Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's

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3 months 1 week ago - 3 months 1 week ago #1 by southpaw
Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's was created by southpaw
Surprised to see Blake 1/10 for the 100m today. Simbine is known to hold back in heats, he was 80% effort in semi's and still 4th fastest. Always at his best first half of year.

Think he can put some pressure on Blake and too big for me @ 8/1.

Simbine 8/1 for 100m, no harm done at that sort of price.

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Last edit: 3 months 1 week ago by Brent Graham.
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3 months 1 week ago #2 by shaft
Replied by shaft on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
That was too easy well done South :woohoo:

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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3 months 1 week ago #3 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Easiest 8/1 ever cashed! Cracking stuff South :woohoo: :woohoo:

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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3 months 1 week ago #4 by kt6747
Replied by kt6747 on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Well Done South, great call (B) (B) (B)

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3 months 1 week ago #5 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
(B) For the pick, :angry: at me for looking at this but not following!

Found 7/1 in a couple of places then forgot all about it till I've just returned to the thread.

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3 months 1 week ago #6 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Shot lads :cheer: (B) Superb stuff from Simbine and Bruintjies.

Love events like commonwealth games, only need to have a little bit of knowledge and studying to catch the bookies out. They have no experienced traders for this sort of stuff.

Will be looking out for more value.

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3 months 1 week ago #7 by shaft
Replied by shaft on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Are we using this thread for the sevens Brent?

Surely the Blitzboks should be much closer to evens for gold this weekend.

18/10 looks very tasty.

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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3 months 1 week ago #8 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's

shaft wrote: Are we using this thread for the sevens Brent?

Surely the Blitzboks should be much closer to evens for gold this weekend.

18/10 looks very tasty.


Fiji are the best value at 3/1. This tournament is different to usual IRB7s as only the top of each pool go into the Gold Medal Semi's (Team that finishes 2nd goes into the 5th -8th Semis), bottom 2 teams of each pool are knocked out.

Trying to find out how the Semi Final draw works but can't see anything online.

Fiji were not allowed to compete in the 2014 CWG so they will be motivated for a Gold here and will be sharper after HK. I think 3/1 on the Feeeeeeeej is cracking value, especially if they get Aus/Eng in their Semi ...

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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3 months 1 week ago #9 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's

RuggaBugga wrote:
Fiji are the best value at 3/1.


Thanks Agree- I'll take 5 units on that

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3 months 1 week ago #10 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's

shaft wrote: Are we using this thread for the sevens Brent?

Surely the Blitzboks should be much closer to evens for gold this weekend.

18/10 looks very tasty.


Yes lets use this one, will change the heading

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3 months 1 week ago #11 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
First caps are out for the 7s

Australia -10.5 v Samoa
England -42.5 v Jamaica
Canada +7.5 v Kenya
NZ -48.5 v Zambia
Wales -12.5 v Uganda
Fiji -48.5 Sri Lanka
Scotland -20.5 v Papua NG
SA -57.5 v Malaysia

Wales H looks like the best bet

Lachignole
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3 months 1 week ago #12 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Thanks Bradie, what book is that?

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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3 months 1 week ago #13 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's

RuggaBugga wrote: Thanks Bradie, what book is that?


Bet365

Lachignole

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3 months 1 week ago #14 by Rohan11
Replied by Rohan11 on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's

bradie82 wrote: First caps are out for the 7s

Australia -10.5 v Samoa
England -42.5 v Jamaica
Canada +7.5 v Kenya
NZ -48.5 v Zambia
Wales -12.5 v Uganda
Fiji -48.5 Sri Lanka
Scotland -20.5 v Papua NG
SA -57.5 v Malaysia

Wales H looks like the best bet


Fiji
scotland and AUS will see my money on the handicap

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3 months 1 week ago #15 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Wales -12.5 is to low and going 3 units on it
Uganda played last week end and lost 24-10 against Japan and 26-0 against Germany while Wales rested key players - no brainer

Lachignole

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3 months 1 week ago #16 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Need these SA bookies to price up!

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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3 months 1 week ago #17 by Wies Bang
Replied by Wies Bang on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
WSB has wales -15.5 , should still be to low.

