Super Rugby Week 10, Champions Cup semi's + other

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7 months 4 weeks ago #1 by Brent Graham
I recovered nicely from my bad beat in the Sharks v Bulls game (u49.5 pts) and looking forward to next weekend.

Here are my projected Super Rugby caps

Blues +8.5 v Highlanders
Waratahs -5.5 v Lions
Crusaders -38.5 v Sunwolves
Reds +8.5 v Chiefs
Bulls -12.5 v Rebels
Sharks -2.5 v Stormers
Brumbies -8.5 v Jaguares

The Champions Cup and Challenge Cup semi's take place this weekend and here are the caps

Gloucester -2.5 v Newcastle
Cardiff Blues -1.5 v Pau
Leinster -12.5 v Scarlets
Racing -4.5 v Munster

Look forward to your views

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7 months 3 weeks ago #2 by southpaw
My projected caps in brackets next to Brent’s -

Blues +8.5 v Highlanders (+6.5 Blues)
Waratahs -5.5 v Lions (-2.5 Tahs)
Crusaders -38.5 v Sunwolves (-44.5)
Reds +8.5 v Chiefs (+12.5)
Bulls -12.5 v Rebels (-9.5)
Sharks -2.5 v Stormers (-4.5 Sharks)
Brumbies -8.5 v Jaguares (-8.5)

Main difference Saders and Chiefs. Think Saders will pick a strong side and can see a huge smash coming if conditions good. Reds I feel are going to battle with pace of Chiefs game in their first match against NZ opposition this season.

On Champions Cup I’m sitting on 25/1 Racing outright but think Munster will be hard to beat, as even though game in France it’s not in Paris and the Irish will be their in masses.

Twitter @southpawZA
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7 months 3 weeks ago #3 by Northerner
Replied by Northerner on topic Super Rugby Week 10, Champions Cup semi's + other
Bet365 our with their caps:

Blues +6 vs Highlanders
Waratahs -1 vs Highlanders
Crusaders -37 vs Sunwolves
Reds +13 vs Chiefs
Bulls -7 vs Rebels
Sharks -2 vs Stormers
Brumbies -5 vs Los Jaguares

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7 months 3 weeks ago #4 by Stark

Northerner wrote: Bet365 our with their caps:

Blues +6 vs Highlanders
Waratahs -1 vs Highlanders
Crusaders -37 vs Sunwolves
Reds +13 vs Chiefs
Bulls -7 vs Rebels
Sharks -2 vs Stormers
Brumbies -5 vs Los Jaguares


Crusaders and Sharks the early value for me.

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7 months 3 weeks ago #5 by mackem
Many thanks to Couch critic for this weeks edition of Post Match Scuffle, Sharks Get Hitchcocked at Poolside! is available here

twitter: @goodforthegame

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7 months 3 weeks ago #6 by landrews77
Replied by landrews77 on topic Super Rugby Week 10, Champions Cup semi's + other
Sharks , Bulls , Crusaders are bankers

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7 months 3 weeks ago #7 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 10, Champions Cup semi's + other
A few of the local books out, Playabets go 9/10 the pair on the early caps and I like the Crusaders -37.5 and the Bulls -7.5 early doors.

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7 months 3 weeks ago #8 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 10, Champions Cup semi's + other
I also like the 5/6 Bulls/Bulls HT/FT at GGGaming

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

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7 months 3 weeks ago #9 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby Week 10, Champions Cup semi's + other
Bulls -7.5 looks too good to be true!

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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7 months 3 weeks ago #10 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby Week 10, Champions Cup semi's + other
Agree re Bulls, Rebels are half the team without Genia, who isn't travelling.

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7 months 3 weeks ago #11 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby Week 10, Champions Cup semi's + other
Bulls are seriously on the up and will be buzzing after that win in Durbs. Lions have a
Genia is a massive loss to the Rebels. Rebels are also punching way above their weight and have benefited from playing 5 of their 7 games at home this season. The Tahs and Canes put 50 past them and Bulls know their home form is key for a push in the SA Conference.

Bulls -7.5 is GOLDEN!

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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7 months 3 weeks ago #12 by ThoughtsOnSports
Replied by ThoughtsOnSports on topic Super Rugby Week 10, Champions Cup semi's + other
2 early strikes for me. Bulls -8.5 is golden. This line will definitely change before kick off. Lions to beat the Tahs. It's always difficult to play away and travel but the Lions are a superior side to the Tahs and at evens, it's too good not to punt.

