Super Rugby Week 11 and other Rugby

Back to the Rugga
Canes v Wolves
BetX have Wolves +41.5 at even money in their Rugby Specials. That looks very tasty. We are getting such inflated lines due to the massive 83-17 win in Tokyo last year. As Hanrick mentioned, Aso at 12 does not inspire confidence and the Sunwolves have points in them. Been very impressed with Lappies, the Wolves will know how that embarrassment last year felt and expect them to put in a far better performance.
The Canes also have a massive match next weekend at home against the Lions so expect the bench to get a full run. Canes just need the bonus point win, makes no difference if they win by 28 or 48 ... 41.5 is just too high and pretty close to golden

@Quill & @Hanrick you guys are 100% right and I agree with everything that you said, the most important comment came from @RuggaBugga he is 100% spot on with his analysis of this Service, its not tipping, that is FREE on Wednesday, this is an added service which will take time out of my day and will benefit 'C' Team punters, that don't have time to sift through 4 plus pages of forum banter looking for the right play. PS I like the Braai bragging comment and I can certainly picture it happening often!!

Lastly if its not clear to everyone that I do make money and do not charge for tipping then I think the point of the service is being missed.

Hanrick is really starting to twist my (rubber) arm into backing the Capetonians tomorrow...

RB I hear you on the Canes only needing a win and taking the foot off the pedal - but all I see is Barrett x2 and Lam causing havoc. On that point Northerner those odds on Barrett is SUPERB. I am going to delve into my sites and look for something similar from one of them now.

SRC:
EP Elephants v SWD Eagles (+3.5)

The Kings play their final Pro14 game Saturday and not sure if they are allowed to field a B-team? In that case the team that will to duty in the SRC should still be a lot weaker than next week. The eagles look to be a lot better than last year and also beat the Griquas in pre-season.

Struggling to find team news....If they do field a B-team in Pro14 the Cheethas minus must surely be grabbed quickly but for now I am happy with the best plus for the Eagles

Here are my plays for the weekend. Had a good weekend last time out so here it goes.
Super rugby
Hurricanes vs Sunwolves
*Try before 14.59 min 8 unit play. (not sure what the odds will be)
*Canes to win to Nil half unit
Stormers vs Rebels
* Stormers -13.5 2 units
* Stormers to win 1-10 2 units (Bit of a cover bet, will have 3 units in play)
Red vs Lions
* Lions -12.5 5 units
Blues vs Jaguares
*Jaguares +9.5
*Jaguares to win 1 units ( Been on form last few games out)
Brumbies vs Crusaders
*Crusaders - 15.5 5 unit
Bulls vs Highlanders
*Bulls +4.5 2 units
*Bulls to win 2 units
*Bulls HT lead 5 units
* Bulls try before 14:59 3 units (sporting bet) odds not out yet

Cettas wrote: SRC:
EP Elephants v SWD Eagles (+3.5)

The Kings play their final Pro14 game Saturday and not sure if they are allowed to field a B-team? In that case the team that will to duty in the SRC should still be a lot weaker than next week. The eagles look to be a lot better than last year and also beat the Griquas in pre-season.

Struggling to find team news....If they do field a B-team in Pro14 the Cheethas minus must surely be grabbed quickly but for now I am happy with the best plus for the Eagles

Agree 100%

Leicester - 6.5 on Friday versus Newcastle looks a very decent bet...

Great spot on the SWD / EP / Cheetahs weekend.

Kings twitter been very focal the last week about their last weekend in the competition etc etc so I don't think we will see a weakened team and the Cheetahs will look to build momentum. Agree with the sentiments on SWD and saw now EP cancelled a warm-up game against them so things aren't well there.

Additionally, looking to the Griffons, they smacked the Leopards away last week and play at home against the Cheetahs. WP was the only one of the "big teams" to win last week when they put 50 past EP away.

Have taken
Cheetahs -17.5
SWD 13/10 for the win
Griffons +7.5

and into an acca for 7/1.

Thrasher6 wrote: Leicester - 6.5 on Friday versus Newcastle looks a very decent bet...

Agreed, it was -5 at Betway earlier today, kicking myself for not getting on.

Got some -7 at evens after teams had been announced, see its out to -8 / -9 now.

Leicester at home with strong pack and Tuilagi and Toomua in midfield, should hold too many guns for the Falcons

Brad Breath wrote:

Thrasher6 wrote: Leicester - 6.5 on Friday versus Newcastle looks a very decent bet...

Agreed, it was -5 at Betway earlier today, kicking myself for not getting on.

Got some -7 at evens after teams had been announced, see its out to -8 / -9 now.

Leicester at home with strong pack and Tuilagi and Toomua in midfield, should hold too many guns for the Falcons

Agree on Tigers having a strong squad and should win that one (took Tigers @1.50 early in the week) but idf the H reaches 10, I might take some Falcons H as the team is strong, this is almost a quarter final for the final spot for play offs.
Shame the forecast is rain all day long as I was planing to go with overs on the game - will wait for the cut and update on forecast before making any move.

