Super Rugby Week 12, Pro 14 + other Rugby

Brent Graham wrote: GGGaming go -14.5 Scarlets at 1/1 and -10.5 Munster (v Edinburgh) also at 1/1

I am not sure whether to climb in or wait to see if anyone comes out lower in the Cheetahs game?

In Europe 3 books have come out at -14 Scarlets.

However Betfred have them at -12, which I have taken a chunk of.

Looked at the long range weather forecast which suggests it will be fine & dry, which suits the Scarlets offloading game. Cheetahs haven't impressed me in recent weeks and I can't see them staying within 3 scores, even though it's a knock out game.

What an incredible punting weekend lads! And thats exactly why I love this forum - most of the posts shared echoed what I was thinking regarding a specific Super Rugby game and gave me the confidence to climb in and others highlighted markets I hadn't even thought of.

Then of course there was some calls on topics I have little knowledge of such as Pierebal with the SWD play, a nice few tips on the Northern stuff and The BUGGA who was in vintage form with the Sevens which all helped to make it a good sports betting weekend a GREAT one.

As Bradie put it so well: Golden plays from a group of platinum sports punters (B)

Onto this weekend:

Some interesting games indeed.
Jags flying at the moment and I am not yet so sure exactly where the Chiefs fit in to the pecking order.
Rebels back from a rather poor tour but Saders have been stuck in fourth gear of late.
Canes also not firing on all cylinders and the question is whether we will see the first half version of the Lions or the 2nd half version.
Tahs v Blues - Crap v crap
Stormers v Bulls should be huge. Stormers clearly a different side when at Newlands but jeez the Bulls played almost the perfect game against the Highlanders and are a team on the up.
Sharks have been mostly terrible and Highlanders will be looking to complete a solid tour of the Republic.

Following Brad on the Scarlets -12 @1.91
Cheetahs have been playing for 14 months in a row – S18, Currie Cup and the Guinness Pro14.
I watched the game on Saturday and I ve seen players without energy.

Caps are out on the S15 – Brent you are ready to open your own bookmaker company, all your caps matching, more or less, the ones below

Chiefs -13.5 v Jaguares
Rebels +14.5 v Crusaders
Hurricanes -13.5 v Lions
Waratahs -5.5 v Blues
Stormers -1.5 v Bulls
Sharks +5.5 v Highlanders

bradie82 wrote: Following Brad on the Scarlets -12 @1.91
Cheetahs have been playing for 14 months in a row – S18, Currie Cup and the Guinness Pro14.
I watched the game on Saturday and I ve seen players without energy.

Caps are out on the S15 – Brent you are ready to open your own bookmaker company, all your caps matching, more or less, the ones below

Chiefs -13.5 v Jaguares
Rebels +14.5 v Crusaders
Hurricanes -13.5 v Lions
Waratahs -5.5 v Blues
Stormers -1.5 v Bulls
Sharks +5.5 v Highlanders

Early call on the following
Jaguares on the + ( been playing great rugby)
Bulls on the + and for a win (they got robbed against Highlanders, will come to Newlands with a bang)
Highlanders op the - (Sharks haven't impress me)

Not sure how the Landers can be -5.5, massive value

The Bulls were brilliant and the Landers defence was superb. Sharks wont create as many scoring opportunities while the Landers will take more of theirs. Landers -5.5 is a pearler

some early plays for me this morning:

Scarlets -14 looks very tasty. Considering Scarlets at home against any big European team would be around -6/7, -14 against an absolutely shattered Cheethas team who will again struggle in overseas conditions looks like a gem.

Stormers on the board looks a solid punt as well. Yes, Bulls are firing and JM has turned them into a force to be reckoned with but the Stormers at home are a different animal and don’t see them losing this one.

A more tentative play on the Jags +, purely based on the form

Leaning towards landers on the minus against sharks but haven’t pulled the trigger yet

Early plays for me:

Scarletts -14.5. This is a big cap for a knock out game but Cheetahs have nothing left in the tank after playing rugby for 14 months non stop. 1 unit.

