Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations Week 5 + other rugby

Brent Graham wrote: A crazy weekend past for me with the disappointment of missing overs in the Crusaders game made up for by some close shaves going my way including the Bulls over 25.5 points. Overall a decent weekend and already looking ahead to next weekend

Here are my projected caps:

Chiefs -15.5 v Bulls ( -14.5 )
Highlanders +2.5 v Crusaders ( + 3.5 )
Brumbies -5.5 v Sharks ( choice )
Stormers -2.5 v Blues ( -7.5 )
Lions -33.5 v Sunwolves ( -34.5 )
Jaguares -5.5 v Reds ( - 4.5 )
Waratahs -5.5 v Rebels ( - 2.5 )

and the final weekend of 6 Nations with Ireland having secured the title (5/2 2nd favs upfront) and just the Grand Slam to play for

Italy +17.5 v Scotland ( + 16.5 )
England -4.5 v Ireland ( -2.5 )
Wales -7.5 v France ( - 3.5 )

Look forward to your thoughts

Thanks Brent , mine in brackets . Very very close in almost all .

as long as the blues are not favorites they should win

Brent Graham wrote: and the final weekend of 6 Nations with Ireland having secured the title (5/2 2nd favs upfront) and just the Grand Slam to play for

Italy +17.5 v Scotland
England -4.5 v Ireland
Wales -7.5 v France

Look forward to your thoughts

Were the above caps projected by yourself Brent, or had you seen them out? (They've been out for some time).
Irrespective, you've got the Italy and Wales games spot on.
The England v Ireland cap may've been about right up until this weekend, but most books have it a choice game now - Ireland favourites with some.

Betway have Ireland win at 2.00, Ireland +0.5 @ 1.72 and Ireland + 1 @ 1.95.
Can anyone explain this - it makes no sense at all.to me

I fancy the Irish - (unlike England they have a back row and also an attacking game), so have taken some of the +1

Never a good idea getting too excited about the Blues, but the .85 available at BetX is crazy if you ask me.

i know the Stormers are a different beast at home, but that Blues midfield will run riot vs a defensive disaster in DDA. I can't see a single match up the Stormers will win.

Highlanders have also really impressed with their game speed and an injury hit Saders (No Whitelock, Crotty or Mo'unga) will compete but succumb late on. Fancy the even money currently on offer.

*Except Kitshoff at loosehead (obviously )

Rebels 9/10 vs the Tahs. That looks tasty!

Caps are out already

Chiefs -18.5 v Bulls
Highlanders +1.5 v Crusaders
Brumbies +1.5 v Sharks
Stormers +1.5 v Blues
Lions -33.5 v Sunwolves
Jaguares -5.5 v Reds
Waratahs -2.5 v Rebels

The Brumbies dog at home is the one that draw my attention.
I like the Blues dnb @ 1.85 as well

i've seen nothing from Brumbies to suggest they can use home advantage to beat the Sharks. Couldn't handle strong set pieces from Reds, couldn't handle some good attacking play from Rebels backs.

Sharks were poor against Sunwolves overall. But this in a way is a good thing - the side hasn't clicked at all yet, but getting away from the Durban heat and humidity for me is a good thing for rugby they're trying to play.

Sharks win my early pick, hoping for around evens once more bookies price up.

Nothing else really jumping out, but of others i'm leaning:

Jags to cover cap against Reds, who are not good travellers.
Lions to put a basketball score against Sunwolves, if picking strongest team.
Highlanders to edge Saders and like them on the small plus.

Once again it is early days and not a game happening this week but Saturday’s result in top 14 is adding more confidence in a massive turnover by Brive in the Challenge Cup.
They lost Saturday at home against Clermont and are now on 13th position with 1 point only ahead of Oyonnax.
Brive will play Agen (fighting for relegation) before the Challenge and Lyon the following week, both games at home, followed then by a game at Oyonnax and in Stade Francais, 2 teams also fighting to avoid relegation – those are 2 must home game win and 2 away game where Brive will look at bonus point or win. Those 4 games will be critical to stay in the top14 and I cannot see them risking losing key players in the Challenge.
As I said indeed Newcastle is fighting to secure a spot in semi-final of the Aviva with Tigers, Gloucester and Bath not far behind but I cannot see them not playing the Challenge at least 100% and at the same time secure a Champions Cup spot for next season by finishing in one of the 6 spots.
Therefore I am going with the Newcastle handicap as I predict it will end up around 12-13 or even 15 on match day

2.5U Newcastle -8.5 @ 1.90

Took last week already

2.5U Newcastle x Pau @1.82

Hey guys new here,
Ive just looked at the line with GT bets, some exciting games last weekend.
I like the look of the Jaguares covering -6 against the reds with the travel factor huge, Jags impressed me last week against the tahs and I think if they play like that consistently they'll be a tough team to beat at home throughout the season. Blues look good value, I dont think stormers will be able to handle the attacking power of the blues and after two tough NZ games. What do you think is the difference of quality between Aus and SA teams? For example Sharks vs Brumbies. line not out yet but under points will probably be value. If lions take the game seriously it will be brutal for the sunwolvwes and lions would comfortably cover the -32.5. All other lines seem spot on IMO.
Thanks and good luck

Stormers have been badly hit by flu and they'll only have one training session this week (Thursday). The Blues -1.5 has all my money this weekend.

was already leaning Blues based on their fit again no 1 flyhalf's performance in last 20 min, expecting big things of him this season.