3 units -8.5 Bulls.
2 units Lions.

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7 months 3 weeks ago #13 by mackem
Blues v Highlanders preview
5 units (1-10 scale) Highlanders -6.5 points 9/10 BetXchange

twitter: @goodforthegame

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7 months 3 weeks ago #14 by mackem
Stepping out of running order this week.

Brent also on the Bulls - train and worthy of an early call

Saturday, Bulls v Rebels preview
7 units Bulls -8.5 points, 19/20 at Playabets

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7 months 3 weeks ago #15 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby Week 10, Champions Cup semi's + other
More info backing the Bulls
Last 3 H2H
o 2016 – Bulls won 45-25 (Handicap was Bulls -5.5)
o 2014 – Bulls won 40-7 (Handicap was Bulls -19.5)
o 2011 – Bulls won 47-10 (Handicap was Bulls -24.5)
- Bulls have covered cap on each of last 3 times when at home against Rebels
- Rebels are 6th on combined log – Played 2 of the top 5 (1 home, 1 away), of 7 games played, 3 have been against the bottom 4 teams!
- Bulls are 8th on combined log – Played 4 of top 5 (2 home, 2 away)
- Rebels position on the log is due to easy wins against bad teams, there is no way the Rebels would have accumulated more points than the Bulls if Rebels had the Bulls fixture list.
- Bulls have the better coach
- Altitude factor
- Line has moved out to -10.5 at BetX

I am quite invested in the Bulls -7.5 and pretty happy that I am :woohoo:

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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7 months 3 weeks ago #16 by shaft
Rugga where do you find historical handicaps?

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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7 months 3 weeks ago #17 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby Week 10, Champions Cup semi's + other

shaft wrote: Rugga where do you find historical handicaps?


I just know them ...

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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7 months 3 weeks ago #18 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby Week 10, Champions Cup semi's + other
:woohoo: oddsportal.com

www.oddsportal.com/rugby-union/world/super-rugby/

Click on results and then you can go into previous seasons from 2009

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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7 months 3 weeks ago #19 by southpaw
Been travelling and missed early caps, where was Bulls -7.5 lads?

Twitter @southpawZA

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7 months 3 weeks ago #20 by The Vann

southpaw wrote: Been travelling and missed early caps, where was Bulls -7.5 lads?


Long gone since GFTG started betting. Was -8.5 @ 9/10 at BetXchange Monday at 15h00. 24 Hours later now -10.5 @ 9/10

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7 months 3 weeks ago #21 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 10, Champions Cup semi's + other

RuggaBugga wrote: :woohoo: oddsportal.com

www.oddsportal.com/rugby-union/world/super-rugby/

Click on results and then you can go into previous seasons from 2009


And here I was thinking you were running a massive spreadsheet :lol:

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

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7 months 3 weeks ago #22 by mackem
Sportingbet were still -8.5 Bulls at 9/10 earlier this afternoon and a few local books yet to go up.

Lions out early with their side.

Waratahs v Lions preview
3 units Waratahs win at 5/6 WSB, Playabets, Betway

twitter: @goodforthegame

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7 months 3 weeks ago #23 by slaterj
Shouts for the Super Rugby this weekend:

Blues v Highlanders (+7)
Waratahs (to win) v Lions
Crusaders (-38) v Sunwolves
Reds v Chiefs (-13)
Bulls (10) v Rebels
Sharks v Stormers (to win)


I like the look of the card this weekend and strongest players would be on the Saders and Bulls covering

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7 months 3 weeks ago #24 by R3V3R3NT_

RuggaBugga wrote: More info backing the Bulls
Last 3 H2H
o 2016 – Bulls won 45-25 (Handicap was Bulls -5.5)
o 2014 – Bulls won 40-7 (Handicap was Bulls -19.5)
o 2011 – Bulls won 47-10 (Handicap was Bulls -24.5)
- Bulls have covered cap on each of last 3 times when at home against Rebels
- Rebels are 6th on combined log – Played 2 of the top 5 (1 home, 1 away), of 7 games played, 3 have been against the bottom 4 teams!
- Bulls are 8th on combined log – Played 4 of top 5 (2 home, 2 away)
- Rebels position on the log is due to easy wins against bad teams, there is no way the Rebels would have accumulated more points than the Bulls if Rebels had the Bulls fixture list.
- Bulls have the better coach
- Altitude factor
- Line has moved out to -10.5 at BetX

I am quite invested in the Bulls -7.5 and pretty happy that I am :woohoo:


The Genia effect needs to be emphasized as well. Vs the Jags at the 50th minute Rebels are leading 19-6 and Genia is subbed after that they concede 19 points to 3. The Rebels backup scrumhalfs are terrible no Genia no chance.

