Cycling : Giro d Italia
- The Vann
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Young Riders Classification
Teams have been reduced from 9 to 8 riders in Grand Tours. The field thus has 176 riders as opposed to previous years 198 riders. Stats from the last 3 years tell us that over 19% of riders do not finish the tour. With the smaller teams this should mean an increased work load and this figure could be higher this year. Lopez is the overwhelming favorite for this jersey at 2/10. My take on this is that statistically there is a 20% chance that he may not finish so I am going for
Win Oomen @ 9/1
Points Classification
Vivianni at 9/10 is in top form this year and Quickstep are fielding a team specifically to win this jersey. With the second favorite on offer at only 5/1 this is a No Bet for me.
King of the Mountains
With the smaller teams ( see above ) it is going to be more difficult to chase down breaks and this classification could be targeted and won by a non GC contender. I think Visconti at 11/1 ( winner in 2015 ) has a shot but I prefer the longer odds on
Win Geniez @ 33/1
Win Polanc @ 80/1
Overall Classification
Difficult to look past Froome and Dumoulin but at 15/10 and 2/1 not worth a punt. With the flat ITT riders like Chavez/Yates/Meintjies are going to struggle to build up enough time in the climbs to podium. Michael Wood at 29 years old has only been riding for 5 years. In his first 2 Grand Tours last year he finished 38th at the Giro and 7th at the Vuelta. He also came 2nd in Liege a few weeks ago so is carrying form. Carlos Betancur is one of the most talented riders around. He placed 5th at the Giro in 2013 and won the Young riders classification. Since then he has been both over weight and mentally away with the fairies. He has been handed the leadership of a weakened Moviestar outfit and, should he be only 80% fit, he is still good enough to compete.
Top 3 Wood @ 14/1
Top 10 Betancur @ 11/2
Teams Classification
With the smaller teams I am expecting a few breaks to stay away which means any team who puts 2 riders in a break could make up 10-20 minutes on a stage. I think this makes a punt here a little risky so
No Bet
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- The Vann
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This is a 10km ITT and is quite technical. It is not a pure power type course. Dennis is 2/5 to win and therefor not worth a punt. Have to go to the top 3 market to try and find our value. My pick is a rider who has been very positive on twitter since arriving in Israel and should run close over this course
Mullen @ 7/1 at BetXchange
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I will follow on Betancur for Top10
Then Pinot for the overall win @ 15/2
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- The Vann
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Amazingly - after 10km of a Grand Tour the books have switched favorites. I am having a little dig on
Froome over Dumoulin @ 16/10
Stage 2
Not going to spend big bucks this early on a stage but a beer for the watch. This is a short stage - 167km - and Sunweb will not chase a meaningless break with any real intent. I am not sure how many sprint teams are going to help Quickstep drag the overwhelming favorite - Viviani - to the line so my beer goes on the break at Sportingbet
Any rider other then 14 listed @ 6/1
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- mackem
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Instead of Giro I will have a nibble at GvA in Tour de Yorkshire Stage 4 at around 28/10
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- The Vann
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Bonifazio over Modolo @ evens
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- Brent Graham
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- kt6747
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For beer money as The Vann says. (B) (B)
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- mackem
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Got to think Wellens is a huge runner but I'd rather put the beer money on longer odds riders.
Betancur at around 33/1 and in case the GC guys get dragged along to the finish then Pinot at 16's.
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- The Vann
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One from the bunch and a wild guess should the break stay
Ulissi @ 13/2
De Marchi @ 150/1
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Also fancy Ulissi but just a touch short for me.
Giovanni Visconti @ 28/1
Matej Mohoric @ 33/1
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Break might have a better chance today as the time gaps appear but I am hoping for one last "sprint". Only a select few will duel it out. Sam Bennett might have enough strength in the legs to get over the humps near the end and then he should be favourite. I reckon he will be super keen for a sprint without Viviani to worry about. That said Modolo probably even stronger than him going up.
If the punchier boys make it tough then the likes of Wellens, Bettaglin, Goncalves, Schachmann and perhaps Stybar should be right in it.