Rebels to score a penalty before 35”00 @ 1.86 seems like a good value on the Stormers game tomorrow

Under 56.5 points in Stormers vs Rebels. 5 units, all the chips are in. Currently in Newlands, very wet underfoot and although no rain expected tomorrow I think it’ll be a close encounter

bradie82 wrote: Rebels to score a penalty before 35”00 @ 1.86 seems like a good value on the Stormers game tomorrow

I agree @Bradie82 I like this one, its unlikely that the rebels will score many tries, in wet conditions players usually take the safety of the kick

Hurricanes vs Sunwolves

Nz Met service is now predicting no rain during the game but I'm still unsure of the massive line on offer after last weeks Crusaders game and the Hurricanes coming off the bye round.

Having compared odds between NZ Tab & Bet365 this is what I've come up with.

10 minute margin Hurricanes 6+ 1.5u @ $1.90 Bet365
Beauden Barrett to score a try anytime 1.5u @ $1.85 Tab
Ben Lam to score two or more tries 1.5u @ $2.33 Bet365

Value bets
Ben Lam first try 0.5u @ $7 Bet365
Ben Lam to score 3 or more tries 0.5u @ $8 Tab

Edit-I also think the highest scoring half will be the second but @ $1.60 at both sites, its not enough for me.

RuggaBugga wrote: Back to the Rugga
Canes v Wolves
BetX have Wolves +41.5 at even money in their Rugby Specials. That looks very tasty. We are getting such inflated lines due to the massive 83-17 win in Tokyo last year. As Hanrick mentioned, Aso at 12 does not inspire confidence and the Sunwolves have points in them. Been very impressed with Lappies, the Wolves will know how that embarrassment last year felt and expect them to put in a far better performance.
The Canes also have a massive match next weekend at home against the Lions so expect the bench to get a full run. Canes just need the bonus point win, makes no difference if they win by 28 or 48 ... 41.5 is just too high and pretty close to golden

Have to agree the third choice half back is starting and the third choice fist five is on the bench. Wellington will want to start strong and put the game away early after that they will cruise. With that in mind I like Wellington -19.5 HT and Ill look for a good Sunwolves + in game ill be comfortable with anything in the 50's.

Guys thoughts on this ?

Pen Converted Before 45 Mins 30 Secs in the 1st match?

Canes will def go for the tries but if its tight in the 1st half, Wolves will go for all the points they can....or not?

Brent Graham wrote:

Matador wrote: Guys thoughts on this ?

Pen Converted Before 45 Mins 30 Secs in the 1st match?

Canes will def go for the tries but if its tight in the 1st half, Wolves will go for all the points they can....or not?

It would depend on the price for me. The Sunwolves would need to get that shot at goal before the Hurricanes get 3 scores ahead otherwise they will kick for the corner - assuming 9/10 the pair I think it is about right

Have taken some Hurricanes over 26.5 1st half points, fancy the quick start and just hate half time handicaps although like the -19.5

It's those crap 5/6 prices they give us now.

Thanks for your thoughts Brent

First match, quite heavily invested in Canes - 38.5. Will keep an eye on points lines throughout, but nothing else really appealing to me pre match.

Second match, all over Rebels +14.5 and Stormers under 35.5 full time points.

Have taken Sunwolves over 1.5 tries at 5/6 and will look for a plus over over 50 in running.

2nd game I have taken under 56.5 points at 0.87/1 and Rebels under 21.5 points at 0.89/1

Can't watch today so my main bet as follows:

Canes -34.5
Stormers -6.5

Double @ 12/10

Then additional smaller interest on 1st tryscorers:

Game 1 = Aso @ 10/1
Game 2 = de Allende @ 14/1

I made the mistake of not reading everyone's thoughts and went with Sunwolves+19.5 HT last night.

My reasoning was that the Hurricanes team picked for today don't look that great but they've got the players to destroy the Sunwolves if the game becomes more loose which may happen in the second half.

Reading the comments here I would have stayed out of the game completely.

I been hiding in my cave , but really wanted to get on the Wolves after expecting a fast Canes start , now I'm really confused cause whatever plus I take will prob get beat , going to wait till the break.

Ruan Fourie wrote: I made the mistake of not reading everyone's thoughts and went with Sunwolves+19.5 HT last night.

My reasoning was that the Hurricanes team picked for today don't look that great but they've got the players to destroy the Sunwolves if the game becomes more loose which may happen in the second half.

Reading the comments here I would have stayed out of the game completely.

