Cycling : Giro d Italia
- The Vann
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The Vann wrote: Nothing - at the right odds - appeals on Stage 12. I have noticed something odd in the Giro. It is the first Grand Tour in years where I have seen Sky repeatedly try and place a rider in the break. I have no idea what the plan is but have taken a unit on
Team competition Sky @ 35/10
Added a few units on Sky this morning when I heard Kangert was not well. Turns out he could not start and Chavez was last man home today by 5 minutes. Nothing in cycling is ever GOLDEN but anything around the 2/1 mark on Sky must be worth a stab.
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- Brent Graham
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- Couch Critic
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From GC:
Aru @ 29/1 - The Italian will want to tame the legend. Not looking great at present but Aru is the type of guy who can peak for one monumental effort (or I'm hoping he can). He will be offered a bit more freedom than Pinot, Poz etc.
Break:
Dom Brow (Dombrowski) @ 80/1
Hugh Carthy @ 100/1
Dupont @ 300/1
Reichenbach @ 300/1
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- The Vann
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Pinot @ 10/1
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- mackem
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Brent Graham wrote: Taken some Betencur at 200/1 GGGaming for tomorrow - betting just out and often some shifts
I was hoping he takes it easy and slips down GC today as Ive got Carlos down for Sunday
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- Couch Critic
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And then a feeling that Yates will find out how tough 20% is - Pozzi to beat him @ 15/10
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- The Vann
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Masnada @ 50/1
Pantano @ 75/1
Second decoder on the blink but fortunately the missus rates cycling above the royal wedding (B)
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- mackem
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Sunday, love this profile, Pantano, Hermans and Betancur my riders
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- Brent Graham
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The Vann wrote:
The Vann wrote: Nothing - at the right odds - appeals on Stage 12. I have noticed something odd in the Giro. It is the first Grand Tour in years where I have seen Sky repeatedly try and place a rider in the break. I have no idea what the plan is but have taken a unit on
Team competition Sky @ 35/10
Added a few units on Sky this morning when I heard Kangert was not well. Turns out he could not start and Chavez was last man home today by 5 minutes. Nothing in cycling is ever GOLDEN but anything around the 2/1 mark on Sky must be worth a stab.
Wish I had followed you here Vann - 7/10 now
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- The Vann
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Thanks - The books opened at 26/10 after the post and I had a rush of blood and find myself way over invested in a cycling bet. Hoping today's stage is break even between Sky and Astana. Sky should extend lead on Tuesday ITT and I will probably take a little Astana cover at hopefully over 2/1.Brent Graham wrote:
The Vann wrote:
The Vann wrote: Nothing - at the right odds - appeals on Stage 12. I have noticed something odd in the Giro. It is the first Grand Tour in years where I have seen Sky repeatedly try and place a rider in the break. I have no idea what the plan is but have taken a unit on
Team competition Sky @ 35/10
Added a few units on Sky this morning when I heard Kangert was not well. Turns out he could not start and Chavez was last man home today by 5 minutes. Nothing in cycling is ever GOLDEN but anything around the 2/1 mark on Sky must be worth a stab.
Wish I had followed you here Vann - 7/10 now
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- The Vann
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Beers on the break again for me
Masnada @ 49/1
Lutsenko @ 124/1
Roche @ 174/1
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- kt6747
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Igor Anton @ 100/1
Robert Gesink @ 25/1
Polonc @ 80/1
Roche @ 150/1
All for small
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Brambilla @ 38/1
Sander Armee @ 109/1
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- Brent Graham
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Genies 50/1
Reichenbach 80/1
Betancur 125/1 for me today - should be a great stage
Loved yesterday's climb, that was man on man racing - amazing last few km with gap between Froome and Yates almost constant
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- The Vann
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34.2km ITT Non-technical power course. If I was punting for a living it would have to be max units on Dumoulin @ 7/10. On 10 runs he may be ill one day or may have a technical but 8/10 times he wins by around 2/3sec per km.
The books have sadly improved their cycling knowledge by leaps and bounds in the last few years and nothing really stands out. We follow several cyclists and teams on twitter and word is that around 80% of riders will not be going full gas as tomorrow's stage starts straight up a mountain. The only H2H at over evens that caught my eye was Sanchez over Poels @ 12/10 - but is LL going to ride with the break probably going clear up the mountain tomorrow?
I have settled for a punt and a beer
Bennett over Lopez into Campenaerts over van Emden @ 5/4
and a beer on
Top 3 Froome @ 17/10
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- kt6747
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I have taken a small piece of an old fav for me in Tony Martin @ 19/1 and top 3 @ 2/1
I know he is not in best form but if he can produce any of the old Tony, he is in with a chance, but heavily weighted to Top 3.