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3 months 1 week ago #18 by Rohan11
Replied by Rohan11 on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Have taken the following treble
Wales -15.5
Scotland -16.6
Aus -7.5

ODDS: 6/1

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3 months 1 week ago #19 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
All over Wales -15.5!
Wales 26 Uganda 7 (Shield Final in Dubai)

Then Uganda did quite well in SA, the weekend after their first game was against England. Cap was +25.5. England won 36-0. So they are in the same situational spot and could be a bit tired while Wales are fully rested. Think Wales go full tilt in their 1st game, rest players against Sri Lanka in 2nd game and then all or nothing against Fiji last game. Points matter in the CWG so they will be targeting plenty tries.

Wales -15.5 v Uganda is GOLDEN

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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3 months 1 week ago #20 by shaft
Replied by shaft on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
I see Manyonga is 9/10 for Long Jump gold. Is he not a shoe in?

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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3 months 1 week ago #21 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Australia x Scotland HT x Wales HT @ 1.80 (Betstar)

I can’t see what can go wrong with that one – Australia at home should win that one - I missed the H 7.5 so took the ML with Scotland and Wales HT against two weak teams

Lachignole

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3 months 1 week ago #22 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's

shaft wrote: I see Manyonga is 9/10 for Long Jump gold. Is he not a shoe in?


Damn thought long jump was Thursday, hope you took some.

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3 months 6 days ago #23 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Many thanks to Oracle for his preview of the 7's


twitter: @goodforthegame

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3 months 6 days ago #24 by shaft
Replied by shaft on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's

southpaw wrote:

shaft wrote: I see Manyonga is 9/10 for Long Jump gold. Is he not a shoe in?


Damn thought long jump was Thursday, hope you took some.


Not as much as I should have..

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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3 months 6 days ago - 3 months 6 days ago #25 by Matador
Replied by Matador on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Duplicate post
Last edit: 3 months 6 days ago by Matador.

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3 months 6 days ago #26 by Matador
Replied by Matador on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Anyway have a view on the 200m final at 13:56 today?

Seems like quite a tight race with the top 2
Zharnel Hughes14/10
Jereem Richards16/10

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3 months 6 days ago #27 by Wies Bang
Replied by Wies Bang on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Had a go with Jereem Richards16/10.

Labored into the final.

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3 months 6 days ago #28 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Anyone betting on over/under on the 7s games ?

Cuts start being available and some of them look interesting

Australia v Samoa – 38.5
England v Jamaica – 51.5
Canada v Kenya – 34.5
NZ v Zambia – 57.5
Wales v Uganda – 40.5
Fiji v Sri Lanka – 57.5
Scotland v Papua NG – 41.5
SA v Malaysia – 64.5

First thoughts are going on over in the Wales and Scotland game. I think most those games in the tournament will end up in massive over. I like also the over in the Kenyan game but have issue trusting them

Lachignole

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3 months 6 days ago #29 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Competitive 200 final, for an interest Aaron Brown 7/1 to surprise the 2 market favourites.

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3 months 6 days ago #30 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's

RuggaBugga wrote: Trying to find out how the Semi Final draw works but can't see anything online


RuggaGOLDENBugga, did you find the schedule for semi by any chance please?
I keep looking but could not find the answer yet

Lachignole

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3 months 6 days ago #31 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Have sent out tweets to the world Bradie but no confirmation.
I think it must be based on points differential as that would inspire the teams to go full tilt for all 3 matches on Day 1? ... with that I have taken some Fiji -48.5 and SA -57.5

Malaysia finished 2nd last in there 3 tournament series, some of their results ...
Japan 44 Malaysia 0
Sri Lanka 45 Malaysia 0
China 36 Malaysia 10
Sri Lanka 41 Malaysia 7
Sri Lanka 22 Malaysia 5

If a team like Japan can put 44 past them, I am sure SA could put 60 past them.
SA's first game in Aussie7s this year ... SA 50 PNG 0

Malaysia results from 2014 CWG day 1
Wales 52 Malaysia 0
Samoa 54 Malaysia 0

I know its 4 years ago but they can't have progressed much?

Sri Lanka wont be able to live with the strength and power of Fiji who will also have a point to prove after missing out on 2014 and playing their full side in Hong Kong.

