Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

Pau v Stade Francais: Buy SF hotshots at 20 with SPIN (Camara, Yobo, Millet, O'Connor)

Bottom line, for me this is over 2 points too low based on how I'd value them. I'm always inclined to play a hotshots bet where my perceived edge is 10% or more. Ideally I'd like strong encouragement from a look at the player stats. In this case I'd describe it more as cautious rather than strong, but good enough to buy at a price that will show 5 points profit for a single try.

Brent Graham wrote: Over 48.5 points Newcastle game 8/10 Sunbet - basing it pretty much on fact that line is generally 51.5

It's raining hard in Newcastle so most lines are moving down

Finally for tonight, Fumat to score a try (Pau) at 9/4 and buy his try minutes at 14 with Spreadex.

Again, it's the extent to which they're out of line that has drawn my eye to this. 6/4 best elsewhere and odds on in places. To be honest, the stats were almost enough to put me off, but at the prices and against today's opponents it's just about a bet for me.

small nibble on newcastle minus 15.5 only cause there is minus 18.5 about ..

Stade look somewhat disinterested...Pau could run up a number here...and in the other game the weather seems to have improved Brent so you have chances

Brive have been much better than expected and at least they are putting up a decent fight , hoping the Falcons though can wear them down in the second half . In the other match no bet for me yet , Pau look very good and should continue to score a few in the second half, will Stade's decent enough bench do anything I wonder ?

Tipped it up earlier this week but final selection out of the three that i went with for Super Rugby this weekend is as follows:

BLUES -14 v Sharks

Also fancying Racing on the + for European Champions Cup this weekend against Clermont. Reasoning is even though playing away Clermont got smoked last weekend against Toulon so they'll either be smarting or carry on from last weekends performence. Racing were impressive last weekend against Lyon away from home in the league so fancy the +5 at 10/11 William Hill

harry_rag wrote: Newcastle v Brive: One bet (or two on the same player) stand out for me in this game.

Tait to score a try at 2/1 with Spreadex and buy his try minutes at 19 with the same firm.

My first view was that the spreads were telling me I'd want odds of at least 9/4 to back him anytime yet the biggest price with the fixed odds firms was evens and most were odds on. That suggested that, if any value was to be had, it was going to be with the spread firms. A buy at 19 falls short of the 2/1 anytime for me and I'd normally just back the latter but, in this case, both prices are tempting enough for the split stakes approach, in case he scores late or more than once.

I think even money is too short but he simply shouldn't be as generously priced as he has been by SX today.

That is some buy! (B)

Cheers, turned into a decent evening. No joy with Fumat but a 30 point profit on Stade Francais hotshots and a nice return from Tait.

Got lucky to some extent as almost decided to just take the fixed odds bet but opted to go for the buy as well.

bradie82 wrote: I know it’s a bit early to punt on games happening in 4 weeks but last night I looked at the calendar in the Top 14 and looking at the fixture in European Challenge, I think the book are over estimating 2 French sides.
Both Brive and Stade Francais qualified for the European Challenge quarter finals (because teams like Toulouse, Sale, Bordeaux,… did not give a damn about this competition) and will be playing away in Newcastle and Pau, 2 teams that lost this year only 1 game for New and none for Pau. I keep in mind that both team are playing for either a semi-final spot or a first qualification for the European Champions Cup but I cannot see the 2 French sides bringing the big guns for those games.
Looking at the French table, both Brive and SF are fighting for relegation and if you add their schedule around that time, that gives :

24 mar : SF vs Toulouse
31 mar : Pau vs SF (Challenge)
07 April : SF vs Clermont

24 mar : Brive vs Agen
31 mar : Newcastle vs Brive (Challenge)
07 April : Oyonnax vs Brive

2 massive game for SF with Toulouse and Clermont home (they will target home game to avoid relegation) while Brive will be playing 2 teams fighting as well for relegation.
Therefore I am going with the biggest punt of the year so far

Newcastle x Pau @ 1.82

@Bradie nice early calls! (B)

Crusaders team look strong to me and I can't see a
tired lions leaky defensive team getting very close

1. Tim Perry
2. Codie Taylor
3. Michael Alaalatoa
4. Scott Barrett
5. Sam Whitelock (C)
6. Heiden Bedwell-Curtis
7. Matt Todd (VC)
8. Jordan Taufua
9. Bryn Hall
10. Mitchell Hunt
11. George Bridge
12. Ryan Crotty (VC)
13. Jack Goodhue
14. Seta Tamanivalu
15. David Havili Reserves
16. Ben Funnell
17. Wyatt Crockett
18. Oliver Jager
19. Quinten Strange
20. Tom Sanders
21. Mitchell Drummond
22. Mike Delany
23. Manasa Mataele

Am on -6.5 and small on 13+

Quick look at what, for me, are tomorrow's early games in the NRL and Super Rugby.