Highlanders -5.5. Bookies have got this horribly wrong as the travel factor is less significant as it's the landers second tour game. I expect the line to move out to 8.5. 3 units.

Lions +13.5. Lions will be hungry after their poor showing on the weekend. The Lions are the fittest SA team and they can't afford anymore poor performances. 2 units.

Eyeing out Jags +13.5, Rebels +15.5 and Stormers on the board but no strike as of yet.

surely Saders -14 or 15 is the standout??

Should have destroyed Brumbies had it not been for being dragged into slow game by Australians. Rebels have had a long trip back from SA, don't look a side who sees out the full 80min,

Canes put 50 past them in Melbourne in their only game against NZ sides so far. I can see Saders doing similar.

Saders on best minus my early call.

I like the motivation behind that Southpaw. That does look tasty.

I know the Blues are the most unpredictable side in the comp but it's great value to see Blues on the board at 3.2. NZ sides haven't lost to Aus sides in 36 games. The Tahs aren't a powerhouse at all. Small nibble at Blues @ 3.2.

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: I like the motivation behind that Southpaw. That does look tasty.

I know the Blues are the most unpredictable side in the comp but it's great value to see Blues on the board at 3.2. NZ sides haven't lost to Aus sides in 36 games. The Tahs aren't a powerhouse at all. Small nibble at Blues @ 3.2.

Hi TOS - Where did you find the odds on Blues?. Best I can find is 18/10

Betray has Blues @ 3.22

Betway has Blues @ 3.22

southpaw wrote: surely Saders -14 or 15 is the standout??

Should have destroyed Brumbies had it not been for being dragged into slow game by Australians. Rebels have had a long trip back from SA, don't look a side who sees out the full 80min,

Canes put 50 past them in Melbourne in their only game against NZ sides so far. I can see Saders doing similar.

Saders on best minus my early call.

I agree, especially as Mo'unga and Goodhue are all but certain to return from injury.

Mo'unga has been sorely missed, for me he's a different class to Hunt and Delany who have been starting at 10 recently.

Balancing that out to an extent is the fact that Genia is expected to return for the Rebels.

I got burnt by the Saders failing to cover the minus vs Brumbies, so a moderate play on -14 for me

Couch Critic wrote: As Bradie put it so well: Golden plays from a group of platinum sports punters (B)

That is a great line!

Playabets go Scarlets -13.5 at 8/10 so split units at Playa and GG for effective 9/10 punt on -14 DNB ...

I am in the Bulls camp this weekend, they went on the rampage at the SharkTank so the Newlands factor wont be intimidating ...

Think Saders 2nd half cap could be worth a nibble but agree South, Saders should come good and the -14.5 definite value

Aviva A League - final tonight - Northampton v Exeter
2 teams have both been scoring loads this season and expecting the same tonight
Weather is good in Northampton with a bit of wind

Over 48.5 @ 1.83

bradie82 wrote: Aviva A League - final tonight - Northampton v Exeter
2 teams have both been scoring loads this season and expecting the same tonight
Weather is good in Northampton with a bit of wind

Over 48.5 @ 1.83

FT 31-21
A bit surprised Exeter lost that game and scored only 21 points but anytime Northampton was attacking, they managed score while Exeter spent almost 20 min on the North 22 without scoring much.
Anyway job done.

On the top 14, few info that could be relevant.

