasonable warm-up in the middle east

Top 3 Uran @ 9/1
Top 3 Nibali @ 9/1

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Couch Critic
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6 years 1 month ago #7 by Couch Critic

Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

Tirreno-Adriatico
Lots of TT work to be done so GT, Froome and big Tom D will be tough to beat. I will have a nibble on Kelderman. If TD fluffs his lines the team will rally behind WK.
Kelderman @ 12/1

Paris-Nice
LL caught everyone off guard and now has some precious seconds in hand. The TT and Saturday's mountain stage are the two big deciders for this race so expect the title contenders to come out to play today.

Stage 4: Poels should be pushing it and Ala P could be in with a good shout. But De La Cruz is flying at the moment and I reckon the Spaniard might be willing to risk just a little bit more than some of the other contenders. Not a great price but I will have a decent strike on:
David de La Cruz @ 4/1

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The Vann
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6 years 1 month ago #8 by The Vann

Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

Paris - Nice Stage 4
Match bet double for me today
Martin over Chavez
into
LL Sanchez over Wellens @ 15/10

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Couch Critic
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6 years 1 month ago - 6 years 1 month ago #9 by Couch Critic

Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

Martin with a poor TT (and Chavez actually putting in a solid effort) Vann - but nowhere near the same level of let down as I got from De La Cruz!

At least we now have the big boys moving to the top of the time sheets as the GC starts to take shape.

In terms of pre race picks Gorka Izagirre to podium is still a lively runner for Vann. Bauke Mollema had a TT shocker to put him well and truly out of the running for me.

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Last edit: 6 years 1 month ago by Couch Critic.

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mackem
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6 years 1 month ago #10 by mackem

Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

Still coming to terms with who's moved to which teams, going in semi blind here as haven't seen much but Tom Jelte Slagter 50/1 Stage 5 Paris Nice will carry my beer money

twitter: @goodforthegame

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The Vann
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6 years 1 month ago #11 by The Vann

Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

Think Paris-Nice is either a break or someone from a reduced peleton so am going for the flat stage at Tirreno today

Win Ewan @ 11/2

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Couch Critic
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6 years 1 month ago #12 by Couch Critic

Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

Yeh Paris Nice is a lottery today (not sure about break or sprint) and my random picks here are:
Calmejane @ 29/1
Jelle Wallays @ 42/1

For TA I will back Kittel at a short price. Not his best lead-out train but he is a pure sprinter who will be hungry for this one. At top form he is in a different class.
Kittel @ 5/2

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Couch Critic
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6 years 1 month ago #13 by Couch Critic

Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

Finally a winner with Kittel

Both PN and TA promises some exciting racing today so am looking forward to it!

Paris Nice Stage 6 bets:
Gallopin @ 28/1
Simon Yates @ 33/1

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The Vann
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6 years 1 month ago #14 by The Vann

Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

Well done The Couch (B) (B) and his first win of the season and first ever on Italian soil

Paris-Nice 6
Dan Martin @ 10/1 Win only

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6 years 1 month ago #15 by Couch Critic

Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

Paris-Nice:
Zakarin @ 12/1
Ion Izagirre @ 25/1

TA:
Landa @ 5/1

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The Vann
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6 years 1 month ago #16 by The Vann

Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

COUCH THE MAN - Two in a row (B)
Couple of breakaway darts for today's watch
Paris-Nice
De Gendt @ 35/1
Tirreno-Adriatico
Terpstra @ 150/1
Geniez @ 225/1

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6 years 1 month ago #17 by Couch Critic

Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

Cheers Vann! Short odds so still only slightly ahead...

Gorka nicely in the mix for The Vann’s Top 3 pic

France:
De La Cruz @ 22/1
Konrad @ 28/1

Italy:
Ulissi @ 30/1

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The Vann
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6 years 1 month ago #18 by The Vann

Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

Couch Critic wrote:
France:
De La Cruz @ 22/1

Give that man a Bells (B)
Stiffs on Wellens but then he would have taken my Gorka spot

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6 years 1 month ago #19 by Couch Critic

Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

The Vann wrote:
Couch Critic wrote:
France:
De La Cruz @ 22/1

Give that man a Bells (B)
Stiffs on Wellens but then he would have taken my Gorka spot

Finally a nice winner!

Thanks Vann and happy for your Gorka punt as well (B)

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Brent Graham
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6 years 1 month ago #20 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

Good to see you lads getting some prep runs in ahead of the Grand Tours - well played

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

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The Vann
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6 years 1 month ago #21 by The Vann

Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

Tirreno-Adriatico 6
Flat sprint stage today and the world champ has not yet won a stage and is on offer at reasonable odds
Sagan @ 28/10

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The Vann
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6 years 1 month ago #22 by The Vann

Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

Not opening a new thread for this as its a one day race on Saturday.
The pinnacle for road cycling is the three Grand Tours closely followed by the five Monuments of cycling - the five great one day races. The first Monument takes place this Saturday.
Milan - San Remo
The route is 291km but the action only starts in the last 55km with 5 short climbs. The last climb - the Poggio tops at 5km from the end with 3km downhill and a 2km flat. The race has been won by sprinters and one day specialists. My fancy here is Trentin. He left Quick-Step last season for Mitchelton-Scott where he has been promised support for the classics. The Mitchelton-Scott lead for this race will be Ewan but he fades in bad weather and this is what is predicted for the race. Trentin will not be required to support Ewan early on and I think his odds make him the pick in the under 50/1 market.

e/w Trentin @ 30/1
( 1/4 odds for top 3 )

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Couch Critic
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6 years 1 month ago #23 by Couch Critic

Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

For San Remo:

Alie P @ 18/1
Wellens @ 50/1

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Brent Graham
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6 years 1 month ago #24 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

Recorded the last hour and watched this morning - never had a bet but what a great watch to get my cycling year going - Nibali what an amazing rider you are

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The Vann
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6 years 1 month ago #25 by The Vann

Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico

Brent Graham wrote: Recorded the last hour and watched this morning - never had a bet but what a great watch to get my cycling year going - Nibali what an amazing rider you are

Great racing.
My man Trentin just could not bridge to Nibali - probably could not hear me shouting from SA

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