Super Rugby Week 11 and other Rugby

Brent Graham wrote: A weekend of up and downs for me. The early Bulls bets land but got greedy and the points and tries bets fell short. Hit under 6.5 tries quite hard in the Sharks game and despite the Brumbies sending my Best Bet double belly up I won on the Supersport challenge to show a small profit on the weekend.

Onto week 11 and here are my projected handicaps

Hurricanes -38.5 v Sunwolves
Stormers -11.5 v Rebels
Reds +9.5 v Lions
Blues -5.5 v Jaguares (tough one to cap)
Brumbies +10.5 v Crusaders
Bulls -2.5 v Highlanders

Look forward to your views.

Agree with you on all of them bar two. Think the Lions will cover - against the Reds, Crusaders will cover - against the Brumbies. Looks a great card for next weekend and without doubt the standout game being Bulls v Highlanders. That one will be an absolute cracker

Also feel that -38.5 on the Hurricanes v Sunwolves is nowhere near enough. Shouldn't be fooled by how poor the Crusaders were against the Sunwolves this weekend and they allowed the Sunwolves to stay in the game, mainly down to their own stupidity. I think the Canes will destroy the Sunwolves and Ben Lam will have a field day

GG out

Hurricanes -39.5 v Sunwolves
Stormers -11.5 v Rebels
Reds +11.5 v Lions
Blues +5.5 v Jaguares
Brumbies +14.5 v Crusaders
Bulls +5.5 v Highlanders

Close predictions Beeej!
Bulls +5.5 is a cracker

Brent Graham wrote: Thanks RB I have taken some of the Bulls +5.5, was also going to climb into Blues +5.5 but see they are -9.5, not sure if that was just a quick re-adjustment on their side

Sorry typo my side, was always Blues -9.5 ... oops

Too earls on a Monday

After a weekend to forget 2 weeks ago I decided to give betting a miss this past weekend..

Early picks

Canes -39
Stormers -10
Bulls +5.5

All at GG gaming

WSB out with handicaps.

Canes -39.5
Stormers -11.5
Lions -12.5

Rest to follow

Rohan11 wrote: WSB out with handicaps.

Canes -39.5
Stormers -11.5
Lions -12.5

Rest to follow

Blues -8.5
crusaders - 15.5
highlanders -4.5

Looking forward to the coming weekend. Week 10 should have been very profitable for me as I landed a few nice bets, but got greedy on others and got burnt by the Brumbies.

VERY CONFIDENT

Canes -38.5. If weather holds up i could see them replicating the score of the previous meeting with the Sunwolves, which was 66 points.

Lions -12.5. I can't believe this isn't bigger. With the exception of the Canes the Lions probably have the best scoring ability in the comp, where the Reds have struggled to put up 20 in a game. I'll definitely look at points markets for this game as well.

Bulls on the board. I think the Bulls margin against the Rebels flattered the opposition and was a result of the Rebels' negative approach to the game. The Highlanders have not traveled well over all and I believe the Bulls will only get better from here, Mitch keeps demanding that. Should be a 1-12 margin, but I won't be surprised if it's 13+.

LESS CONFIDENT

Crusaders -14.5. I'm less confident here as the Crusaders have been unconvincing in their last few matches. They also lack a reliable kicker/10. That being said the Brumbies have been shocking and their 10 would struggle to make a varsity cup team in SA.

TENTATIVE

Rebels +11.5. The Rebels aren't convincing and are definitely in a downward spiral, but the Stormers have some serious issues higher up in the franchise structure. I think if the Rebels adopt the same approach as they did against the Bulls they will run the Stormers close and might even win the game.

Jags +8.5. Most difficult pick of the round for me, based purely on the unpredictability of the teams. The Jags have pitched in their last games and seem to building some consistency. The Blues on paper are a very talented side and if they pitch on the day they could blow the Jags away. Also a factor is that the Jags should be without their captain and star wing/try scorer for this match. In summary the Blues could win by 20 or the Jags could win, but I'll keep my involvement limited and favored towards the Jags on the plus.

am not convinced about Bulls against Highlanders, and hoping for some support for Bulls in markets this week to try get a Highlanders cap around -3. Think the Kiwi's will rip the Bulls apart on counter-attack when Bulls make mistakes in their expansive game.

Canes on the best minus would be the standout for me if conditions good.

southpaw wrote: am not convinced about Bulls against Highlanders, and hoping for some support for Bulls in markets this week to try get a Highlanders cap around -3. Think the Kiwi's will rip the Bulls apart on counter-attack when Bulls make mistakes in their expansive game.

