Super Rugby Week 13 and other rugby

Taylor wrote: Canes 12 and under for me @2.60

Four of the last five games between these two have had this result. Expect the blues can do enough to hang around but probably never really look like winning. Rain could also help keep it lower scoring and therefore tighter

I'm with you on this one as well.

Two bets split evenly , plus 9.5 Blues and under at 46.5 total , the latter you can get higher now I see. Not too confident however.

Unlike many of you I can't see the Blues winning this game. I just don't know if the Hurricanes will beat the handicap if it's raining.

So I'll stay out of this one.

On the Under 47.5 at Sunnies, nice spot BG

Think Canes 1-12 is also a pearler

I will go against the crowd on that one as the cut are too low despite the rain and the history between the 2 teams

Over 2.5 tries HT @ 2.35
Over 0.5 try HT Blues @ 1.70
Over 1.5 tries HT Canes @ 2.20
Over 4.5 tries @ 1.62
Over 5.5 tries @ 2.25

Im with you Bradie82.

I am adding penalty before 11:45 @1/1
Try before 14:30 @ 5/6
All @WSB

Blues HT / Canes FT

9/2

This will be my first post, but think I've spotted value in the highest scoring half market. There were 6 Blues home derbies in 2016 and 2017 with 6/6 the 1st half highest scoring. In 2018 it's 1/2, with the Chiefs game being equal. This also landed on 6/6 away league derbies for the Canes in 2016 and 2017. This will be the Hurricanes first away game in 2018 against a NZ team, but landed on 2/3 away games. 3 units @ evens.

Welcome Eduard. There has been a trend with NZ derbies where the 1st half has been the higher scoring half.

My bets are Canes by 1 - 12 at 19/10 (placed earlier in the week) and Hurricanes to win and over 40.5 points at 1.09/1

RuggaBugga wrote: Blues HT / Canes FT

9/2

I like this RB, have followed you.

Appears I'm against the grain and have taken some Canes -8.

Canes by 10 and the Forum wins

Missed the start of the second half, why did peyper get replaced by williams??

shark prince wrote: Missed the start of the second half, why did peyper get replaced by williams??

He is feeling ill.

Managed to get Hurricanes-5.5 in the game. Go Hurricanes!

Grr ambushed by the weather reports , well played canes supporters

And THATS how the Canes roll...!! (B)

Dusted in Game 1 ...
Under 47.5 points alive somehow in the 78th minute. Only for that superb cross kick try to end game

Was initially on the Wolves plus throughout the week but beginning to garner some doubts now.. They also tend to play some of their worst stuff at home and while they may have targeted this game , the Red's will be well aware of that.

Tentatively and not quite so sure I'll be going the Wolves plus but for a lesser stake.

My best bet of the weekend is the Waratahs plus , granted the Crusaders will want to bounce back to the top of the NZ conference but I feel the Tah's will score a few points themselves and it could be another frustrating Crusaders win.

The Highlanders will want to bounce back, they were very poor in Durban. They will probably be good enough to win but the cap looks about right and will decide before the game what to do.

In Canberra the Brumbies are 4.5 point favourites , the rebels have been poor on the road and were very poor in 2017. Both are awful but I do feel the Brumbies should cover this cap.

I'm going to lean towards the Chiefs in Cape Town and will be looking to get involved in running.

Finally I do feel the Bulls will be very hard to beat at home , however with much vested in the Sharks to win the SA conference I will be hoping they snatch it, if they play like they played last week there's no reason why they shouldn't.

Cardiff vs Gloucester, tonight’s Challenge Cup Final

Personally I’m not convinced they have the right favourite here, with Glos 2 point favourites with most books.

Both teams play a similar “brand” in that they are comfortable with ball in hand anywhere on the pitch, but defensively I’d argue the Blues are superior and I think that could be the difference.

Its not comparing apples with apples - given they play in different leagues, have rested players in recent games, etc, but on recent form (the last 9 games) Cardiff have conceded an average of 17 points, whereas same stat for Gloucester is 30 points.