Brive v Bordeaux – Brive is relegated, Bordeaux does not play anything – I can see a home win for their last game in top14 – could end up in a high scoring
Castres v Oyonnax – must win for both side – Castres to keep their spot for the quarter final, Oyonnax to stay in the top 14 and avoid a play off.
Clermont v Toulouse[/b] – Toulouse has a small chance to go directly to the semi-final but they would need a bonus try win and hope for Racing winning without it – chances are very low and Clermont will want to satisfy their crowd at least once this season . Will wait for try and point cut on this one.
La Rochelle v Stade Francais – once again must win for both side – ASR to keep hope for a play-off spot, SF to stay in the top 14 but chances to get that spot are low for ASR. Will wait for try cut on this game.
Lyon v Montpellier – There are loads of rumours that Montpellier will bring a squad without their key players in order to rest them as they are already qualified for the semi-finals. But they won’t play until the 25/26th of May so not sure they will rotate that much. On the other hand Lyon needs a win to secure their first Champions Cup spot. Will wait for more info.
Pau v Toulon – the hardest game to call this week end. Toulon can still get a semi-final spot if Racing and Toulouse are losing (very low chances) while Pau absolutely needs a win for a play-off spot. Toulon is underdog which I don’t fully understand – Pau is in a bad run while Toulon is on fire and without Slade and Armitage, Pau is not that strong and I can see them losing everything in few weeks (semi-final and play-off spot). RCT would have been my early call yesterday but the loss of Isa is a massive blow as he’s been amazing the past few weeks.
Racing v Agen – Agen players have been partying loads since they managed to secure their place in top14 for next season. Racing needs a win, a bonus try if possible but not sure what will be the squad as they’re playing Leinster the following week. Massive blow for them with the injury of Machenaud, the best scrum half in France this season, who will be out until 2019. This game will be played in Vannes, not in the U Arena but if the weather is good, massive over in perspective I reckon.

One thing to add. Oyonnax and Stade Francais might not be able to bring the best squad for the last game. The reason is that in France, you need a minimum of JIFF (players that have been trained in France in an academy for 3 years at least)on average during the season which both team did not respect.
If they don’t bring JIFF players on the last game, the could face a 2 points sanction on next season so this is to be kept in mind.

Will keep you updated once I get more info.

Ive taken an early win trebble with hollywood, and i must say, it seems like easy money...
Chiefs/crusaders/highlanders just a shade under 1/1

Don’t usually do these kind of bets, thought this looked alright though

Saders outright
Scarlets outright
Lions +23.5
Blues +14.5

2 units @ 1.9 (BetXChange)

Is it only me??? Thinking that if the Blues get one or two early balls to stick, they can actualy run riot over the Tahs.... I know they are not the most reliable team, but i cant help thinking about their previous games, so many oppertunities created, but some how always knocking the ball or missing the pass. If they can get a early ball to stick, and they get the 1st try, i can see them winning by 15... with the players they have, they cant be as bad as their recent results.
Call me crazy.... im having a decent 4units play on the Blues outright, and a 6units on the cap just to cover...

I am in the Tahs camp

Tahs off a bye
2017 – Beat Rebels 50-23
2016 – Lost Brumbies 26-20
2015 – Beat Reds 23-5
2014 – Beat Lions 41-13
2013 – Beat Chiefs 25-20

Some pretty impressive results when rested barring the Brumbies loss in 2016.
Tahs were thrashed 29-0 by the Lions at home last time out and they will have had 2 weeks of hearing that along with the fact that Aus teams are on a 36 game losing streak against NZ. Throw in the return of Izzy Folau and the Blues losing player 19 to the sick bay in Josh Goodhue ... its all Tah's for me.

Super Rugby Round 12 Shouts:

Rebels v Crusaders (-14)
Hurricanes (-14) v Lions
Waratahs (-6) v Blues
Stormers v Bulls (+1)
Sharks (+5) v Highlanders

Feeling most confident on Hurricanes and Tahs covering here. Hoping that the Sharks and Tahs are fresh and raring to go following their bye weeks and Tahs in particular after their dismal pointless showing against the Lions at home last time out. Probably will come back to bite me but the Blues are a complete mess at the moment and just cannot see them staying within the cap at all

Quite like the look of the Crusaders team,

Crusaders: 15 David Havili, 14 Seta Tamanivalu, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 George Bridge, 10 Richie Mo'unga, 9 Mitchell Drummond, 8 Jordan Taufua, 7 Matt Todd, 6 Pete Samu, 5 Sam Whitelock (c), 4 Scott Barrett, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Makalio, 1 Wyatt Crockett
Replacements: 16 Codie Taylor, 17 Harry Allan, 18 Michael Alaalatoa, 19 Mitchell Dunshea, 20 Heiden Bedwell-Curtis, 21 Bryn Hall, 22 Mitch Hunt, 23 Manasa Mataele

yep i'm still quite confident the Saders minus is the standout for me of a weekend of tricky looking caps.