Canes on the best minus would be the standout for me if conditions good.

I have helped you. First bet I placed - 5 units on Bulls +4.5 @ 17/20

Just waiting for some rugger-bugger to point out the Stormers are crap so that I can put the other 5 units on the Rebels plus. Where's Hanrick when you need him

Might well be right on the Bulls game SP, but I don't see that happening. The Bulls have been strong defensively and the frailties that the Highlanders have exploited were against below average teams.

I see the Canes line on BetX has moved to 40.4 already. The Stormers cap interestingly has moved to 14.5, wish I had waited on this one, but I'll definitely add some more on Rebels plus here.

Predictions for the coming weekend in the Super Rugby:

Hurricanes (-39) v Sunwolves
Reds v Lions (-12)
Brumbies v Crusaders (-14)
Bulls v Highlanders (-5)

Staying well clear of the Stormers v Rebels and Blues v Jaguares games as i believe all of these sides are far too unpredictable and quite frankly totally untrustworthy. As mentioned on the thread earlier on i think the Canes should be at least -45 possibly more so definitely value in the -39 as big as that sounds.

Happy to trust the Lions covering as the Reds cannot score tries and are one dimensional when it comes to their tactics and play. Bulls v Highlanders will be a belter but feel as though the Highlanders will have just that bit more nous but either way both sides like to express themselves with forward play and i feel as though it will be an overs kind of game

BetX must have got some serious ammo on the Stormers - to move it out to +14.5

I think that is too high, interested to see what Hollies open up with ...

That Rebels 14.5 is huge. I'm on.

I've taken a chunk of Crusaders -14

No doubt their 1st team players will return (Whitelock, Taylor, Taufua, Havili) and Mo'unga may even return at 10, which would be massive for them.

Pocock was poor by his standards on the weekend and he limped off at the end. Can't see him lining up for the Brumbies this week which would be a massive loss for them.
Their line-out has been flakey, scrum not imposing and I've been surprised how poor their defence has been this term. Plus they struggle to score tries!

Just can't see how this will be any less than a 20 point win for the Saders, more if Mo'unga features.

shaft wrote: That Rebels 14.5 is huge. I'm on.

I'm on - Thanks for the heads-up

Nice one lads - GFTG Forum money sees the BetX Rebels quote back to +13.5

#wearethemarket

Couch Critic wrote: Nice one lads - GFTG Forum money sees the BetX Rebels quote back to +13.5

Hope there's more money for the Rebels so I can get a lower minus on the Stormers. Very happy to take the minus at the current line though.

hanrick wrote:

Couch Critic wrote: Nice one lads - GFTG Forum money sees the BetX Rebels quote back to +13.5

Hope there's more money for the Rebels so I can get a lower minus on the Stormers. Very happy to take the minus at the current line though.

I was just talking about the "swaying power" of the forum Hanrick. Personally also have a sneaky feeling that the Stormers might just deliver a good performance on Friday for once. But they haven't really given me a solid reason to lump on this hunch so for now I'll wait and see if the handicap doesn't move down another point or two. But either way I don't see myself having a big go as neither the Rebels nor the Stormers are teams I want to be trusting with too much of my cash at present.

hanrick wrote:

Couch Critic wrote: Nice one lads - GFTG Forum money sees the BetX Rebels quote back to +13.5

Hope there's more money for the Rebels so I can get a lower minus on the Stormers. Very happy to take the minus at the current line though.

G Bets has Stormers - 10.5 and surprisingly a better match price of 0.25 than betxchange' 0.20

Not trusting the Rebels with current injury situation, will either be a stormers minus or no bet for me.
Coleman and D Haylett-Petty both coming off head knocks with DHP already taking a few weeks off earlier this season with lingering concussion symptoms. Uelese their back up hooker also looked in bad shape with arm injury and Genia is obviously also out of this SA tour. They battled hard late vs Bulls but can't trust a depleted team with my money .

Interesting to see some of the comments on here regarding the Stormers v Rebels game on Friday and the debate about the line movement.

I have to say and also agree with a few others that both of these teams are untrustworthy and would be approaching the game with caution. 14.5 is a big line so either the bookies are aware of something or having given too much room to the Stormers. Would be interesting to see if there is any movement in the next 24-48 hours

I think the Stormers handicap are spot on. And I am more then happy to back them on the -.
They are back at home and the Rebels really don't have anything firing about them at the moment. I also think the fact that JM had complaint about the Rebels slowing the game down will have an impact on the the Ref and the Stormers will be fired up for a good win in front of there home crowd.