Bets down so far:

Blues win @ 10/11
Sharks win @ 10/11

Not sure odds will get any bigger.

Match officials for this week:

www.planetrugby.com/news/match-officials-to-march-18-3/

Heads up
Chiefs vs Bulls
@ Waikato Stadium, Hamilton
Referee: Shuhei Kubo (Japan)

What are your views on singles vs multiple betting?

kingalex44 wrote: What are your views on singles vs multiple betting?

Stick to singles if you want to make money

shaft wrote:

kingalex44 wrote: What are your views on singles vs multiple betting?

Stick to singles if you want to make money

In my experience singles are the way to go, I do take the odd multi, but seriously getting 7 out of 7 is almost impossible, there are some guys here on goodforthegame who have achieved it. I have gotten 7 wrong before, my success if because of having discipline by rating game by units much like this forum. The problem is like this...imagine you get 5/5 and have two legs to at go and your weakest games are ahead, if you had started with a 50 on, your position is now in the thousands, and quite frankly you would never had, had this much on the weakest of your picks. Then what do you do? Take cover or stand your big bet? I always say your wallet is the best teacher, what works for you may not work for others.

Oracle wrote:

shaft wrote:

kingalex44 wrote: What are your views on singles vs multiple betting?

Stick to singles if you want to make money

In my experience singles are the way to go, I do take the odd multi, but seriously getting 7 out of 7 is almost impossible, there are some guys here on goodforthegame who have achieved it. I have gotten 7 wrong before, my success if because of having discipline by rating game by units much like this forum. The problem is like this...imagine you get 5/5 and have two legs to at go and your weakest games are ahead, if you had started with a 50 on, your position is now in the thousands, and quite frankly you would never had, had this much on the weakest of your picks. Then what do you do? Take cover or stand your big bet? I always say your wallet is the best teacher, what works for you may not work for others.

You won't get better advice than this.

Multiple bets are great for any free bets ... the street punter has these massive multiples at insane odds and they are all waiting for that big win, even though its costing them a few hundred a week .... keep it singles to make money over long term.

My one piece of advice - treat every bet as if it was your last and ask yourself "If this was my last loot in the bankroll, is it worth this punt?"

What if we"re talking about multiples of maximum 2 to 3 games at a time, low risk games or so called bankers, like chiefs win tomorrow 1/10. Total odds generally around 4/10 or so?

multiples in my view should be of 2 kinds:

1. A serious sized bet where you're taking a host of very short prices but are also picks you have some confidence on, not just picking for sake of a 1/10 shot.

2. A less serious but still thought out punt of prices anywhere from 5/10 to evens to make up something in region of 10/1 and upwards. I'd normally take this eg. on a Saturday where i'm out all day but i'd like some sort of interest in most of the super rugby that day but not a serious investment where i can't actually follow games in full.

Interestingly i can't really say which of 2 is more successful, but punting singles definitely outweighs both combined in terms of my own experience.

I tend to stray from the 'is this was my last loot is it worth a punt' mindset, as quite often hunch or last minute bets pay off. eg. I had a unit on Gellant for 1st try @ 14/1 in Bulls/Reds game last weekend (not posted on forum as was last minute). It definitely wouldn't be a bet if it was my last R500, but it shows to sometimes not always overthink things and occassionally back your gut.

For those conservative punters who r a lil bit scared of the Bulls +18.5. Sportsbet has alternative handicaps market Bulls +23.5 at 4.5/10

southpaw wrote: I tend to stray from the 'is this was my last loot is it worth a punt' mindset, as quite often hunch or last minute bets pay off. eg. I had a unit on Gellant for 1st try @ 14/1 in Bulls/Reds game last weekend (not posted on forum as was last minute). It definitely wouldn't be a bet if it was my last R500, but it shows to sometimes not always overthink things and occassionally back your gut.

Point taken, my message is dont waste your bankroll on multiples. They are fun to have for a few pennies but stick to the budge

If it wasn't for my rule against backing big minus handicaps the Lions -33.5 would've seen my money. Think the Wolves will be begging for mercy.

mackem wrote: Lions v Sunwolves preview
2 units half time handicap, Lions -16.5 points 17/20 Sunbet

Interesting call from the lions to play Rohan on the wing

RuggaBugga wrote:

southpaw wrote: I tend to stray from the 'is this was my last loot is it worth a punt' mindset, as quite often hunch or last minute bets pay off. eg. I had a unit on Gellant for 1st try @ 14/1 in Bulls/Reds game last weekend (not posted on forum as was last minute). It definitely wouldn't be a bet if it was my last R500, but it shows to sometimes not always overthink things and occassionally back your gut.