Will be interesting to see the teams picked for the last round of the Aviva. As all semifinalist will have a week off to prepare seeing as none will be involved in the Champions Cup final. Gloucester will play in the final of the Challenge Cup next week.

Exeter (1) & Saracens (2) are assured of home semi-finals. Exeter play Harlequins (10) away, Saracens play Gloucester (6) at home. Wasps (3) play at Newcastle (4). Newcastle need at least a bonus point to be certain that Leicester (5) can not overhaul them with a bonus point away win against Sale (7).

Log:
www.planetrugby.com/tournament/aviva-premiership/tables/

Fixtures:
www.planetrugby.com/tournament/aviva-premiership/fixtures/

Cettas wrote: Will be interesting to see the teams picked for the last round of the Aviva. As all semifinalist will have a week off to prepare seeing as none will be involved in the Champions Cup final. Gloucester will play in the final of the Challenge Cup next week.

Exeter (1) & Saracens (2) are assured of home semi-finals. Exeter play Harlequins (10) away, Saracens play Gloucester (6) at home. Wasps (3) play at Newcastle (4). Newcastle need at least a bonus point to be certain that Leicester (5) can not overhaul them with a bonus point away win against Sale (7).

Log:
www.planetrugby.com/tournament/aviva-premiership/tables/

Fixtures:
www.planetrugby.com/tournament/aviva-premiership/fixtures/

I would normally only see massive over on each game - this should be a sunny and warm in the UK (yes yes that does happen) and the last round of Aviva is normally ending with high scoring.
However, this year is quite different with Sale and Gloucester fighting for the last Champions Cup spot, Leicester being still in the race for the last semi final spot and Newcastle and Wasps fighting for either a semi-final and/or the third place.
This means Newcastle v Wasps, Sale v Leicester and Saracens v Gloucester games could be very close game with a low scoring ( which I would not considerate in normal times) but the three other ones, I would consider a high scoring depending on the cut – I have Bath in mind cause they could technically (might be wrong) get qualified for next season Champions cup if Gloucester and Sale are both losing without a bonus point.
I will provide more input later on this week

bradie82 wrote:

Cettas wrote: Will be interesting to see the teams picked for the last round of the Aviva. As all semifinalist will have a week off to prepare seeing as none will be involved in the Champions Cup final. Gloucester will play in the final of the Challenge Cup next week.

Exeter (1) & Saracens (2) are assured of home semi-finals. Exeter play Harlequins (10) away, Saracens play Gloucester (6) at home. Wasps (3) play at Newcastle (4). Newcastle need at least a bonus point to be certain that Leicester (5) can not overhaul them with a bonus point away win against Sale (7).

Log:
www.planetrugby.com/tournament/aviva-premiership/tables/

Fixtures:
www.planetrugby.com/tournament/aviva-premiership/fixtures/

I would normally only see massive over on each game - this should be a sunny and warm in the UK (yes yes that does happen) and the last round of Aviva is normally ending with high scoring.
However, this year is quite different with Sale and Gloucester fighting for the last Champions Cup spot, Leicester being still in the race for the last semi final spot and Newcastle and Wasps fighting for either a semi-final and/or the third place.
This means Newcastle v Wasps, Sale v Leicester and Saracens v Gloucester games could be very close game with a low scoring ( which I would not considerate in normal times) but the three other ones, I would consider a high scoring depending on the cut – I have Bath in mind cause they could technically (might be wrong) get qualified for next season Champions cup if Gloucester and Sale are both losing without a bonus point.
I will provide more input later on this week

Thanks Bradie.

