Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

Nice pics 4 sure.
They will prob offer a lower + for rebels.

Brent, agree with your picks, only differing on Blues vs Sharks -18.5. Sharks have really not impressed and not yet quite sure how they are going to rectify things.

Caps are out

Chiefs -1.5 v Highlanders
Rebels +10.5 v Hurricanes
Blues -13.5 v Sharks (-13.5)
Brumbies +4.5 v Waratahs
Bulls +3.5 v Stormers
Lions +5.5 v Crusaders

Early thoughts would go on Chiefs dnb @1.85 as we finally saw the real Landers vs an average Canes team, Rebels handicap as I still don't rate the Canes as the bookies are doing but will wait for points and tries as I can see some high scoring games

Chiefs 10/11 to win at GG Gaming. Looks solid!

Handicaps are out for the Champions and Challenge Cups

Scarlets -4 v La Rochelle
Munster -3.5 v Toulon
Clermont -5.5 v Racing
Leinster -5.5 v Saracens

Newcastle -11.5 v Brive
Pau -11.5 v Stade Francais
Connacht -4.5 v Gloucester
Edinburgh -6.5 v Cardiff

I took already some bets on the Challenge as I shared in the past few weeks

2.5U Newcastle x Pau @ 1.82
2.5U Newcastle -8.5 @1.90
5U Pau DNB x Newcastle DNB @ 1.57
1U Newcastle to win Challenge @ 6 (added 0.5U to the original stake as It could be easy to cover it later)

Here is the top 14 situation

11. Agen – 33 points
12. Stade Francais – 33 points
13. Brive – 31 points
14. Oyonnax – 30 points

Stade Francais lost at home this week end against Toulouse in one the best game this season in top 14 but that means they don’t have the choice anymore and the Challenge becomes less and less a priority especially with a home game against Clermont the following week end – likewise for Brive with Lyon at home and Oyonnax away the following week end.

Regarding the Champions Cup, there is always a surprise with an away win and that could be either Toulon or Racing as La Rochelle is not the team from the beginning of the season and Leinster is the team that impressed me the most this season but waiting for starting line and/or information on injured players to make a move.

Early picks

Chiefs W
Tahs - 3.5
Crusaders - 6.5
Bulls W (Will wait for team news, specifically from Stormers camp)

Other games
Fancy Canes to win, but the cap seems spot on. Thinking Rebels might be good on +9.5.
Leaning towards Blues - 11.5

Have taken an early double on Chiefs win into Brumbies +5 @ 3.64

I don't normally bet this early but went with Crusaders - 5.5 at WSB.

Crusaders look great bet atm, if lions cant beat jags then they have no chance of keeping it close with the crusaders

Bradie, just to say many thanks for your very early posts on Stade Francais and Brive in the Challenge Cup. Thanks to you I'm sitting smugly on Newcastle -8 v Brive and Pau -7 v SF. What can possibly go wrong?

Managed to have a glance on the lines/outright odds for this coming weekend on the Super Rugby and three stand out for me.. NAP is the one i am most certain on

Chiefs v Highlanders (Chiefs to win) 5/6
Rebels v Hurricanes (+11) 10/11 *NAP*
Blues (-14) 10/11

Just cannot see this Rebels side losing by more than 11 at home even against New Zealand opposition. I think the performances of some of the Australian sides this year has been really positive and 11 just seems too much to me i'd have had it between 7-9 if i'm honest

Betway have Chiefs +1 @ evens, which I think is a great bet.

Sounds as if they may have Ngatai and Nankivell back as well.

slaterj wrote: Managed to have a glance on the lines/outright odds for this coming weekend on the Super Rugby and three stand out for me.. NAP is the one i am most certain on

Chiefs v Highlanders (Chiefs to win) 5/6
Rebels v Hurricanes (+11) 10/11 *NAP*
Blues (-14) 10/11

Just cannot see this Rebels side losing by more than 11 at home even against New Zealand opposition. I think the performances of some of the Australian sides this year has been really positive and 11 just seems too much to me i'd have had it between 7-9 if i'm honest

Any other NZ franchise I would agree. Rebels are much improved but that Warratahs game showed they are not there yet. The Tahs gave the league the blue print to beat the Rebels put it in the air and compete they don't have the skills to go up and catch the ball. Barrets will have field day with the old garryowen.

labrador wrote: Bradie, just to say many thanks for your very early posts on Stade Francais and Brive in the Challenge Cup. Thanks to you I'm sitting smugly on Newcastle -8 v Brive and Pau -7 v SF. What can possibly go wrong?