Biiiiiiiiiiig bet on Saracens-15 away at London Irish. There’s no reason why they won’t field a strong team, just had a week off, and had a big win the week before. They’ll want a bonus point for a home semi final

Some would say it’s golden...

Northerner wrote: Biiiiiiiiiiig bet on Saracens-15 away at London Irish. There’s no reason why they won’t field a strong team, just had a week off, and had a big win the week before. They’ll want a bonus point for a home semi final

Some would say it’s golden...

Saw that and to my untrained eye regarding the Aviva premiership I thought there must have been some reason the cap was so low but I’ve happily jumped on board at -16. Thanks for the heads up.

I have been thinking about this Wellington Sunwolves line. There is no way Wellington fields their strongest lineup and even then they will be pulling players to rest and rotate throughout the game. I think the play maybe to bet in play. Let Lam run in 2 tries in 15 minutes and the line blow out to the 50's and take the Sun-wolves +. Wellington will probably want to put this game away early and cruise to the finish injury free.

R3V3R3NT_ wrote: I have been thinking about this Wellington Sunwolves line. There is no way Wellington fields their strongest lineup and even then they will be pulling players to rest and rotate throughout the game. I think the play maybe to bet in play. Let Lam run in 2 tries in 15 minutes and the line blow out to the 50's and take the Sun-wolves +. Wellington will probably want to put this game away early and cruise to the finish injury free.

Canes team has been announced and to me it looks weak. Unfortunately I have already commited to the - 39.5, but luckily not a big bet. Hope for a quick start by the Canes and will then definitely take some cover.

Northerner wrote: Biiiiiiiiiiig bet on Saracens-15 away at London Irish. There’s no reason why they won’t field a strong team, just had a week off, and had a big win the week before. They’ll want a bonus point for a home semi final

Some would say it’s golden...

Indeed this is a huge value especially when the Irish lost by 40 against Exeter 10 days ago and I don t see why it would be different on Sunday - only issue could be the rain as the forecast is rain all day long.
On the Friday night game, Leicester @ 1.50 on the board is quite interesting as well - that would be a tough game as those 2 (Glou and Sale as well) are fighting for the last spot for the semi final but after losing at home against Saints in the last round, I can't see Tigers losing again at home this week end.

Northerner wrote: Biiiiiiiiiiig bet on Saracens-15 away at London Irish. There’s no reason why they won’t field a strong team, just had a week off, and had a big win the week before. They’ll want a bonus point for a home semi final

Some would say it’s golden...

You had me at GOLDEN! Watched Sarries on the weekend and they played like men possessed, think they take that hunger into the Irish game. If rain stays away I will take some more but firmly in the Sarries -15.5 camp

Looking forward to some of the points lines this weekend. Been a cold front in Cape Town this week, will be wet underfoot. Will be looking at unders in that game.

Also looking foward to the points line in the bulls vs landers game as well as Cheethas vs Kings. Will be looking at overs

Oracle

I’d first just like to say I really like your work. I’ve been watching your videos and then reading your blogs since almost the first week you started doing them. I was on the website tonight, reading your ‘weekly whine’ bemoaning someone who called you a bad tipster, and the blog ended with saying you will never charge for tips etc etc

All well and good. However, the next post on your page was you deciding to start advertising what is effectively an early tipping (with additional bets) service for £10 a month! Now I understand your fundamental tips are going to be remaining the same, but the juxtaposition of the two posts just got to me a little bit - it felt a tad hypocritical to call out those who charge for tips before offering a VIP service moments later. Again, I get that your core tips aren’t changing, but I can’t help but feel that this could be a stepping stone to you deciding to charge for it all in the future.

This isn’t personal - I really enjoy how you present your videos and they are enjoyable to watch - it was just something I felt needed saying after I was on your website earlier.

Would be interested to get other people’s thoughts, either for or against what I just put out there.

He does contradict earlier statements:- "As you know I do not charge for my tipping service, I am of the opinion that Tipsters that charge often do not make it as winning punters, so if you want to congratulate me, give me criticism, thank me or a F@#K you to say, or just want to get in touch send me an email to"

Suppose though on the other hand he does put in the hard yards and from his track record I could follow his whatsapp service.I've had my fair share in the different styles of paid tipsters,if you don't have time for research and they produce @ over 53% why not.