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7 months 3 weeks ago #25 by takethegap
Replied by takethegap on topic Super Rugby Week 10, Champions Cup semi's + other

The Vann wrote:

southpaw wrote: Been travelling and missed early caps, where was Bulls -7.5 lads?


Long gone since GFTG started betting. Was -8.5 @ 9/10 at BetXchange Monday at 15h00. 24 Hours later now -10.5 @ 9/10


Betxchange were out at about 7 o'clock Monday morning with all the caps.They are very early the last couple of weeks. Also took a big strike on Bulls -7.5

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7 months 3 weeks ago #26 by southpaw

takethegap wrote:

The Vann wrote:

southpaw wrote: Been travelling and missed early caps, where was Bulls -7.5 lads?


Long gone since GFTG started betting. Was -8.5 @ 9/10 at BetXchange Monday at 15h00. 24 Hours later now -10.5 @ 9/10


Betxchange were out at about 7 o'clock Monday morning with all the caps.They are very early the last couple of weeks. Also took a big strike on Bulls -7.5


Thanks thought it might have been Betx.

Managed to get -8 @ 10/11 yesterday and have climbed aboard the Bulls train.

Twitter @southpawZA

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7 months 3 weeks ago #27 by Madkiwi
On 25+ @ $4.50 Nz Tab Crusaders halftime margin also halftime and full time minus.
On -6.5 Highlanders, Blues have 18 players out and good weather forecast in Auckland Friday night.

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7 months 3 weeks ago #28 by Madkiwi
www.facebook.com/groups/1632270960410813/
an awesome betting F/B page...very helpful

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7 months 3 weeks ago #29 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby Week 10, Champions Cup semi's + other

Brent Graham wrote:

RuggaBugga wrote: :woohoo: oddsportal.com

www.oddsportal.com/rugby-union/world/super-rugby/

Click on results and then you can go into previous seasons from 2009


And here I was thinking you were running a massive spreadsheet :lol:


There may be a spreadsheet ;)
This Bulls train is growing :woohoo:

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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7 months 3 weeks ago #30 by kt6747
I saw this and knew his biggest fan Hanrick would be devasted over the news. As a Sharks fan I would say 5 years to late, but knew Hanrick would be disappointed. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

www.sport24.co.za/Rugby/SuperRugby/shark...ls-it-a-day-20180418

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7 months 3 weeks ago #31 by hanrick

kt6747 wrote: I saw this and knew his biggest fan Hanrick would be devasted over the news. As a Sharks fan I would say 5 years to late, but knew Hanrick would be disappointed. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

www.sport24.co.za/Rugby/SuperRugby/shark...ls-it-a-day-20180418


Haha, KT! That's great news for Sharks rugby. Agree with you on the 5 years too late. He was okay early in his career, but has been a big liability the last few years.

Just for the record, I'm also on the Bulls train. Sounds like every man and his dog is on the Bulls minus. From my experience, not always a good thing and has me a bit nervous.

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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7 months 3 weeks ago #32 by sebokeng
Looks like one of the dilemmas at the moment is whether one should jump on the bulls -4.5 HT , or -10.5 FT. Oh boy which to choose which to choose...

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7 months 3 weeks ago #33 by ThoughtsOnSports
Replied by ThoughtsOnSports on topic Super Rugby Week 10, Champions Cup semi's + other
A little nibble for me this weekend.

Highlanders 1-12 @ 2.7 - 0.5 unit
Lions 1-12 @ 3.8 - 0.5 unit.

Not overly confident, but I think there is good value. As shaky as the Blues are, they are playing at home and it is a NZ derby. The Lions have been up and down this season but I believe that they will have too much quality for the Tahs. If the Stormers can lose by 2 points to the Tahs in Sydney, then the Lions will definitely give a better account.

