Commonwealth Games betting incl 7's

Surprised to see Blake 1/10 for the 100m today. Simbine is known to hold back in heats, he was 80% effort in semi's and still 4th fastest. Always at his best first half of year.

Think he can put some pressure on Blake and too big for me @ 8/1.

Simbine 8/1 for 100m, no harm done at that sort of price.

That was too easy well done South

Easiest 8/1 ever cashed! Cracking stuff South

Well Done South, great call (B) (B) (B)

(B) For the pick, at me for looking at this but not following!

Found 7/1 in a couple of places then forgot all about it till I've just returned to the thread.

Shot lads (B) Superb stuff from Simbine and Bruintjies.

Love events like commonwealth games, only need to have a little bit of knowledge and studying to catch the bookies out. They have no experienced traders for this sort of stuff.

Will be looking out for more value.

Are we using this thread for the sevens Brent?

Surely the Blitzboks should be much closer to evens for gold this weekend.

18/10 looks very tasty.

shaft wrote: Are we using this thread for the sevens Brent?

Surely the Blitzboks should be much closer to evens for gold this weekend.

18/10 looks very tasty.

Fiji are the best value at 3/1. This tournament is different to usual IRB7s as only the top of each pool go into the Gold Medal Semi's (Team that finishes 2nd goes into the 5th -8th Semis), bottom 2 teams of each pool are knocked out.

Trying to find out how the Semi Final draw works but can't see anything online.

Fiji were not allowed to compete in the 2014 CWG so they will be motivated for a Gold here and will be sharper after HK. I think 3/1 on the Feeeeeeeej is cracking value, especially if they get Aus/Eng in their Semi ...

RuggaBugga wrote:
Fiji are the best value at 3/1.

Thanks Agree- I'll take 5 units on that

First caps are out for the 7s

Australia -10.5 v Samoa
England -42.5 v Jamaica
Canada +7.5 v Kenya
NZ -48.5 v Zambia
Wales -12.5 v Uganda
Fiji -48.5 Sri Lanka
Scotland -20.5 v Papua NG
SA -57.5 v Malaysia

Wales H looks like the best bet

Thanks Bradie, what book is that?

RuggaBugga wrote: Thanks Bradie, what book is that?

Bet365

bradie82 wrote: First caps are out for the 7s

Australia -10.5 v Samoa
England -42.5 v Jamaica
Canada +7.5 v Kenya
NZ -48.5 v Zambia
Wales -12.5 v Uganda
Fiji -48.5 Sri Lanka
Scotland -20.5 v Papua NG
SA -57.5 v Malaysia

Wales H looks like the best bet

Fiji
scotland and AUS will see my money on the handicap

Wales -12.5 is to low and going 3 units on it
Uganda played last week end and lost 24-10 against Japan and 26-0 against Germany while Wales rested key players - no brainer

Need these SA bookies to price up!

WSB has wales -15.5 , should still be to low.

Have taken the following treble
Wales -15.5
Scotland -16.6
Aus -7.5

ODDS: 6/1

All over Wales -15.5!
Wales 26 Uganda 7 (Shield Final in Dubai)

Then Uganda did quite well in SA, the weekend after their first game was against England. Cap was +25.5. England won 36-0. So they are in the same situational spot and could be a bit tired while Wales are fully rested. Think Wales go full tilt in their 1st game, rest players against Sri Lanka in 2nd game and then all or nothing against Fiji last game. Points matter in the CWG so they will be targeting plenty tries.

Wales -15.5 v Uganda is GOLDEN

I see Manyonga is 9/10 for Long Jump gold. Is he not a shoe in?

Australia x Scotland HT x Wales HT @ 1.80 (Betstar)

I can’t see what can go wrong with that one – Australia at home should win that one - I missed the H 7.5 so took the ML with Scotland and Wales HT against two weak teams

shaft wrote: I see Manyonga is 9/10 for Long Jump gold. Is he not a shoe in?

Damn thought long jump was Thursday, hope you took some.

southpaw wrote:

shaft wrote: I see Manyonga is 9/10 for Long Jump gold. Is he not a shoe in?

Damn thought long jump was Thursday, hope you took some.

Not as much as I should have..

Duplicate post

Anyway have a view on the 200m final at 13:56 today?

Seems like quite a tight race with the top 2
Zharnel Hughes14/10
Jereem Richards16/10

Had a go with Jereem Richards16/10.

Labored into the final.

Anyone betting on over/under on the 7s games ?