Thanks (B)
2 very good handicaps but what can wrong - anything with French teams to be honest
GL

No i do agree with you to some extent the Canes i feel are the strongest team in the NZ Conference this year even though i do feel that the Crusaders will get back on track sooner rather than later after a hit and miss past few weeks.

The Rebels did take advantage of a what i feel is a very poor Sharks team last week so who knows but i do agree they were extremely poor in the 2nd half against the tahs. Still i think 11 is probably a little on the large side somewhat.

I agree the Hurricanes could blow them off the park...potentially. I think the Hurricanes were rusty in that first half against the Highlanders coming off the bye but then they put their foot down. id pick the Highlanders to beat the Rebels right now.

I also think the Crusaders will win well against the Lions....the Lions have gone to the pack since last year.
I like the -6 on offer

Lions lose Dyantyi for 6 weeks! Mnisi also in the sick bay and might miss out against the Saders.
The only thing in the Lions favour is the "revenge factor". Travel factor is not that big against either side as its a Sunday match so plenty time to prepare.

Lions lack flair in the backline and the Swys-cracks are showing!
Saders -5.5 looks a pearler

RuggaBugga wrote: Lions lose Dyantyi for 6 weeks! Mnisi also in the sick bay and might miss out against the Saders.
The only thing in the Lions favour is the "revenge factor". Travel factor is not that big against either side as its a Sunday match so plenty time to prepare.

Lions lack flair in the backline and the Swys-cracks are showing!
Saders -5.5 looks a pearler

Not GOLDEN ??
Just saw that Smith declined the 7s Commonwealth selection to stay with the Lions following Jaco Kriel injury and keep his hope of becoming a Springbok fifteens player.
I will wait to see the Saders starting line before making any move on that game as the over is my first thought.

See Pocock might be back for the Brumbies this weekend

bradie82 wrote: Not GOLDEN ??

Will wait for the Saders XV before declaring it Golden

RuggaBugga wrote:

bradie82 wrote: Not GOLDEN ??

Will wait for the Saders XV before declaring it Golden

The Saders will have the same squad as last weekend. The minus is a good bet, and I'm starting to think that I wouldn't be that surprised if it was 13+.....they will be hungry for bonus points to make up for there 2 losses.

Lads do you agree crusaders Gloucester and Edinburgh is free money

What's your guys' take on the Brumbies vs Tahs and Bulls vs Stormers games?

I originally picked the Tahs to win quite comfortably and tge Bulls to edge a close game. Seems like majority of people are leaning towards the Stormers, which I understand given return of some key players and one or two missing for the Bulls. My pick is based purely on the improvement in the Bulls attack in combination with the Stormers leaky defense.

On the Brumbies game I get there might be some key players either starting or impacting from the bench. I just can't see that influence being enough given how shocking the Brumbies have been and the Tahs played some impressive footy against the Rebels.

Would like to hear to thoughts of our experienced forum members.

I'm struggling to trust the Blues to just win the game on the board.

I'm looking for just one banker this weekend, any game, doesn't matter how low the odds may be.

Any ideas anyone? I'll even take 2/10

Vrystaat wrote: Lads do you agree crusaders Gloucester and Edinburgh is free money

There is no free money in rugby punting and especially with 2 teams playing away.
Connacht has not been amazing this year but the European Challenge could be the only way for them to qualify for the Champions Cup, they have the home advantage and rested some key players last week end.
Edinburgh has been on fire recently but Edinburgh lost 4 out their last 5 games against Cardiff at home and without the starting line, this game is hard to predict.
Finally Lions have been poor recently and indeed Saders should win that game but it looks a bit like a coin flip to me and agree with Brent that points/tries would be the move on this game

sebokeng wrote: I'm struggling to trust the Blues to just win the game on the board.

