Super Rugby Week 10, Champions Cup semi's + other

My projected caps in brackets next to Brent’s -

Blues +8.5 v Highlanders (+6.5 Blues)
Waratahs -5.5 v Lions (-2.5 Tahs)
Crusaders -38.5 v Sunwolves (-44.5)
Reds +8.5 v Chiefs (+12.5)
Bulls -12.5 v Rebels (-9.5)
Sharks -2.5 v Stormers (-4.5 Sharks)
Brumbies -8.5 v Jaguares (-8.5)

Main difference Saders and Chiefs. Think Saders will pick a strong side and can see a huge smash coming if conditions good. Reds I feel are going to battle with pace of Chiefs game in their first match against NZ opposition this season.

On Champions Cup I’m sitting on 25/1 Racing outright but think Munster will be hard to beat, as even though game in France it’s not in Paris and the Irish will be their in masses.

Bet365 our with their caps:

Blues +6 vs Highlanders
Waratahs -1 vs Highlanders
Crusaders -37 vs Sunwolves
Reds +13 vs Chiefs
Bulls -7 vs Rebels
Sharks -2 vs Stormers
Brumbies -5 vs Los Jaguares

Northerner wrote: Bet365 our with their caps:

Blues +6 vs Highlanders
Waratahs -1 vs Highlanders
Crusaders -37 vs Sunwolves
Reds +13 vs Chiefs
Bulls -7 vs Rebels
Sharks -2 vs Stormers
Brumbies -5 vs Los Jaguares

Crusaders and Sharks the early value for me.

Sharks , Bulls , Crusaders are bankers

Bulls -7.5 looks too good to be true!

Agree re Bulls, Rebels are half the team without Genia, who isn't travelling.

Bulls are seriously on the up and will be buzzing after that win in Durbs. Lions have a
Genia is a massive loss to the Rebels. Rebels are also punching way above their weight and have benefited from playing 5 of their 7 games at home this season. The Tahs and Canes put 50 past them and Bulls know their home form is key for a push in the SA Conference.

Bulls -7.5 is GOLDEN!

2 early strikes for me. Bulls -8.5 is golden. This line will definitely change before kick off. Lions to beat the Tahs. It's always difficult to play away and travel but the Lions are a superior side to the Tahs and at evens, it's too good not to punt.

3 units -8.5 Bulls.
2 units Lions.

More info backing the Bulls
Last 3 H2H
o 2016 – Bulls won 45-25 (Handicap was Bulls -5.5)
o 2014 – Bulls won 40-7 (Handicap was Bulls -19.5)
o 2011 – Bulls won 47-10 (Handicap was Bulls -24.5)
- Bulls have covered cap on each of last 3 times when at home against Rebels
- Rebels are 6th on combined log – Played 2 of the top 5 (1 home, 1 away), of 7 games played, 3 have been against the bottom 4 teams!
- Bulls are 8th on combined log – Played 4 of top 5 (2 home, 2 away)
- Rebels position on the log is due to easy wins against bad teams, there is no way the Rebels would have accumulated more points than the Bulls if Rebels had the Bulls fixture list.
- Bulls have the better coach
- Altitude factor
- Line has moved out to -10.5 at BetX

I am quite invested in the Bulls -7.5 and pretty happy that I am

Rugga where do you find historical handicaps?

shaft wrote: Rugga where do you find historical handicaps?

I just know them ...

oddsportal.com

www.oddsportal.com/rugby-union/world/super-rugby/

Click on results and then you can go into previous seasons from 2009

Been travelling and missed early caps, where was Bulls -7.5 lads?

southpaw wrote: Been travelling and missed early caps, where was Bulls -7.5 lads?

Long gone since GFTG started betting. Was -8.5 @ 9/10 at BetXchange Monday at 15h00. 24 Hours later now -10.5 @ 9/10

Shouts for the Super Rugby this weekend:

Blues v Highlanders (+7)
Waratahs (to win) v Lions
Crusaders (-38) v Sunwolves
Reds v Chiefs (-13)
Bulls (10) v Rebels
Sharks v Stormers (to win)


I like the look of the card this weekend and strongest players would be on the Saders and Bulls covering

RuggaBugga wrote: More info backing the Bulls
Last 3 H2H
o 2016 – Bulls won 45-25 (Handicap was Bulls -5.5)
o 2014 – Bulls won 40-7 (Handicap was Bulls -19.5)
o 2011 – Bulls won 47-10 (Handicap was Bulls -24.5)
- Bulls have covered cap on each of last 3 times when at home against Rebels
- Rebels are 6th on combined log – Played 2 of the top 5 (1 home, 1 away), of 7 games played, 3 have been against the bottom 4 teams!
- Bulls are 8th on combined log – Played 4 of top 5 (2 home, 2 away)
- Rebels position on the log is due to easy wins against bad teams, there is no way the Rebels would have accumulated more points than the Bulls if Rebels had the Bulls fixture list.
- Bulls have the better coach
- Altitude factor
- Line has moved out to -10.5 at BetX

I am quite invested in the Bulls -7.5 and pretty happy that I am

The Genia effect needs to be emphasized as well. Vs the Jags at the 50th minute Rebels are leading 19-6 and Genia is subbed after that they concede 19 points to 3. The Rebels backup scrumhalfs are terrible no Genia no chance.