Gloucester technically already qualified for the Champions Cup?
www.epcrugby.com/europeanrugbychampionsc...lification/index.php

As the other finalist in the Challenge Cup final (Cardiff) already qualified (seeing as the Cheetahs are not eligible) it means that even if Gloucester lose against Saracens and lose in the final of the Challenge Cup they have dibs on the last place in the Champions Cup.

That leaves the door open for Sale & Bath.

Cettas wrote: Thanks Bradie.

Gloucester technically already qualified for the Champions Cup?
www.epcrugby.com/europeanrugbychampionsc...lification/index.php

As the other finalist in the Challenge Cup final (Cardiff) already qualified (seeing as the Cheetahs are not eligible) it means that even if Gloucester lose against Saracens and lose in the final of the Challenge Cup they have dibs on the last place in the Champions Cup.

That leaves the door open for Sale & Bath.

That is correct
I totally forgot that point.
The funny thing is that Pau could be qualified for the Champions Cup if Gloucester qualified through the Aviva as Newcastle and Cardiff already qualified.
Therefore Gloucester will probably rest their key players this week end and target the Challenge Cup that they won 2 years ago and lost last year against Stade Francais. Could be an extra over in that Saracens v Gloucester then.

Bulls win is my 5 unit play for the week. In fact 4 units on the win 1 unit on - 6.5.

Completely aligned with the previous two previews. If the Bulls play like they did against the Highlanders l can't see the margin being less than 10.

Quick update on the top14
I had Toulon in mind but Ashton, Bastareaud, Nonu, Radradra, Escande, Lakafia, Vermeulen, Kruger, Attwood and Van der Merwe will all be rested so changed my mind and will go with Pau @ 1.80
I think the odd will melt quickly

On topic of the Aviva......last weekend means one thing for two matches and maybe three this weekend,,,,,

Two matches that are ripe for going over...
Bath v London Irish
Nothampton v Worcester

Both the above teams have nothing to play for but entertaining the crowd.....trust me there is a last weekend law....no physicality....lets enyoy the game...and have a few beers afterwards,,,,You score one...we'll score one

Harlequins v Exeter....this match 2 seasons ago ended up 86 points and I don't see any different here...

Things to think about. English rugby is very nicey nice.....no players here are going to get grief about their lack of defence.....you score...we'll score.....and we'll all have a beer afterwards

Slightly off topic, but for any UK based people I’ve got a tip in the Super League (Rugby League) for tonight...

St Helens -24 10/11
St Helens -34 5/2
St Helens -46 8/1

The thinking behind this is pretty simple. St Helens are top of the league, at home, and have won their last two games by 50 and 62, whereas Catalan are abysmal away from home, and lost 41-0 to Castleford recently on the road. Team seem fairly normal... expect a bloodbath!

Gents, SuperSport Challenge - there is money to be made.

Bookies out very late with the odds so they can't be sure.

Bet for this weekend, SWD v Border -12.5 @ 9/10 with WSB.

Border is absolutely awful and they got drubbed their first two game out. SWD at home & on form is really to good to pass up.

Agree!!!

Should be beers all over!

Pierrebal wrote: Gents, SuperSport Challenge - there is money to be made.

Bookies out very late with the odds so they can't be sure.

Bet for this weekend, SWD v Border -12.5 @ 9/10 with WSB.

Border is absolutely awful and they got drubbed their first two game out. SWD at home & on form is really to good to pass up.

WSB suspend the market

Its back up but has shortened to 8/10. If I hadn't put in my limit I would have climbed in again!

Taken down again.....Pathetic

Crusaders to score a penalty before 64”0
I know the Crusaders don’t kick that often but still – this is far far too high
Anybody agree on that or am I just too much in love with that type of bet?

Even the Rebels to score a penalty before 33”00 sounds value…