I'm looking for just one banker this weekend, any game, doesn't matter how low the odds may be.

Any ideas anyone? I'll even take 2/10

Crusaders

bamiam wrote: What's your guys' take on the Brumbies vs Tahs and Bulls vs Stormers games?

I originally picked the Tahs to win quite comfortably and tge Bulls to edge a close game. Seems like majority of people are leaning towards the Stormers, which I understand given return of some key players and one or two missing for the Bulls. My pick is based purely on the improvement in the Bulls attack in combination with the Stormers leaky defense.

On the Brumbies game I get there might be some key players either starting or impacting from the bench. I just can't see that influence being enough given how shocking the Brumbies have been and the Tahs played some impressive footy against the Rebels.

Would like to hear to thoughts of our experienced forum members.

This week is so far the hardest to punt on I reckon - I normally manage to take some early picks but this week, have not taken any yet as to me, anything can happen in most of the games so waiting for points and tries.
On those game, indeed Bulls will be missing 1 or 2 key players and Stormers will have a strong squad but my first thought is over over over - I can see both teams scoring 4 tries each (depending on the starting line obviously) and I have a hope the cut between Tahs and Brumbies will be low and that could be my move

Stark wrote:

sebokeng wrote: I'm struggling to trust the Blues to just win the game on the board.

I'm looking for just one banker this weekend, any game, doesn't matter how low the odds may be.

Any ideas anyone? I'll even take 2/10

Crusaders

Eish Saders...away...I forgot to mention the banker shud atleast be playing at home

sebokeng wrote: I'm struggling to trust the Blues to just win the game on the board.

I'm looking for just one banker this weekend, any game, doesn't matter how low the odds may be.

Any ideas anyone? I'll even take 2/10

There is no banker in rugby (I ve seen someone taking South Africa against Italy as a banker few years ago at 1.08 - we all know the result) but my main confidence is on Newcastle this week end.

bradie82 wrote:

sebokeng wrote: I'm struggling to trust the Blues to just win the game on the board.

I'm looking for just one banker this weekend, any game, doesn't matter how low the odds may be.

Any ideas anyone? I'll even take 2/10

There is no banker in rugby (I ve seen someone taking South Africa against Italy as a banker few years ago at 1.08 - we all know the result) but my main confidence is on Newcastle this week end.

I remember uve been bullish on Newcastle and Pau to win for a while now. What was the strong motivation for this thinking again? Plz remind for me 1 last time asseblief.

sebokeng wrote:

bradie82 wrote:

sebokeng wrote: I'm struggling to trust the Blues to just win the game on the board.

I'm looking for just one banker this weekend, any game, doesn't matter how low the odds may be.

Any ideas anyone? I'll even take 2/10

There is no banker in rugby (I ve seen someone taking South Africa against Italy as a banker few years ago at 1.08 - we all know the result) but my main confidence is on Newcastle this week end.

I remember uve been bullish on Newcastle and Pau to win for a while now. What was the strong motivation for this thinking again? Plz remind for me 1 last time asseblief.

* Newcastle and Pau playing home
* both qualified and been targeting a quarter final at home
* Brive and SF fighting to avoid relegation in Top 14
* both qualified god knows how (SF lost even in Russia)

Brent Graham wrote: Ok lads, coming off a good weekend (made slightly less good thanks to some Aviva betting this afternoon) and sitting with Coil watching the golf

Here are our handicaps - Coils in brackets - home team caps quotedtion

Chiefs -3.5 v Highlanders (-6.5)
Rebels +12.5 v Hurricanes (+10.5)
Blues -10.5 v Sharks (-13.5)
Brumbies -2.5 v Waratahs (+2.5)
Bulls -2.5 v Stormers (+1.5)
Lions +8.5 v Crusaders (+4.5)

I had the chiefs quite strong favourites and the 9/10 the pair certainly paves an easy path to my decision , however I am not that strong as had the cap gone Highlanders plus 6.5 I would have leant towards them.

Conditions will play a big part in Melbourne and if they are good we should have a good chance of a lot of points , having said that the Cane's defence is pretty sharp and as a result I find the game quite hard to call. Leaning towards the Cane's at the moment .