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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3 months 6 days ago #32 by Rohan11
Replied by Rohan11 on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's

RuggaBugga wrote: Have sent out tweets to the world Bradie but no confirmation.
I think it must be based on points differential as that would inspire the teams to go full tilt for all 3 matches on Day 1? ... with that I have taken some Fiji -48.5 and SA -57.5

Malaysia finished 2nd last in there 3 tournament series, some of their results ...
Japan 44 Malaysia 0
Sri Lanka 45 Malaysia 0
China 36 Malaysia 10
Sri Lanka 41 Malaysia 7
Sri Lanka 22 Malaysia 5

If a team like Japan can put 44 past them, I am sure SA could put 60 past them.
SA's first game in Aussie7s this year ... SA 50 PNG 0

Malaysia results from 2014 CWG day 1
Wales 52 Malaysia 0
Samoa 54 Malaysia 0

I know its 4 years ago but they can't have progressed much?

Sri Lanka wont be able to live with the strength and power of Fiji who will also have a point to prove after missing out on 2014 and playing their full side in Hong Kong.


Think the Fiji Handicap is Golden. I am with you all the way on this one

That said the SA handicap is one try to high. If SA manage to go all the way with the handicap considering the Malaysians do not score it means a converted try every 1.5 minutes, that to me is very difficult. Players tend to rest between tries scored and with a no case try SA will take there time to dot the ball down.

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3 months 6 days ago #33 by Rohan11
Replied by Rohan11 on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Best bets that stand out for me is:
Matchbet + Totals

AUS and over 38.5 @ 21/20
Kenya and over 34.5 @ 13/10

All at WSB

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3 months 6 days ago #34 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Decided to go for those 3 overs - if the final ranking is based on point differential, then we should see some high scoring games

Canada v Kenya over 34.5
Wales v Uganda over 40.5
Scotland v Papua NG over 41.5

Lachignole

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3 months 6 days ago #35 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
WSB have a cracking promo. Back anyone to win the CWG Sevens and if they lose in the final they will refund your stake in free bets! Cracking value on Fiji at 2,45/1

The only team that can beat Fiji is SA so its either a winner or a free bet (B)

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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3 months 6 days ago #36 by Zambusta
Replied by Zambusta on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's

Rohan11 wrote:

RuggaBugga wrote: Have sent out tweets to the world Bradie but no confirmation.
I think it must be based on points differential as that would inspire the teams to go full tilt for all 3 matches on Day 1? ... with that I have taken some Fiji -48.5 and SA -57.5

Malaysia finished 2nd last in there 3 tournament series, some of their results ...
Japan 44 Malaysia 0
Sri Lanka 45 Malaysia 0
China 36 Malaysia 10
Sri Lanka 41 Malaysia 7
Sri Lanka 22 Malaysia 5

If a team like Japan can put 44 past them, I am sure SA could put 60 past them.
SA's first game in Aussie7s this year ... SA 50 PNG 0

Malaysia results from 2014 CWG day 1
Wales 52 Malaysia 0
Samoa 54 Malaysia 0

I know its 4 years ago but they can't have progressed much?

Sri Lanka wont be able to live with the strength and power of Fiji who will also have a point to prove after missing out on 2014 and playing their full side in Hong Kong.


Think the Fiji Handicap is Golden. I am with you all the way on this one

That said the SA handicap is one try to high. If SA manage to go all the way with the handicap considering the Malaysians do not score it means a converted try every 1.5 minutes, that to me is very difficult. Players tend to rest between tries scored and with a no case try SA will take there time to dot the ball down.



Results with teams that scored over 57 points in recent commonwealth games.

2010:
South Africa 59–0 India
Samoa 61–0 Malaysia
England 59–7 Sri Lanka

2014:
Canada 68–5 Barbados
New Zealand 59–0 Barbados
Australia 62–7 Sri Lanka
England 57–0 Sri Lanka

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3 months 6 days ago #37 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's

bradie82 wrote:

RuggaBugga wrote: Trying to find out how the Semi Final draw works but can't see anything online


RuggaGOLDENBugga, did you find the schedule for semi by any chance please?
I keep looking but could not find the answer yet


Geez I have been googling like crazy trying to find this

I can't look past the Blitzbokke at 16/10 - Fiji could well be a bit tired after last week - would love to see that draw though

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3 months 6 days ago #38 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
This link suggests it's 1st seed v 4th and 2nd v 3rd if that helps solve the conundrum!

www.worldrugby.org/fixtures?lang=en
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3 months 5 days ago #39 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's

harry_rag wrote: This link suggests it's 1st seed v 4th and 2nd v 3rd if that helps solve the conundrum!

www.worldrugby.org/fixtures?lang=en


According to page 5 of that link the semi's are:
1st Pool B vs 1st Pool C
1st Pool A vs 1st Pool D

That is Fiji vs SA in the semi's ... not good for either of them as that should be the final.