Roosters v Warriors: Cronk to score a try at 5/2 with Skybet and buy Mitchell's try minutes at 22 with Spreadex.

Spreads suggesting Cronk a bet at anything above 12/5, stats agreeable enough for me not to argue. Mitchell 6 points higher with SPIN which is closer to the opinion of the fixed odds firms who are unanimously odds on. I'd equate a buy at 22 to getting 6/4 anytime which seems a solid bet. I may regret not persevering with the split stakes approach at 11/8 anytime with the same firm but going with my instinct and just playing the spreads.

Madkiwi wrote: Crusaders team look strong to me and I can't see a
tired loins leaky defensive team getting very close

1. Tim Perry
2. Codie Taylor
3. Michael Alaalatoa
4. Scott Barrett
5. Sam Whitelock (C)
6. Heiden Bedwell-Curtis
7. Matt Todd (VC)
8. Jordan Taufua
9. Bryn Hall
10. Mitchell Hunt
11. George Bridge
12. Ryan Crotty (VC)
13. Jack Goodhue
14. Seta Tamanivalu
15. David Havili Reserves
16. Ben Funnell
17. Wyatt Crockett
18. Oliver Jager
19. Quinten Strange
20. Tom Sanders
21. Mitchell Drummond
22. Mike Delany
23. Manasa Mataele

Am on -6.5 and small on 13+

Lions making 7 changes from last week's team
15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Sylvian Mahuza, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Madosh Tambwe, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Dillon Smit, 8 Hacjivah Dayimani, 7 Cyle Brink, 6 Kwagga Smith, 5 Franco Mostert (captain), 4 Andries Ferreira, 3 Ruan Dreyer, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Dylan Smith

Substitutes: 16 Corne Fourie, 17 Jacques van Rooyen, 18 Jacobie Adriaanse, 19 Lourens Erasmus, 20 Marvin Orie, 21 Marnus Schoeman, 22 Howard Mnisi, 23 Shaun Reynolds

Sea Eagles v Raiders: J. Croker to score a try at 11/5 with 365

Ok at the price, tend to agree with the consensus that he should be a shade the other side of 2/1.

Blues v Sharks: Buy Nanai try minutes at 20 with Spreadex

Odds on in places, a reasonable bet for me at this price.

slaterj wrote: Tipped it up earlier this week but final selection out of the three that i went with for Super Rugby this weekend is as follows:

BLUES -14 v Sharks

Also fancying Racing on the + for European Champions Cup this weekend against Clermont. Reasoning is even though playing away Clermont got smoked last weekend against Toulon so they'll either be smarting or carry on from last weekends performence. Racing were impressive last weekend against Lyon away from home in the league so fancy the +5 at 10/11 William Hill

Originally thought I'd stay away from this game, as neither team can be trusted.
But I do somewhat fancy the Blues, so have taken some -11 with B365. (It appears to be -14 with most other books).

Also fancy Racing, I took some +9 back in January at the conclusion of the pool stages. Have also got some Racing to win @ 3.0
Although clearly it would be an upset if they did. The stats on QFs make pretty grim reading for away teams:
Heineken Cup era - home team won 54/72 QFs, avg score 25-16.
Champions Cup era - home team won 11/12 QFs, avg score 29-15

Have also had a decent go at Crusaders -5.5.
Defensively the Lions have been atrocious the last few weeks, shipping 38 points vs the Wolves and 49 vs the Jags.
The defending champs should put them to the sword.

Lions v Saders playing tomorrow? Seems odd given there is a 15:00 slot open today

Nice to see Perofeta getting a start. One of my favourite players. Sharks is the worse team in the competition and has to be taken on.

Blues over 33.5 points at 9/10 onto Waratahs over 23.5 points at 9/10

hanrick wrote: Nice to see Perofeta getting a start. One of my favourite players. Sharks is the worse team in the competition and has to be taken on.

Blues over 33.5 points at 9/10 onto Waratahs over 23.5 points at 9/10

Fully agree with you. I've just stuck 2 units on Blues -13 on William Hill. Was -14 last night on the site but it's been clipped in by 1 and i'm happy to take that. As said in recent weeks the Sharks look a bit of a shambles and even though they have got a good record in NZ playing the Blues down the years i think the -13 certainly looks manageable

Have done a bit of a re think , Sharks under 22.5 at Sunbet . Just cannot have them anymore , hopelessly coached and just require the Blues to be good in defence .....