Also think Tom tough to beat.
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- Brent Graham
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Surely the break sticks tomorrow? Battaglin 14/1 and Goncalves 25/1 for me
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- The Vann
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Top 3 Finish Pinot @ 13/2
Was going to finish the post there but noticed on my team sheet when crossing off Campenaerts, who has w/d, a reasonable one day racer so have taken
Stage 17 Win Debusschere @ 150/1
( Also have decided not to take any Astana cover on my Sky team bet )
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- Couch Critic
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Mostly flat means you need some speed to get into the break and then at the end you need enough power to get your nose ahead.
Ben Hermans @ 39/1 - his last chance in the race
Conti @ 71/1 - been on him a few times and this is the last shot
Polanc @ 79/1 - fast on the flat and enough power if the break is favourable
Lutsenko @ 109/1 - is hopefully going to have a go at getting into the break
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- The Vann
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Pantano @ 60/1
Schachmann @ 90/1
Mohoric @ 125/1
Lammertink @ 400/1
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- The Vann
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The Vann wrote: Noticed yesterday that every time Astana put a rider in the break Sky would follow. Think my Sky team bet is home so spending more beer than normal
Pantano @ 60/1
Schachmann @ 90/1
Mohoric @ 125/1
Lammertink @ 400/1
Missus just passed by - says Schachmann has breathing problems so joining Couch in the Conti last chance saloon
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Eternally grateful I place before posting on boards. One for the man of the house (B)The Vann wrote:
Missus just passed by - says Schachmann has breathing problems so joining Couch in the Conti last chance saloon
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- Brent Graham
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Lads that bit of weakness shown by Yates means the next 2 days are going to be brutal - it may be he just had bad legs today but he could also be on the verge of cracking
His team are going to be put under huge pressure from the gun tomorrow
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Jeez can't believe Yates blew today of all days! Agree BG - things are going to get hectic now.
Froome at 15/2 for me. Finding his climbing legs. Superman the biggest danger for the stage I feel.
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My 1st bet is Yates not to finish top 3 overall at 16/10 WSB - was it just a bad day yesterday? I think more likely a sign his condition is going the wrong way and I think there is every chance he is cracked and loses minutes
When he responded to Toms move yesterday he must have had everyone thinking he was still strong but when Tom followed Pozzo and Froome his condition was exposed.
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- The Vann
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I have packed the beers away and gone with a unit on
Yates @ 16/1 ( To be accurate 15.75/1 )
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I have taken the following for an interest:
Brambilla @ 50/1
Cherel @ 125/1
Montaguti @ 200/1
Quintana @ 300/1
And my big one for the day is Pozzivivo over Froome @ evens
Looking forward to the next 2 days. (B) (B)
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- Brent Graham
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Betencur/Oomen Woods/Dombrowski just over 12/10 Sunbet
Then added
Ciccone/Are and Pinot/Yates to get it to 10/1
Also some Froome outright at 12/1 Hollywood
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- Brent Graham
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Froome should win now, amazing ride, wish I had gone bigger
The 2 long shots in my acca trot up but at least one of the short odds on misses - typical
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- The Vann
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Well done Couch (B) and two good calls there Brent (B) (B) .
Can't say I'm pleased with the result today but at least my 13/2 on Pinot podium from two days ago now has a shot but, on the down side, Sky will now go into "protect Froome" mode and my Sky team bet could run into trouble.
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It was a gamble but even at the summit of the big climb it was unlikely to succeed but the cards fell his way and it was a brilliant and gutsy move - and I am not a Froome fan
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- The Vann
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Sorry - But I do not agree. Most teams signed the MPCC to promote clean cycling. Sky refused on the basis that they have a zero tolerance policy and therefor did not need to sign. Under the MPCC Froome would not be racing today. Froome personally and Sky are wrecking everything the rest of cycling are trying to do. The entire sport of road cycling is based on sponsorship as, unlike other sports, no TV money goes to the teams. Who wants to sponsor anything when you have a situation like this?Brent Graham wrote: Lots of talk about Froomes ride and comparisons to Landis in 2006 but for me this post sums it up nicely in the cycling news forum forum.cyclingnews.com/viewtopic.php?p=2266776#p2266776
It was a gamble but even at the summit of the big climb it was unlikely to succeed but the cards fell his way and it was a brilliant and gutsy move - and I am not a Froome fan
Is Froome clean? We follow over 40 current pro riders and all teams on twitter. Out of all those posts there was only one single post congratulating Froome and that came from team mate Geriant.