Point taken, my message is dont waste your bankroll on multiples. They are fun to have for a few pennies but stick to the budge

sorry RB bud wasn't trying to make a point on that, more so to reflect that oddly some of my bigger wins have been last minute, hunch 1 to 2 unit bets @ double figure odds, whereas i can spend days thinking about a 10 unit play on 1 super rugby game and then still get it wrong!

WSB has released their markets for the Varsity Shield today. I fancy UWC and CPUT.

2 units CPUT -10.5
3 units UWC -35.5

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: WSB has released their markets for the Varsity Shield today. I fancy UWC and CPUT.

2 units CPUT -10.5
3 units UWC -35.5

Thanks for posting, had already capped the games but just assumed they were being played on Monday. Bit worried that I like all the games pretty strongly but hopefully easy money.

CPUT RHODES - CPUT haven't got many points but barring UWC they've been competitive in each game. Penalties are only 2 points in varsity shield but for some reason they keep going for them and its cost them two games now. Rhodes have been shocking and can see CPUT coming out on top here.

UWC UFH - UWC would beat a number of teams in varsity shield and UFH are worse than previous years. This game is a question of how much and how seriously UWC take the game. They've covered this cap in every game so far and expect them to do the same here. See UWC have picked a full strength team too.

WSU TUT - TUT have been good this season barring getting hammered by UWC on Monday. The game was basically the game for who finished top of the log so UWC were up for it and dispatched them. This game is most likely for second spot on the log and I don't understand how WSU are getting such a big head start. I'm taking the plus here and a very small nibble on TUT to win the game, I don't think its impossible if WSU don't turn up.

Bets
CPUT -10.5 @9/10
UWC -35.5 @9/10
TUT +15.5@evens and small bet on win @6/1

Not a good start for me in this year, but here goes: all to come outright win Highlanders, Sharks, Rebels and England!

Game one tomorrow looks difficult to call , initially I thought the Chiefs would probably dish out a real hiding , however the Bulls have generally covered a handicap like this against the Chiefs and I'm inclined to lean towards the plus 18.5 Bulls , however they will have to improve on last week's showing where after starting really well against the Reds they offered next to nothing for the rest of the game. I'm also trying not to read too much into John Mitchell and all the hype as I really don't rate him at all.

Rate him or not. There is a vast difference to what we saw from the Bulls last season which in itself is a massive positive!

Hi gents
My play for the weekend, comes to 8750/1500
Bulls +17.5
Blues -1.5
Lions -35.5
All to come....

Money will be lost on the Highlanders this weekend. No way the reigning champs will succumb to successive defeats to NZ opposition. The Crusaders pack will best that of the Highlanders, milking penalties all day long...

coil wrote: Game one tomorrow looks difficult to call , initially I thought the Chiefs would probably dish out a real hiding , however the Bulls have generally covered a handicap like this against the Chiefs and I'm inclined to lean towards the plus 18.5 Bulls , however they will have to improve on last week's showing where after starting really well against the Reds they offered next to nothing for the rest of the game. I'm also trying not to read too much into John Mitchell and all the hype as I really don't rate him at all.

I was also leaning towards the +18.5 because of a couple of injuries to the chiefs. But what seems to be pretty glaringly obvious is SA and AUS teams are simply not fit enough. I've been burned countless times from last minute tries by NZ teams vs non NZ opposition.
The bulls have shown improvement and I think they will stay close enough most of the game. I think ill play this one +8.5 Bulls HT and look for a low Chiefs minus at half time for the second half.

One bet for me in the Chiefs v Bulls game; buy Divan Rossouw try minutes at 8 with Spreadex.

I'm obviously hoping he beds down quickly, not much Super Rugby form to go on but I think the price may do him a bit of a disservice having had a look at his earlier endeavors. To put it into context, I'd equate this to getting nigh on 5/1 for him to score a try when he's 10/3 best on Oddschecker with all firms bar one going sub 3/1.

A relatively low risk bet that will do for an interest.

Treble @ 5/1

Chiefs -12 to beat Bulls
Lions -32 to beat Sunwolves
Jaguars -6 to beat Reds

Just bet Lions - blues - jags - and rebels su @ 19s

Thoughts?

Under 56.5 points Chiefs v Bulls

Small go on First Scoring Play - Bulls Penalty @ 3.75

harry_rag wrote: One bet for me in the Chiefs v Bulls game; buy Divan Rossouw try minutes at 8 with Spreadex.

I'm obviously hoping he beds down quickly, not much Super Rugby form to go on but I think the price may do him a bit of a disservice having had a look at his earlier endeavors. To put it into context, I'd equate this to getting nigh on 5/1 for him to score a try when he's 10/3 best on Oddschecker with all firms bar one going sub 3/1.

A relatively low risk bet that will do for an interest.

Nice one!

Bulls playing some really good rugby here, very impressed!