Northerner wrote: Oracle

I’d first just like to say I really like your work. I’ve been watching your videos and then reading your blogs since almost the first week you started doing them. I was on the website tonight, reading your ‘weekly whine’ bemoaning someone who called you a bad tipster, and the blog ended with saying you will never charge for tips etc etc

All well and good. However, the next post on your page was you deciding to start advertising what is effectively an early tipping (with additional bets) service for £10 a month! Now I understand your fundamental tips are going to be remaining the same, but the juxtaposition of the two posts just got to me a little bit - it felt a tad hypocritical to call out those who charge for tips before offering a VIP service moments later. Again, I get that your core tips aren’t changing, but I can’t help but feel that this could be a stepping stone to you deciding to charge for it all in the future.

This isn’t personal - I really enjoy how you present your videos and they are enjoyable to watch - it was just something I felt needed saying after I was on your website earlier.

Would be interested to get other people’s thoughts, either for or against what I just put out there.

@Northerner & @Brazil

Thank you for the comments, and YES I am 100% against paid tipsters, what this essentially is, is an offer to see a bit more of what I am thinking as well as what I take outside of the plays I do on Wednesday. Unfortunately in today’s world it’s virtually impossible to please everyone. The idea came up after I noticed a growing trend of friends, colleagues and people I meet asking me what I like, especially on Monday or Tuesday, it’s a little unfair that other people do not have access to that information.
The other problem is on occasion I SWITCH or PRESS, this happens at Game Time, or HT or even late on a Thursday, that information in the right hands is worth money to a serious punter. I will NOT change the Wednesday late offering in any way.
Just like you guys I am also interested in knowing what people think, in fact @Brent would probably want to have this on another forum. I asked around ten personal friends and they all said it was fair, R500 was spoken about then R200 and I honestly felt that at R99 it was more than fair, and quite frankly if you spend less than say R200 on a weekend this service is not applicable to you.
Further on in saying that I would also say that if you are happy to punt on a Wednesday night / Thursday morning than it is also not value to you.
At the end of the day it’s a paid VIP service and not a tipping service, the tipping will always be FREE and I am 100% serious about that.

@ Oracle
Thanks for your hard work, videos, website, facebook, twitter – I know it takes a while to keep all of those updated and this is very appreciated.
Thanks also for your honest answer but there is something that is bothering in your answer :
“ The idea came up after I noticed a growing trend of friends, colleagues and people I meet asking me what I like, especially on Monday or Tuesday, it’s a little unfair that other people do not have access to that information.”
Why do you have to charge for it? Why not simply share your early thoughts like most of us are doing here on Monday morning once the odd are available.
I ve been a punter sharing information, feeling etc on forum for more than 10 years and frankly speaking it never crossed my mind to make people pay for it.
To me, punters should be a community looking at beating the bookies and making money on their back, not on other punter’s back but I guess in today’s world, everything has to be related to business. I clearly also don’t have the same state of mind that all those punters opening a VIP and I hope I never will.
Wish you all the best and will keep reading your website and watch your videos (love the view and the truck horn )

bradie82 wrote: @ Oracle
Thanks for your hard work, videos, website, facebook, twitter – I know it takes a while to keep all of those updated and this is very appreciated.
Thanks also for your honest answer but there is something that is bothering in your answer :
“ The idea came up after I noticed a growing trend of friends, colleagues and people I meet asking me what I like, especially on Monday or Tuesday, it’s a little unfair that other people do not have access to that information.”
Why do you have to charge for it? Why not simply share your early thoughts like most of us are doing here on Monday morning once the odd are available.
I ve been a punter sharing information, feeling etc on forum for more than 10 years and frankly speaking it never crossed my mind to make people pay for it.
To me, punters should be a community looking at beating the bookies and making money on their back, not on other punter’s back but I guess in today’s world, everything has to be related to business. I clearly also don’t have the same state of mind that all those punters opening a VIP and I hope I never will.
Wish you all the best and will keep reading your website and watch your videos (love the view and the truck horn )

@Mackem and @Bradie82

Thank you for your points, and yes I agree with you to a certain extent, this forum is great and as @Brent will know I am a friend of his and have been for many years, this website is truly great, a place for fellow punters to come together and contribute for the greater good.

However at R99 I honestly felt that it was too cheap to worry about and enough to make you decide whether its worth it or not.

Okay guys so my opinion on a few things (sorry if I go off topic of the thread for a bit).

Firstly how I use any punting opinions is to read as much as I can and see how many agree with the thoughts I have on the game going into the weekend and that will largely depend on how big I punt that specific market/game - this is pretty much the same approach as what I would have when investing in the JSE; you do your own research and when the opinions of other "experts" align to yours you jump in.