Nice!
Just read mine Ruan. The lone wolf

Think the Canes will come good in the 2nd half. Sunwolves traditionally tire/run out of steam after the first 40

slaterj wrote: Think the Canes will come good in the 2nd half. Sunwolves traditionally tire/run out of steam after the first 40

agree, i think anyone on Canes cap between the opening 38.5 and the 41.5 by kick-off shouldn't panic too much. 4 or 5 unanswered tries and it's there.

southpaw wrote:

slaterj wrote: Think the Canes will come good in the 2nd half. Sunwolves traditionally tire/run out of steam after the first 40

agree, i think anyone on Canes cap between the opening 38.5 and the 41.5 by kick-off shouldn't panic too much. 4 or 5 unanswered tries and it's there.

will keep the powder dry , agree , cane's could score two quick tries and then you're sweating if you're on the plus.

southpaw wrote:

slaterj wrote: Think the Canes will come good in the 2nd half. Sunwolves traditionally tire/run out of steam after the first 40

agree, i think anyone on Canes cap between the opening 38.5 and the 41.5 by kick-off shouldn't panic too much. 4 or 5 unanswered tries and it's there.

I hope so. I got -40.5 on bet365 last night and in play at HT the spread is at 34.5 and has jumped up by two which was -32 as the HT whistle went. Think the bookies already know what's coming next

Fckn tmo's are trying their best to screw this up...

This TMO is a DISGRACE. How can that be a foul on Savea?

game gone to shit , tmo's watching a different game and Nutbrown , as I've said before is simply retarded and should't be allowed near a whistle.

felt the floodgates would open after HT and had that ridiculous call not been made by TMO would have been 33-10 with 30min to play and think it would have been a big scoreline.

There really does need to be review of officials this season. Maybe need a blacklist of refs and TMO's that someone posts each week on this thread so punters can tread with caution.

No bet in the end , but Wolves plus on all front's arrives smoking a cigar , also like Hanrick's under tonight on both points and Rebel points.

coil wrote: No bet in the end , but Wolves plus on all front's arrives smoking a cigar , also like Hanrick's under tonight on both points and Rebel points.

Afternoon game Coil. 15:05 kickoff

what is the weather like in Cape Town does anyone know? I know it had been pretty dreadful this week but it looks to have cleared up a little. Very tempted on under 56.5 points!

coil wrote: game gone to shit , tmo's watching a different game and Nutbrown , as I've said before is simply retarded and should't be allowed near a whistle.

Add Ben O'Keefe in the next game. Loves giving millions of penalties so he's "in" the game. I will be going unders with him refereeing !!

No comment on that Canes v Sunwolves game. Had Canes -40.5 and stopped watching after 60 minutes. Easy to blame Referee's/TMO's but some of the calls were extremely strange.

And i'm not having anyone telling me that the Sunwolves have suddenly become a good team overnight either. I feel as though after playing the Lions, Saders and Canes this season and watching all of these games myself none of these teams played at 100% and if they had it would be a different story

shergar86 wrote: what is the weather like in Cape Town does anyone know? I know it had been pretty dreadful this week but it looks to have cleared up a little. Very tempted on under 56.5 points!

Just overcast at the mo.That Newlands area has it's own weather pattern sometimes.
www.yr.no/place/south_africa/Western_Cape/Newlands/long.html

southpaw wrote: felt the floodgates would open after HT and had that ridiculous call not been made by TMO would have been 33-10 with 30min to play and think it would have been a big scoreline.

There really does need to be review of officials this season. Maybe need a blacklist of refs and TMO's that someone posts each week on this thread so punters can tread with caution.

Was a pathetic call by the TMO. Ardie had him by the shoulder and never touched his neck. Blame must also go to Jamie Nutbrown, as he should just haved over ruled the clown. I am 100% sure Jaco Peyper would have over ruled him. Have seen him over rule TMO's a few times before.

hanrick wrote: Have taken Sunwolves over 1.5 tries at 5/6 and will look for a plus over over 50 in running.

2nd game I have taken under 56.5 points at 0.87/1 and Rebels under 21.5 points at 0.89/1

Have added Stormers to win and under 60.5 points at 0.84/1 with Betway.

Smalls on Stormers -13.5 at evens, the weak rebels team convinced me to side with the stormers. Low confidence given stormers haven't shown an awful lot however they have performed okay at home.

Free money on under 56.5 in Stormers vs Rebels. Showers currently in Newlands

Adding under 7.5 tries to that. Big play

Managed to get a bit of Ospreys +3 vs Cardiff Blues

Following team announcements they are now 2 or 3 point favourites with most books.

If you can find any plus get on, Ospreys full strength, Blues effectively a B team with 13 changes

Nice one Bad Breath

WSB still have Ospreys at 14/10

Have spread my legs like a Ukranian women of the night , under at 56.5 and under Rebels at 21.5 , with you Hanrick !! (B)

coil wrote: Have spread my legs like a Ukranian women of the night , under at 56.5 and under Rebels at 21.5 , with you Hanrick !! (B)

Joining the Under 56.5 train

I've gone with under 7.5 tries.

RuggaBugga wrote:

coil wrote: Have spread my legs like a Ukranian women of the night , under at 56.5 and under Rebels at 21.5 , with you Hanrick !! (B)

Joining the Under 56.5 train

I'm with you guys too. Surely the combination of the weather and Ben O'Keefe will mean penalties instead of tries. We can't lose