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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3 months 5 days ago #40 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
GOLDEN ALERT!!!
Wales -14.5 vs Uganda at Playabets

Mentioned earlier in the week but have done some more research and the stars are aligning on this one! Wales have a proper squad with the likes of Wales XV flank Justin Tipuric and wing Hallom Amos joining the team. Its one of the strongest Wales teams for a while.

Uganda are in an absolute shambles, losing 26-0 to Germany in the HK Qualifier with their strongest team. They have decent players in Okia and Wokocach but thats about it. Uganda are on back2back tournaments so have used the SA7s as a yard-stick on how they perform in this spot. (The week before they played in Dubai and put in a solid performance against the Blitzies only losing 19-10 with the cap being SA-38.5 on the day).
Day 1 results in SA:
England 36 Uganda 0
Scotland 45 Uganda 0
Argentia 43 Uganda 7

Safe to say they lack the fitness for back to back tournies against elite teams. There is no way they will get a medal or even finish in the top 8 so they will probably use this as a squad selection camp for the World Cup with the match against Sri Lanka targeted as their must win.

I honestly cannot see anything other than a big Wales win and have taken some more of Wales -14.5 at Playabets

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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3 months 5 days ago #41 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's

RuggaBugga wrote:

harry_rag wrote: This link suggests it's 1st seed v 4th and 2nd v 3rd if that helps solve the conundrum!

www.worldrugby.org/fixtures?lang=en


According to page 5 of that link the semi's are:
1st Pool B vs 1st Pool C
1st Pool A vs 1st Pool D

That is Fiji vs SA in the semi's ... not good for either of them as that should be the final.


That's changed overnight from what I said re the seeds so certainly makes more sense. If that's right, there may be value in a sell on the outright index with Spreadex.

SA are 32-35 and Fiji 30-33 with the following points for 1st down to 4th place: 50-30-20-10

If they can't meet in the final, the only possible losing scenario on a sell at a combined 62 is 70 points for 1st and 3rd (an 8 point loss). Any other scenario would show a profit. Not convinced there's too much upside but might give it a bit more thought.

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3 months 5 days ago #42 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
I may be guilty of over analysing this now but it would be good to get confirmation that the semis are definitely structured in that way.

I'm thinking that would make dutching 7/2 Fiji and 5/1 SA for the Bronze medal a great bet, i.e. you'd get around 6/5 that one of those two teams wins the Bronze match. Given they're long odd-on to win their respective groups, if they meet in the semis you're guaranteed to have one of them in the match for 3rd place. Surely, whichever one that was, they would be a short price to win that game?

Feel free to point out the inevitable flaw in my logic!
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3 months 5 days ago #43 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Don't think there is any flaw to that logic Harry - the key being the confirmation that the semi's are set up that way

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3 months 5 days ago #44 by R3V3R3NT_
Replied by R3V3R3NT_ on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Great call on Wales boys!

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3 months 5 days ago #45 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
RB you biscuit, golden Wales arrives with ease. (B)

Am in Aus right now so getting to watch plenty of Commonwealth Games action, pitch for sevens looks massive.

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3 months 5 days ago #46 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Double in the 4x100 relay today:

M = SA
W = Jamaica

12/5

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3 months 5 days ago #47 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
for an extra interest 14/1 on Steele van Hoff in mens road race today.

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3 months 5 days ago - 3 months 5 days ago #48 by Taylor
Replied by Taylor on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Australia -42.5 v Jamaica
England v Samoa under 37.5
NZ v Kenya under 35.5
Last edit: 3 months 5 days ago by Taylor.

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3 months 4 days ago #49 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's
Keeping faith in the Welsh
Wales -36.5 vs SL

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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3 months 4 days ago #50 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's

southpaw wrote: for an extra interest 14/1 on Steele van Hoff in mens road race today.


The Hoff!! :cheer: (B) some comeback from him after a broken vertebrae in feb.

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