The Vann wrote:

southpaw wrote: Been travelling and missed early caps, where was Bulls -7.5 lads?

Long gone since GFTG started betting. Was -8.5 @ 9/10 at BetXchange Monday at 15h00. 24 Hours later now -10.5 @ 9/10

Betxchange were out at about 7 o'clock Monday morning with all the caps.They are very early the last couple of weeks. Also took a big strike on Bulls -7.5

takethegap wrote:

The Vann wrote:

southpaw wrote: Been travelling and missed early caps, where was Bulls -7.5 lads?

Long gone since GFTG started betting. Was -8.5 @ 9/10 at BetXchange Monday at 15h00. 24 Hours later now -10.5 @ 9/10

Betxchange were out at about 7 o'clock Monday morning with all the caps.They are very early the last couple of weeks. Also took a big strike on Bulls -7.5

Thanks thought it might have been Betx.

Managed to get -8 @ 10/11 yesterday and have climbed aboard the Bulls train.

On 25+ @ $4.50 Nz Tab Crusaders halftime margin also halftime and full time minus.
On -6.5 Highlanders, Blues have 18 players out and good weather forecast in Auckland Friday night.

www.facebook.com/groups/1632270960410813/
an awesome betting F/B page...very helpful

Brent Graham wrote:

RuggaBugga wrote: oddsportal.com

www.oddsportal.com/rugby-union/world/super-rugby/

Click on results and then you can go into previous seasons from 2009

And here I was thinking you were running a massive spreadsheet

There may be a spreadsheet
This Bulls train is growing

I saw this and knew his biggest fan Hanrick would be devasted over the news. As a Sharks fan I would say 5 years to late, but knew Hanrick would be disappointed.

www.sport24.co.za/Rugby/SuperRugby/shark...ls-it-a-day-20180418

kt6747 wrote: I saw this and knew his biggest fan Hanrick would be devasted over the news. As a Sharks fan I would say 5 years to late, but knew Hanrick would be disappointed.

www.sport24.co.za/Rugby/SuperRugby/shark...ls-it-a-day-20180418

Haha, KT! That's great news for Sharks rugby. Agree with you on the 5 years too late. He was okay early in his career, but has been a big liability the last few years.

Just for the record, I'm also on the Bulls train. Sounds like every man and his dog is on the Bulls minus. From my experience, not always a good thing and has me a bit nervous.

Looks like one of the dilemmas at the moment is whether one should jump on the bulls -4.5 HT , or -10.5 FT. Oh boy which to choose which to choose...

A little nibble for me this weekend.

Highlanders 1-12 @ 2.7 - 0.5 unit
Lions 1-12 @ 3.8 - 0.5 unit.

Not overly confident, but I think there is good value. As shaky as the Blues are, they are playing at home and it is a NZ derby. The Lions have been up and down this season but I believe that they will have too much quality for the Tahs. If the Stormers can lose by 2 points to the Tahs in Sydney, then the Lions will definitely give a better account.

hanrick wrote: Just for the record, I'm also on the Bulls train. Sounds like every man and his dog is on the Bulls minus. From my experience, not always a good thing and has me a bit nervous.

Last weekend belonged to the Bookies, this weekend the punters strike back!

The handicap has shifted from -7.5 to -10.5 so clear that the money is on the Bulls. If the handicap stayed at -7.5 then I would be worried

EPCR Podcast discussing the semi-finals

www.epcrugby.com/news/37552.php#.WtcViS5uapo

Hollywood open at Bulls -12.5

The Bulls train is gathering steam ...

This weekend looks like it could be a cracker, really like some of the match-ups and will also be adding this acca:

Highlanders -7.5
Chiefs -8.5
Bulls -8.5
Saders -36.5

7/1 with Betx.

Have any one seen any markets for The Supersport challenge?
Great competitions for punters to make money

southpaw wrote: This weekend looks like it could be a cracker, really like some of the match-ups and will also be adding this acca:

Highlanders -7.5
Chiefs -8.5
Bulls -8.5
Saders -36.5

7/1 with Betx.

Have same acca, but Highlanders - 8.5 and Bulls - 9.5, same caps on other two @ 8.45/1 with Betx. If you add Brumbies - 5.5 you get 17.3/1. Considering adding Brumbies in a second acca 1/2 unit...

Nice juicy banker!!

Crusaders to be leading by 15+ points HT at 5/10 WSB. Make it a two team acca and add a simple bulls win and u get 9.5/10 without having to stress bout bulls -10.5 handicaps.

mackem wrote: little appetitite for the handicap here.

Are you delivering your selections in the style of Ronnie Barker now?

Kwagga and Marx anytime tomorrow @ 5/2 each for me

Have to agree with Hanrick O/U 7.5 Tries in the Blues High game seems really high. Besides opening game played against each other Highlanders have had 1 game go over this number in the last minute last week.The Blues just 2 games the capitulation vs the Sharks and away to the Lions. Going to have a solid go at Under 7.5 Tries.