The Blues are strong favourites to win and already I would avoid that ..however their opponents are the clueless Sharks , one brainless side vs another , one talented side vs one poorly coached one. Not a game to get involved in but if in running ad I can get a large Shark's cap I'll take it.

I had the Waratahs minus 2.5 and on paper they are certainly a much better side . The Brumbies have looked so poor this season and when I think of such wonderful players this franchise has produced the current lot look like peanuts . Having said that the Tah's are their worst enemies and have an uncanny ability of switching off for long periods of the game. The Brumbies have a good record in general over the Tah's and I'm now beginning to have doubts. I'll wait until before kick off to make a final call.

I had Bulls plus 1.5 and was quite bullish on them , however their second row appears to be in a little bit of trouble and that does concern me. Points do shout out at me though although I wouldn't take huge quotes , the Stormers will want get an away win while the Bull's will want to confirm their improvement shown so far.

Lastly the Lions will start as underdogs at home against the Crusaders . Point's could certainly be on offer but there is also the revenge factor from last's year's final that could make this game quite a brutal affair. The Crusaders had the job done early on after Kwagga Smiff's red card but did come back strongly in the second half.

I've opposed the Lions all season on the cap but this one has me thinking about continuing that trend.

EPCR Podcast discussing the 8 quarterfinals if anyone is interested

www.epcrugby.com/news/37403.php#.WruQJy5uapo

You just can't beat the Oracle's confidence in the Bulls to beat the Stormers.

"You might as well pay the punters already....push the chips forward, all in"

Well, I think this has been the largest deference of opinion that I've had to Oracle's predictions, which doesn't make me feel anymore confident in my picks...

I'm with him on the Bulls W and the Waratahs - 2.5.

I have:
Chiefs - 1.5
Hurricanes - 9.5
Blues - 11.5
Crusaders - 5.5

This is probably the most difficult weekend of predictions so far this season, so guess there will be many opposing views.

Two early anytime tryscorer bets for me:

Laumape anytime and Aso anytime vs Rebels, both 7/5

Aso has scored some really impressive tries while coming off the bench this season so I think he'll want to talk his chance when starting, and Laumape is Laumape... can never resist a bet on him

Also gone for Crusaders -5 @ 10/11, along with Crusaders -12 @ 2/1

Tempted by B Barret anytime @ 2/1, may add that later

Rebels vs Canes
Over 1.5 penalties scores @2.65
Not much chance this will be a winner but odd is too high not to take

bradie82 wrote: Rebels vs Canes
Over 1.5 penalties scores @2.65
Not much chance this will be a winner but odd is too high not to take

Not much chance?? I disagree, I reckon there's a gud chance it will land, even though Canes tend not to kick for poles

No try to be scored for all 4 of the Champions Cup matches this weekend:

Scarlets vs La Rochelle
Munster vs Toulon
Clermont vs Racing
Leinster vs Saracens

66/1 for each of these bets, around 0.25 units per bet. Rain is gonna be all across UK this weekend, and all game are shaping up to be tight matches (the 66/1 has gone now, around 40/1 I think available)

Also Scarlets vs LAR neither team to reach 20 points @ 6/1

Have two buddies for easter who watch rugby - not punters. Explained handicaps and here is what the non-punters settled on
Chiefs -5.5 @ 16/10 at Sportsbet
Decided to splash two units on it - they can pay for lunch if its crap. A no lose situation for The Vann

Northerner wrote: Two early anytime tryscorer bets for me:

Laumape anytime and Aso anytime vs Rebels, both 7/5

Aso has scored some really impressive tries while coming off the bench this season so I think he'll want to talk his chance when starting, and Laumape is Laumape... can never resist a bet on him

Tempted by B Barret anytime @ 2/1, may add that later

No argument with the other 2 but I can't get on at as good a price as you have. Barrett, on the other hand, is available at 5/2 with Spreadex and does appeal to me at that price. I've split my stake across that and a buy at of his try minutes at 13 which, for me, edges 5/2 in terms of value but carries the risk of him scoring "too early".