Cardiff have been working with defensive “guru” Shaun Edwards for a few months and I think they are now getting the results.

I expect Cardiff to have an edge at the breakdown, with two “7”s in Navidi and Jenkins on the flanks and Turnbull, a back rower, in the 2nd row.

They could however come under a bit of pressure at set piece, particularly the scrum.

Willing to take a chance on this however and back them to send coach Danny Wilson off with some silverware.

Blues +2.5 @ 1.91
Blues to win @ 2.30
Total Glos points Under 23.5 @ 1.83

Brad Breath wrote: Cardiff vs Gloucester, tonight’s Challenge Cup Final

Personally I’m not convinced they have the right favourite here, with Glos 2 point favourites with most books.

Both teams play a similar “brand” in that they are comfortable with ball in hand anywhere on the pitch, but defensively I’d argue the Blues are superior and I think that could be the difference.

Its not comparing apples with apples - given they play in different leagues, have rested players in recent games, etc, but on recent form (the last 9 games) Cardiff have conceded an average of 17 points, whereas same stat for Gloucester is 30 points.

Cardiff have been working with defensive “guru” Shaun Edwards for a few months and I think they are now getting the results.

I expect Cardiff to have an edge at the breakdown, with two “7”s in Navidi and Jenkins on the flanks and Turnbull, a back rower, in the 2nd row.

They could however come under a bit of pressure at set piece, particularly the scrum.

Willing to take a chance on this however and back them to send coach Danny Wilson off with some silverware.

Blues +2.5 @ 1.91
Blues to win @ 2.30
Total Glos points Under 23.5 @ 1.83

I very much agree and a good analysis....Cardiff have come on leaps and bounds and I can see them winning.

Well I’m on Gloucester to win and over 46.5 points with betfair at 11/4 think there just to strong . Also over 52 points at 2/1 think it could be open enough

I'm backing the Sunwolves to give a fair account of themselves tomorrow but deciding which market to target has taken some head scratching. Ended up most confident that they'll start well so main bet is over 13.5 first half points at 9/10.

Smaller play on a Sunwolves win at 2.56/1. These odds are too good to ignore.

I nailed my colours to the mast early on...that this would be a points fest and I am still convinced....both sides will contribute...61.5pts isn't that extreme. I'll be sleeping...but hope to wake up to a result!!

Waratahs under 20.5 points at 17/20

Crusaders -19 and over 60.5 points at 9/5

When you get up at 5 to do some live betting between the Sunwolves and the Reds of all teams and then end up losing two bets but have the nice surprise of seeing the Sunwolves humiliating the Reds. Worth it.

Highlanders to win and under 60.5 points at 1.09/1 with Betway

If the Waratahs win this game then I just don't know anymore.

coil wrote: Was initially on the Wolves plus throughout the week but beginning to garner some doubts now.. They also tend to play some of their worst stuff at home and while they may have targeted this game , the Red's will be well aware of that.

Tentatively and not quite so sure I'll be going the Wolves plus but for a lesser stake.

My best bet of the weekend is the Waratahs plus , granted the Crusaders will want to bounce back to the top of the NZ conference but I feel the Tah's will score a few points themselves and it could be another frustrating Crusaders win.

The Highlanders will want to bounce back, they were very poor in Durban. They will probably be good enough to win but the cap looks about right and will decide before the game what to do.

In Canberra the Brumbies are 4.5 point favourites , the rebels have been poor on the road and were very poor in 2017. Both are awful but I do feel the Brumbies should cover this cap.

I'm going to lean towards the Chiefs in Cape Town and will be looking to get involved in running.

Finally I do feel the Bulls will be very hard to beat at home , however with much vested in the Sharks to win the SA conference I will be hoping they snatch it, if they play like they played last week there's no reason why they shouldn't.

I got in from work at 530am, fell asleep and woke up two min before kick off of Tah's game , and missed the plus ...feeling gutted .

Ruan Fourie wrote: If the Waratahs win this game then I just don't know anymore.