Cuts start being available and some of them look interesting

Australia v Samoa – 38.5
England v Jamaica – 51.5
Canada v Kenya – 34.5
NZ v Zambia – 57.5
Wales v Uganda – 40.5
Fiji v Sri Lanka – 57.5
Scotland v Papua NG – 41.5
SA v Malaysia – 64.5

First thoughts are going on over in the Wales and Scotland game. I think most those games in the tournament will end up in massive over. I like also the over in the Kenyan game but have issue trusting them

Competitive 200 final, for an interest Aaron Brown 7/1 to surprise the 2 market favourites.

RuggaBugga wrote: Trying to find out how the Semi Final draw works but can't see anything online

RuggaGOLDENBugga, did you find the schedule for semi by any chance please?
I keep looking but could not find the answer yet

Have sent out tweets to the world Bradie but no confirmation.
I think it must be based on points differential as that would inspire the teams to go full tilt for all 3 matches on Day 1? ... with that I have taken some Fiji -48.5 and SA -57.5

Malaysia finished 2nd last in there 3 tournament series, some of their results ...
Japan 44 Malaysia 0
Sri Lanka 45 Malaysia 0
China 36 Malaysia 10
Sri Lanka 41 Malaysia 7
Sri Lanka 22 Malaysia 5

If a team like Japan can put 44 past them, I am sure SA could put 60 past them.
SA's first game in Aussie7s this year ... SA 50 PNG 0

Malaysia results from 2014 CWG day 1
Wales 52 Malaysia 0
Samoa 54 Malaysia 0

I know its 4 years ago but they can't have progressed much?

Sri Lanka wont be able to live with the strength and power of Fiji who will also have a point to prove after missing out on 2014 and playing their full side in Hong Kong.

RuggaBugga wrote: Have sent out tweets to the world Bradie but no confirmation.
I think it must be based on points differential as that would inspire the teams to go full tilt for all 3 matches on Day 1? ... with that I have taken some Fiji -48.5 and SA -57.5

Malaysia finished 2nd last in there 3 tournament series, some of their results ...
Japan 44 Malaysia 0
Sri Lanka 45 Malaysia 0
China 36 Malaysia 10
Sri Lanka 41 Malaysia 7
Sri Lanka 22 Malaysia 5

If a team like Japan can put 44 past them, I am sure SA could put 60 past them.
SA's first game in Aussie7s this year ... SA 50 PNG 0

Malaysia results from 2014 CWG day 1
Wales 52 Malaysia 0
Samoa 54 Malaysia 0

I know its 4 years ago but they can't have progressed much?

Sri Lanka wont be able to live with the strength and power of Fiji who will also have a point to prove after missing out on 2014 and playing their full side in Hong Kong.

Think the Fiji Handicap is Golden. I am with you all the way on this one

That said the SA handicap is one try to high. If SA manage to go all the way with the handicap considering the Malaysians do not score it means a converted try every 1.5 minutes, that to me is very difficult. Players tend to rest between tries scored and with a no case try SA will take there time to dot the ball down.

Best bets that stand out for me is:
Matchbet + Totals

AUS and over 38.5 @ 21/20
Kenya and over 34.5 @ 13/10

All at WSB

Decided to go for those 3 overs - if the final ranking is based on point differential, then we should see some high scoring games

Canada v Kenya over 34.5
Wales v Uganda over 40.5
Scotland v Papua NG over 41.5

WSB have a cracking promo. Back anyone to win the CWG Sevens and if they lose in the final they will refund your stake in free bets! Cracking value on Fiji at 2,45/1

The only team that can beat Fiji is SA so its either a winner or a free bet (B)

Rohan11 wrote:

RuggaBugga wrote: Have sent out tweets to the world Bradie but no confirmation.
I think it must be based on points differential as that would inspire the teams to go full tilt for all 3 matches on Day 1? ... with that I have taken some Fiji -48.5 and SA -57.5

Malaysia finished 2nd last in there 3 tournament series, some of their results ...
Japan 44 Malaysia 0
Sri Lanka 45 Malaysia 0
China 36 Malaysia 10
Sri Lanka 41 Malaysia 7
Sri Lanka 22 Malaysia 5

If a team like Japan can put 44 past them, I am sure SA could put 60 past them.
SA's first game in Aussie7s this year ... SA 50 PNG 0

Malaysia results from 2014 CWG day 1
Wales 52 Malaysia 0
Samoa 54 Malaysia 0

I know its 4 years ago but they can't have progressed much?