And how many times did you spot him using his inhaler today when he had to use it over 30 times in the Vuelta when Nibali was hunting him down?. Also noticed something odd. Froome has been releasing his STRAVA data to prove his clean claims - but this has stopped in the Giro - Why?
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I HATE the idea that certain individuals are cheating. When one has to wonder whether you will find out a month, a year or a few years later that an epic stage win or overall grand tour success is actually discredit due to doping leaves one sick at the state of the sport. But what to do as a supporter?? Become cynical everytime someone puts in a great ride? When Yates looks like he hardly drops a bead of sweat we all start wondering (he has had that astma issue)...
I for one can't watch the sport like that. Call me naive if you want but I have to put those things aside and try and enjoy the tactics, determination and heart I see different riders exhibit on a specific stage.
I am still rather "new" to intensely watching all 3 grand tours and yesterday was arguably the greatest heist I have witnessed in my time. I figured Froome would push and eventually be content with a stage win and be happy to leave the Giro with a podium, the queen stage and the Zonc. But alas he went all in and swung for the fences. He swung HARD and boy did he hit it out the park!
People say that Sky can only ride a boring style and that Froome piggy backs off having a fantastic team. Well yesterday the Sky train applied incredible pressure early but then Froome did it all by himself in the most aggressive and thrilling way there is. 80km Of solo riding up those slopes was something special.
Superman Lopez couldnt stay with him. Poz who looked great up until that point was blown out the water. Tom D could only settle into his rythym and drop more than 3mins. Pinot, with a team mate assisting him, could not pull CF back one inch.
Sky nailed their tactics to a tee, Froome delivered and monster ride and yes it might count for nothing in the record books a year or two grom now but at this moment I take my hat off to one of the best stages and best individual rides I've seen in a grand tour.
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- Brent Graham
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I guess the point I was making was that aside from the guts of trying the move there were certain things that fell in Froomes favour that made it an educated gamble
Yates dropped early, Pozzo bad day, Froome descended like a mad man (he actually took alot of his time on the downhill) while others slowed to wait for Reichenbach, the big one though was Lopez getting back to Dumo and Carapez, if he doesn't get back on the Carapez works and things could have been different. I also think Dumo is close to cooked at the moment
Having had an outright bet on Froome yesterday I am not complaining but this stage would be so much better set up if Froome was 40 seconds behind Dumo. Dumo does not have the team to make life uncomfortable for Froome and I don't think he has the legs either
I see this stage going to a strong rider not in GC contention as SKY will be happy to ride defensively and even Astana will be keen for bonus seconds to be swept up to protect White Jersey
Bets to follow
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Betancur 33/1 - tried to get in the break yesterday and then appeared to sit up when it failed - lost a lot of time and will be given leeway
Formolo 33/1 - my headliner, showed good legs yesterday but had to help a team mate, I think he could be a big runner today
Poels 45/1 - looks really strong, don't see him getting in the break today (Sky will send someone else and leave him with Froome) but if the early break is caught I could see him marking attacks and then you just never know - like Froome he has trained to peak in week 3 and he is looking very strong.
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The rider of the day and someone who has once again impressed me this whole Giro had been Reichenbach. I've been a big fan and once again yesterday he proved himself as one of the very best in the high mountains.
Lopez continues to be a tough one to call as his form seems to fluctuate from day to day and he even seems to have patches within a stage
Onto Stage 20:
Surely we must see a break. Sky will just look to control. FDJ and Sunweb dont have the power team and Movistar and Astana should be content with watching each other until later in the stage.
Again you need some speed on the flat to get into the break and then a diesel engin to stay away over the big slopes.
LL Sanchez @ 26/1
Betancur @ 40/1
De Marchi @ 57/1
Geniez @ 79/1
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- Brent Graham
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Tommy D looks like he could be fading slightly. I think he will try something on the penultimate climb and could pay the price
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- mackem
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I've put Nico Denz in, not sure what shape he is in but featured well in an earlier mountain stage and team still looking for a stage.
Third on my list is Vann's mate, Schachmann who is another breakaway contender and lastly I go with Betanucur, simply because I have to.
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- The Vann
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Stage 20
Sky will only be interested in protecting the pink jersey so a break has to have a shot
De Marchi @ 45/1
Masnada @ 55/1
Geniez @ 60/1
Lutsenko @ 225/1
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- mackem
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Enjoy lads, it's been fascinating viewing
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