Worrying thing regarding The Sharks is that they do have a good passage of play in the game but then when the other team scores a try or two you can see the heads go right down as what happened against the Rebels a few weeks back.

Only knows if the same will happen tonight. No SBW either apparently he's out for 6 weeks with an injury

Someone shud send Umanga a WhatsApp very quickly n tell him to tell his team to kick at goal whenever they get a kickable penalty. Sharks tend to defend like pit bulls

Knew this game was a bear trap grr , Blues pathetic as usual and brainless , go the Sharks for the conference bet at least .

Suicidal play from the Blues here.. what on earth were they thinking not kicking that ball out when they were deep in their own half?

I have 2.5 units on Blues - 11.5 and 2.5 on blues 13+.

Will start doubting if Sharks are up after 60min.

Took an in game bet at Sportingbet at 1.8 for the Blues to win.

Ah, the good old Blues doing their thing.

hanrick wrote: Ah, the good old Blues doing their thing.

Pretty much. I must just stop betting in games where they are involved.

Well that was a disgraceful 1st half from the Blues. Have these guys played with each other before? Look like a part time pub team. To think this was the same team that played so well against the Lions a few weeks back. Massive 2nd half needed

Blues +9.5 @ 9/10 at BetX hopefully a runner

My bet smoked and have gone under 68.5 in running , have also backed Brumbies plus 1.5 in the next main bet.

Only the Blues could do a Blues and play like the Blues after being like the Blues in the 1st half

bamiam wrote: I have 2.5 units on Blues - 11.5 and 2.5 on blues 13+.

Will start doubting if Sharks are up after 60min.

Alright, took 53min, come on Blues.

Where has this Sharks team been? If you told me the Blues will score 40 points and still lose by more than 20 points I would told you you should stop smoking funny stuff. Hopefully the Waratahs can now deliver the double.

Gone for Brumbies +1 at 10/11 William Hill 2 Units

In effort to make back some of the units lost on the Blues, I've gone Tahs win with points over 46.5 @2.4. 2.5 units

hanrick wrote: Nice to see Perofeta getting a start. One of my favourite players. Sharks is the worse team in the competition and has to be taken on.

Blues over 33.5 points at 9/10 onto Waratahs over 23.5 points at 9/10

Well played Hanrick. Sharp punting

Bookie Basher wrote:

hanrick wrote: Nice to see Perofeta getting a start. One of my favourite players. Sharks is the worse team in the competition and has to be taken on.

Blues over 33.5 points at 9/10 onto Waratahs over 23.5 points at 9/10

Well played Hanrick. Sharp punting

Thanks BB! Some ammo for the Bulls and Crusaders.

harry_rag wrote: Roosters v Warriors: buy Mitchell's try minutes at 22 with Spreadex.

I may regret not persevering with the split stakes approach at 11/8 anytime with the same firm but going with my instinct and just playing the spreads.

Well I got the regret bit right. 3rd minute try for Mitchell supports the wisdom of the split stakes approach where the prices are close enough to make it viable. Croker try minimises the losses but can't believe I managed to back a player (Nanai) who failed to score in a game with over 100 points!

after a decent friday's punting , saturday is proving troublesome so far , waratahs looked too obvious for me and was really expecting the brumes to win. nevertheless some great rugby later on , was firmly in the bulls camp but their second row does worry me , hoping to get on them in running if they fall behind . also fancy the cardiff blues today although as mentioned it's very tough for away sides in that comp.

Friday s been very good so far with the Challenge Cup early calls and the penalties in the Canes game.
Weather in Galway is very good, sunny, not too cold and not too windy and both teams play open games - and same for the Bulls game

Over 45.5 @ 1.83 Connacht v Glou
Over 4,5 tries @ 1.61 Connacht v Glou
Over 53.5 @ 1.90 Bulls vs Stormers
Over 6.5 tries @1.70 Bulls vs Stormers

Miserable morning from me calling the Blues -14 and Brumbies +1. Should have had a lie in and sacked both of the games off. Brumbies having two line outs in the dying stages and both throws getting picked was a killer. They were pathetic and will be staying well clear of them going forwards.

Connacht v Gloucester looks a real tricky one but leaning towards the home side even though both teams are in poor form

Have taken Gloucester 17/10 outright in the next .

3 players for me in Munster v Toulon.

Buy Conway's try minutes at 10 with Spreadex
Buy Wooton's try minutes at 13 with SPIN and a small anytime bet at 3.6 on BF
Ashton to score a try at 10/3 with BF Sportsbook

Usual scenario of prices that catch my eye and stand up to scrutiny of the players' stats.