Sri Lanka wont be able to live with the strength and power of Fiji who will also have a point to prove after missing out on 2014 and playing their full side in Hong Kong.

Think the Fiji Handicap is Golden. I am with you all the way on this one

That said the SA handicap is one try to high. If SA manage to go all the way with the handicap considering the Malaysians do not score it means a converted try every 1.5 minutes, that to me is very difficult. Players tend to rest between tries scored and with a no case try SA will take there time to dot the ball down.

Results with teams that scored over 57 points in recent commonwealth games.

2010:
South Africa 59–0 India
Samoa 61–0 Malaysia
England 59–7 Sri Lanka

2014:
Canada 68–5 Barbados
New Zealand 59–0 Barbados
Australia 62–7 Sri Lanka
England 57–0 Sri Lanka

This link suggests it's 1st seed v 4th and 2nd v 3rd if that helps solve the conundrum!

www.worldrugby.org/fixtures?lang=en

harry_rag wrote: This link suggests it's 1st seed v 4th and 2nd v 3rd if that helps solve the conundrum!

www.worldrugby.org/fixtures?lang=en

According to page 5 of that link the semi's are:
1st Pool B vs 1st Pool C
1st Pool A vs 1st Pool D

That is Fiji vs SA in the semi's ... not good for either of them as that should be the final.

GOLDEN ALERT!!!
Wales -14.5 vs Uganda at Playabets

Mentioned earlier in the week but have done some more research and the stars are aligning on this one! Wales have a proper squad with the likes of Wales XV flank Justin Tipuric and wing Hallom Amos joining the team. Its one of the strongest Wales teams for a while.

Uganda are in an absolute shambles, losing 26-0 to Germany in the HK Qualifier with their strongest team. They have decent players in Okia and Wokocach but thats about it. Uganda are on back2back tournaments so have used the SA7s as a yard-stick on how they perform in this spot. (The week before they played in Dubai and put in a solid performance against the Blitzies only losing 19-10 with the cap being SA-38.5 on the day).
Day 1 results in SA:
England 36 Uganda 0
Scotland 45 Uganda 0
Argentia 43 Uganda 7

Safe to say they lack the fitness for back to back tournies against elite teams. There is no way they will get a medal or even finish in the top 8 so they will probably use this as a squad selection camp for the World Cup with the match against Sri Lanka targeted as their must win.

I honestly cannot see anything other than a big Wales win and have taken some more of Wales -14.5 at Playabets

RuggaBugga wrote:

harry_rag wrote: This link suggests it's 1st seed v 4th and 2nd v 3rd if that helps solve the conundrum!

www.worldrugby.org/fixtures?lang=en

According to page 5 of that link the semi's are:
1st Pool B vs 1st Pool C
1st Pool A vs 1st Pool D

That is Fiji vs SA in the semi's ... not good for either of them as that should be the final.

That's changed overnight from what I said re the seeds so certainly makes more sense. If that's right, there may be value in a sell on the outright index with Spreadex.

SA are 32-35 and Fiji 30-33 with the following points for 1st down to 4th place: 50-30-20-10

If they can't meet in the final, the only possible losing scenario on a sell at a combined 62 is 70 points for 1st and 3rd (an 8 point loss). Any other scenario would show a profit. Not convinced there's too much upside but might give it a bit more thought.

I may be guilty of over analysing this now but it would be good to get confirmation that the semis are definitely structured in that way.

I'm thinking that would make dutching 7/2 Fiji and 5/1 SA for the Bronze medal a great bet, i.e. you'd get around 6/5 that one of those two teams wins the Bronze match. Given they're long odd-on to win their respective groups, if they meet in the semis you're guaranteed to have one of them in the match for 3rd place. Surely, whichever one that was, they would be a short price to win that game?

Feel free to point out the inevitable flaw in my logic!

Great call on Wales boys!

RB you biscuit, golden Wales arrives with ease. (B)

Am in Aus right now so getting to watch plenty of Commonwealth Games action, pitch for sevens looks massive.

Double in the 4x100 relay today:

M = SA
W = Jamaica

12/5

for an extra interest 14/1 on Steele van Hoff in mens road race today.

Australia -42.5 v Jamaica
England v Samoa under 37.5
NZ v Kenya under 35.5

Keeping faith in the Welsh
Wales -36.5 vs SL

southpaw wrote: for an extra interest 14/1 on Steele van Hoff in mens road race today.

The Hoff!! (B) some comeback from him after a broken vertebrae in feb.