Having a stab at:
Mohoric @ 22/1 - In reduced company he could be the man
Conti @ 29/1 - Another late attempt like yesterday
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- The Vann
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Brambilla @ 80/1 ( Not really GC but looked interested yesterday before the crash )
Chavez @ 90/1
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Onto the Volcano today gents!! I have been waiting for this one...
Problem - I REALLY fancy the top of the betting card at present. Froome a touch off his best and everyone gunning at trying to steal some time before he perhaps kicks into gear during the second half of the race. Pozzovivo has looked sublime. Yates is full of fire and has a great kick. Michael Woods has the legs for a climb and also good gas. Lopez wants some time back, Chavez showed in Stage 4 he is feeling sprightly and perhaps Aru will want to show he should not be forgotten.
Who to choose...?? (Will mull it over for an hour or so)
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- The Vann
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In his last Grand Tour Lopez started well and then faded. Hopefully he is not too damaged from being down twice.
Stage 6
Win Lopez @ 15/2
I don't expect this to land but the odds are just too long so a beer on
Betancur @ 60/1
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George Bennett @ 19/1 - Climbing legs of course and showed me enough yesterday to back him for a late surge for the line.
Outsider - Goncalves @ 61/1 & Pello Bilbao @ 71/1
The more I look at the stage the more I wish Sky would let Poels off the leash. Reckon he has both the climbing legs as well as being able to beat most climbers in a sprint.
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- Brent Graham
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Woods 16/1
Chavez 28/1
Polanc 80/1
Betancur 80/1
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- The Vann
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Correct me if I am wrong - but I make that 2 from 2 on Etna (B) (B) (B)Brent Graham wrote: Going to record todays stage but have to have an interest
Woods 16/1
Chavez 28/1
Polanc 80/1
Betancur 80/1
I cannot wait for Giro d Italia 2019
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- Brent Graham
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Great win Chavez, geez I was cursing when Yates attacked but it all worked out
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Haha when Yates made the break I was thinking BG must be sweating bullets right now... Touch of class from SY to do the right thing.
Unbelievable to see the form of Yates. It seemed effortless for him whilst the rest were in a world of hurt - even Superman. Nice to see Pinot still looking sprightly but Betancur was a worry.
I had this stage highlighted as a must watch and boy did it deliver! I just love it when the road goes up and teams have a proper go.
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- mackem
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Sitting out the flat stage Friday
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- The Vann
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Rider other than 15 listed @ 5/1
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- The Vann
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Treble
Wellens/Pantano
Woods/Dennis
Dumoulin/Froome @ 2/1 at Sunbet
and the stage beer goes to
Bennet @ 60/1 ( That would be George )
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Conti @ 28/1
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- mackem
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You seen the climbing to come on Sunday? marathon..!!
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- kt6747
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Bennet @ 66/1 (Vann selection)
Poels @ 100/1
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Pantano @ 40/1
De Marchi @ 50/1
Joe Dombrowski @ 60/1
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Also throwing in Formolo 22/1
Reichenbach 100
Geniez 100
Pantano 33/1
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- The Vann
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GC guys still pretty bunched with the 10-6-4 on the line worth going for so sticking with the peleton.
Pinot @ 8/1
Froome @ 33/1
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- The Vann
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De Marchi @ 35/1
Pedersen @ 60/1
Carthy @ 200/1
van Rensburg @ 200/1
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- mackem
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Mohoric, Tony Martin, Stybar my riders
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- The Vann
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Torres @ 300/1
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Conti @ 35/1
Mohoric @ 23/1
Ben Hermans @ 40/1
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Battaglin over Wellens
Woods over Formolo
Yates over Pinot at just over 1/1
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But I'm sticking with guys I feel just HAVE to get it right some time:
Ulissi @ 14/1
Conti @ 47/1
Brambilla @ 50/1
Ben Hermans @ 59/1
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Conti @ 33/1
Ciccone @ 50/1
Polanc @ 125/1
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- mackem
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Hermans for me on Wednesday, Betancur a complete roughie and want a GC man as well so Pinot for buttons.
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- The Vann
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Team competition Sky @ 35/10
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- Brent Graham
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Recorded yesterdays stage and watched the last 30km - a seriously exciting one and hopefully we get another today despite the flat profile
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- The Vann
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Viviani @ 35/20
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