I'm sure nearly all people on this forum would agree with you on that one.

Took some Crusaders -6 when they were 15-0 down

Bizarre game, just dull by Crusaders to keep kicking the ball back to Folau. Even if contestable he'll win 90% of the time

Taken a decent strike at Saders -2.5 @2.00 in play

Surely this isn't how the NZ winning streak against Aus teams ends

Never had a bet on Wolves and Tah's , had no real feel later games but can now feel the hole widening for me to fall into . I know the correct thing is to close shop and watch but I'm itching to have a bet , just hope it's not the dreaded bear trap.

Next up , I think the cap is well priced . If I had to have a bet possibly Lions plus and over 53.5 but just not sure .

Taylor wrote: Taken a decent strike at Saders -2.5 @2.00 in play

Surely this isn't how the NZ winning streak against Aus teams ends

Well it wasn't... think Saders should feel quite lucky. Hurting on that -2.5

Landers 1-12
Time of first penalty before 21"30

Taylor wrote:

Taylor wrote: Taken a decent strike at Saders -2.5 @2.00 in play

Surely this isn't how the NZ winning streak against Aus teams ends

Well it wasn't... think Saders should feel quite lucky. Hurting on that -2.5

That was so close.

Highlanders vs Lions it may be worth nibbling on Robbie Coetzee to score a try in the game.

Been trying to convince myself the whole week that the lions and Stormers are going to loose. I was not able to do so... Have Lions +6.5 and 1 to 12 and Stormers 1 to 12.

Been tied up and no bets so far this weekend but can finally watch a game and for an interest -

1st try
Rob Thompson 12/1
Kwagga Smith 20/1 ew

Afternoon SA games appeal more to me and will focus on those. Plus have 2 units riding on Racing @ 25/1 in Europe so that will be a game I won’t be missing.

I like the odds for over 7.5 tries (2.00) in the Highlanders game.

Plays this afternoon:

Bulls/Sharks over 49.5 pts @ 10/11 (main bet of day)

Brumbies penalty before 24:45
Chiefs penalty before 38:15
Sharks penalty before 21:30

treble @ 11/2

Bulls v Sharks
Over 2.5 tries HT @ 1.90

Late call, going Rebels plus , both awful but think Brumbies more awful

hanrick wrote:

RuggaBugga wrote: My bet of the weekend is the Highlanders -7.5 vs Lions

Lions without Marx which is a massive blow
Lions were lucky to score 2 of their tries against the Canes and the scoreline flattered them so we are benefiting from that in this handicap - should be closer to -12.5!
Landers were poor against the Sharks but should be happy with 1 win in SA and will come back firing.
Lions 4th match on tour
Dont rate Swys as a coach
Landers will cut Lions to shreds this weekend

Landers -7.5 is GOLDEN

For some reason I thought this handicap was 11.5 and I would have been happy to take the Landers -11.5. All over the - 7.5

For all the Punters especially RuggaBugga and Hanrick who picked the Highlanders to win by more than 7.5 points a big thank you as I based all my bets in this game around this result and got them all (B) (B)

Have to practice my Super Rugby as footie finishes tomorrow.
Rebels + 5.5 @ 12/10

Watching the Brumbies hurts my eyes

I’m really strong on this bet, Chiefs will take points where they can against a Stormers side who have tails up.

5 units Chiefs penalty before 38:15min @ 10/11

What an absolutely crazy morning of Super Rugby! Shocking morning for the Aussie sides. That brumbies performance was atrocious

slaterj wrote: What an absolutely crazy morning of Super Rugby! Shocking morning for the Aussie sides. That brumbies performance was atrocious

Had Brumbies -1.5 in play and 5mins before half time it looked safe as. That second half was atrocious alright

southpaw wrote: I’m really strong on this bet, Chiefs will take points where they can against a Stormers side who have tails up.

5 units Chiefs penalty before 38:15min @ 10/11

100% with you on this SP, would have won in each of their last 5 games