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7 months 3 weeks ago #34 by mackem
Reds v Chiefs preview
4 units Chiefs -12.5 points 9/10 BetXchange

twitter: @goodforthegame

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7 months 3 weeks ago #35 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby Week 10, Champions Cup semi's + other

hanrick wrote: Just for the record, I'm also on the Bulls train. Sounds like every man and his dog is on the Bulls minus. From my experience, not always a good thing and has me a bit nervous.


Last weekend belonged to the Bookies, this weekend the punters strike back!

The handicap has shifted from -7.5 to -10.5 so clear that the money is on the Bulls. If the handicap stayed at -7.5 then I would be worried ;)

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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7 months 3 weeks ago #36 by Cettas
EPCR Podcast discussing the semi-finals

www.epcrugby.com/news/37552.php#.WtcViS5uapo

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7 months 3 weeks ago #37 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby Week 10, Champions Cup semi's + other
Hollywood open at Bulls -12.5

The Bulls train is gathering steam ...

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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7 months 3 weeks ago #38 by southpaw
This weekend looks like it could be a cracker, really like some of the match-ups and will also be adding this acca:

Highlanders -7.5
Chiefs -8.5
Bulls -8.5
Saders -36.5

7/1 with Betx.

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7 months 3 weeks ago #39 by Rohan11
Have any one seen any markets for The Supersport challenge?
Great competitions for punters to make money

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7 months 3 weeks ago #40 by bamiam

southpaw wrote: This weekend looks like it could be a cracker, really like some of the match-ups and will also be adding this acca:

Highlanders -7.5
Chiefs -8.5
Bulls -8.5
Saders -36.5

7/1 with Betx.


Have same acca, but Highlanders - 8.5 and Bulls - 9.5, same caps on other two @ 8.45/1 with Betx. If you add Brumbies - 5.5 you get 17.3/1. Considering adding Brumbies in a second acca 1/2 unit...

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7 months 3 weeks ago #41 by mackem
Many thanks to Oracle for his weekend Super Rugby plays

Friday preview
Saturday preview
Sunday preview

twitter: @goodforthegame

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7 months 3 weeks ago #42 by mackem
Crusaders v Sunwolves preview , little appetitite for the handicap here.
1.25 units Anytime tryscorer Ryan Crotty at 9/10 GGGaming

twitter: @goodforthegame

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7 months 3 weeks ago #43 by sebokeng
Nice juicy banker!!

Crusaders to be leading by 15+ points HT at 5/10 WSB. Make it a two team acca and add a simple bulls win and u get 9.5/10 without having to stress bout bulls -10.5 handicaps.
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7 months 3 weeks ago #44 by mackem
Sharks v Stormers preview
3 units Sharks -2.5 points 9/10 WSB, Sportingbet (you won't believe how long it took me to arrive at that conclusion) :)

twitter: @goodforthegame

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7 months 3 weeks ago #45 by harry_rag

mackem wrote: little appetitite for the handicap here.


Are you delivering your selections in the style of Ronnie Barker now? ;)
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7 months 3 weeks ago #46 by mackem

harry_rag wrote:

mackem wrote: little appetitite for the handicap here.


Are you delivering your selections in the style of Ronnie Barker now? ;)


Qualitity spot Harry :lol:

twitter: @goodforthegame
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7 months 3 weeks ago #47 by mackem
Last up, Brumbies v Jaguares on Sunday, preview here
5 units Brumbies -4.5 points 9/10 Sunbet

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7 months 3 weeks ago #48 by Northerner
Replied by Northerner on topic Super Rugby Week 10, Champions Cup semi's + other
Kwagga and Marx anytime tomorrow @ 5/2 each for me

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7 months 3 weeks ago #49 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 10, Champions Cup semi's + other
Small double for me tomorrow as cannot watch - Highlanders -8.5 onto the Waratahs to win at 5/6 - double comes in at 5/2

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7 months 3 weeks ago #50 by R3V3R3NT_
Have to agree with Hanrick O/U 7.5 Tries in the Blues High game seems really high. Besides opening game played against each other Highlanders have had 1 game go over this number in the last minute last week.The Blues just 2 games the capitulation vs the Sharks and away to the Lions. Going to have a solid go at Under 7.5 Tries.
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