To me the nice thing about GFTG is that we can get the opinions from the likes of Sean, Brent, Hanrick, Oracle, South, etc. free of charge. I haven't really come across a sports punter who shows an incredible profit that makes me believe they are far superior market experts to myself (ie I have not met the Warren Buffet of sports punting). We all agree that the guys I named above are some of our top rugby experts yet I have basically seen just as many Lisa Simpson pics on Oracle's site as Chicken Dinners; Hanrick has had a bad run; I've seen a "golden" play lose; and a while ago BG was also cursing his bad punting form. Also, I enjoy the challenge of analysing games and coming up with my own plays rather than just becoming a robot who blindly follows the thoughts of another, so no unfortunately I will never be paying for punting advice - EVER, but really enjoy and value reading the input of all punters going into a weekend.

Onto the games:

After a stellar punting weekend last weekend I have been holding fire and hoping something will jump out at me as much as the Bulls handicap bet did last week, but alas nothing yet.

For mind there is no SUPER MAX, GOLDEN or CRAZY QUOTES out there this weekend and I will firstly be implementing the cautious approach and trying to show enough discipline to not fire just for the sake of firing into something.

Hurricanes to me have a strong enough outfit and I reckon a second half handicap on the Canes is the way to go. Wolves will try and play catch-up in the second stint and there is no better side at capitalizing on mistakes than the men from Wellington.

The Stormers game still has me wrecking my brain (I see even Hanrick and Oracle have a lovers quarrel over this one). No Haylett-petty at the back and no Genia along with the fact that I struggle to trust Aussie sides with my money has me holding fire at the moment. Points and tries should be the only market I consider closer to kick-off.

Reds have been poo, Lions have rediscovered their form. If the Lions don't make the mistake of looking past this one they should be able to cover the handicap. Lions points/tries could be the prudent play here.

Jags have been the team on form and the Blues are hapless. One never knows when this Blues team will suddenly discover their inner Kiwi but I'm hoping its not this week (they also have a few new faces in the side). I will be including Jags +14.5 into a few multiples for the weekend.

Brumbies have been pathetic and a team who has a flyhalf who can effectively only pass to one side should pick up a hiding at the hands of the Crusaders. Saders -14.5 for me and also some -9.5 into a few multiples. Perhaps low Brumbies points is another option.

Then we have the Bulls. I'm really looking forward to this one. Seeing an SA team battle a NZ side in South Africa is how we can judge where our game is at present. I think the Landers will take the win and Highlanders 1-12 is what I'm fancying at present.

Happy hunting guys (B)

I have and will always be against any form of paid tipping. I decide on my ow bets and will never follow someone blindly. I do however like to hear other punters' opinions and sometimes it puts me onto a bet I didn't think of.

The longer the week goes, the more I like the Stormers. Also warming nicely to the Crusaders. After initially liking the Hurricanes I am starting to have my doubts about them. Can't have Aso at 12.

Here is my 2 cents on the paid for tipping service ...
Think each forum member on here is making loot, we wouldn't be doing this if we were not making loot over the long-term so each forum member is a Grade A punter.
I think the Oracle's target marketing is the Grade C punter that has some spare change and wants to tell his mates that he is on the Bulls +5.5 this weekend at the braai and look like a hero when they win straight up, this punter doesn't have time to read previews or the brain power to create a spreadsheet. R100 a month is pocket change, especially to the UK market and does pay the hosting and time bills I guess.

As Couch mentioned, the Oracle's videos are good viewing and always good insight.

This site is great as it highlights value in sports/markets that I wouldn't normally punt - Souths tip of Simbini for gold at 8/1 springs to mind or a long term punt on Brighton to win League 1 (One of my all time faves from a few years back)
It is also a great source of banter, Oracle's tipping service wont succeed with the forum members but good luck to him with the Grade C punters.

And Couch, Golden punts have lost but there have been plenty more Chicken Dinners

I am not for paid services in betting, whether it is R99 or R10.

The size of the fee does not matter that much, as if you get enough subscribers you get a nice amount by multiplication.
It's not that you get R99 in total, but from everyone, and from 10 or 20 subscribers up the picture changes.
And if the fee amount is really insignificant, then why charge it at all?

I'm against paid services because that gives me the message that the tipster doesn't make money on his own bets, so he needs the extra income.
Especially when it started as a free service and on top of that, the quality of this forum is exceptional.

And it's free!

Anyway, back to the rugby!

B Barret anytime @10/11
Vince Aso anytime @10/11

I fee those are both pretty good value, considering they’re not far off those odds when playing much stronger opposition, let alone the Sunwolves. Also taken the -39